Sonia Gandhi outmaneuvers Modi in Karnataka

Karnataka Elections 2018 Results

What Karnataka Governor Can Do?

Recent Precedents Favoring BJP

Arun Jaitley - Goa Assembly Elections 2017

By hook or crook, BJP is hell bent on formation of government in Karnataka, despite falling short of numbers by 8. While JDS has accepted post-poll coalition with Congress, for CM position to its leader Kumaraswamy, independents & others are just 3 and are in no position to help BJP. The only option left for BJP is to engineer defections from JDS or Congress and that is what they are doing exactly by making Governor not inviting Kumaraswamy to form government and BJP leader BS Yedurappa asking Governor for inviting him, on the basis of being leader of the largest party, to form Government without majority numbers and no confirmed support and asking one week time to prove majority on the floor of the house thus getting sufficient time for horse trading of JDS & Congress MLAs, shamelessly. When the Governor acts decisively and correctly or what shape the issue takes and ends up is for the time to decide.

Earlier while BJP was rejoicing their certainty of reaching magic figure, Sonia Gandhi & Rahul Gandhi moved in swiftly by offering JDS to form government and Congress willing to support from outside unconditionally was readily accepted by Deve Gowda & Kumaraswamy with a condition that Congress be a part of coalition with Dy.CM, Speaker and 19 ministerial positions and JDS taking CM & 12 cabinet positions which Congress actually wants to get from JDS. Realising the situation BJP too reached out to JDS offering them with DyCM post etc, but was ignored by them. Deve Gowda always maintained that he was secular and always opposed to RSS-Hindutva idealogy.

Now Modi & BJP's central team staying at Bengaluru todo every possible thing for BS Yedurappa forming BJP Government unethically, immorally, unconstitutionally etc and luring all non-BJP MLAs is nothing but murder of democracy and rape of constitution in the streets of Bengaluru by Modi, Amit Shah, BJP, Governor etc. But they won't care. All that they want is power in Karnataka and perceived political entry into South India, otherwise Modi & BJP are certain to lose 2019 General Elections in the reality of negative vibrations in West & North India due to Modi government's gross under performance and economic distress, as per political analysts. BJP & needs to win as many MP seats as possible in South, East and North East otherwise Modi & Shah will get dumped back in Ahmedabad.

Karnataka Elections 2018 - Funny result

Karnataka elections 2018's fractured verdict has some funny outcomes. BJP gets highest seats of 104 with second best popular vote of 36%, while Congress with highest popular vote of 38% gets only 78 seats. Surprisingly, JDS with popular vote share of 18% gets 37 seats will form the government with Kumaraswamy as CM. With no clear indication of voter's verdict, Congress+JDS and BJP+ JDS breakaway MLA's claim to form government.

• Congress was quick to offer JDS (combined strength of JDS & Congress 115/222) CM position and outside support. But JDS supremo HD Deve Gowda accepting the offer with condition that Congress be part of coalition with DyCM, Speaker & 20 ministerial positions while JDS will take CM position and 14 cabinet berths. This appears sensible.
• In SR Bommai 1994 case, SC guidelines are clear: (1) Party with clear majority (2) Pre-poll largest alliance (3) Post-poll largest alliance (4) largest party withoiut clear majority ... in the same order. While no one qualifies for position 1 & 2, Congress-JDS alliance at 115/222 comes 3rd whereas BJP being largest party 104/222 comes 4th.
• But BJP with 104/222 MLAs will not allow JDS/Congress alliance form government so easily and sit in opposition benches. Governor is likely to invite BS Yedurappa, the leader of largest party i.e. BJP, to form government and prove majority with in 15 days on floor of the house. 
• This will only to facilitate BJP to break JDS disgruntled group of 13-15 MLAs and join BJP. 
• This would be murder of democracy - Governor ignoring JDS-Congress combined majority claim and inviting minority BJP to form Government without clear majority support and help them resort to horse trading.
• Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala is a hardcore RSS person and Modi's blind follower from Gujarat and hence much decency to follow democratic principles can't be expected.
• Now the burden on JDS and Congress to keep their elected MLAs intact and ensure vote against confidence motion on the floor of the house to bring down minority BSY government of BJP in next 15-20 days. No easy task!
• In Hyderabad-Karnataka and Bangalore regions (total 67 seats), where most Telugu people reside ... BJP won 26 seats, Congress won 34 seats and JDS won 7 seats. BJP paid bitter price for not fulfilling AP Reorganization Act 2014 provisions and promises made by Modi and MMS in RS regarding granting Special Category Status to AP and offending Telugu people worldwide. Had Modi & BJP been fair to Telugu people ... they would have easily won another  10-12 seats in these regions and get simple majority. Too big a price paid by BJP for their rogue & dirty politics.
• The fact that film actor Sai Kumar of BJP not only got defeated at Bagepalli constituency (30km from Hindupur) but was relegated to 4th position & lost his deposit is a matter of shame for BJP. But Modi & BJP will not learn lessons.

Had Congress and JDS formed pre-poll alliance and with combined popular vote share of 38+18=56% against BJP's 37% would have got some thing like 160/222 seats relegating BJP to insignificant status. Now they have to contend with 116/222 post poll alliance running the government on narrow majority. In the meantime BJP will resort to all sorts of unhealthy campaigns that they had penetrated into south, even though not. Rahul Gandhi had to blame himself for getting carried away by Siddaramaih's overconfidence unable encash opportunity of non-anti-incumbency in Karnataka. Rahul Gandhi learnt a very bitter lesson for his run upto to 2019 general elections to dislodge BJP-Modi at centre.

Karnataka elections: Why BJP will lose?

This Karnataka poll is significant for both BJP and Congress party, ahead of general elections next year. The state is the last major bastion of the opposition Congress party, which India's ruling BJP wants to break into.

• Loss in this election would spell disaster for the Congress party, which rules only Karnataka, Punjab, Mizoram and Puducherry. 
• The BJP and its allies are in power in 22 of India's 29 states.
• This election is also a crucial for the BJP, which has won in Karnataka only once before. The party has a limited or zero presence in the four other southern states, where it is unlikely to contest an election without a regional ally.
• BJP is saddled with corruption tainted CM candidate BS Yedurappa and mining don Gali Janardhana Reddy. Without BSY & GJR, in 2013, BJP's popular vote share has plummeted from 33% to 20% compared Congress party's 37%.
• BJP is also saddled with bad performance of PM Modi at centre in the last 4 years. He has not a single worthwhile achievement to campaign in this election. Modi focused only on wrong doings of Congress during past 70 years, which are unverifiable and distorted as well and no one is buying his arguments. In fact he has become a laughing stock.
• With BSY and GJR back into BJP fold, BJP needs vote swing of +4% to get a simple majority (112/222) in the Assembly to oust Congress. And Congress needs a vote swing of +3% to retain the simple majority (114/222) in the Assembly. 
• As things stands, BJP's task seems to be uphill where as Congress has to sweat a lot. This is reflected by the fact that Rahul Gandhi has spent full one month in Karnataka campaign and PM Modi has to spend full two weeks.

Modi not forming Cauvery water board, despite Supreme Court judgment, has angered 6% Tamil voters in Karnataka. Similarly not extending legitimate financial support and special category status to AP as per AP Reorganization Act 2014 has alienated 6% Telugu voters in Karnataka. With Muslims at 14%, Christians at 4%, Dalits at 18% - altogether anti-BJP / anti-Modi voters are huge 48% stand disgusted with BJP/Modi. With no Modi/BJP wave, Modi's negative performance etc how BJP will win Karnataka election, is a million dollar question.

While Rahul Gandhi's election speeches are some what dignified, Modi's speeches are third class and speaks very poorly of his stature as PM. The fact that Modi is scared of losing Karnataka election to Congress & Rahul Gandhii, with tremendous negative vibrations in Hindi heartland states UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan etc is reflected by his bankruptcy of ideas and vulgarity of speeches indicating his desperateness and fear of losing 2019 general elections. In any case, I don't see any way BJP can get even 70+ seats in Karnataka and that leaves simple majority to Congress and the JDS (self proclaimed king maker) with 30+ seats, remaining irrelevant. This victory of Congress party in Karnataka is not attributable to Siddaramaiah who was facing some kind of anti-incumbency but to the much bigger anti-incumbency of Modi in entire India. He has no respect for any other person, institution or democracy or any thing. Other than winning elections with rhetoric, money power and bull power, Modi hasn't done anything good to India. In an in depth analysis, one will discover tremendous damages to society. With Modi's reckless adventures leading to suffering of millions of farmers, poor people, unemployed youth, small businessmen etc during the past 4 years and with no regret by him so far, Modi is unfit to rule and must be consigned to trash bin. This will start with Karnataka elections and will end with General elections 2019.