Nitish Kumar ... No where to go

Nitish Kumar is a nowhere man now and he will do another somersault because the BJP and Shah are cannibalising him and without an ally he is negligible. He will still prefer to walk out, go it alone and become a martyr allying with the winner of 2019 ... says a senior JDU leader.

• Nitish Kumar has a soul which troubles him only when he has political power at stake. From being a contender for the PM's office to now being reduced to Shah’s collateral damage it has been a sharp and steep fall for Nitish Kumar.
• Yesterday’s loss of the Jokihat seat to the ally RJD, he betrayed was the latest in the series of reverses Nitish Kumar has faced after he joined hands with erstwhile bête noire Narendra Modi. 
• The latest in the serial snubs is Union Minister, Nitin Gadkari publicly turning down his demand for special status for Bihar, Nitish Kumar has had to repeatedly swallow his pride.
• Nitish Kumar’s humiliation at the hands of the Modi and Shah duo has a larger lesson to all the NDA allies of BJP. AP Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu reportedly told senior Congress leaders that he does not want to become Nitish Kumar in the hands of the BJP.
• Even Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo who ended the longest running alliance of the BJP breaking ties has privately mocked Nitish Kumar’s plight. 
• The biggest lesson is how dangerous the BJP under Shah and Modi has become to its partners, that the Akali Dal lost its traditional seat it had retained for 20 years to the Congress in the by-polls yesterday, must be realizing. 
• Shah’s arrogant treatment of Nitish Kumar, his repeated insults, his gobbling up of the JDU’s political space and the recent warning that the BJP will not make any concessions in seat sharing have all been observed by the fence-sitting opposition leaders. Amit Shah's plans to cut Nitish Kumar and JDU down to size and grab more Lok Sabha seats is an open secret in Bihar. So much so that Nitish Kumar who had used Rahul Gandhi as a scapegoat to walk out of the alliance is now sending feelers to the Congress to bail him out.
• Nitish Kumar has also reached out to “friend” West Bengal CM Mamta Banerjee, who was his colleague in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Much to his consternation Banerjee bluntly told him “Modi is no Vajpayee. He will eat you up alive”.
• Left with no options, Nitish Kumar might break all alliances and is likely to go "Solo" in 2019 General elections, like Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo. Amit Shah is likely to eat humble pie in front of Thackeray as Maharashtra accounts for the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats (48), but Nitish Kumar will be given no quarter. But it is unlikely that Thackeray will give in to Shah’s sweet talk but Nitish Kumar is desperate for any BJP deal.
• Navin Patnaik, Odisha CM has now reached out to the leaders of the united opposition after seeing how the BJP treats allies. Patnaik already had a quiet meeting with Sonia Gandhi. Naveen Patnaik is likely to make some joint moves with the united opposition as Rahul Gandhi is in touch with him. Patnaik realises the writing on the wall that the Modi wave is over and hence sitting on the fence is no longer a feasible option.
• Shah is facing allies bleed away from him due to his shortsighted pursuit of winning every electoral battle that has compelled divided opposition to get united for survival. 
• Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, is acting as a catalyst of opposition unity having brought together opposite community leaders Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel in Gujarat and giving BJP a fight and fright.
• The Congress's new MPCC chief Kamalnath is negotiating with Mayawati for an alliance in MP which would add at least another 4-6% Dalit votes. The Congress is committed to reaching out and creating a rainbow opposition coalition across the country. And uneasy Shah has put in CBI on the job of breaking the BSP away.
• But as the Air Asia case registered against Ajit Singh on the eve of the Kairana result showed that vendetta politics of Modi and Shah have diminishing returns. The leaders being targeted are more determined to band together. Sharad Pawar of the NCP, who Modi hailed as his political guru, has also ended his tacit understanding with Modi and is now a prime mover of the united opposition.

However hard Amit Shah tries, it seems that he is unable to split and divide the opposition. The BJP’s  unprincipled power grabs are now working against it. Sources close to Nitish Kumar says that he thought Modi was here to stay. The same Nitish Kumar now privately says that Modi was an accidental PM. A bubble on a wave which will burst in the big fight of 2019. 

Nitish Kumar’s somersault has now become a statutory warning to the united opposition - ally with the BJP at your risk.

Modi and BJP fading away in Hindi heartland

In 2014-15 BJP president Amit Shah's proclamed an uninterrupted BJP rule at the Centre for the next 50 years. Even those who factored in unforeseen political challenges had little doubt that the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah would have an easy ride at least for 15 years. But such conviction is a thing of the past. These observations were made by a senior BJP leader from UP within days after the BJP suffered shock defeats in the byelections in Gorakhpur and Phulpur. UP CM Yogi Adityanath, the BJP's latest mascot candidly admitted that they had been done in by overconfidence. 

• As in March 2018, BJP is in power 15 states and shares power in 5 other states. While 3 states are in Congress fold, 6 states are ruled by regional parties.
• Despite its massive presence in the country, today BJP is trembling with negative vibrations across the nation and elections for 5 states are slated for 2018 and general election for 2019 and Modi is desperately searching for a magic wand, that will work.
• In a span of 10 days, BJP suffered stinging defeats in UP’s Gorakhpur and Phulpur, constituencies held earlier by CM Adityanath and DyCM KP Maurya. While Tripura was wrested by BJP ending the 25-year-old Left Front regime, BJP surrendered their 27-year-long  domination of Gorakhpur to a loose alliance of the SP and BSP. In Bihar, revived alliance with the JDU did not bring any benefit as RJD retained the Araria LS constituency and the Jehanabad Assembly seat. Indeed, you never can take the Indian electorate for granted.
• In the RS polls, BJP’s strength in UP Assembly assured its victory in 8 seats, but it managed to win another seat by engineering cross-voting from the opposition to ensure the BSP candidate’s defeat. Managing a victory in a RS election through backroom manoeuvres is in no way a measure of public opinion.
• The reports from the Hindi heartland States of UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, MP and many more affirm that the popular mood is definitely turning against the BJP. The party is witnessing a steady erosion of support on account of agrarian crisis, the economic hardships on account of demonetisation and GST reforms, and the general failure to live up to the high expectations generated through the rhetoric of leaders like Modi. There is little doubt that this is bound to reflect in reduction of seats for the BJP in the 2019 general election.
• The fact of the matter is voters in the Hindi heartland States are fed up with BJP and they need to face it squarely without taking recourse to convoluted logic and lame excuses. The vote share of the BJP fell by 1,04,495 in Gorakhpur from the 2014 count and by a massive 2,20,102  in Phulpur.
• It is more daunting for the BJP since a mere arithmetical aggregation of SP and BSP votes of the 2017 Assembly elections shows the two parties ahead in as many as 50 of the 80 LS seats in the State. If this arithmetic is getting supplemented by an emotive appeal, a potential SP-BSP alliance will make rapid strides in UP’s electoral politics. Projections on the basis of a cumulative vote share assessment of the 2017 UP Assembly election results are that the SP-BSP combine has a lead of 1.45 lakh votes across 57 LS seats. The BJP and its allies lead in 23 seats by 58,000 votes, a sharp fall from the 71 seats won by BJP and 2 seats won by its allies in 2014.
• Akhilesh Yadav, SP president and former UP CM is of the view that the voter dissatisfaction with the BJP regimes at the Centre and in the States is fast acquiring big proportions and is bound to spread nationally in due course. He opines that Gorakhpur and Phulpur were merely precursors. 
• Akhilesh Yadav said that efforts to portray the BJP defeats in Gorakhpur and Phulpur as the mere fallout of electoral arithmetic is a mechanistic assessment that fails to take into consideration the larger social, economic and political context marked by misrule, the human misery caused by that misrule.
• The TDP  decision to leave the NDA and move a no-confidence motion against the Modi government is another indication of BJP mishandling its NDA allies.
• The manner in which the BJP’s sought to counter the no-confidence motion underscore a sense of panic. The party seems to have unleashed the AIADMK, which has become completely servile to Modi and Shah after  Jayalalithaa’s death, and the TRS to continuously disrupt Parliament on some pretext or the other so that the no-confidence motion cannot be taken up. It seems that like the UPA-II, the Modi Ministry is desperately seeking to run away from parliamentary inspection. The debates on the no-confidence motion would have been telecast live and this too could have added to the government’s discomfiture. But such desperate filibustering will ultimately aggravate voter disenchantment with the Modi government.
• The opposition parties have reinforced attempts to rally anti-BJP forces. While the Congress laid out its plan of action for non-BJP coalition in a special plenary and others are seeking to stitch an alliance of regional parties and these are based on the premise that the BJP is no longer in the position of strength that it enjoyed in 2014. 
• In the RS election in UP, the SP. and the Congress had announced support to the BSP candidate but lost due to cross voting in favour of 9th BJP candidate. The BJP leadership saw in the situation a chance to make mischief between the allies to split them. However, in the press conference that Mayawati said that BSP saw through the BJP’s dirty tricks and vile political games and horse-trading and made it clear that the alliance would continue. 
• BJP and RSS knew that Yogi Adityanath’s stock had taken a big beating. Projected last year as a potential successor to Modi, he has been exposed as an inefficient and ordinary “non vote catcher” leader who cannot even retain his own pocket borough that he had literally lorded over for decades. That does strengthen the Modi-Shah duo as the only vote catcher in the BJP, but the Hindi heartland States account for approximately 200 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha.
• The BJP is known traditionally to be an urban-centric party. The low turnout in the urban areas in the Gorakhpur at 33% and Phulpur 31% was disconcerting in the context of electoral challenges. This showed that the rural antipathy towards the party continued, its urban core base was resolutely refusing to rally behind it. It remains to be seen how Modi and Shah will tackle this. Certainly empty rhetoric cannot contain these jolts and there is widespread agreement with this observation among the Sangh Parivar rank and file.

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Having not ruled the country during first two years and misruled the country with disruptive reforms without preparation and leaving all vulnerable people to their fate without any support, time is now for Modi and BJP to pay the price. No matter what he does, his graph will continue to plunge, an RSS survey has warned Modi. The only way to limit damages is to go for flash polls. That is almost certainty if Karnataka result stuns BJP, which is likely as per opinion polls. Arrogance and dictatorial attitudes will never pay. Consequences are inescapable. Modi's wrong behavior and non-performance and corruption & scams etc has no bounds, much worse than Congress and UPA. Modi must realize that empty rhetoric will not work all the times.

Nitish Kumar: Rank opportunist

Nitish Kumar - Bihar CM - Who walked over into NDA

• Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar basically decided that the time had come to jump the sinking ship of secularists and be on safe ground in 2019.
• The man who had expressed such “moral outrage” at Modi being named the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls citing Gujarat riots 2002, and managed to score such a spectacular victory in the 2015 Bihar Assembly polls for the grand alliance, has now has crashed the mahagatbandhan. 
• The break from the RJD-Congress camp came with such clockwork precision that he deserved the title of ‘gross opportunist’. He resigned as chief minister; soon enough the Prime Minister tweeted, welcoming his resignation and “the fight against corruption”: the NDA offered support and Nitish was sworn in chief minister for the second time in two years in less than 24 hours... actually 16 hours! Can there be a better instance of quick engagement and marriage?
• Lalu Prasad Yadav and his Rashtriya Janata Dal was already mired in corruption charges. The fodder scam during his regime in Bihar, the gross corruption for which he was known, the strong-arm tactics he used throughout his years in power to stifle dissent or opposition, were all in the public domain. If his conscience did not trouble him then, and secularism tilted the scales against corruption, why this volte-face now is the legitimate question?
• Nitish has destroyed his lifetime credibility to retain his CM gaddi. Too big a price! 
• At the moment he is in a cushy spot, all set to ride the 2019 speedboat to victory. But, if due to some miracle that does not happen, or the BJP’s breakneck speed at winning elections is halted, be prepared to hear Nitish sing the secularism mantra once again!
• With his inner agenda thoroughly exposed, Nitish stands tall as one who is hypocrisy personified!

Politics without morality ... is one of the Gandhi's seven sins

Rank opportunism or smart politics?

Nitish Kumarr's power play in Bihar, while dealing a crippling blow to the entire mainstream opposition in India, sends out the unmistakable message that the BJP has started a no-holds-barred campaign for the 2019 elections ... Frontline. But what Modi and Nitish has to realize is that anti incumbency resulting out of their bad performance can in no way be compensated by crooked political stratagem. The Bihar electorate's emphatic rejection of BJP in 2015 was circumvented and now BJP occupying seats of power is betraying nation and its constitution. The least BJP should have done is to extend outside support to Nitish Kumar or the best way for Nitish Kumar was opting for mid term poll joining NDA. But power corrupts people absolutely. Nitish Kumar's conscience doesn't allow 10+ year old corruption matters of Lalu Prasad Yadav but has no problem in BJP backstabbing people of Bihar. What a cruel joke?

Nitish Kumar, CM of Bihar for 6th time!

On July 26, 2017, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has resigned, citing irreconcilable differences with ally RJD on the issue of corruption charges against his deputy Tejashwi Yadav. Legislators of NDA constituents and JD(U) will elect Nitish Kumar as their leader, Sushil Kumar Modi says; BJP will be the part of the government.

On July 28, 2017, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar won the floor test in the State Assembly. Nitish Kumar and the BJP, won the test with all of their 131 votes intact. They needed 122 votes to win. The Opposition garnered 108 votes. 

The Bihar elections 2015 saw the coming together of JD(U), RJD, and Congress as Grand Alliance that was voted to victory. Out of 243 seats, JD(U) bagged 71 seats, RJD 80 and Congress 27, totalling 178. BJP's previous tally of 91 was reduced to only 53 seats. Nitish Kumar became the chief minister of Bihar for the fifth time and RJD Chief Lalu Prasad Yadav's son, Tejaswi Yadav, became the deputy chief minister.

• Earlier in 2013, Nitish Kumar left the NDA after Modi was declared the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate. A BJP leader quipped "We did not leave him, but he left us in 2013".
• Modi tweets “For the bright future of the country, and especially Bihar, it is the need of the hour to rise above political differences and join the fight against corruption.” Political differences and immoral alliances can't be equated.
• In 2015 Bihar elections, Modi in his aggressive campaign, addressing over 30 rallies and announced Rs 1.25 lakh-crore development aid package and failed with no action till date. The PM said the package would be in addition to Rs 40,657 crore pledged to ongoing highway and power projects bringing the total to Rs 1.65 lakh crore, besides Rs 8,500 crore of unused money from Bihar’s last central package.
• Citizens can see through such moves of parties suddenly getting bright ideas on development a month before the elections. People may be happy to take the benefit but they will also ridicule it and do their own thing. Biharis did not go for Modi's dangled Rs 1.25 lakh crore carrot. They preferred 'work on the ground'. It is BJP leadership's gross underestimation of Aam Aadmi's intelligence.
• Similar is the fate of Modi's development packages announced to Sikkim and J&K.
• BJP does not favour mid-term polls in Bihar. When it is 'elections ka jumla,' all is fair, as Amit Shah says.
• In the existing alliance Nitish Kumar is junior partner to Lalu Prasad Yadav where as his in new alliance with BJP he will be dominant partner. That makes all the difference apart from bringing him closer to Delhi's power corridors.
• BJP even though mandated to sit in opposition will now occupy positions of power and rule the state, albeit immorally.
• After Jayalalitha's death, Modi's brazen attempt to meddle in Tamilnadu without even a single MP/MLA seat for BJP, were stalled by Sasikala's adamancy which landed her in jail with a quick judgement in a 20 year old disproportionate assets case.

Nitish Kumar Gymnastics - Cartoon by Dr. Subramanian Swamy

In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, 

the great difficulty lies in enabling the government first to control the governed; 

and in the next place obligate it to control itself.

How can an unprincipled fight corruption with immorality?

My View:
After Indira Gandhi came back to power in Jan 1980, Bhajan Lal the then Janata Party's CM in Haryana immediately defected with a huge chunk of Janata Party's MLAs to Congress and continued as CM. This brazen act made him notorious as an exemplar of 'Aayaram Gayaram' culture in which opportunist politicians show no principles & loyalty. Nitish Kumar's brazan acts of today are similar to that of Bhajanlal then. In Indian Politics there are no permanent friends; no lasting principles & nothing else except any & every method to stay put in power. Nitish Kumar on one hand talks about fighting corruption of Lalu Prasad Yadav's son and on other hand resorts to much worst political & moral corruption to retain his CM chair by jumping into NDA. People of Bihar are betrayed by all politicians. Their 2015 mandate stands mangled. Corruption exists in all walks of life but politics of immorality, unprincipled and spiritual corruption is the worst of all. There may not be immediate loss of anything to public at large but its inherent effects in long run are incalculable.