BJP wins in Gujarat !

Today i.e. Dec 18, 2017, Gujarat election counting completed and BJP won in 99 seats (54%) and Congress+ 80 seats (44%), just 6 seats above the magic mark of 93 seats. In a 182 seat Gujarat Assembly - although it is a record 6th straight victory for BJP, all is not well for BJP and Congress put up a brave, spirited, tenacious and resurgent fight.

In 1985 Congress headed by Rajiv Gandhi won 149 seats (82%) restricting BJP to just 11 seats (6%). BJP never won Gujarat elections with any landslide victory. 

Now in 2017 elections, BJP's victory is with the lowest margin in the past 25 years, just 54% of seats. This is despite PM Modi addressing 37 rallies like a state CM, using street language abusing Congress and its leaders especially Rahul Gandhi and his family and invoking religion and Pakistan with no mention of his reforms (like demonetisation, GST etc) or Gujarat vikas model etc. Model poll code was violated by PM Modi himself many times. Quantum of money spent and liquor flowing in this dry state is immeasurable with lion's share of BJP (the champion of crusade against corruption & black money). Almost all media was captive in the hands of authoritarian Modi reflected by hours of coverage for Modi and often as low as a minute for Rahul Gandhi.

EC was blamed all along being partial to BJP and EVM tampering by BJP. EC lost its credibility by its wrong behavior only to please authoritarian Modi.

The way campaign was conducted by spirited & tenacious Congress led by Rahul Gandhi associated with 3 young turks - Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani sent shivers to BJP & Modi that compelled Modi to stretch himself and sweat out with fears of imminent defeat. 

Modi successfully fooled people of Gujarat once again since 2002 with his narratives, arousing passions, anti Muslim rhetoric, abusing Congress party etc with out doing much to the state of Gujarat or India. Today, Gujarat's human development indices are no better than Indian averages. Economic indices makes no sense for common people, poor people and farmers. Sound minds of India expect miracles by electing educationally and morally illiterate to power.

If any sanity of mind is left with Modi, he will go very cautiously with further reforms which only favours rich and hurts poor and focus on reasonable share for welfare, agriculture and rural development. With several states going to polls in 2018 and general elections 2019, analysts expect cautious behavior by Modi & co. But Modi is a man in hurry with habit of seeking quack advises, no economists left in his inner circle, empty coffers, unfavorable oil prices etc, he will be tempted to resort to wild adventures which would be disastrous for nation and that would be end of BJP in 2019 elections.


Narendra Modi’s seaplane flight from the Sabarmati river in Ahmedabad to the Dharoi dam in Mehsana district on the last day of campaigning, is not only flouting his own safety norms but the question is whose plane is that. The aircraft is identified as N181KQ, landed in Mumbai on Dec 3 2017. It was said to have flown in from Karachi. The plane is owned by the Bank of Utah as a trustee and is USA registered, real owner is unknown. The flight logs of the aircraft show it has been across the globe made stops in New Zealand, Indonesia and Muscat before going to Karachi. The million dollar question is who brought this to India and paid for its trip to India for Modi's spectacular show.

Gujarat Elections: Resurgent Congress

• BJP's formidable election machinery and Prime Minister Narendra Modi would see them through. One of the farmers shot back: But he's not going to lead the Gujarat government. The rest of the group nodded their heads in silence. It is this silence that is worrying BJP.
• BJP's worry is reflected in Modi's eight trips to Gujarat in the past five months. Like an indulgent parent making up for his absence, Modi has been on a gifting spree. He has announced or inaugurated projects worth over Rs 20,000 crore, not counting the Rs 1.1 lakh crore Ahmedabad - Mumbai bullet train for which the foundation stone was laid on Sep 14. The Sardar Sarovar dam project dedicated to the nation and also the inauguration of the first phase of the Rs 615 crore roll-on, roll-off ferry service between Ghogha and Dahej.

• Calling Gujarat elections the mother of all battles for both the BJP and the Congress would not be a misnomer. 
• Anti-incumbency will play a part for BJP has been in power in the state for 22 years. 
• There is the discontent over the Centre's twin economic moves - demonetisation and the GST.
• Opinion Poll in all 182 constituencies of the state shows the BJP bagging 115 - 125 seats and Congress winning 57 - 65 seats. But on the ground, the mood is less upbeat. 
• Rahul Gandhi has seen impressive crowds at his rallies and has successfully tapped disenchantment with the big bang reforms. The BJP strategy has been to carpet-bomb the electorate with development rhetoric. This rhetoric will be lost on the nearly five million first-time voters born after 1995 who have no memory of a time when the Congress ruled the state.
• For the Congress, a fourth consecutive loss in Gujarat will only add to its declining fortunes. But winning could reinvigorate the party ahead of the multiple state elections due in 2018 and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
• While the BJP has a 48% vote share and the Congress 38%. A 6% swing in the Congress's favour could upset the BJP applecart.
• Clearly the BJP isn't getting the state on a platter this time. This time, it looks like it has its back to the wall, says a political analyst.
• Congress offered tickets to the three young Turks - Patidar agitation leader Hardik Patel, emerging Dalit icon Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakore. Thakore had become a hero in his community by running an anti-liquor reform movement under the banner of the Gujarat Thakore Sena. 
• Rising prices and the problems caused by the GST are troubling the BJP in many pockets, with the party not doing enough to remove the doubts of the small businessmen. 
• BJP will have to drop at least a third of its 120 MLAs, particularly the Patel MLAs targeted by Hardik. Though Patels are only between 12-15% of the electorate, there are 44 BJP Patel MLAs and 10 Patel ministers. 
• On Oct 9, Rahul Gandhi delivered a moving speech which drew quite a favourable response. He spoke out against the BJP's highhandedness, manifested in slogans like 'Congress mukt Bharat'. Everyone has a right to be in politics. Why should anyone think of erasing others from politics? We in the Congress never think in such negative terms.
• The impressive turnout in Rahul Gandhi's meetings could be an indicator of the public mood, showing that the public disapproved of the politics of defection played by the BJP.
• Congress party even though lacks a strong state leader to counter the Modi aura sees a glimmer of hope of victory in the absence of Modi from the state and the growing discontent with the BJP.
• The Congress has also played up the tanashahi charge against the BJP. Hardik Patel was jailed in 2015 for 'waging war against the state' and banished from Gujarat. The case of a businessman and party ticket contender after being threatened skipped a meeting with Rahul Gandhi. Such high-handedness is only going to strengthen the resolve of the people to throw the BJP out. The state government is insensitive and high-handed.
• A combination of agrarian stress and the Hardik-led popular movement may dent the BJP's Patel vote bank that swept it to power in 1995. 
• Congress party's social media team racked up some impressive successes against the BJP - a Vikas Gando Thayo Chee (Vikas Gone Crazy) campaign lampooning the vikas plank.

• The real challenge for the Congress is to woo the urban voter. Issues like water, electricity, and the struggles of farmers or tribals don't exist in the cities. In 2012, the BJP managed a near-clean sweep, winning 42 of the 46 seats in 6 cities.

It would better for India, if Congress wins in Gujarat. Then at least Modi will regain senses and rule the nation democratically shedding his dictatorial tendencies. This guy is behaving like erstwhile Nizam of Hyderabad and is unacceptable in this 21st century. He must be dumped in 2019 elections into trash bin.