- I shall be failing in my national duty if I did not speak up even now against the mess the finance minister has made of the economy. I am also convinced that what I am going to say reflects the sentiments of a large number of people in the BJP and elsewhere who are not speaking up out of fear.
- Jaitley was, to begin with, a lucky finance minister, luckier than any in the post-liberalisation era. Depressed global crude oil prices placed at his disposal lakhs of crores of rupees. This unprecedented bonanza was waiting to be used imaginatively. The legacy problems like stalled projects and bank NPAs were no doubt there and should have been managed better like the crude oil bonanza. But the oil bonanza has been wasted and the legacy problems have not only been allowed to persist, they have become worse.
- So, what is the picture of the Indian economy today? Private investment has shrunk as never before in two decades, industrial production has all but collapsed, agriculture is in distress, construction industry, a big employer of the work force, is in the doldrums, the rest of the service sector is also in the slow lane, exports have dwindled, sector after sector of the economy is in distress, demonetisation has proved to be an unmitigated economic disaster, a badly conceived and poorly implemented GST has played havoc with businesses and sunk many of them and countless millions have lost their jobs with hardly any new opportunities coming the way of the new entrants to the labour market.
- For quarter after quarter, the growth rate of the economy has been declining until it reached the low of 5.7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal, the lowest in three years. The deceleration had started much earlier. Demonetisation only added fuel to fire. According to the old method of calculation, the growth rate of 5.7% is actually 3.7% or less.
- SBI chairman stated that the telecom sector is the latest entrant to the long list of stressed sectors.
- The reasons for this decline have been allowed to accumulate over time to cause the present crisis. It was not difficult to take counter measures to deal with them that called for devoting time to the task, serious application of mind, understanding of the issues and then working out a game plan to tackle them. It was perhaps too much to expect from a person (FM) who was carrying the heavy burden (Defence, Divestment & Corporate Affairs) of so many extra responsibilities. The results are there for all of us to see.
- The only new thing is the reconstituted Economic Advisory Council of the prime minister. Like the five Pandavas they are expected to win the new Mahabharat war for us.
- Forty leading companies of the country are already facing bankruptcy proceedings. Many more are likely to follow suit. The SME sector is suffering from an unprecedented existential crisis.
- The input tax credit demand under the GST is a whopping Rs 65,000 crore against a collection of Rs 95,000 crore. The government has asked the income tax department to chase those who have made large claims.
- We protested against raid raj when we were in opposition. Today it has become the order of the day. Post demonetisation, the income tax department has been charged with the responsibility of investigating lakhs of cases involving the fate of millions of people. The ED and the CBI also have their plates full. Instilling fear in the minds of the people is the name of the new game.
- Economies are destroyed more easily than they are built. It took almost four years of painstaking and hard work in the late nineties and early 2000 to revive a sagging economy we had inherited in 1998. Nobody has a magic wand to revive the economy overnight. Steps taken now will take their own time to produce results. So, a revival by the time of the next Lok Sabha election appears highly unlikely. A hard landing appears inevitable.
- Bluff and bluster is fine for the hustings, it evaporates in the face of reality.
- The prime minister claims that he has seen poverty from close quarters. His finance minister is working over-time to make sure that all Indians also see it from equally close quarters.
- P Chidambaram said that Congress is happy that Yashwant Sinha has echoed their criticisms of the government. He also tweeted "Yashwant Sinha speaks Truth to Power. Will Power now admit the Truth that economy is sinking?"
Everyone in the country knows our economy is distressed and in deep trouble due to foolish acts of our PM & FM. Some speaks and many (BJP/Modi bhakts) won't. After inflicting irreparable damages, what is the point in appointing 5 member Prime Minister Economic Advisory Council or working out on a meager Rs.50,000 crores stimulus package or announcing Rs.16,000 crore free electricity for all by end of 2018 benefiting 4 crore poor people. Any change in economic direction will take few to several years and nothing much can be expected before 2019 elections. Destroying the institutions like Planning Commission etc have had its effect for this directionless economy. Unless Modi learns to respect experts and take their advice - discarding the habits of consulting quacks and astrologers, India has no future. Alternately, people of India may find Modi's substitute in 2019 and they will.
