Showing posts with label interest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest. Show all posts

Friday, 23 March 2018

Economic insanity

Theoretically, we should be able to provide for everyone's needs and reasonable wants with in a static economy. The only reason why endless growth is necessary in the capitalist system is simply that it is the mechanism by which the system works. Without growth, capitalism deteriorates. But growth imperative causes serious side effects, one of which is the tendency to confuse both money and debt with wealth.
  • If we don't consume or use up real wealth, it perishes on its own. We can't store enough of it to satisfy our lifelong needs. The only way we can make today's wealth fulfill tomorrow's needs is to lend it to others, put them in our debt, and persuade them to pay us back over time, with interest. While debt tends to expand regularly and indefinitely, the wealth it symbolizes cannot.  
  • The ruling passion of individuals in a modern economy is to convert wealth into debt in order to derive permanent future income from it. That is the heart of the capitalism. But the idea that all people can live off the interest of their mutual indebtedness is a vulgar delusion on a grand scale.
  • In reality, only the minority earns significant interest and the majority pays it. But the difference between what the majority owes and what it is able to pay steadily widens. Debt grows exponentially, but new real wealth which common laborers must repeatedly create new real wealth to pay the interest on their borrowings does not. We can never produce enough actual growth in wealth to keep up the exponential growth of our debts. We just roll them over and end up borrowing to pay up interest on them which is nothing more than a giant, legalized Ponzi scheme.
  • The solution to debt crisis is a further dose of growth. The way to grow is to invest, and the way to invest is to borrow. The solution to debt is to increase the debt! How it is believed that new debt will be used productively than the older debt is never explained.
  • The resultant explosion of debt will lead to defensive actions by borrowers include inflation, bankruptcy, confiscatory taxation, fraud, or outright theft. These are socially and economically destructive actions and yet they are also the inevitable fruit of compound interest which we deem normal and acceptable.
  • Growth in the money supply is the “leading edge” fueling productivity and economic expansion through debt. The logical solution to this dilemma is simple. Since exponential growth of real wealth is impossible, we must tie the money supply more closely to wealth to keep it from expanding needlessly. 
  • Exponential growth of money and debt creates unrealistic expectations for similar growth in real wealth which in turn puts immense pressure on short term profits and return on investment. Thus to attract capital, businesses must offer competitive return which often means they search the world over lowest-cost production opportunity. Thus manufacturing gets relocated to countries with lowest labour wages and returns greater.
  • Free trade between nations brings only unrestricted capital. But labour stays put which results not in mutual benefit to both the nations but significantly lower wages to the nation that loses capital.
  • Balance of trade and capital mobility is the way country borrows in real terms is to import more than it exports. In the last few decades, US has run up staggering trade debt means that immense amount of capital has moved out to other countries. No economist would maintain that this large trade imbalance can continue to expand forever. At some point capital will have to start flowing in opposite direction to bring the account back into balance. For this to happen wages and benefits of US workers have to fall to globally competitive levels. The living standards of US workers will drop significantly. Americans must somehow change course to a limited growth economy—and even accept a no-growth paradigm—or the whole system will explode.
  • An economical economy is inherently conservative (not wasteful) in both its production and consumption. In the restorative economy products will require more labour, use less energy and produce less waste. Productivity will go down but employment and profits will go up. This runs contrary to conventional economic logic. Taxation and fees must discourage frivolous, dangerous and dirty products and encourage useful, safe and clean products.
  • Such a system will remove incentives for unlimited growth, discourage or deterr formation of enormous, impersonal and capital driven corporations and encourage small, employee-owned, service oriented and environment-sensitive businesses.

There is a sufficiency in the world for man's need 
but not for man's greed ... Mahatma Gandhi

We have far more oil, coal and gas than we can safely burn without global warming. Coal is the dirtiest of fossil fuels produces least amount of energy and the greatest amount of pollution and threatens clean water to drink, clean air to breathe, and a safe climate. In the name of globalization human consumption & wastage has crossed ecologically sustainable limits and piles of waste has proven disastrous to environment. Pollution haunts every city in the world. Enormous burning of oil & gas adds to the woes. While over population is the fundamental cause, other aspects of over consumption and wastage and elimination of unnecessary and dangerous items is in our hands.


Tuesday, 13 February 2018

What to do with your money right now?

If you are just retired and with plenty of cash, retirement benefits, naturally you will have a dilemma what do with the money safely with maximum returns, liquidity and with minimum income tax liability. While equities and mutual funds seems to get you good returns, never go by television recommendations unless you have in depth knowledge of what you are set up to do.
  • Never lose money. Focus on capital preservation strategies.
  • Remember, risk exists every where. 
  • Spread your money across asset classes; debts, equities, mutual funds, real estate and gold. 
  • Retain certain amount of cash both at home and in bank to manage unforeseen situations.
  • Make sure to have enough life, accident and health insurance cover for you & family.
  • Stay away from hyped markets. That would be the right time to exit.
  • Avoid cryptocurrencies unless you are tech savvy, prepared to gamble and lose.
  • Don't lend money to friends & relatives. You may end up losing money and also relationships.

INSURANCE
  • Insurance is not investment. It is the price you pay for some kind of protection of your family against contingencies of unforeseen events like death / accidental death / hospitalisation shocks. 
  • Do take appropriate life, personal accident and mediclaim policies for self and family.
  • Don't buy equity-linked insurance plans (ULIPs). Your money goes to the agent and the insurer and not into your investments. They are losing propositions.
  • Buy either term policies (these are the cheapest) or buy money-back schemes, which are also cheap but you get your money back. Read the fine print carefully rather than trust an agent's verbal assurances.

80C INVESTMENTS
  • Investments in PPF, NSCs, 5 year Bank deposits, NPS etc. may save you on income tax liabilities, But be aware of 5+ year lock in periods.

EQUITIES
  • The last two years equities have seen terrific returns from the stock market. Is the economy booming? No, but a lot of investors hope that it will start growing faster. 
  • The World Bank and other institutions forecast that growth should accelerate in 2018-19. Many savvy investors have already entered the stock market on that expectation. 
  • As more money has come into the market, it has boosted share prices and created a positive feedback loop where investors have pumped even more money into stocks.
  • Despite forecasts, markets could go in either direction.
  • Unless you are an active watchful person, on daily basis, with propensity to exit as per strategy, risks are high.
  • Index funds have shown persistent growth over years with lower risks. Invest in less risky index funds rather than in risky equities.
  • Equities may not get you periodical returns but in long term they are sure get you impressive gains.
  • Good to be a equities trader rather than and equities investor.
  • Those who have time and inclination to do their own research may invest directly in stocks or via equity mutual funds. The second route is fire-and-forget. Both methods can fetch great returns. Both methods also carry the risk of capital loss.
  • May be it is good to stick to mutual funds and commit to systematic investment plans (SIPs) for three years, or longer. These are likely to fetch excellent returns.
  • The economy may recover. But uncertainty exists.
  • Series of assembly elections and a general election scheduled in the next 15 months. Political uncertainty might cloud short-term returns. What happens if there are apprehensions that the Narendra Modi government will not return?

DEBTS
  • Debt comes in many shapes and sizes. Bank fixed deposits are the default option. You can also buy mutual funds dealing in different types of debt. In addition, you can buy corporate debentures, or subscribe to corporate fixed deposits.
  • Interest rates rise when inflation rises. If inflation rises, the value of money erodes faster. If interest rates rise, any portfolio of previous debt instruments loses value because that same money invested now could be earning more interest.
  • Bank deposits are safest, highly liquid but with low returns. The new FRDI Bill highlights the fact that bank deposits are not guaranteed beyond the limit of Rs 1 lakh. That limit was set in 1993. The limit might get raised to Rs.5 lakhs, prior to the passing of Act. Be informed of this.
  • Avoid PSU banks with huge NPA's. Also avoid private banks with low equity, lower reserves and higher NPAs. Any government would be reluctant to take this step, fearing a political backlash. Since many PSU banks are struggling to cope with bad debts bail-ins are now neither impossible, nor illegal.
  • Mutual funds exploit changes in interest rates. Safety varies. Mutual funds that focus on corporate debt give much higher returns but take larger risks. It's important to understand that you can lose capital in a debt fund. So understand safety, risks and returns before investing.

REAL ESTATE
  • Real estate is entirely local market. The investment is illiquid. Selling may take several months. But returns are impressive. 
  • This segment has huge percentage of 'black money' intertwined with 'white money'. 60:40 is the default ratio. Even 80:20 is not uncommon. 
  • Booms and busts are cyclical and occur side by side too.
  • Sometime legal complications might get your investment locked for several years.
  • Apart from politicians, corrupt bureaucrats and unethical businessmen, you may get entangled with mafia and local goons.
  • So invest only in legally clear properties. Obtain the help of known advocates and chartered accountants. Remember brokers are not your friends.
  • Stay away from hypes.

GOLD
  • Gold and precious metals are the age-old hedge against inflation and uncertainty.
  • But gold yields no interest and capital appreciation is uncertain.
  • Making charges for jewellery add considerably to cost. It's still worth investing as security. 

Neither a borrower nor a lender be ... William Shakespeare