Gujarat elections 2017 - facts & future

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is India’s most successful politician of the 21st century did not have a challenger, either from within the party or outside it. Barring the few stubborn states he had smashed the opposition in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Apart from hiccups in Delhi and Bihar, the prime minister was on a one-man charm offensive as he stormed state after state. The most stunning were the victories in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Assam, in the first half of 2017. Now, he has retained Gujarat and won Himachal Pradesh, taking the NDA kitty to 19 states.

• In Gujarat, Modi has been challenged by Rahul Gandhi, the politician whom the BJP ridiculed most.
• In narrow defeat, Rahul has become the principal challenger to Modi. It is a challenge which will be repeated in different parts of the country through the next 18 months - the two parties face off in eight states, culminating in 2019 General Elections.
• In Gujarat, Rahul took on the Modi magic, exploiting the frustrations and grievances. While Modi sweated in over 40 campaigns and 90 road shows, Rahul, in the company of 3 young turks, was at ease engaging people and pointing out Modi's all round failures. Rural Saurashtra responded.
• In Gujarat, BJP won 99/80 against Congress with 3 others. Total 182.
  (BJP 115, Congress 61, Others 6 in the outgoing Assembly)
• It is neither a victory for BJP, nor is a defeat for the Congress. While tense Modi stands diminished, confident Rahul stood taller.
• Congress party’s vote percentage when compared with the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 increased from 33.5% to 41.5%, whereas that of the BJP dropped from 60% to 49%.
• In 16 seats, the Congress lost by a margin of less than 3,000 votes. 
• If the four major cities of Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot are kept out, Congress won 71 seats against the BJP’s 53.
• BJP was completely wiped out in 5 of 33 districts in Gujarat.
• It was a huge gambit for Rahul as he took on Modi directly in Gujarat, where the prime minister has a cult following.
• Even in defeat, Rahul Gandhi has got an enhanced stature, and the Congress has got a morale booster as it prepares to take on the BJP in a direct contest in the upcoming assembly elections.
• Now the BJP has to stop dreaming about a Congress-mukt Bharat.
• Gujarat is a reminder to Rahul Gandhi of the main problem facing the Congress - a weak organisation and an uninspiring state leadership. 
• Modi has a credibility problem. What ever he says, his forces, his organisation repeats that. But the country is not listening to it - said Rahul Gandhi, in his first comments on the poll verdict.
• BJP trolls in social media has become much weaker with Modi's autocratic tendencies and failures whereas Congress became much stronger and aggressive.
• “The tide is turning for the prime minister and the BJP. Modiji’s home state has made this clear. The anger and dissatisfaction on the ground was so palpable,” said Mahila Congress president Sushmita Dev, MP.

Modi saddled with cosmetic successes and all round failures - demonetisation's bad effects still lingering, badly rolled out GST unlikely to produce any worthwhile success in next 18 months, agrarian distress, unemployment, inflation, oil prices rising, economic indices worse than 2014, sinking PSU banks, CBI court acquitting UPA in 2G scam completely and so on effecting all sections of population and his magic fast fading out, winning 8 state elections in 2018 and general elections 2019 won't be easy for him, especially with Rahul Gandhi shaping up well while Modi's authoritarian & arrogant tendencies becoming a point of discontentment. BJP insiders including cabinet ministers wished victory for Congress in Gujarat so that Modi will start learning walking on the ground.The budget 2018 and 2019 will surely be welfare & rural oriented but without much money available these might not get him desired results.