Leaders are most effective in their first term of power

Every hero becomes a bore at last. RW Emerson observes that most politicians tend to overstay in their particularly in the developing world with young democracies, where several incumbent leaders change the constitution at the peak of their popularity to extend their stay in office. In the long established democracies also the populace generally tires of rulers who hang around for more than one term. Any goodwill generated in the first few years of their reign almost always dissipates rapidly if they remain in power for longer. This axiom is even more relevant in the current economic environment where growth and inflation dynamics are taking a turn for the worse across the globe. 

• Russia is a prime example of such trends. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's ratings were at a record high 70% while Russia's economic growth having averaged 7% since he took over office in 2000. Putin's ratings are now at 50%, lowest in the decade. Russia's economy has been struggling to grow at half the pre-2008 crisis levels. Had Putin rode away into the sunset in 2008 after completing both his four-year terms as President, he could have gone down in history as the most successful Russian leader since Nikita Khrushchev. Putin had frittered away goodwill by staying on for too long, with Russian economy struggling to regain its pre-2008 growth momentum. 
• Leaders who seek to extend their hold on power don't realise that such a path is not just bad for the country, as their focus invariably shifts to protecting deeply vested interests rather than offering any new vision for development, but also for their own place in history. By the time the extended terms end, voters often are fed up with the ruler and their past good deeds are largely forgotten.
• Most eminent leaders in history from Margaret Thatcher in the UK to Francois Mitterrand in France eventually lost their way. Both Thatcher and Mitterrand witnessed a major decline in their popularity after a decade in power. 
• Winston Churchill too was knocked out as the head of government in 1945 despite his widely hailed leadership during World War II as voters got tired of the Conservative Party's many years of rule and began to favour the Labour Party's more welfare-oriented policies following a long period of economic hardship. 
• In genuine democracies, popular opinion will do the job of voting out leaders who have overstayed. In countries where the political systems are not yet well established, rulers will figure out ways to keep extending their stint in office only to see diminishing returns during the second decade of their rule. 

The lesson from history is that leaders are most effective in their first term of power and the goodwill they have erodes very quickly if they stay on in office up to a decade or longer. There are exceptions to the rule, such as Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore who after 30 years of rule was still widely admired. Those are very rare cases; the odds generally are that after a few years in power, most leaders become a bore. 

In Indian scenario Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Manmohan Singh were far less effective in their later terms making people feel bored. Lethargy creeps in, leader gets isolated in ivory towers, coterie wields power recklessly with selfish motives, corruption becomes order of the day, friends wont tell nor the leader likes to listen truths, and the nation and its economy takes severe beating. Therefore for democracy and nation to survive and retain its vibrancy, independent institutions must be strong, headed by men of integrity & values and must never be allowed to subverted. Fourth estate and its freedom must be protected to play vital watch-dog role.

Quit India Movement 1942: Remembering after 75 years.

• The Quit India Movement was launched at the Bombay session of the All-India Congress Committee by Mahatma Gandhi on 8 August 1942, during World War II, demanding an end to British Rule of India.
• The Cripps Mission had failed, and on 8 August 1942, Gandhi made a call to Do or Die in his Quit India speech delivered in Bombay.
• The All-India Congress Committee launched a mass protest demanding what Gandhi called "An Orderly British Withdrawal" from India. Even though it was wartime, the British were prepared to act. Almost the entire leadership of the INC was imprisoned without trial within hours of Gandhi's speech. Most spent the rest of the war in prison and out of contact with the masses. 
• The British had the support of the Viceroy's Council (which had a majority of Indians), the Muslim League, the princely states, the Indian Imperial Police, the British Indian Army and the Indian Civil Service. Many Indian businessmen profiting from heavy wartime spending did not support Quit India Movement. Many students paid more attention to Subhas Chandra Bose, who was in exile and supporting the Axis Powers. 
• The only outside support came from the Americans, as President Franklin D. Roosevelt pressured Prime Minister Winston Churchill to give in to some of the Indian demands. 
• The Quit India campaign was effectively crushed. The British refused to grant immediate independence, saying it could happen only after the war had ended.
• Quit India failed because of heavy-handed suppression, weak co-ordination and the lack of a clear-cut programme of action. However, the British government realized that India was ungovernable in the long run due to the cost of World War II, and the question for postwar became how to exit gracefully and peacefully.
• At the outbreak of war, the Congress Party had passed a resolution during the Wardha meeting of the working-committee in September 1939, conditionally supporting the fight against fascism, but were rebuffed when they asked for independence in return. Gandhi had not supported this initiative, as he could not reconcile an endorsement for war.
• At the height of the Battle of Britain, Gandhi had stated that he did not seek to raise an independent India from the ashes of Britain.
• Cripps draft declaration of 22 March 1942 included terms like establishment of Dominion, establishment of a Constituent Assembly and right of the Provinces to make separate constitutions to be granted after the cessation of the Second World War. Congress felt this Declaration only offered India a promise to be fulfilled in future. Gandhi remarked "It is a post dated cheque on a crashing bank." There was growing realization of the incapacity of the British to defend India.
• Several political groups active during the Indian Independence Movement were opposed to the Quit India Movement. These included the Muslim League, the Hindu Mahasabha, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the Communist Party of India and the princely states.
• The Indian nationalists knew that the United States strongly supported Indian independence. After Churchill threatened to resign if pushed too hard, the U.S. quietly supported him. The American operation annoyed both the British and the Indians.
• In 1942, the RSS, under M.S. Golwalkar refused to join in the Quit India Movement. The Bombay government appreciated the RSS position. RSS, in turn, had assured the British authorities that "it had no intentions of offending against the orders of the Government".
• The British, alarmed by the advance of the Japanese army to the India-Burma border, responded by imprisoning Gandhi. All the members of the Party's Working Committee (national leadership) were imprisoned as well. Later the Congress party was banned. Despite lack of direct leadership, large protests and demonstrations were held all over the country. Workers remained absent en masse and strikes were called. Not all demonstrations were peaceful, at some places bombs exploded, government buildings were set on fire, electricity was cut and transport and communication lines were severed.
• Although the British released Gandhi on account of his health in 1944, Gandhi kept up the resistance, demanding the release of the Congress leadership.
• By early 1944, India was mostly peaceful again, while the Congress leadership was still incarcerated. A sense that the movement had failed depressed many nationalists, while Jinnah and the Muslim League and Congress opponents like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the Hindu Mahasabha sought to gain political mileage, criticizing Gandhi and the Congress Party.

RSS under Golwalkar, Communists etc opposed Gandhi's quit India movement and cooperated with British. Modi stating in Lok Sabha that "...everyone had worked for the common goal of Independence" is pale and a blatant lie. Modi & Co have no right to talk about Gandhi & independence movement which RSS etc opposed and cooperated British. The only exception was that RSS founder Hedgewar participated in the Civil Disobedience movement of 1930s in individual capacity without involving RSS fearing it could be construed as being anti-British. Sonia Gandhi stating “...there were people and organisations which had opposed the Quit India movement and had played no role in getting our country freedom” is factually correct and directly refers to RSS, BJP and Communists. Now Modi should have courage to talk to people of India - truth as truth. If not, he should avoid talking truth rather than than talking lies.

World War II

Timeline
Chronological events of the Word War II between 1939-45, the deadliest conflict in human history with over 60 million fatalities ... more
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Axis Alliance
Axis Alliance partners were Germany, Italy, and Japan recognized German domination over most of continental Europe, Italian domination over the Mediterranean Sea, and Japanese domination over East Asia and the Pacific  with territorial expansion, military conquest, overthrow of the post-World War I international order, and destruction or neutralization of Soviet Communism as objectives... more
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Final Solution
The Nazis frequently used term “Final Solution” to refer to their plan to annihilate the Jewish people. The genocide, or mass destruction, of the Jews was the culmination of a decade of increasingly severe discriminatory measures. Under the rule of Adolf Hitler, the persecution and segregation of Jews was implemented in stages. After the Nazi party achieved power in Germany in 1933, its state-sponsored racism led to anti-Jewish legislation, economic boycotts, all of which aimed to systematically isolate Jews from society and drive them out of the country. In its entirety, the "Final Solution" called for the murder of all European Jews by gassing, shooting, and other means. Six million Jewish men, women, and children were killed during the Holocaust—two-thirds of the Jews living in Europe before World War II... more
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German Prewar Expansion
At the Lausanne Conference of 1932, Germany, Britain, and France agreed to the formal suspension of reparations payments imposed on the defeated countries after World War I. Hitler was determined to overturn the remaining military and territorial provisions of the treaty. However in violation, Germany annexed Austria on March 12, 1938. And on March 15, 1939, Hitler moved against the Czechoslovak state. A week later, on March 23, 1939, German troops suddenly occupied Lithuania. Hitler also raised territorial demands on Poland in the spring of 1939. Convinced that Hitler would not negotiate in good faith, Britain and France guaranteed the integrity of Polish territory against German aggression. With Hitler determined to attack Poland, Europe was on the brink of war in late summer 1939... more
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The Holocaust
The Holocaust was the state-sponsored, systematic persecution and annihilation of European Jewry by Nazi Germany and its collaborators, between 1933 and 1945. Jews were the primary victims - six million were murdered. Roma (Gypsies), disabled people and Poles were also targeted for destruction or decimation for racial, ethnic, or national reasons. Millions more, including homosexuals, Jehovah's Witnesses, Soviet prisoners of war, and political dissidents also suffered grievous oppression and death under Nazi tyranny... more
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War in Depth
Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan unleashed World War II with the intention of establishing, by military conquest, a permanent dominance over Europe and Asia respectively. Germany and Japan formed an anti-Communist front aimed at the Soviet Union in 1936. That same year Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany formed the Axis alliance, shortly after Italy completed its brutal and successful conquest of Ethiopia. Japan had initiated its policy of military conquest by invading Chinese Manchuria in September 1931. Germany incorporated Austria and the Czech lands without having to resort to war in 1938 and 1939. With a pact of nonaggression, Germany secured the neutrality of the Soviet Union, ruled by dictator Joseph Stalin. Germany then invaded Poland on September 1, 1939, beginning World War II in Europe. The Soviet Union occupied and annexed eastern Poland in 1939. With German encouragement, the Soviet Union occupied the Baltic states in June 1940 and annexed them in August 1940. Italy entered the war on June 10, 1940, and invaded southern France on June 21. Dissatisfied with Italy's share in the spoils at the armistice negotiations, Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini attacked Greece in October 1940. On June 22, 1941, the Germans and their Axis partners (except Bulgaria) invaded the Soviet Union in direct violation of the German-Soviet Pact of August 1939. By the end of October 1941, German troops had advanced deep into the Soviet Union... more
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War in Europe
During World War II, Germany overran much of Europe using a new tactic called the "Blitzkrieg" (lightning war). Blitzkrieg involved the massing of planes, tanks, and artillery. These forces would break through enemy defenses along a narrow front. Air power prevented the enemy from closing the breach. German forces encircled opposing troops, forcing them to surrender. Using the Blitzkrieg tactic, Germany defeated Poland (attacked in September 1939), Denmark (April 1940), Norway (April 1940), Belgium (May 1940), the Netherlands (May 1940), Luxembourg (May 1940), France (May 1940), Yugoslavia (April 1941), and Greece (April 1941). Yet Germany did not defeat Great Britain, which was protected from ground attack by the English Channel. German forces attacked the Soviet Union in June 1941, pushing more than 600 miles to the gates of Moscow. A second German offensive in 1942 brought German soldiers to the shores of the Volga River and the city of Stalingrad. But the Soviet Union, together with Great Britain and the United States, which had entered the war against Germany in December 1941, turned the tide of battle against Germany. Nazi Germany surrendered in May 1945... more
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War in the Pacific
Japanese expansion in East Asia began in 1931 with the invasion of Manchuria and continued in 1937 with a brutal attack on China. Japan launched a surprise attack on the United States Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941. The attack severely damaged the American fleet and prevented serious American interference with Japanese military operations.The turning point in the Pacific war came with the American naval victory in the Battle of Midway in June 1942. The Japanese fleet sustained heavy losses and was turned back. On August 6, 1945, the United States Air Force dropped an atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, the United States dropped another atom bomb on the Japanese city of Nagasaki. Approximately 120,000 civilians died as a result of the two blasts. On August 8, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan and invaded Japanese-occupied Manchuria. Japan formally surrendered to the United States, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union on September 2, 1945... more
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Nazi Persecution of Soviet Prisoners of War
The brutal treatment of Soviet POWs by the Germans violated every standard of warfare. About 3.3 million out of 5.7 million i.e. about 57% of those taken prisoner, were dead by the end of the war, second only to the Jews. In contrast of the 231,000 British and American prisoners held by the Germans during the war only about 8,300 i.e. 3.6% died in German custody... more
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Postwar Refugee Crisis and the Establishment of the State of Israel
Most Jewish survivors, who had survived concentration camps or had been in hiding, were unwilling to return to eastern Europe because of postwar antisemitism and the destruction of their communities during the Holocaust. Jewish Brigade Group, worked with former partisans to help organize the "escape", the exodus of 250,000 Jewish refugees across closed borders from inside Europe to the coast in an attempt to sail for Palestine. After the British began the withdrawal of their military forces from Palestine Zionist leaders moved to establish a modern Jewish state and on May 14, 1948 formation of the state of Israel was announced... more
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Adolf Eichmann
who killed five million Jews With boundless enthusiasm for his task and fanatical efficiency, Eichmann traveled throughout the Reich coordinating the Final Solution, insuring a steady supply of trainloads of Jews to the killing centers. In 1950, he fled to Argentina and lived under the assumed name for ten years until Israeli Mossad agents abducted him. He was found guilty on all counts, sentenced to death and hanged in 1962... more

Word War II accelerated India's Independence

By 1945, Britain was exhausted and bankrupt, and lacked either the will or the resources to maintain its empire. Realizing that we had lost any remaining vestiges of control, on the afternoon of 20 February 1947 the new prime minister, Clement Attlee, announced before Parliament that British rule would end ‘no later than June 1948’. 

The war flattened out the pretensions of empire, making ceremonial and ritual excesses look archaic, challenging old compacts between king-emperor and the landed elites…. It heightened nationalism, both in Britain and India, so that older forms of transnational solidarity became dated and obsolete. The Raj was left in debt, morally redundant and staffed by exhausted administrators whose sense of purpose could not be sustained…. Ultimately, the war delivered decolonization and the partition of 1947 — neither of which was inevitable or even foreseen in 1939.

The second world war is one of the most written-about episodes in all world history: every month sees a dozen new titles published. The two million Indian troops — changed the course of the war, and of how the war irrevocably changed India’s future.

More than 100,000 Britisher's were in India administering the colony before the beginning of second world war in 1939, and due to fear of security and safety many have gone back to England and by the time war ended in 1945 their numbers were just 4,000 with families already sent back to England, confined to Delhi, Calcutta, Bombay and Madras, anxiously waiting for approvals to return back to England.