BJP steadily losing ground

 

• Elections in recent times have shown that the BJP is losing ground steadily.
• There were clear indications of a decline in the popular appeal of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the past few months like the BJP's “pyrrhic victory” in the Gujarat Assembly elections and loss of LS bye polls in Rajasthan and West Bengal with huge margin.
• The manner in which the last full Budget 2018, was expectedly election-oriented, unfolded in  added grist to these doubts which were in total contrast to Modi's speech at Davos World economic Forum just two weeks before Budget.
• Modi’s vehement response on the motion of thanks to the President’s address, few days after the Budget, was so overtly election-driven that a blatantly partisan speech full of aggression was inappropriate in Parliament. 
• The context of the Modi government’s last full Budget is a pointer for early Lok Sabha elections as well which might not work favorably for Modi.
• Data analysis and projections corroborated by RSS from the States going to polls in 2018 says the situation is stark for the ruling BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, the BJP is apparently trying to put up a good fight. But the party and the government are increasingly being denounced by a growing number of people is a fact. 
• The extrapolation of the Assembly election trends to the Lok Sabha indicated a 10% drop in the vote share from 39% in 2014 to 29% in the 2019 general elections elections. BJP's decline is likely to continue in the next Assembly elections and accentuate with the passage of time compelling Modi to think in terms of cutting the losses by advancing the elections.
• Already Modi's personal popularity eroded by over 10 percentage points while Rahul Gandhi proved his mentle and his personal popularity enhanced by over 10 percentage points. Another shift of 10 percentage points would spell defeat to BJP in general elections 2019.
• There is disaffection among several NDA constituents and Shiv Sena its exit from NDA. The TDP complained about the neglect of AP in the Union Budget and announced the parting of ways but retracted due to intervention of Amit Shah. It is to be seen for how long this rapprochement will hold. Although Jaitley’s Budget was with high political value and craft, it did not score much in terms of satisfying the BJP’s allies. TDP leaders minced no words in castigating it.
• TDP Members in Parliament may continue their opposition to the Budget despite the leadership’s decision to remain in the NDA fold. Although TDP’s opposition to the Budget may not be a big political problem for BJP, there is widespread agreement that the dissatisfaction of the AP people with the Modi government is real.
• While Jaitley’s Budget presentation performance was savvy, its efficacy in changing the political perceptions about the government is doubtful. There is tremendous resentment against the government for its failures in addressing farm distress and the socially marginalised. The benefits of initiatives for fixing the bank's bad debt problem and the implementation of GST, are intangible to common people. 
• Early reactions from the agricultural community of western UP underscore the thinking that the Budget statements alone cannot change the perception on the government and its track record. There feel that is another chunav jumla. 
• Similar proclamations about ending farmers’ distress in the 2016-17 budget helped the BJP win several elections but the plight of the farmers has not improved. Farmers need to see much more than Budget proclamations to believe that the BJP will do something really good for them and the marginalised sections of society.
• Many BJP leaders are confident that the NDA’s last full Budget will help advance the government’s political cause and inflict electoral setbacks on the opposition. This coupled with a potential surprise strike through early elections will do them good. Since Congress has not yet initiated concrete efforts to build opposition unity, surprise strike through early elections will be beneficial to BJP, they feel.
• Modi’s impassioned and aggressive intervention in Parliament was essentially done to divert attention from the controversy over the Rafale aircraft deal following MoD Nirmala Sitharaman’s refusal to divulge the details citing confidentiality clauses. 
• The tactics employed by Modi in Parliament will not be enough to cover up the wrongdoings in the Rafale deal. Modi referred to Bofors in his speech and there is little doubt that Rafale is set to become the 'Bofors of the BJP'. 
• The national security breaches Rafale deal has inflicted on the country will get exposed in due course. Such potential exposes could force the government go for early general election.

 

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