Modi is so much vulnerable today

 

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Akhilesh Yadav was first to discover that Modi's winning spree is in fact is defeat of other parties divided. Ahead of Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls he reached out to his arch rival BSP Supremo Mayawati for exploring national interest in defeating Modi rather than fighting among themselves. And BJP's 2014 victory of Gorakhpur & Phulpur by over few lakh votes got inverted into defeat in 2018, by few lakh votes in the hands of SP+BSP. Just double digit winning of Gujarat elections and falling short of majority in Karnataka elections and subsequent unethical adventures by BJP, Modi & Co that compelled BJP new CM Yedurappa resign with in 55 hours, left Modi & BJP so much vulnerable they stand top of non performance, corruption, subversion of institutions, economy in shambles, ever rising crude oil prices threatening economic disasters and fiscal deficits makes winning 2019 general elections with just under 31% popular vote share an impossible task, with opposition getting united with a single objective of defeating BJP, everywhere. 

It is worry some for the BJP that the Karnataka setback has shown that the extra effort put in by Narendra Modi by raising the number of his rallies to 21 in the state did not pay dividends. BJP might have fared worse if Modi had stuck to his original plan to address 15 public meetings. In hindsight, it might have been better for the BJP if it had conceded defeat when it saw that it had fallen short of the target of 112 in the 224-member House. Instead, by opting for a floor test, Modi & Amit Shah combine provoked all the avoidable controversies about horse-trading and corruption and to cover up resorted to innumerable lies and lost credibility. Congress party releasing audio clips of BS Yedurappa, his son Vijayendra, BJP leaders Muralidhar Rao and Sriramulu had sealed the BJP’s fate. The potential turncoats in the Congress-JD(S) coalition were doubly convinced that siding with the BJP was a bad idea. With Modi losing his cutting edge as the party's only star campaigner and any hint that he can no longer enable the party to cross the winning line is a major concern when the BJP faces crucial assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in next few months' time. The burden he already carries as the spearhead of the BJP's campaign will become heavier after the Karnataka outcome.

Supreme Court saves democracy

The fast-changing political scenario in Karnataka, where BJP & Congress-JD(S) alliance were trying to outsmart each other in reaching the magical figure of 112, has not only kept the political pundits on tenterhook but the Supreme Court judges had also to go through the sleepless night and restive day in deciding their legal battle. The battle to form the government not only confined to political arena but also spilled over to the court with Congress-JD(S) alliance approaching the Supreme Court by first challenging Karnataka governor decision to invite the BJP to form government and again on appointment of pro-tem speaker. The court first ordered floor test for BS Yeddyurappa by Sat May 19, 2018 4PM and later ordered the proceedings to be video recorded and telecast live to bring fairness to proceedings.

• Had SC not intervened, BS Yedurappa would have successfully completed horse trading and won floor test in stipulated 15 days time. And BJP, Modi & Co would have resorted to high decibel campaign that JDS & Congress MLAs defecting on their own will, getting attracted to Modi & BJP's policies and so on. But SC reducing floor test time to just 35 hours preempted all BJP's evil undemocratic efforts of horsetrading of MLAs. And BS Yedurappa was compelled to resign and avoid floor test.
• SC deserves credit for upholding the democratic values. But yet another Institution, the Governor of Karnataka has been reduced to just another wagging tail of shameless BJP. 
• Kudos to Justice A K Sikri (bench headed by him) and comprising Justice SA Bobde and Justice Ashok Bhushan, for fearlessly passing orders and saving democracy much to the discomfort of PM Modi and ruling party BJP.
• Utterly bitterly shame on BJP & Modi to have subverted the office of Governor and attempted horse trading to get themselves to power in Karnataka. Modi & BJP lost the right to talk about ethics now. The shameless Governor of Karnataka, Vajubhai Vala, must resign on his own or the President must sack him. Those who compel and impose fake nationalism were seen walking out when National Anthem was sung.
• The beauty of democracy is that whenever executive tends to misbehave autocratically, in violation of constitution, other institution(s) shall rise to fill the void and correct the coarse of events. Hence it is crucial to ensure independence of press & media and all its autonomous institutions.

Democracy is a device that insures we shall be governed 

no better than we deserve ... George Bernard Shaw

In the 1996 general elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha and AB Vajpayee was sworn in as the 10th Prime Minister of India, but failed to muster enough support from other parties to obtain a majority. He resigned after 13 days, when it became clear that he could not garner a majority. He just needed 1 or 2 MP's to scrape through the floor test, which could have been easily managed, unethically. But Vajpayee preferred to stick to ethics and resigned after delivering emotional farewell speech in Lok Sabha. On the contrary, Yedurappa having failed in all his shameless unethical efforts to buyout any of the JDS or Congress MLAs, attempted to deliver emotional speech on May 19, 2018 in Karnataka Assembly, emulating Vajpayee, is ridiculed by one and all. Shameless Yedurappa, BJP and its leadership.

Yedurappa resigns. But what about Governor Vajubhai Vala?

• Just two days after taking oath as the Chief Minister, Karnataka BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa resigned ahead of the crucial vote of confidence on the floor of the house.
• Outnumbered by the Congress-JD(S) combine, the BJP needed the support of 111 MLAs to sail through the vote of confidence on the floor of the house. It had only 104 and its efforts to buyout few MLAs from JDS and/or Congress fell flat leaving indelible blot on their face.
• In a surprise farewell speech in the Assembly, an emotional Yeddyurappa said he will campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and ensure that BJP wins all 28 LS seats in the state.
• The BJP never had the numbers, but the governor invited them to form government and generously gave 2 weeks time for horse-trading and winning trust motion on floor of the Assembly. But Supreme Court curtailed the time to just to 36 hours, only to avoid judicial scrutiny of actions of constitutional office of Governor.
• The Supreme Court today ordered live telecast of the floor test, when Congress challenged the appointment of KG Bopaiah (BJP MLA) as Protem Speaker who is not the senior most MLA but also with questionable past record as speaker.
• In a democracy we have to accept not only people's verdict but also the follow the rule of law.
• Earlier in the week, BJP which had emerged as the single largest party, was invited by the Governor Vajubhai Vala to form the government ignoring the post poll coalition between JDS and Congress, which together had 115 MLAs, well above the mark of simple majority of 112/222 which was challenged by JDS & Congress in Supreme Court for staying the swearing-in of BS Yedurappa as the Chief Minister. 
• "The Governor has invited us to form the government. The swearing in ceremony will be organised on Monday May 21, 2018. I have personally invited Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Chandrashekhar Rao and Chandrababu Naidu to attend the ceremony," Kumaraswamy told reporters.

Governor Vajubhai Vala's  baseless and senseless decision to invite minority BJP leader Yedurappa, ignoring JDS+Congress combine's leader HD Kumara Swamy with clear majority that lead to intense horse trading activity by BJP with unlimited budgets of several thousands of crores of rupees was thwarted by JDS & Congress leadership, cadre with support of Supreme Court interventions, almost all opposition leaders across many states, JDS & Congress MLAs unwilling to cross parties within hours of electing by public. Karnataka showed that the BJP's downslide has started with arrogant and audacious actions of Modi and Amit Shah, who lost their face with steep fall from their high moral ground to deep corruption. Their credibility is totally lost and this fiasco will have its telling effect on 2019 General Elections on Modi & BJP. The need of the hour is that Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala must resign and get out.

Karnataka Elections 2018 - Funny result

Karnataka elections 2018's fractured verdict has some funny outcomes. BJP gets highest seats of 104 with second best popular vote of 36%, while Congress with highest popular vote of 38% gets only 78 seats. Surprisingly, JDS with popular vote share of 18% gets 37 seats will form the government with Kumaraswamy as CM. With no clear indication of voter's verdict, Congress+JDS and BJP+ JDS breakaway MLA's claim to form government.

• Congress was quick to offer JDS (combined strength of JDS & Congress 115/222) CM position and outside support. But JDS supremo HD Deve Gowda accepting the offer with condition that Congress be part of coalition with DyCM, Speaker & 20 ministerial positions while JDS will take CM position and 14 cabinet berths. This appears sensible.
• In SR Bommai 1994 case, SC guidelines are clear: (1) Party with clear majority (2) Pre-poll largest alliance (3) Post-poll largest alliance (4) largest party withoiut clear majority ... in the same order. While no one qualifies for position 1 & 2, Congress-JDS alliance at 115/222 comes 3rd whereas BJP being largest party 104/222 comes 4th.
• But BJP with 104/222 MLAs will not allow JDS/Congress alliance form government so easily and sit in opposition benches. Governor is likely to invite BS Yedurappa, the leader of largest party i.e. BJP, to form government and prove majority with in 15 days on floor of the house. 
• This will only to facilitate BJP to break JDS disgruntled group of 13-15 MLAs and join BJP. 
• This would be murder of democracy - Governor ignoring JDS-Congress combined majority claim and inviting minority BJP to form Government without clear majority support and help them resort to horse trading.
• Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala is a hardcore RSS person and Modi's blind follower from Gujarat and hence much decency to follow democratic principles can't be expected.
• Now the burden on JDS and Congress to keep their elected MLAs intact and ensure vote against confidence motion on the floor of the house to bring down minority BSY government of BJP in next 15-20 days. No easy task!
• In Hyderabad-Karnataka and Bangalore regions (total 67 seats), where most Telugu people reside ... BJP won 26 seats, Congress won 34 seats and JDS won 7 seats. BJP paid bitter price for not fulfilling AP Reorganization Act 2014 provisions and promises made by Modi and MMS in RS regarding granting Special Category Status to AP and offending Telugu people worldwide. Had Modi & BJP been fair to Telugu people ... they would have easily won another  10-12 seats in these regions and get simple majority. Too big a price paid by BJP for their rogue & dirty politics.
• The fact that film actor Sai Kumar of BJP not only got defeated at Bagepalli constituency (30km from Hindupur) but was relegated to 4th position & lost his deposit is a matter of shame for BJP. But Modi & BJP will not learn lessons.

Had Congress and JDS formed pre-poll alliance and with combined popular vote share of 38+18=56% against BJP's 37% would have got some thing like 160/222 seats relegating BJP to insignificant status. Now they have to contend with 116/222 post poll alliance running the government on narrow majority. In the meantime BJP will resort to all sorts of unhealthy campaigns that they had penetrated into south, even though not. Rahul Gandhi had to blame himself for getting carried away by Siddaramaih's overconfidence unable encash opportunity of non-anti-incumbency in Karnataka. Rahul Gandhi learnt a very bitter lesson for his run upto to 2019 general elections to dislodge BJP-Modi at centre.

రాజకీయ రంగస్థలం!

రాజకీయమంటేనే అరాచకీయం. ఆ అరాచకీయాన్ని అద్భుతమైన ఆదర్శాల పేరు చెప్పి మరింత అపసవ్యంగా ఆవిష్కరించి, వికారంగా తీర్చిదిద్దేవాడు నాయకుడు. ఎన్నికల గాడిపొయ్యి మీద డేకీసాలో రాజకీయాన్ని పోసి, సీట్లతో మంటపెట్టి, ఓట్లతో కలబెట్టి, హామీల పోపు పెట్టి, కులమనే వెల్లుల్లిని ఫుల్లుగా దట్టించి, మతమనే మసాలాను ఘాటుగా పట్టించి, బాగా ఉడకనిచ్చి వేడివేడిగా వడ్డిస్తే ఉంటుంది చూశారూ ఆ మజా.. అధికారం నషాళానికి అర అంగుళం దూరంలో ఆగి కనిపిస్తుంది. దాంతోపాటు పక్కన నంజుకోవడానికి పచ్చ నోట్లు, పుంజుకోవడానికి పచ్చటి సీసాలు ఉంటే సొర్గం మన ముందట తడబడుతూ నిలబడ్డట్టే! ఐదేళ్లకోసారి పండక్కి మాత్రమే దొరికే ఈ స్పెషల్‌డిష్‌ తినేవాడికి ఇంపు. చూసేవాడికి కంపు!

రాజకీయాన్ని వండడం అంత తేలికేం కాదు. ఏమీ తెలియనట్టే కుట్రలు పన్నగలిగిన అమాయకత్వం... పైకి తెచ్చిన వాడినే వెన్నుపోటు పొడవగల అకుంఠిత విధేయత... జాతికి జరిగే నష్టాన్ని కూడా పట్టించుకోనంత నిస్వార్థపరత... దేశం నాశనమైపోయినా లెక్కచేయనంత దేశభక్తి... అనునిత్యం అతికినట్టు అబద్ధాలు చెప్పగలిగే నిజాయతీ... నిన్న సాయంవేళ ఇచ్చిన మాటను ఇవాళ పొద్దున్నే మరచిపోగలిగేంత జ్ఞాపకశక్తి... సిగ్గులేకుండా ఆత్మస్తుతి పరనింద చేయగల నిష్పాక్షికత... ధనికుల కోసం మాత్రమే ఆలోచించేంత దారిద్య్ర నిబద్ధత... బేవార్సు విధానాలకు భేషుగ్గా భాష్యం చెప్పగల సైద్ధాంతిక చతురత.. కుర్చీ కోసం ఇటు నుంచి ఎటైనా దుంకగల అ–చంచలత... ఇవన్నీ ఉన్నవాడే రాజకీయాన్ని రుచిగా వండి వార్చగలడు!!

కుల రహిత సమాజం కోసం కులతత్వాన్ని పెంచి పోషించగలిగే మహా నిబద్ధత... మతాతీత దేశం కోసం మారణహోమాన్ని రెచ్చగొట్టగలిగే లౌకికత ఉండడం అదనపు అర్హత. భూమి తనచుట్టూ తాను భ్రమణం చేస్తూ, సూర్యుడి చుట్టూ పరిభ్రమణం చేస్తుందట. కానీ మన నాయకుల ఫలితమా అని భారతదేశం కులం చుట్టూ భ్రమిస్తూ, మతం చుట్టూ పరిభ్రమిస్తోంది. కాలం గడిచేకొద్దీ కులం– మతం కాలగతిలో కలసిపోవడానికి బదులు కల్లోలమే సృష్టిస్తున్నాయి.

ఓట్ల కోసం, సీట్లకోసం నేతలు ఇప్పటిదాకా ప్రజలను కులాలు, మతాలు వారీగా మాత్రమే చీల్చారు. కులాలను, మతాలను కూడా చీల్చేయడం ఇప్పుడు మొదలైంది.

హిందువుల్ని కులాలుగా విడగొట్టి, ముస్లింలను మతంగా కొల్లగొట్టి, లౌక్యంగా గెలవడం నేర్చుకున్నాయి లౌకికవాద పార్టీలు. హిందువుల్ని మతంతో ఏకం చేసి, ముస్లిముల్లో సున్నీ, షియా, తలాఖ్‌ల తకరారు పెట్టి ‘అమిత’ చాతుర్యం చూపారు బీజేపీ వారు. దీనికి దీటుగా, పోటీగా ఇప్పుడు ఏకంగా హిందూ మతాన్నే ముక్కచెక్కలు చేయడానికి లెక్కలేశారు కాంగ్రెస్‌వారు.

ఓట్లొస్తే చాలు, సీట్లొస్తే చాలు, కుర్చీలో దర్జాగా కొలువుదీరితే చాలు! కాకి వాలిన కారులో కూర్చోవడమే నచ్చని పరమ హేతువాది... మూఢ నమ్మకాలకు వ్యతిరేకంగా చట్టం చేసి కూడా, మంత్రించిన నిమ్మకాయ చేతిలో ఉంటే తప్ప ప్రచారం చేయలేని నిష్ఠా గరిష్ఠుడు... దేవుడిని కొలిచే మఠాధిపతులను తప్ప దేవుళ్లను నమ్మని నాస్తిక శిఖామణి ఇప్పుడు.. మోడీని పడగొట్టేందుకు తొడగొడుతున్న దేశ రాజకీయ యోధులకు ఆదర్శప్రాయుడు! కర్ణాటకను గేమ్‌ ఛేంజర్‌గా భావిస్తూ, సిద్దూ [సిధ్ధరామయ్య] ప్రయోగాన్ని, ఫలితాన్ని చూసి అదే మార్గంలో పయనించాలని దేశంలోని నేతలంతా తహతహలాడుతున్నారు! భశుం!!

చివరాఖరు: గోరఖ్‌పూర్‌ ఎన్నికల్లో బీజేపీ ఓడిపోయిన తర్వాత, పార్లమెంటు సెంట్రల్‌హాల్లో ప్రతిపక్ష ఎంపీలంతా, మోదీ నిరాదరణకు గురైన బీజేపీ అగ్రనేత మురళీమనోహర్‌ జోషికి శుభాకాంక్షలు చెప్పడం మొదలుపెట్టారట. ఆయన కూడా మందహాసంతో వాటిని స్వీకరించారట. ఇదంతా చూస్తున్న మంత్రి ధర్మేంద్ర ప్రధాన్‌... జోషి వద్దకు వచ్చి ‘మీరిలా చేయడం ఏమీ బాగాలేదు. తప్పుడు సంకేతాలు వెళతాయి’ అన్నారట. ‘నేను ఎప్పుడేం చేయాలో చెప్పేంత వాడివయ్యావా నువ్వు’ అని గద్దించారట జోషి. మోదీ మీద విపక్షీయులకే కాదు; స్వపక్షీయులకూ ఎంత కోపం ఉందో ఇంతకుమించి చెప్పాలా?

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TS and AP demands fresh allocations of Krishna river water.

KWDT II (Krishna Water Disputes Tribunal) II headed by Justice Brijesh Kumar in its award of 2010 allocated, over and above assured waters at 65% dependability allocated by KWDT I by Justice RS Bachavat during 1973, at 75% dependability and entire average availability of 2578 TMC as against 2060 TMC allocated by KWDT I without setting up any mechanism to ensure lower riparian states get their rightful share of waters at all times. This was contested in Supreme Court by AP and TS by an SLP (Special Leave Petition). In India, rivers being a state subject upper riparian states have natural advantages and lower riparian states suffer as reflected by 2015 Krishna river inflows into AP & TS at meager 80 TMC against usual 1000-1500 TMC in a good year. While Maharashtra and Karnataka dams were full AP & TS dams were empty with no crop in Krishna delta unheard over the past 150 years and unable to even meet drinking water needs.

While Bachavat tribunal was considerate towards lower riparian state of AP (including TS) by allowing unallocated and surplus waters to them with the contention they would suffer floods as well as lean year less inflows. While AP and TS were entangled in bifurcation issues, Maharashtra & Karnataka were able to convince Brijesh Kumar tribunal and get entire waters allocated depriving AP and TS (2578-2060=528-201) to the tune of 327 TMC of water. This has dealt deadly blow to several projects under construction to lift Srisailam waters to drought prone Rayalaseema and Mahboobnagar & Nalgonda districts dependent on unallocated surplus waters (while allocated waters are hardly sufficient for Krishna delta and NS Dam command area users).

The objective of Tribunal and River Water Management Board is to regulate upper riparian state(s) and ensure lower riparian state(s) gets their rightful shares of waters at all times.

Riparian rights, briefly are:
1. The right of a riparian owner to appropriate the water is limited to its use for such purpose, to such an extent and in such a way as will not be inconsistent with a similar use by the lower owners.
2. River waters shall be used with in the basin only.
3. The reasonable use of the water by a riparian owner is subject to the downstream riparian owners 'riparian right' to receive waters undiminished in flow and quality.
4. The doctrine of equitable apportionment alone, however, establishes only the equal right of each riparian to an equitable share in the benefits of the river.
5. Whenever new state were to come into existence will be on an "equal footing" with the original states.

Hence TS and AP's contention that consequent to formation of Telangana State during 2014, Krishna waters allocation must start afresh listening to all states contentions afresh including new state of Telangana is consistent with the general principles of riparian rights.However, central government submitting its view as the matter should be apportioned between AP and TS is not only contrary to general principles of riparian rights but also devoid of any merit.

Finally Pattiseema waters diversion can't be shared with Krishna water allottees for the following reasons:-
1. Pattiseema LI scheme diverts Godavari flood waste waters, not allocated waters.
2. Pattiseema is not a gravity flow project but an Lift Irrigation project involving huge capital & operational expenses.
3. Pattiseema is a purely AP state's temporary project and would get closed once Polavaram project becomes operational at a later date.
4. Pattiseema LI scheme was neither funded by Centre nor by Planning Commission.
5. As and when Polavaram becomes operational, quantity of Godavari waters diverted to Krishna basin, will definitely be shared with Krishna riparian rights owners i.e. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.