WTO and globalisation

The World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1995. Two major changes agreed were: (i)  not to impose import duties in excess of certain agreed rates and (ii) not to manufacture a patented item using alternate process. 

• The large-scale imports of goods from China taking place at present is a consequence of  provision (i) of the WTO which we willingly accepted.
• The provision (ii) restricted the growth of our pharmaceutical companies.
• The drugs invented by MNCs were hitherto produced by our pharma companies using alternate processes and making them available at a fraction of the MNC's price and that freedom was lost.
• The major benefit expected from WTO was that our farmers will be able to export their produce to the developed countries and get much higher prices. But the developed countries fudged the rules of the WTO and continued to provide subsidies to their farmers and that deprived our farmers ability to export their goods. 
• Thus the WTO and the globalisation has become largely a losing proposition for us. It has even become a losing proposition for developed countries like USA as well. They find that their jobs are disappearing. 
• The WTO needs to shape up for the US to stay a part of it, said former Trump trade advisor Dan DiMicco. He further said that WTO has enabled China’s bad behavior and allowed the country to manipulate its currency from 1995 to 2015. Nobody has held them accountable.
• President Donald Trump told that the WTO has treated the US “very badly". Trump also said "I hope they change their ways. We’re not planning anything now, but if they don’t treat us properly we will be doing something.” Trump told his advisors, “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the US"
• India has walked out of the WTO mini-ministerial being held in Geneva in July 2006 to thrash out the thorny agriculture and industrial tariff issues, with the US refusing to agree for wider cuts in farm subsidies. The Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said: "We came here to negotiate, but there is no space for negotiations. We are on 8 to 9% growth. I've come here looking for a trade deal which helps me to reach 10 to 11%. I have not come here to get a trade deal which makes me go to 4 or 5%." 
• The failure of WTO to move ahead in framing rules for global trade means that globalization is retreating.
• Our Mughal rulers thought that by allowing the British to trade in India will be beneficial for the country. Similarly, we have agreed and signed the WTO treaty because we thought we would get foreign investments and access to foreign markets for our exports.
• The globalisation under the Mughal rulers and the WTO are fundamentally similar. In both the cases, we ceded our sovereign rights willingly in the belief that the benefits will be more than the costs. In the former case the benefits to us were less than the costs and that arose Mahatma Gandhi and we retracted from that globalisation. Very much the same is happening with the WTO today.
• The globalisation succeeds only if it provides more benefits than costs to all the member countries. We can today walk out of the WTO because it is not beneficial to us. People are the ultimate sovereign and no power on earth can take their sovereignty away. The people will rise no matter how strong the forces of globalisation are.
• The challenge is to inform the people of the benefits and costs of globalisation to make an informed choice to withdraw or not. The worry is that our intellectuals will get coopted and misinform the people of the true costs of present globalisation.
• Our government should wake up, walk out of WTO and start supporting domestic businesses instead of running after MNCs.

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Copying western models and implementing in India without proper groundwork is futile. The more we stay in WTO and globalisation, the more our poor and peasants would lose and suffer. Since the present WTO model can't be modified so easily due to the influence of vested interests like China, the only option India has is that it should walk out of WTO and work in the direction of mutually beneficial bilateral treaties and self-sufficiency.

Universal health coverage (UHC)

• UHC is firmly based on the WHO constitution of 1948 declaring health a fundamental human right and on the Health for All agenda set by the Alma Ata declaration in 1978. UHC cuts across all of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and brings hope of better health and protection for the world’s poorest.
• Universal health coverage (UHC) means that all people and communities can use the promotive, preventive, curative, rehabilitative and palliative health services they need, of sufficient quality to be effective, while also ensuring that the use of these services does not expose the user to financial hardship.
• There is no single, best path for reforming health financing arrangements to move systems closer to universal health coverage, i.e. to improve access to needed, effective services while protecting users from financial ruin.
• In most countries, the government pays for health care provided by private companies. These include the systems in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Singapore, and Switzerland. United States also provides subsidies to health insurance companies through Obamacare. 
• When the government both pays for and provides the services, that is socialized medicine. The United Kingdom has this. The United States has it for its veterans and the armed forces.
• Countries often combine universal health coverage with other systems to introduce competition. These include pay as you go, prepay, and private insurance models. Allowing these options can lower costs, expand choice, or improve care.

HEALTH CARE IN INDIA

• Health care is a service that people would very much rather not have to use. Of the total health spending in India, the government contributes just 29%. In the UK, the government's share is 83%. For many other countries, this figure ranges between 45% and 55%. As a proportion of GDP, India spends just 1.2% on health while US spends about 8.3% of its GDP. 
• For ensuring health to all, the government's health care spending must be increased from the present 1.2% to 5% very quickly and to 8-10% if necessary. As government sector fails to provide primary and secondary medical care, around 80% of these services were being provided by the private sector and 70% by the small hospitals and individuals doctors. 
• Only a healthy nation can be happy, productive and prosperous.
• Private healthcare expenditure amounts to around 4% of the GDP. Of this, health insurance accounts for 5-10% of expenditure, employers account for around 9% while personal expenditure amounts to an astounding 82%.
• Barely 10-15% of the population has some form of insurance coverage. 40% households report loss of income during illness. Nearly 8-9% of households takes loans to meet their medical expenses. Meeting healthcare expenses is one of the major concerns for households.
• Nearly 22% of urban and 33% of rural households (all India 30%) are financially-vulnerable with negative surplus income due to private healthcare expenses. For such households, a medical emergency would tip them over the financial edge. The present 30% vulnerable households will rise to 86% in case of an additional burden of Rs. 1 lakh towards medical expenses.
• Only 34% households in India said that they can “easily” meet their medical expenses. More than half of metro households (53%) fall in this category.
• While private health insurance coverage is on the rise, this system is far from efficient to meet the needs of diverse population segments. The absence of a comprehensive health insurance is pushing already vulnerable households below the poverty line at the rate of 3.4% (4 crores) of population, annually.
• The sheer cost of providing quality health care makes universal health care a large expense for governments.
• The key issue is when a large majority of population is feeling overwhelmed by the cost of healthcare, should it be left to the supermarkets to promote healthy living and create systems where medical services can be attained in a timely and cost-effective manner? Or do policy-makers need to look at “healthcare” as a key element of the economic well-being of the country?

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ADVANTAGES OF UHC

• When governments pay for health care, they work to ensure doctors and hospitals provide quality care at a reasonable cost. They must collect and analyze data. They can also use their purchasing power to influence health care providers.
• UHC lowers health care costs for an economy. The government controls the price of medication and medical services through negotiation and regulation.
• UHC eliminates the administrative costs of a dealing with different private health insurers. Doctors only deal with one government agency. It standardizes billing procedures and coverage rules.
• UHC forces hospitals and doctors to provide the same standard of service at a low cost. In a competitive environment like the United States, health care providers focus on new technology. They offer expensive services and pay doctors more. They try to compete by targeting the wealthy. They charge more to get a higher profit. It leads to higher costs.
• Universal health care creates a healthier workforce. Preventive care reduces the need for expensive emergency room usage. Before Obamacare, 46% of emergency room patients went because they had no other place to go. They used the emergency room as their primary care physician. 
• Early childhood care prevents future social costs. These include crime, welfare dependency, and health issues. Health education teaches families how to make healthy lifestyle choices, preventing chronic diseases.
• Governments can impose regulations and taxes to guide the population toward healthier choices. Regulations make unhealthy choices, such as drugs, illegal. Taxes, such as those on cigarettes and alcohol, make them more expensive.

DISADVANTAGES OF UHC

• Universal health care forces healthy people to pay for others' medical care.
• Chronic diseases, like diabetes and heart disease, make up 85% of health care costs. These diseases can often be prevented with lifestyle choices. The sickest 5% of the population consume 50% of total health care costs. The healthiest 50% consume only 3% of the nation's health care costs. 
• With free universal health care, people may not be as careful with their health. The don't have the financial incentive to do so. Without a copay, people might overuse emergency rooms and doctors.
• Most universal health systems report long wait times for elective procedures. The government focuses on providing basic and emergency health care. 
• Governments limit payment amounts to keep costs low. Doctors have less incentive to provide quality care if they aren't well paid. They might spend less time per patient to keep their costs down. They have less funding for new life-saving technologies.
• Health care costs overwhelm government budgets. Some Canadian provinces spend 40% of their budget on health care. That reduces funding for other programs like education and infrastructure.
• To cut costs, the government may limit services with a low probability of success. It may not cover drugs for rare conditions. It may prefer palliative care over expensive end-of-life care.
• On the other hand, the U.S. medical system does a heroic job of saving lives, but at a cost. 
• Care for patients in the last 6 years of life makes up one-fourth of the Medicare budget. In their last month of life, half go to the emergency room. One-third wind up in the intensive care unit. One-fifth undergo surgery.

Read source article 2

The Heritage Index of Economic Freedom 2018, which ranks the pecuniary freedom of citizens, found that the top ten nations in the list all had universal healthcare schemes. Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Switzerland, and Denmark are among the the top ten countries. The United States is ranked 12 and India ranked 130 out of 180 countries. Medical insurance is one of the systems most abused anywhere in the world. In India, it is more so. The drug companies, corporate hospitals, doctors and diagnostic services form cartel and loot gullible patients and inefficient insurance companies. This leads to ever increasing health insurance premiums with no matching quality services. This must stop. 

UHC in India with annual spend of over Rs.800,000 crores (@5% of GDP of $2.6 trillion in 2016) requires gigantic organisation(s) and is no easy task. But that is the least that should be done for India to become healthy, productive and prosper. Every year we find an impassioned paragraph in FM's budget speeches and that is the end of it. But so far governments have neglected health care and private sector exploiting and pushing 4 crore people annually below poverty line is a matter of national shame. 

Health insurance increases the costs, burdens doctors, patients compelled to follow their procedures and promotes corruption. Government taxing its citizens to pay for health care where services are government-owned, and service providers are government employees is the least cost and best option but requires intense efforts are needed for managing multiple layers of the organisations efficiently, transparently while being vigilant. Primary care must be in public sector only, while secondary health and tertiary health care could be in both public and private sectors.

World Health Organization Ranking of India  is at 112 of 190 countries. USA is at 37, Pakistan at 122, Bangladesh at 88, Sri Lanka at 76, Nepal at 150, China at 144 indicates pathetic conditions prevailing in our health care sector.

Democracy is in decline

DEMOCRACY INDEX

• The Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) latest Democracy Index 2016 shows 72 countries experienced a decline in democratic values last year. Countries with declining levels of democracy outnumbered those becoming more democratic by more than 2 to 1.
• The EIU’s Democracy Index measures the state of democracy by rating electoral processes and pluralism, the state of civil liberties, the functioning of government, political participation and political culture in more than 160 countries worldwide. 
• World strongest democracies are (1) Norway (2) Iceland (3) Sweden (4) New Zealand (5) Denmark (6) Canada & Ireland (8) Switzerland (9) Finland and (10) Australia in the same order.

• Less than half (49%) the world’s population lives in a democracy of some sort, and only 4.5% reside in a “full democracy.” This is a steep decline from 2015, when it was just under 9%.

• The US is now a flawed democracy. This dramatic decline of US getting demoted to a “flawed democracy,” is as a result of low public confidence in the government in evidence prior to the presidential election that saw Donald Trump become president.
• In the EU referendum, 72% of the UK population turned out to vote, compared to an average of 63% in general elections over the past decade. The UK also saw a marked increase in membership of political parties. As a result, Britain’s democracy score has gone up from 8.31 in 2015 to 8.36 this year, placing it 16th among the “full democracies.”
• The former communist bloc in Eastern Europe has experienced the most significant regression since 2006. There is widespread disenchantment with democracy, with 18 countries in regression on its democratic trajectory and the remaining nine stalling to various degrees. Estonia ranks the highest, at number 29. 
• Sub-Saharan Africa is beating Eastern Europe but is on the back foot in terms of formal democracy. The region has made very little progress, suggesting that it still has a long way to go to improve aspects such as pluralism, the functioning of government and civil liberties, amongst others. Mauritius tops the regional list and is also the only country in the region to be considered a full democracy.
• Latin America has been ahead and last year saw the region supporting pro-market candidates stepping into office. However, Uruguay is the only country to make it into the list of “full democracies,” at number 19.
• After achieving significant headway over the past decade, Asia’s score stagnated in 2016 (5.7), and is lagging behind Latin America (6.3), Europe (8.4) and North America (8.6). Japan is the highest rated, at number 20, which also makes it top of the list of flawed democracies.
• In the Arab countries, Tunisia has slipped by 12 places in the global ranking, putting it toward the bottom of the list of flawed democracies.
• The report confirms that the quality of democracy has receded in the world as more and more of the electorate has been left disenchanted. However, it would appear that there is a silver lining in the increased political participation this has led to in many parts of the world.

INDIA IMPROVES DEMOCRACY INDEX; CIVIL LIBERTIES CURTAILED

• Democracy Index 2016: Revenge Of The Deplorables published by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has yet again termed India a flawed democracy. In the index published by the magazine, India is ranked 32 out 165 nations. Last year India was ranked 35 on the same index. The parameters include electoral processes, functioning of government, political participation, political culture and civil liberties.
• Although India ranked below USA on the overall index, scores better than the USA on all parameters except one. India’s political culture is worse than some authoritarian regimes like China and Sub Saharan African nations like Sierra Leone. 
• Since the Narendra Modi government came to power, there has been a significant improvement in functioning of the government and political participation in India. However, this has been accompanied by a decline in civil liberties and political culture.
• It seeks data from the World Values Survey (WVS) about the proportion of a country’s population that thinks “it would be fairly good to have a strong leader who doesn’t bother with parliament or elections.” 

Political leaders with majority succumbing to temptations and 

overriding institutional procedures in the garb of speed and efficiency 

are betraying the sacrifices made by our freedom fighters and founding fathers 

in establishing the sovereign republic of India ... Manmohan Singh

Since 2014, there is gradual deterioration in democratic governance by Prime Minister Modi with his cabinet ignored, institutions undermined, parliament irrelevant, bureaucracy subverted, election commission influenced, state governments disrespected, media brought to knees, all decisions originating from PMO and quack advises taking precedence over expert advisers and decisions hurriedly implemented. This type of governance is similar to that of Nizams and erstwhile Maharajas, in history books, but unacceptable in 21st century democracies where transparency & accountability are paramount with discretion eliminated. In democratic governance, as a matter of rule, defined procedure must be followed by all including by Prime Minister. The fears of Ambedkar are coming true - Modi's regime is nothing short of establishing Hindu Raj, which in the Indian context meant unbridled rule of the majority community, the Hindus. Modi’s penchant has a chilling similarity with Mussolini's Fascist Italy regime where politics starts to be less concerned with the act of governing people in an efficient way, for instance, in solving their economic problems and social well being. Instead, it is focused more on the spectacle of power, on the visual and impressive display of symbols, myths and rituals. In short India's democracy is in peril!

Poor people don't work. Why?

• Poverty is not just life below the poverty line, its living under financial stress, where it is difficult to maintain quality of life. A life in poverty means living deprived of sufficient food and nutrition, education, proper shelter, sanitation, clean water and so on. This points to the need of seeing poverty as a multidimensional phenomenon.
• We are all children of one and the same God and, therefore, are absolutely equal.
• Poverty in India is attributable to (i) social inequality leading to exclusion and marginalization (ii) illiteracy (iii) population (iv) gender inequality (v) unequal distribution of wealth (vi) faulty economic reforms (vii) corruption and (vii) colonial rule.
• India has more than 400 million (30% of total population) people under the poverty line. In 1947 when colonial British left India, they left 70% Indians in deep poverty. Seven decades later, poverty is down to 30% despite the multi fold increase in population. Despite the progress, even 30% poverty means a huge headcount in a country of 1.3 billion people. 
• UNDP in its 2017 report estimated India’s poverty at 41% i.e. 528 million.
• There are lazy poor people just as there are lazy rich people and laziness is not the only cause of poverty. There are many factors such as economic instability, cultural discrimination, physical or mental disability, or familial problems. 
• Many people ignore the poor, justify their dislike of the poor, or view their poverty as deserved because they think that those in poverty could come into wealth if they just worked harder. 
• Working harder is an useless advice and an even more ridiculous mindset. In a free market society, people are rarely compensated for hard work. They are compensated for valuable skills and smart working.
• Poor people may be born poor, but they don't have to remain that way. They choose to remain poor. Coming out of poverty is neither easy nor hard. External helping hand is essential to come out of poverty quickly.
• A poor person can't think or plan his old age years. Poverty restricts forward thinking and planning. 
• Work is a pillar of our society. It supplies income that enables families to thrive, fosters a sense of pride and belonging, provides dignity and purpose. For these reasons vast majority of prime-age people work for pay. 
• Few of poor don't work, which robs them of this sense of purpose, affects their families’ prospects for prosperity.
• The presumption is that poor don’t earn enough or work hard enough.
• The reasons poor not working primarily is females with children citing family and home responsibilities, and others citing disability and illness.
• To meaningfully reduce poverty, public policy must focus on improving the health of poor, decrease work disincentives and providing work supports to poor parents such as disability assistance.
• But when a lack of employment leads to poverty, it raises important questions about the role for government. Government can make poverty less painful through income transfers etc, but the question is whether government can encourage those who prefer not to work.
• We can either accept the status quo of leaving millions of people in poverty, or continue funding large government programs that transfer income from working taxpayers to the nonworking poor.
• In India, the labor force participation rates* among prime-age workers have declined over the past three years from 48% to 43% suggesting that India is facing a work problem. China's labor force participation rate is 71%, in USA it is 64% and world average is 63%.
  *The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either employed or unemployed.
• The children growing up in a poor family just need to work hard to escape poverty.  Poverty has been proven to be a leading contributor to a child’s social, emotional, and behavioral problems. For children, poverty is an extremely difficult situation to overcome; and even if the children overcome it, they run the risk of being damaged by it for life. Children living in poverty are at an extremely high-risk for mental and physical disorders, due to lack of nutrition, physical stimulation, and emotional development.
• In USA, the reality is that one in six Americans lives in a household that is “food insecure”.
• The rich are great beneficiaries of poverty. It is very cheap to be rich in India. In a poor nation, the social elite can pass through life without facing any competition. The less democratic a nation, the safer it is for the rich.

Poverty is easy to spot, but hard to define.

Those parts of India which have been longest under British rule are the poorest today ...  Nehru

India is a rich country inhabited by very poor people ...  Manmohan Singh

As opposed to the western ‘trickle down’ capitalism India needs a comprehensive “human development” plan in order to really crush the widespread poverty. The present economy based on GDP growth, India is only promoting inequality that sustains by keeping the poor in poverty. It needs an economy that supports millions of small and medium enterprises that are suitable to employ low skilled poor people. Agriculture must be made sustainable and remunerative. Focus on good governance to root out corruption. Promote women empowerment through education and healthcare to deal with population growth. 

Tsar Bomba

• On 30 October 1961, the Soviet Union detonated the Tsar Bomba nuclear bomb over the Novaya Zemlya islands in Arctic Russia. To this day, this is the largest nuclear weapon detonated.
• The 27-tonne Soviet Tsar Bomba (king of bombs) was the most powerful weapon constructed.
• Officially named AN602 hydrogen bomb, it was originally intended to have a yield of 100 megatons, but this would have posed problems with the radioactive fallout. Later, the Tsar Bomba was reduced to have a yield of only 50 megatons of TNT.
• In an atmospheric test in 1961 it had a yield of 50 megatons - 3,300 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb and 1,400 times as powerful as the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombs combined.
• The bomb served no military purposes. It would be too heavy to carry and there was no plane able to do intercontinental flights with such a load. 

Tsar Bomba Test Location

• The Tsar Bomba was dropped the at 11:32 AM Moscow time, from a height of 10.5 km over Mityushikha Bay in Novaya Zemlya. The bomb detonated at a height of 4 km. The descent from the height it was dropped from until the place of the detonation at 4,000 meters above ground took 188 seconds, just enough time for the pilot to fly to a safe distance. 
• Just one second after the detonation, the fireball was already 4 miles wide, and the light could be seen at distances of over 2,000 kilometers. The mushroom raised to a height of about 64 km, over 7 times the height of Mount Everest.
• After the explosion, the surface of the island was leveled, and the rocks melted. Some reports indicate that windows were broken in northern Finland and Norway too. Complete destruction was observed over 40 km radius and severe destruction over 60 km radius.
• A 100 Mt weapon can level urban areas in a zone 60 km wide, cause heavy damage in a zone 100 km across, cause 3rd degree burns in a region 170 km across and eye damage to 220 km. Such a weapon can only be used as a means of destroying an entire urban region including suburbs and even neighboring cities. With its dense settlement, use of such a weapon in Europe is equivalent to an attack on a major portion of an entire nation and its population. 
• The energy released on the earth's surface by the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami was estimated at 26 megatons of TNT is half of that of Tsar Bomba (50 megatons of TNT).
• The weight of this 50 Mt Tsar Bomba was 27 tonnes and was nearly equal to the TU-95's maximum payload, and two and a half times its normal weapon load.
• The Tsar Bomba was flown to its test site by a specially modified TU-95V release plane, flown by Major Andrei Durnovtsev. Taking off from an airfield in the Kola Peninsula, the release plane was accompanied by a TU-16 observer plane that took air samples and filmed the test. Both aircraft were painted with a special reflective white paint to limit heat damage. Despite this effort, Durnovtsev and his crew were assigned only a 50% chance of surviving the test.
• It was decided that a full 100 Mt detonation would create too great a risk of nuclear fallout, as well as a near certainty that the release plane (and crew) would be destroyed before it could escape the blast radius.
• The Tsar Bomba was the culmination of a series of high-yield thermonuclear weapons designed by the Soviet Union and the United States during the 1950s.
• The creation of the Tsar Bomba was the result of political calculation by the Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev. A de facto moratorium had existed between the U.S., USSR and UK and two years of discussion had been conducted regarding formal limitations on nuclear testing. The Cold War continued at high pitch and the decision to break the moratorium with a "testing spectacular" that coincided with the 22nd Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union was a move cast in the same mold.
• Khrushchev in the meeting of Soviet weapons scientists declared that tests would resume in the fall to 'show the imperialists what we could do', a decision that came as a surprise to the scientists present. Khrushchev specifically cited as the primary motivation a political rather than a technical justification. His view was that the international situation was deteriorating.
• It was also referred to as Nikita Khrushchev's promise to show the United States a "Kuz'kina Mat'"(an idiom roughly translating to "We'll show you!") at the 1960 United Nations General Assembly. 

World's Most Powerful Neclear Bomb - Tsar Bomba

Modi - 3 Years - Poems

A list of poems on three years of Modi government 

- Compiled by a Business World columnist 

Demonetisation

One day PM Modi came up with a plan

The black money guys needed to be damned

As a result of this surprising caper

The big notes became as useless as paper

Opinion is divided whether it worked or not

Though the common man he suffered a lot

So have we got rid of the black money mood

Or just given birth to some pink money dudes

Slogans Shlogans

Start Up Rise Up Go Up Show Up

The PM really wants India to go up

Make in India Shape in India Wait in India

Digital India Fidgetal India Global India

There’s a new slogan every day

A brand new plan on the way

But who knows they may work

They may put us on track

After all it was a slogan – Quit India

That got us our nation back!

Just 12 Thank You!

Long presentations or short

There are advocates for both sides

Some keep it quick and neat

Others take you for a long ride

Some seem to move so fast

Before you know it they’re past

Some go into things long and deep

Often putting people to sleep

But the word is Modi has a law

That everyone abides

The rule is simple

Maximum – 12 slides!

Fashion Modi

Whatever PM Modi does he does with style

He out dresses most politicians by a mile

His clothes with a special class they speak

He could easily walk the ramp in Fashion week

But he dresses not in Tom Ford Hugo Boss

Rohit Bal or you know who

The name of the shop that dresses him

Is guess what –JB – Jade Blue!

What do you want to be?

What did you want to be when you grew up?

Maybe a footballer – to win the world cup

Maybe a cop so you could catch bad boys

Or a chef who knew how to make sui moy

Then again maybe you wanted to be a dancer

Or like ShahRukh Khan – a screen romancer

Have any idea what little Narender wanted to be?

No, he wasn’t anything like you or me

Nor did he want to be a PM you see .  

He ran away from home into the Himalayas 

By his own admission

Because he wanted to be a monk

In the Ramakrishna Mission!

Flying High

Flying here flying there

Flying mostly every where

Look up high into the sky

It’s Mr Modi my oh my

As he lands his smile glows

Making friends wherever he goes

Never has a PM gone so far

In the clouds a shooting star

He has visited 45 nations already

Goodness he must be feeling heady

Since he’s flown 8 times

The distance around the earth

Can you imagine what his

Frequent flyer miles must be worth?

They’ll probably get him

To the moon and back

Then he’ll rest for a while

And again begin to pack!

VUSA

USA USA

Burning bright

In the darkness

Of the night

When you to Modi

A visa denied

Did you imagine

How you’d get fried

He came right back

Like a rock star

With people cheering

From near and far

You were the eagle

Who became a humble crow

Then you got Trumped

Hey man – way to go!

***

Illusions of recovery

• The growth of China and India at 6.9% and 7.3% are unsustainable because of their dependence on debt.
• G7 economies are growing at meager 1.8%.
• US growth is distressing with personal consumption growth of 0.3%.
• Indian banks with over 10% lending in stressed and non-performance assets, the growth rate is unsustainable.
• China's total debt by record 237% of GDP far above emerging-market counterparts raising the risk of financial crisis or prolonged slowdown in growth.
• While Trump promises fiscal stimulus, he does not have a concrete plan to ensure that this does not result in a substantial widening of the fiscal deficit. Then it is unlikely that Trump will win support of fiscal hawks in his own party. The result would be obstacles to implementation.
• Europe is still in the throes of crisis or vulnerable and its leading economy Germany is slowing.
• The dependence on debt makes boom in India and China unsustainable and when downturn occurs in these countries, deleveraging will accelerate the fall and make recovery even more difficult. So making these countries as growth poles is unwarranted.

My View:

Worldwide, middle class and lower classes [Over 95% of population] income remained stagnant during the past 25 years. Only upper middle class and upper classes incomes have shot through the roof. Middle & lower classes remaining stagnant and their consumption remaining low, how can the economy grow? The growth of China and India are superfluous without adjusting the impacts of debt burden, ecological destruction and pollution impact corrections. The growth of advanced countries like USA, Europe and Japan which are between 1-2% are real. During past one year our electricity consumption which hitherto recorded 6-8% compounded annual growth, has recorded negative growth of about 4% which is reflected in no load shedding, backing down of thermal generation & coal imports, piling up of coal stocks everywhere, reluctance of power buyers to sign long term PPA's in preference to spot cheaper purchases etc. How could India register economic growth of over 7% with reduced energy consumption? Every economic parameter is looking south while growth is looking north - strange. Fudging of economic data is not ruled out, which China did during the past 15 years. Indian, a asset rich and cash poor country, indicates asset value bubbling might burst anytime. But for the crude oil prices remaining low for consecutive three years, what would have happened to our economy with adventurists like Modi at helm.

US National debt is now close to $20 trillion

Due to underlying structural problems, US government spending is rising on automatic pilot.

• Eighty percent of the spending increase over the next 10 years will go for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid (the “entitlements”) and interest on the national debt, unless entitlement programs are altered to lengthen their lifespans.
• Right now, U.S. government debt is equal to about 77 percent of the gross national product (GNP), the total annual output of U.S. goods and services.
• The figure could to rise to 89 percent by 2027, and to 145 percent of GNP 30 years from now.
• Interest costs are likely to rise from $270 billion this year to $768 billion in 2027. Absent reform, things would get worse from there. Interest payments would rise from 1.4 percent of the economy (GDP) last year to 5.8 percent in 2046.
• As interest costs rise, an aging population and rising health care costs will further increase pressure on the federal budget, making it increasingly difficult to fund other important national priorities, from defense to medical research. 
• Increased risk of a fiscal crisis could drive interest rates even higher. 
• A steadily rising debt is unsustainable, and that aging of the population, rising health care costs, and increasing interest costs will continue to drive up the debt with no end in sight, assuming no changes in American laws.
• It isn’t exclusively a spending problem but changes need to take place on the revenue side as well.
• Under the current political situation, the debt is a bipartisan problem and requires bipartisan solutions. Neither party wants to go it alone on cutting important programs and boosting tax revenues.
• To avoid such risks to economy and the nation’s future, elected officials must pursue broad fiscal reforms soon. Interest costs are not something that lawmakers and the president can control directly. Avoiding a dangerous upward spiral in those costs in the future will require greater fiscal discipline throughout the federal budget.
• The focus should be on future generations. Younger people have the most at stake in what direction the national debt chart takes.
• These are solvable problems that need to adjust national policies and build sustainable operations.
• Steep tax cuts without spending reductions might stimulate the economy, but they would result in further burgeoning of the national debt.  
• The longer Washington continues to procrastinate on budget reforms, the more taxpayers today and in the future can expect to pay more just to service the growing federal debt. That’s not the path to prosperity.

My View:
Left to themselves, things tend to go from bad to worse. 
It is the responsibility of the Government to reduce expenditure, increase revenues and bring down national debt to manageable levels. Otherwise they will lose credibility, ratings will go down, and end up borrowing at higher interest rates to settle lower interest debts due for repayment and end up in vicious cycle that could result in payment defaults. Unless reformed, US national debt will continue to rise and USA will be permanently trapped in ever increasing national debt, forever.

Donald Trump wins 45th Presidential Election 2016 - What it means for India?

Donald Trump wins 45th Presidential Election in USA

• Trump’s immigration policies, especially as he has spoken of putting up border walls, stopping immigrants from entering the country and ending the use of the H-1B. 
• It is likely that the future policies will start looking inward and slow down international education exchanges and student mobility.
• There may not be any need to worry as higher education in USA is a trillion dollar business for the American economy and India is the second highest in terms of sending students there. “They need us more than we need them.” 
• Interestingly Telugu students in US universities numbering around 30,000 adds to US economy about one billion dollars, every year. All Indian students about 150,000 spends $5 billion in US universities.
• Career advancement is one of the prime motivations for Indian students to study in the US. Trump’s anti-immigrant stance may create stricter visa and immigration policies that may make it even more difficult for students to come to the US and find internship and job opportunities.
• After Brexit, US elections have shown that nationalist viewpoints are gaining momentum. This will prompt visa and immigration policies to limit transition from education to employment opportunities. 
• Trump may remove restrictions on drug imports. This will benefit Indian generic drug companies. India contributes to nearly a third of all drugs sold in the US and this is unlikely to change, given the thrust on affordable health care.

My View:

Although Trump made controversial and inconsistent statements about India and China in regard to students, jobs, H1B etc. with his 'nationalist' and 'anti globalisation' pronouncements, he may not act in haste because what ever he does it not only hurts India but also hurts US equally. Getting approvals from Congress and Senate is not an easy task for him. But many of his followers with 'Jobs for Americans' agenda are emboldened with his pronouncements and sooner or later these might take shape and are detrimental to Indians. See the confidence of Chinese who states that 'let him hurt China at America's expense' and their market indices are stable today while world indices witnessed volatility.