BJP in AP - dilemma is suicidal

1. During the course of AP Reorganization Bill, BJP cooperated with Congress totally, ignoring the assurance given by LK Advani that unjust act will not be allowed to go through.
2. Subsequently it was BJP's Venkaiah Naidu and Arun Jaitley who coined "Special Category Status" for AP for a period of 10 years which Congress had reduced to 5 years as promise outside the bill & Act.
3. BJP admitted TDP into its NDA fold during 2014 elections (keeping aside the  personal animosity of Modi against Chandrababu Naidu during the period of Gujarat Riots 2002 etc.) with the sole objective of grabbing power and absolute majority for BJP was highly uncertain.
4. Modi during election campaign has made umpteen promises to residual AP many more beyond the AP Reorganization Act which are still reverberating in the ears of AP people.
5. BJP's Hari Babu could win Visakhapatnam LS seat with Vizag Railway Zone as his top most item during campaign.
6. Modi as PM has completely ignored not only his promises but also center's obligations to assist AP for its development, Polavaram project, new capital construction and so on and released minuscule amounts during the past 4 years. At this rate fulfilling promises and obligations would take 50-100 years.
7. So many things were said during the past 4 years, but people of AP feel totally let down by BJP, much worse than by Congress during 2014. Modi came out in his true colors and people of AP has lost faith in him and BJP whatsoever and if polls were held today BJP may not get even 1% votes, worse than Congress would get. Having cooperated with BJP for Jagan to come out of his CBI & ED corruption cases, YSRCP's vote base has deteriorated significantly. Pawan Kalyan with his confusing stances since an year and suddenly taking U-turn and started cooperating with BJP for undisclosed reasons too has lost his charm & credibility.
8. Today's opinion poll results in social media, even though not very authentic, but does reflect reality. TDP's popular support, with NOTA excluded, is about 60% with its only rival YSRCP at less than 20%, Pawan Kalyan's Janasena at 15% and Congress, BJP & others at 5%.
   
   
9. In real polls next year with large rural population included, popular support to TDP may very well exceed 65%. 

BJP committed suicide in AP with Modi's arrogance at its peak. With North & West uncertain, South and East in the hands of popular regional parties, BJP/NDA's 2019 tally may not exceed 100/150, with most allies already exited NDA. Modi saddled with negatives like economic destruction, agrarian distress, unemployment and so on, has no achievements to present to people and blaming Congress etc even after 5 years of being in power will not yield any benefit to him. Most BJP-Modi fans are openly talking that Congress was better with all its corruption and scams. While Central Government has never ever revealed complete truths to nation in the past, but it has also refrained from blatant lies. But Modi's administration has crossed all limits of decency and hurls at blatant lies at the fall of hat bringing down its own credibility. Today, Modi has more enemies inside BJP than outside. BJP leaders in AP are scared of meeting public and are confining themselves to press meets now and then. Their briefings are limited to reproduction of what BJP says in Delhi. Even a BJP MP and an Ex BJP Minister who are reluctant to carry the burden of BJP and being friends of Chandrababu Naidu are likely to join TDP before 2019 elections. 

Ever since 1977, non-congress parties has been proving time and again that they are worthy to sit in opposition benches only and squandered away every opportunity given to them with their shortsightedness, strongheadedness, insufficient vision to rule a diverse nation like India.

Nandyal bypoll result - Jagan lives in denial

• The Nandyal by-election was projected to be seen as a referendum on the three years of the AP's TDP chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's rule.
• 25 years ago, the TDP under NT Rama Rao conceded a walkover in Nandyal for the Lok Sabha bypoll, enabling Telugu bidda PV Narsimha Rao win the seat after becoming prime minister. 
• In 2014, YSRCP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy won defeating TDP's Silpa Mohan Reddy by a slender majority of 2% votes. 
• In an extremely unethical political situation, Late Bhuma Nagi Reddy's nephew is pitted as TDP's candidate against YSRCP's Silpa Mohan Reddy after a spate of defections and, AP Speaker doing nothing about the defections, and due to death of TDP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy.
• The established norm is that when an MP or MLA dies mid-term, the party holding the seat is allowed a no-contest, with the other party not putting up a candidate. Nandyal is a peculiar situation, where both the YSRCP and the candidate's family (of TDP) asked each other to back off, making a contest inevitable.
• Naidu has taken the by-election very seriously. He has involved all party seniors, and has campaigned extensively himself, making it a prestigious battle. The TDP chief has personally reached out to different community leaders, distributing sops to the electorate to ensure victory for the ruling party.
• Naidu even issued a subtle threat to those who wouldn't vote for the TDP, saying he will have nothing to do with those villages. He said, "You take pension doled out by my government, walk on the roads laid by my administration, take ration and use the glow of the streetlights erected by us. Why wouldn't you vote for us?"
• Naidu keeping BJP state leaders out of election campaign and avoiding Muslims wrath, who are 20% of voters, was a good strategy that paid off.
• Nandyal is the first political test for Nara Lokesh, Naidu's son, party general secretary and the state IT minister. It is one thing to lure Opposition MLAs to the ruling camp by using political clout, and quite another to win an election. The victory proved Lokesh's credentials as a politician. 
• For the YSRCP, Nandyal was the best chance to show anti-incumbency. Its loss is likely to result in more migrations from YSRCP to TDP in the next two years. 
• While TDP is largely seen as a Kamma dominated party, YSRCP has a larger Reddy community presence. In the Reddy vs Reddy fierce battle, YSRCP's defeat confirmed weakened Reddy community support to YSRCP that Jagan enjoyed in the past. 
• Nandyal has voters of 20% Muslims & 10% Vysyas and large Dalits as well. TDP victory is seen as its patronization by Muslims, Vysyas & Dalits apart from Reddys as well.
• The Nandyal defeat is severe setback for Prashant Kishore, YSRCP strategist for 2019. Kishor was introduced to the party three months ago, with Jagan saying that Kishor will help them in 'Mission 2019'. It is rumored that Kishor charged Jagan hefty fees of Rs.50 crores.
• Nothing will change for the people of Nandyal. Politics in India, especially that in the Rayalaseema region of AP, is practised that members of one or two families are allowed hegemony over a constituency for decades. Nandyal is no exception as the leaders move from one party to another and their support base moves with them, like a herd.
• Both TDP & YSRCP are believed to have spent about Rs.500 crores and vote-for-cash is rumored between Rs.2,000 & Rs.5,000. 

If we don't learn on our own, adversity will teach us lessons 

Since 2004 Nandyal was bastion of Reddys from Congress & later YSR Congress. With this bypoll TDP regained its lost hold after two decades. Extending - it indicates erosion of Jagan's grip in Rayalaseema due to his arrogance and vulgar abuses. Roja filled up where ever there were gaps in abuses. Even after, Jagan lives in denial and will only ruin himself and YSRCP. Now Jagan will have uphill task to hold his folks together with 2019 indications clearly favoring TDP & Chandrababu Naidu. The highlight of this TDP's win is that it fought out alone without involving BJP leaders in campaigning and soliciting support of Pawan Kalyan, whose support probably might have helped TDP winning over YSRCP in 2014 general election with slender majorities in many constituencies.

Jagan wants Chandrababu Naidu to be killed? Why?

• Jagan is desperate to win Nandyal bye election otherwise his party (YSRCP) getting empty prior to 2019 elections is not ruled out.
• Naidu is also desperate to win Nandyal bye poll, otherwise Jagan will project Nandyal victory for him as semifinal victory and 2019 victory is assured and countering caste based polarization becomes an uphill task for Naidu in 2019 elections.
• With stakes high, both sides are spending money like water and entire state leadership is campaigning at Nandyal.
• Rate of Rs.5,000 per vote is the 'talk of the town' and total expense over Rs.500 crores!
• Jagan wanted Chandra Babu Naidu shot dead in his election speech for alleged electoral promises unfulfilled etc and repeating again after few days despite EC's asking him explanation indicates his impatience and reflects his fears that as long as Naidu is alive he can't ascend to the throne of CM.
• Prashant Kishore's back room strategy is also a possibility. Controversies create more publicity without expense.
• India’s political discourse has deteriorated to new lows during 2014 elections.
• By calling for the killing of a rival, Jagan surpassed all the lows.

Jagan's outbursts will not fetch him any new votes but will surely  end up losing many neutral votes. By his killer instincts Jagan has more or less conceded defeat at Nandyal bye poll. The actual result is a matter of time.

Venkaiah Naidu nominated for Vice President. Why?

Senior BJP leader and party veteran Venkaiah Naidu was picked up as the ruling NDA's vice-presidential candidate to contest against opposition nominee Gopalkrishna Gandhi. Naidu's name was finalised at a meeting of the BJP parliamentary board here attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, party president Amit Shah and other senior party leaders. There was no happiness in Venkaiah Naidu's face, rather he was sad for punishment meted out to him.

• Why was the 68-year-old leader was coerced to file his nomination for ornamental Vice President position? 
• Naidu openly expressed his desire to continue as Union Minister and continue in active politics. 
• This is despite and not showing any interest in either President or Vice President positions, which are ornamental positions. Not once but several times.
• Why was his preference ignored and decision made against his wishes? 
• Ramnath Kovind, who was nobody when Naidu was National President of BJP, was already nominated for President's post. Even Modi was his junior in party. 
• Nominating Naidu to work under Kovind is nothing short of an insult. 
• This is in contradiction to Modi's earlier assertion not to sacrifice anyone from his cabinet for President & Vice President positions. 
• This is analogous to Congress style of destroying an active & powerful person coercing him to resign and accept ignominious positions like Governor and afterwards fade out.

--------------------------------------

• Venkaiah Naidu was one of the first persons in BJP to switch loyalties from Advani and join the rogue group headed by Modi in 2013. He stood as his confident and trouble shooter all these years and was suddenly shown the exit door by Modi. Why? What are the real reasons?
• In 2002, AP CM Chandrababu Naidu was vehement that Modi should resign as Gujarat CM in the wake of Gujarat Riots. Chandrababu Naidu even made statement that he would arrest Modi if he enters AP. When Modi tried to meet Chandrababu Naidu at Delhi to explain Gujarat riots matters, he was denied appointment by Babu. 
• After Modi became PM, Chandrababu Naidu (AP CM now) tried to bend backwards to please him but that didn't cut ice with Modi. 
• Venkaiah Naidu and Chandrababu Naidu belongs to neighboring districts, same caste and very close to each other for over 4 decades. Modi never trusted either of these two Naidu's except using them.
• Of late Venkaiah Naidu's confidential remarks that Modi is becoming increasingly inaccessible even to his cabinet and his aversion to listen to genuinely good things must have reached Modi.
• Contradiction with Amit Shah regarding BJP to grow independently breaking alliance with TDP in TS & AP is another point of friction.
• Venkaiah Naidu prevailing over Telangana's BJP leaders to break its TDP alliance was another issue with Amit Shah.
• AP BJP leaders who don't like Venkaiah Naidu are of the opinion that breaking away with TDP and allying with YCP would get them greater share of power positions than what Naidu was granting them. The elements led by Ram Madhav convinced Amit Shah.
• Chandra Babu Naidu being a tough bargainer would never yield even a single extra position where BJP is not fairly stronger than TDP. That irks BJP state leaders who wants to piggy ride on TDP's back to power positions .
• Amit Shah is convinced that unless Venkaiah Naidu is eased out of BJP and alliance broken with TDP, junior leaders in AP & TS, BJP won't grow in AP. While Modi knew the reality and prevailed so far, has now yielded to Amit Shah & Co.
• Now it is a matter of time, BJP will break alliance with TDP and ally with YCP well before 2019 elections and Jagan surrendering to BJP as quid pro quo favor to go soft on his CBI & ED cases. 
• Chandra Babu Naidu may very well pay huge price for trusting Modi even before 2014 election results. Intelligence is jumping out of sinking ship well in advance. Chandra Babu Naidu should preemptively walk out of NDA and go to public explaining injustices meted out to AP by Modi & Co.
• And this would make Ex-Congress leaders in BJP like Purandeshwari, Kavuri Sambasiva Rao, Kanna Lakshminarayana etc, BJP Kapu leaders like Somu Veerraju and TS BJP leaders like M.Krishna Reddy etc many more happy.
• But BJP, with no grass roots cadres in rural areas and their ideologies vague and no worthwhile poor & peasant policies, making inroads into rural AP & TS is an uphill task.

My View:

If by a good chance, Chandra Babu Naidu and KCR gets re-elcted with BJP opposing them, BJP will get doomed and suffer severe damage in Telugu states of AP & TS. Naidu should assert his forgotten pride of Telugu people and make Modi's injustices transparent to Telugu people. Naidu & KCR should remember development is not the prime thing concerning people. Above that are good governance, minimal corruption, long term vision and taking care of poor & peasants. Needless to say, Venkaiah Naidu paid a bitter price for keeping politics above everything. He should have been more loyal to his motherland - the state of AP rather than Modi & BJP for their selfish dirty politics which inflicted injustice to AP.  Advani would be smiling for Venkaiah Naidu's debasement for ditching him in preference to rising Modi in 2013.