Bullet train: Another oxymoron of Modi

Modi (PM Of India) and Shinzo Abe (PM of Japan)

• 508km Ahmedabad-Mumbai bullet train (HSR) project's estimated cost is Rs.110,000 crores. 80% i.e. 88,000 crores is a soft loan (0.1% interest payable from 16th through 50th years) from JICA, Japan and 20% i.e. Rs.22,000 crores to funded by Govt of India. 
• The JICA is notorious for funding projects in which Japanese companies are in the fray and there are often hidden costs.
• This Rs.22,000 crores will easily go up to Rs.50,000 crores, or even more, in due course.
• This project has been awarded to Japan on a “nomination basis”, without any competitive bidding process and with the direct negotiations by Modi with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. It is expensive when compared to Chinese rates by 59% to 97%.
• No competitive tendering, no cost benefit analysis or any other due diligence for minimizing costs and maximizing benefits was ever undertaken.
• Modi highlighting that "it is virtually free'' tantamount to lying and misleading the nation and doesn't befit his occupying PM chair.
• JPY/INR exchange risk is also going to be a huge burden. No one will hedge exchange rate risks beyond 6 months. INR is always a depreciating currency where as JPY an appreciating currency.
• The pricing of tickets would be close to flight travel tickets and hence useles for common man.
• Worldwide all bullet train projects are loss making and supported by government. This HSR project will be a white elephant and big drain on tax payers money for many decades.
• Mumbaikar's demanded 'we want basics not bullet trains' in response to Elphinstone Bridge stampede incident where 23 people lost lives on Sep 30, 2017.
• If we don’t dream big, we will never achieve big ... But these trophy projects drains scarce funds which otherwise rightfully would have gone for education, healthcare, drinking water, sanitation, transportation and welfare - benefiting lower strata of society. 
• Development with poorer classes funds is an outrageous model of development.

Gandhi's Talisman: Whenever you are in doubt, or when the self becomes too much with you, recall the face of the poorest and the weakest man whom you may have seen, and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him. Will he gain anything by it? Will it restore him to a control over his own life and destiny? In other words, will it lead to freedom for the hungry and spiritually starving millions? Then you will find your doubts and your self melt away.

Lemon Socialism ... socialise losses and privatise profits 

Commonsense tells us that we get best price only when we buy things with our own cash. Any kind of loans & financing will erode our bargaining capability and we will be saddled with not only interest charges but also hidden costs and front loading. Government borrowing money with soft interests with long term repayments is ok for investments in infrastructure benefiting masses and accelerating overall development in that region/ state/ country but not for nonviable political projects just for ego satisfaction and showcasing and displaying to foreigners and publicity devoid of any merit. Sardar Sarovar Dam's incomplete canal systems during his 13 years as CM of Gujarat, is a testimony for Modi's incompetency. GIFT city project is another white elephant. Like demonetization and mangled & unprepared GST roll out - bullet train will add to woes of nation. If it turns out to be scandalous, no one will be surprised. With Railway safety at its worst, priority is not bullet train but to invest and ensure safety of passengers. Finally, we don't have to compete with any one in the world; we just need to improve ourselves year after year, carrying all sections of people together.

Vikas gando thayo chhe (Gujarat development gone berserk)

Man telling his curious friends that he is "looking for vikas"

Viral social media campaign on poor infrastructure has the party worried ahead of polls

The much vaunted ‘Gujarat model of development’, once the poster-child of economists, has “gone crazy”, according to the top trending hashtag on social media. With State elections barely two months away, the ruling BJP is worried.

Over the past two weeks, witty posts, satirical memes, and audio-visual capsules — all with the Gujarati hashtag, ‘vikas gando thayo chhe’ (‘Development has gone crazy’) — have gone viral on Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp. Mostly shared by youngsters, it has turned into a trending social media campaign that has put the ruling BJP on the defensive.

The campaign began spontaneously after the monsoon rains that left potholes in roads across the State, including in cities such as Ahmedabad, and the government’s claims about smart cities and world class infrastructure took a beating. Soon, people started sharing photographs or video clips of caved-in roads, decrepit State transport buses, roadside garbage dumps, flooded streets, and figures of swine flu-related deaths, all tagged with the catchy ‘vikas’ punch line.

Sensing an opportunity, the Congress party’s social media teams latched on to the campaign. As the phenomenon became a talking point across age groups, Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani responded by blaming the Congress. “Those who are saying ‘vikas gando thayo chhe’ have themselves gone crazy,” he said. Recently, party president Amit Shah felt compelled to ask the State’s youth not to “fall prey to anti-BJP social media campaigns.”

However, many BJP leaders admit that they are unable to counter the forceful social media posts on fuel price hikes, high GST rates, and job losses.

“This campaign is a huge success. Even BJP supporters are forwarding these posts,” said Saral Patel, a Congress social media volunteer.

Though the Congress social media team has taken credit, the phrase “Vikas gando thayo chhe” is attributed to 20-year-old Sagar Savalia, a civil engineering student and member of the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti which leads the Patidar quota agitation.

“On August 23, I received some photographs of a dilapidated State transport bus. I forwarded them with the line, ‘Stay Away! Vikas has gone crazy in Gujarat’, and it went viral,” Mr. Savalia told The Hindu.

Modi & co will not learn lessons on their own. They must be dumped into garbage. Otherwise they will destroy the nation beyond recognition with their funny adventures. They don't know how to rule a nation democratically. The present 5.7% GDP growth if corrected with low oil regime benefit and fudging economic data with new parameters, the real GDP growth will be less than 2% and massive job losses indicates economic collapse of nation!

Swachh Bharat fails but touted as success

As of 2011, 53% of 246 million households don't have latrines. Half of the households i.e. half of the population, defecate in open. As of 2015, 564 million people i.e. 50% of population still defecate in open. 65,000 tonnes of uncovered, untreated faeces were being introduced into environment every single day. Swachch Bharat Mission makes it a major objective to completely eliminate this open defecation by 2019. This is enormous, noble and admirable goal. Next comes hygiene and sanitation. Door to door collection of garbage and process the inorganic trash for power generation and organic waste to covert into manure is another task. Between 1990-2015, 394 million people stopped defecatinhg in open, but overall situation remain dismal.

• Launched by PM Modi on Oct 2, 2014, with objective of “A clean India would be the best tribute India could pay to Mahatma Gandhi on his 150th birth anniversary in 2019.”
• He roped in every layer of India’s vast government—from the cabinet, through the ministries and state and district administrations, down all the way to individual urban authorities and village panchayats.
• A cess of 0.5 percent on all taxable services to help raise money for the campaign. 
• On the second anniversary of the Swachh Bharat Mission came the proclamation of one of its most touted successes. They declared that Gujarat, Modi’s home state, had eradicated open defecation in all urban areas. The minister M Venkaiah Naidu, hailed this “interim gift” to Gandhi. 
• As part of the Swachh Bharat Mission, the Gujarat government has declared that all of the state’s urban areas, including Ahmedabad, have eradicated open defecation. Yet the practice continues in Maninagar, an area in Ahmedabad that thrice elected Narendra Modi as its MLA, and in other parts of the city too—belying the government’s claim.
• Apart from constructing latrines, sanitary systems maintenance and disposal of sewerage captured are even more important and nothing is being done in these matters. Whole of the money is spent on publicity and construction of latrines which serves no purpose.
• The ending of manual scavenging was not given much thought or importance in any of the schemes of Swachh Bharat Mission, speaks volumes about the apathy of Modi administration. They do only visible things that garner them publicity.
• The CAG report stating that less than 3% of Gujarat Municipalities have sewage segregation systems in place,  none of its municipal corporations have segregation rates more than 18% and none of the state's municipalities have working sewage treatment facilities - speaks volumes about what Modi has done in this direction during his 14 years as CM of Gujarat.
• In his unreleased book 'Karmayog' of 2007 published by GSPC, Chief Minister Narendra Modi writes that scavenging was an 'experience in spirituality' for the Valmikis. Modi describes scavengers assigned role in the caste order as a "job bestowed upon them by Gods". This blatant casteism outraged Dalit groups, is another matter. Under Modi's instructions Gujarat Information Dept withdrew the book from circulation. Poet Nirav Patel asked bitterly: “Why didn’t it occur to Modi that the spirituality involved in doing menial jobs hasn’t ever been experienced by the upper castes?”
• Unless overall governance at grass root level improves, mere deployment of resources may not have any significant impact.
• Swachh Bharat Mission failed to make any impact for people living on margins of society especially in rural areas, due to lack of conviction down the line and meager resources spent mostly on publicity and campaign.

Down The Drain: How the Swachh Bharat Mission is heading for failure

My View:
Habits won't change with edicts. People change when others change and they find benefits, over time. Education and awareness are the keys. Like any other scheme, Modi announces and publicity reverberates in all corners spending hundreds of millions of rupees. BJP troll brigade makes sure that social media carries all publicity. And when the truth surfaces later, Modi & Co maintains stoic silence. He never answers parliament where reply must straight and point by point inviting supplementary questions. But he responds in public meeting or televised address which carries whatever he wants to say, usually blatant lies and abusing past regimes i.e. Congress & Nehru family. Imagine a nation's prime minister telling blatant lies and distorted truths to its people, all the times!

Bulllet Train - Mumbai Ahmedabad

Salient features:

Mumbai - Ahmedabad bullet train

1. The proposed Mumbai - Ahmedabad bullet train will run at 350 kmph whereas the present fastest Shatabdi Express runs at 160 kmph. It will be 8th high speed train in the world. 
2. The 508 km distance will be traveled in just 2 hours. At present Ahmedabad-Mumbai flight takes 2.5 hours including check in time. 
3. It is expected that around 36,000 daily users per day both ways by 2023, going up to 186,000 by 2053. 
4. The non-stop journey from Ahmedabad to Mumbai will take 2.07 hours. There is another train stopping at all the 12 stations enroute will take 2.58 hours. The 12 stations are Mumbai, Thane, Virar, Boisar, Vapi, Bilimora, Surat, Bharuch, Vadodara, Anand, Ahmedabad and Sabarmati.  At present, Duronto Express takes about seven hours to cover this distance.
5. The bullet train work will start in 2017 and competed in 2022-23.
6. Out of Rs. 97,636 crores total cost, 80% loan will be be provided by Japan at 0.1% interest repayable in 50 years, with 15 years moratorium. Total duration of Bullet Train Project would be 12-13 years.
7. Construction cost would be Rs.140 crores per km where as Delhi Metro costed Rs.175 crores per km and Vijayawda Metro cost estimated at Rs.288 crores per km. While the cost of construction of a normal railway route is Rs 5 crore per km, the estimated expenditure on the high speed railway line for bullet train will be Rs 140 crore per km.
8. In 2010 UPA govt sanctioned the feasibility report for 6 bullet train routes (including Ahmedabad-Mumbai route). In 2012 Narendra Modi, the then CM of Gujarat, visited Japan, traveled in Bullet Train and then requested centre to include Ahmedabad-Mumbai route. It was included since it was cheapest and best suited route for Bullet Train Project. Entire process took 6-7 years study and 5-6 years of building the project totaling 13 years

9. 

   Modi travelling in Bullet Train in Japan in 2012

10. The Ministry of Railways has proposed a tariff for the upcoming bullet train service between Mumbai and Ahmedabad that will be 1.5 times the first class AC fare prevailing now. In Duronto Express, the current AC 1st Class fare between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, is Rs.2,200. This means, for the 508-km run between the two cities — via a dedicated, high-speed corridor — the fare will be around Rs.3,300. In Japan, a similar, 550-km run between Tokyo and Osaka  costs around Rs.8,500.
11. According to a study 55 per cent of air passengers, 55 per cent of high-end train passengers, 38 per cent of luxury bus users and 22 per cent of car users will shift to the bullet train in the first year of operations.

The six routes considered for bullet train study and implementation during UPA regime are (1)  Delhi-Patna (2) Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad (3) Howrah-Haldia (4) Delhi-Chandigarh-Amritsar (5) Hyderabad-Dornakal-Vijaywada-Chennai and (6) Chennai-Bengaluru-Coimbatore-Ernakulum  and curiously Ahmedabad-Mumbai route is being taken up first by Narendra Modi government. 

After all technology determines what can be done, economics determines what should be done and politics determines what will be done.

My View:
The bullet train fare near about Airfare clearly eliminates its usage by middle & lower classes. No prudent middle class or salary earner will travel by this bullet train, except during emergency situations.

Even though soft loan* with moratorium etc seems justification for this investment, it is unlikely that similar loans could be arranged for subsequent bullet train projects that will follow. Eventually, for all bullet train projects loans consolidated, we end up paying market rates for the loans. That is how advanced countries sell their products in developing countries.

At a time (after about 70 years of independence) when we need to invest heavily for providing basic amenities like drinking water, sanitation, primary education, primary health care to the deprived classes amounting to almost 50% of population, investment of this kind of money, whether soft loan or own funds, on classy luxuries for the benefit of rich people is not appreciated. Ours is a democracy and if we take referendum on this large proposed investment, I am sure at least 60-70% will vote against it.

*Soft loan is only for 80% and remaining 20% our own funds. Add to that over heads will be another 10% making our own investment of whopping Rs.30,000 crores for this bullet train project in one corridor is highly debatable especially when some Railway Projects in Andhra Pradesh are still on drawing board even after 25 years waiting for funds allocation.

Only yesterday, our FM Arun Jailtley was weeping (crocodile tears, of course) in RS saying that with budget deficit of 6.9% he is unable to allocate funds for Polavaram project, the life line for Andhra Pradesh, and extend financial support to AP as committed in AP Reorganization Act 2014. From where this money would come for bullet train project for the benefit of Modi's Gujarati rich business friends? I wonder!