UP Elections - Likely outcome

• Hearing 'Modi, Modi' in and around, Muslims got divided between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP). The estimates are at least 70% Muslims in his voted for the SP and remaining BSP.
• It's enough to make the SP candidate win, because the SP is getting some extra votes beyond M and Y, Muslim and Yadav.
• Regarding Ram mandir to be built in Ayodhya, voters said they have heard this forever.
• Ragrding the decisiveness with which demonetisation was announced overnight, has even more brought about a near consolidation among Hindus. About 65% Baniyas, upset with demonetisation, voted for the SP candidate as a negative vote for the BJP, to send a message to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
• There are women and youth across caste and community lines who never cared to vote but voted this time for Akhilesh Yadav, to defeat BJP.
• This election is difficult to read in the absence of a perceptible wave, or leher, the only way to understand voter behaviour is caste.
• Not just journalists and psephologists, even politicians don't really know what's cooking inside the voting machines.
• There will be many who will get it right, but by chance. Anyone who claims to be able to read this election is bluffing. Or may be it is just a bad reporter playing it safe.

My View:
BJP is lacking 'slogan' and CM face and burdened with demonetisation woes; Modi's war against corruption, black money, fake currency & terrorism financing proved to be a gimmick; his stoic silence about demonetisation benefits; absence of noticeable anti incumbancy vote against Akhilesh Yadav; Ram Mandir not generating any Hindu polarisation but polarising Muslims against itself; and caste grouping unfavourable to BJP; SP-Congress combine likely to add 6-9% votes etc leaves SP-Congress combine in a hopeful position to sail through the election with a simple majority similar to that of Jayalalitha AIADMK in Tamilnadu six moths ago. However voter behaviour and election outcomes are not easily predictable even to the psephologists.

Sasikala must NOT be moved to Chennai jail

• Sasikala should be told that she is not a free citizen on holiday to a resort to exercises choices for comforts and entertainment. She is a convicted criminal stripped off all fundamental rights and undergoing rigorous imprisonment.
• She has ulterior motives to run TN government sitting in jail and must be thwarted.
• Her 'mulaqats' must be restricted to only family members and must not be allowed to engage in any kinds of politics or businesses.

Development

• Development is an emergent property of the economic and social system.
• Development is simply defined as ”good change”. Good change lies on a continuum and development is a process not a definite goal post.
• Development is not the sum of well-being of people in the economy. Development is not enrichment of of upper classes or GDP growth or growth rate or lesser inflation or combination of above but is the enhancement of living standards of lower classes on sustainable basis. 
• Early theories and strategies of development were more focused on achieving economic growth as compared to latter theories and strategies that emphasize social, political, ecological and other dimensions of development.
• Traditional welfare economics had focused on incomes as the main measure of well-being but poverty involved a wider range of deprivations in health, education and living standards which were not captured by income alone. 
• The challenge of development is to improve the quality of life, higher incomes, better education, higher standards of health and nutrition, less poverty, a cleaner environment, more equality of opportunity, greater individual freedom, and a richer culture life.
• The purpose of development is to create an environment in which all people can expand their capabilities and opportunities that can be enlarged for both present and future generations. The essentials to the enlargement are healthy life, education, and decent standard of living.
• Development is more than improvements in people’s well-being. It also describes the capacity of the system to provide the circumstances for that continued well-being. 
• Poor countries suffered from orientation to the past, strong kin relationships, superstition, and fatalism.
• Developed countries managed to move through industrial revolutions, research and exploitation of technology that resulted in an increase in the productive capacities of their societies and creating the conditions of modernity. 
• Developed countries was characterized by innovation, motivation, entrepreneurship, weaker kin relationships and not enslaved by tradition. 
• But economic growth need not necessarily require the displacement or abandonment of the traditional patterns of living and norms.
• Development is a system-wide manifestation of the way that people, firms, technologies and institutions interact with each other within the economic, social and political system. 
• Development is a characteristic of the system and sustained improvements in individual well-being.
• Development is defined as the process of economic and social transformation that is based on complex cultural and environmental factors and their interactions.
• Development must be judged by its impact on people, not only by changes in their income but more generally in terms of their choices, capabilities and freedoms; and we should be concerned about the distribution of these improvements, not just the simple average for a society.
• Development carries a connotation of lasting change. Development is not only the improvements in the well-being of citizens but also the capacity of economic, political and social systems to provide the circumstances for that well-being on a sustainable, long-term basis.

My View:

The present model of reforms & development in India during the past 25 years have resulted in expansion of government's revenues and spending thus offering stability of economy. Per-capita income grew a lot, the pertinent truth is that rich became ultra richer and poor remained poorer. Aberrations are increased corruption, tax evasion, black money, destruction of ecological assets and erosion of value systems. Reckless borrowing had reduced our nation's ratings to near junk status. Unbridled corruption had almost destroyed our banking system. Attempting to develop with export orientation or rapid industrialization without enhancing purchasing power of large number of poor people would be futile. China's economic growth is mainly due to its exploitation of labour for prolonged periods, destruction of ecology and patronizing by western countries which may not suit India with its democratic values and labour rights. Neglecting our agrarian economy will be short sighted approach. Even after 25 years of reforms, agriculture sector still not liberated with MSP dictating the produce pricing. Dilution of labour rights will only enable ruthless capitalists exploiting them. What we need is a development model suitable for country's all round development steadily & surely, especially focusing on lower classes advancement.

Modi bites dust in Tamilnadu

Jayalalitha expired on December 5, 2016 and O.Paneer Selvam became Chief Minister of Tamilnadu for third time. On Sun Feb 5, 2017, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister O.Panneerselvam,  tendered his resignation from the post citing 'personal reasons' and Governor accepted the same. In a separate but near identical letters, Panneerselvam thanked Prime Minister Modi and Governor Ch.Vidyasagar Rao for all the support and cooperation extended by them during his term. After O.Paneer Selavam submitted his resignation as CM of Tamilnadu and Leader of the AIADMK legislature party and he himself had proposed Sasikala as Leader of the AIADMK legislature party. Same day and AIADMK MLAs elected party chief V K Sasikala as their leader, paving the way for her appointment as Chief Minister. 

At this juncture Modi & BJP saw an opportunity to gain foothold in Tamilnadu, with just 2.86% vote share and lost all 232 seats contested in 2016 elections. Governor, Ch.Vidyasagar Rao (a BJP leader) indicated that in the interest of forming a stable government, he would wait for SC judgement, in a DA case against Jayalalitha, Sasikala, Elavarasi & Sudhakaran, and had traveled from Delhi to Mumbai instead of to Chennai. Governor's action of not inviting majority party leader to form government, on some pretext or other, is fundamentally incorrect, unprecedented, irrational and blatantly unconstitutional & illegal as there is no bar on a person holding constitutional positions until convicted and jailed. Presumptive action by Governor is in violation of fundamental principles of democracy is untenable and despicable. At the same time the outgoing CM O.Paneer Selvam changed his mind and revolted against Sasikala charging her with applying pressure to sign resignation and requested Governor to permit him withdraw the resignation which was already accepted and is unmaintainable. On Feb 14, 2016 SC delivered judgement upholding Trial Court's conviction judgement in toto, setting aside HC's acquittal judgement, and Governor's stand seems to be vindicated but still is unconstitutional and amounts to overreaching his powers. 

Modi's game plan got tumbled with Paneer Selvam unable to obtain switch of 20 MLAs from Sasikala's group camping at Mahabalipuram resort to his side that could topple Sasikala's claim, with the support of DMK & Congress, arch rivals of Sasikala, despite seven days of time. Going by the inordinate delay in Governor inviting Sasikala to form Government and tone of statements by Paneer Selvam it is clear to everyone that Modi is behind Paneer Selvam's histrionics. Sasikala before proceeding to Bangalore jail got K.Palani Swamy elected as AIADMK legislature party leader with 124 MLA's signing the support document and Governor, Ch.Vidyasagar Rao has no option but to invite Sasikala's proxy K.Palani Swamy to form government and obtain confidence of house within 15 days.

Thus, Modi is once again is at receiving end in Tamilnadu, after his failed adventures in Bihar, Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh, in the past denting his already spoiled image further badly.

My View:
Modi and BJP's game plan to gain foot hold in every state without winning hearts of the people by sheer manipulations is totally against the principles of democracy and making mockery of governance. With Sasikala in jail, and thin majority of 124 against 117, how long K.Palani Swamy government will survive is a million dollar question. A switch by 10 MLAs will pull down the government for which DMK, BJP and Congress would be anxious to do at the earliest opportunity. If that happens, most likely it will in next few months, midterm poll becomes inevitable and DMK & Stalin would be in a position of advantage.

Sensing the reality, the parties behind Paneerselvam namely BJP, DMK & Congress distanced themselves and are trying to be neutral in the forthcoming floor test of new CM Palaniswamy and allowing Paneerselvam to get isolated.

Jayalalitha & Sasikala - Convicted criminals

On Feb 14, 2017, SC verdict accuses Jayalalithaa as a mastermind who misused her public office.

Late Jayalitha, Sasikala, Elavarasi and Sudhakaran were convicted by SC on Feb 14, 2017, in a 21 year old DA case. Sasikala, the unrelated acquaintance of Jayalalitha for 33 years, was also convicted by SC upholding Trial court sentence and setting aside HC acquittal reveals the deep rooted criminal attitudes of both along with Elavarasi & Sudhakaran.

• Jayalalithaa did not accommodate Sasikala at Poes Garden house out of some philanthropic urge or humanitarian concern but with cold-blooded calculation to keep herself secure from any legal complications, which may arise from their criminal activities
• deep-rooted conspiratorial design to amass vast riches
• hatching criminal conspiracy to launder the ill-gotten wealth
• purchasing huge properties in the names of masked fronts
• ten firms were constituted in a single day. Apart from buying properties, no other business activity was undertaken by them
• Jayalalitha masterminded, misused her public office, masked banking exchanges, acquired vast tracts of land for pittances and conspired with her co-accused at Poes Garden only to later feign ignorance about any crime committed
• this case is a deep-rooted conspiratorial design to amass vast assets without any compunction and hold the same through shell entities to cover up the sinister trail of such illicit acquisitions and deceived and delude the process of law
• Jayalalitha had executed a GPA in favour of Sasikala in respect of Jaya Publications only to maintain a respectable distance from inflow and outflow of money meant for property acquisitions.
• SC lauded Special Judge for his investigative approach and exhaustive research regarding every piece of evidence. The SC observed that the trial court was sensitive, vigilant and judicious in its appraisal of the evidence in this case
• SC held that Karnataka High Court judge did not even bother to appraise the evidence available and stuck to whatever the income tax authorities found in favor of the accused persons
• SC held that death of a public servant does not extinguish the corruption case against the other private accused. Private individuals can be prosecuted on the ground that they had abetted the act of criminal misconduct.
• SC expressed deep concern about the escalating corruption in the society

Jayalalithaa adopted Sasikala's nephew Sudhakaran, announced his wedding in Sep 1995 to the grand daughter of actor Sivaji Ganesan. The Rs.100 crore extravagant wedding consisted of several dining halls; state machinery misused to supply power to the hall, tankers used to supplied lakhs of litres of water and government vehicles employed for transport. This prompted Dr. Subramanyam Swamy initiate the corruption case against Jayalalitha.

It is rumored that Karnataka HC judge who set aside Trial court conviction, later purchased several plots & properties in his relatives names in Bangalore.

How Modi once saved Jayalalitha from a Frankenstein's monster Sasikala in  2011

My View:
Now that it is proven that Jayalalitha is not 'Amma' but a hard core criminal, worse than a terrorist. DMK brigade is no better is another story. Only a fortnight ago there was demand from various Tamil quarters for the award of 'Bharat Ratna' to Jayalalitha. Even without family to inherit, Jayalalitha 'amassed' so much wealth exemplifying human being's underlying greed and becomes difficult to imagine how much politicians are looting the nation. Hopefully, YS Jagan will be consigned to jail in next few months relieving AP of the demonised evils. 21 years to convict her is shamefully too long. The best could be no more than 6-12 months. The need of the hour is to reform our systems to track and book this type of culprits early and send them to jail quickly for rest of their life so that society could lead better quality of life. Bringing all politicians including Prez & PM, officials, businessmen, judiciary and all people in public domain under the purview of strong & independent Lok Pal and strengthening RTI and institutions like CVC, CBI, ACB etc. will be few steps in right direction. Self styled 'anti corruption lone crusader' Modi - whether he will do anything in this direction, even after mid way of the term,  is yet to be seen. I fear he is politician who looks at everything for political gains only.

Capitalism & Morality

• Capitalism is the most productive and efficient economic system.
• Some critics contend that capitalism is not a moral system.
• Morality is impossible unless one is free to choose between alternatives without outside coercion. Since capitalism is based on freedom of choice, it provides the best environment for morality and character development. 
• Business success not only requires but also rewards virtuous behavior by participants in the market.
• All human beings have natural rights endowed by their Creator or inherent in their nature, and have a moral obligation to respect the rights of others. Natural rights impose the obligation not to interfere with others liberty. 
• It is morally illegitimate to use coercion against someone who does not first undertake the use of force. The role of government, is to protect man's natural rights.  
• This freedom involves far more than simple democracy and an individual can pursue his freely chosen norms, actions, and ends without the arbitrary intervention of others. This freedom is necessary for individual morality. 
• There can be no morality without responsibility and no responsibility without self- determination. Self-determination implies rationality, honesty, self-control, productiveness, and perseverance. 
• Maximum self-determination for each individual is possible only when the state is limited to maintaining justice and defending against coercion, thus protecting life, liberty, and property.  
• Capitalism is a system of relationships and cannot be moral or immoral and individuals can only be moral agents. 
• A social system can be moral if it promotes moral behavior by individuals. 
• It is imperative to create a political and economic system that permits self-determination and promotes morality. Capitalism is that system. 
• Capitalism is only a means and requires individual participants to decide on the ends to be pursued. 
• No economic system can make people good. The best that an economic system can do is to allow people to be good. 
• Morality and virtue require that individuals be free to be immoral and of bad character. 
• When an individual has choice and bears responsibility for his actions can he be moral. 
• Capitalism allows the exercise of individual free will but cannot guarantee a moral society. 
• Human development requires more than material wealth. 
• Prosperity enables individuals to cultivate their talents, abilities, and virtues. 
• Capitalism is the best system for wealth creation, permits individuals to spend less time on physical concerns, leaving them more time to engage in higher pursuits. 
• Achievement of prosperity tends to reward moral behavior. 
• Businesses and their owners, managers, and employees have moral obligations. They must respect the natural rights of other individuals, which includes honoring contracts, not engaging in fraud, not using coercion against others, and honoring representations made to the local community. 
• Businessmen should not support government economic interventions, such as price supports, tariffs, and subsidies, even though doing so might result in higher profits. Doing so in nothing but use of coercion.
• Living up to these virtues will aid businessmen in the pursuit of profit. 
• The free market rewards polite, cooperative, tolerant, open, honest, realistic, trustworthy, discerning, creative, fair businessmen. 
• Lying to and cheating other businesses, misleading consumers, and mistreating workers all have serious adverse consequences. 
• In the long run, profitable businesses tend to be operated in accordance with the basic ethical principles most people hold dear.
• Under capitalism business transactions takes place by mutual agreement for perceived mutual gains only by serving the interests of others. 
• Protecting individual choice, capitalism generates enormous wealth, and creates an environment in which virtue can flourish. 
• Capitalism is not only the most productive and efficient economic system. It is also the most moral economic system!  

• Capitalism is an economic system that promotes inequality.
• Uncontrolled, capitalism will corrupt and undermine democracy.
• The vice of capitalism is its unequal sharing of blessings; the virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries. 

My View:

All the above merits of capitalistic system seems to be very nice but in reality people are selfish, greedy and does anything to maximize their profits. In a highly educated society, with abundance of awareness, consciousness of individual rights, free of corruption at least at working levels, stringent law enforcement systems with highly deterrent punishments where citizens will voluntarily comply with laws otherwise they will be compelled to fear laws, capitalism will work to great extent. In poor, less educated & developing societies, free market capitalism is a bane and a distant dream.

Capitalism is fundamentally incompatible with principles of democracy. Capitalism doesn't recognize equal rights of sharing natural resources. The rich consumes too much and poor too little. Capitalism only produces materialistic benefits and makes humans drift away from soil. A small privileged few are rich beyond conscience, and almost all others are doomed to be poor. Capitalism creates materialistic wealth, makes people insensitive and impoverishes spiritually. In the pursuit of riches, economic systems often creates jolts which only hurts the poor. In poor and less educated societies poor gets exploited with scanty food & social security. In educated & affluent societies poor people are provided social and food security only to safeguard the interests of the rich. The only applaudable achievement of capitalism is that extreme poverty & starvation deaths are eliminated. The worst aberration in capitalism is that while risk is spread out on everybody, the fruits are cornered by the rich alone. Morality is incompatible with amassing wealth. Usually amassing wealth is associated with cheating & corruption, looting public or government and destruction of ecological assets. Since the system will not change the rules, we need to change the system. 

Saikala VK's conviction upheld by SC

• Today, the Feb 14, 2017, the Supreme Court verdict upholding Trial Court judgment, setting aside HC acquittal, convicting AIADMK general secretary VK Sasikala, in a 21-year-old disproportionate assets case, effectively ending her chances of ever taking office as Tamil Nadu chief minister, is a vindication for Governor Vidyasagar Rao deciding to delay formation of government and await SC judgement.
• In addition to (1) Late Jayalalitha, (2) VK Sasikala and (3) her sister-in-law Ilavarasi and (4) her nephew Sudhakaran were all found guilty and Sasikala, Ilavarasi & Sudhakaran were sentenced to 4 year rigorous imprisonment.
• Earlier, it was extremely wrong, unconstitutional and patently illegal on the part of BJP and the Modi government to fish in the troubled waters of Tamil Nadu. They have no business to instruct the Governor Vidyasagar Rao to not go to Tamil Nadu and abort the swearing-in of Sasikala scheduled for Feb 8, 2017. Modi government is playing a dirty game as they want to create a problem for the political parties in TN and they want to get some advantage as BJP has no hold in Tamil Nadu. 
• With Jayalalitha dead and now Sasikala convicted for 4 year sentence, AIADMK stands leaderless, directionless and disintegrating into several groups and some merging with DMK and some with Congress are likely.
• Whether Governor Vidyasagar Rao had inside information from BJP or Modi about SC's impending judgement against Sasikala, a week ahead, will never be known.
• Even though dead, Jayalalitha's name will be tarnished in the history books as corrupt and convicted criminal.
• All properties of Jayalalitha, in the absence of no will left by her, will get liquidated and auctioned to realize the fine of Rs.100 crores imposed by Trial Court.
• Unless all AIADMK MLAs join together and elect unanimous leader, Tamilnadu will be thrown into political turmoil with Presidents rule followed by mid term poll which will become advantageous to DMK and its leader Stalin. AIADMK might slip into oblivion soon.
• Sasikala paid bitter price for her misdeeds and cultivating mafia culture and most people hates her except AIADMK MLAs who were granted tickets by her.
• In Sept 1995, V. N. Sudhakaran, the 28-year-old nephew of Jayalalitha's friend-turned-sister-turned-confidante, Sasikala Natarajan, hit a Vegas-style jackpot when he was plucked out of oblivion by the chief minister, declared her foster son, betrothed to actor Sivaji Ganesan's granddaughter, Sathyalakshmi, and married off in the most expensive and controversial wedding in the state's history, the highest approximate worked out is a mind-boggling Rs 100 crore. This provoked Dr. Subramanya Swamy initiating corruption cases against Jayalalitha, Sasikala, Ilavarasi & Sudhakaran.

How Modi once saved Jayalalitha from a Frankenstein's monster Sasikala in  2011

Corruption never pays and even a lower court is independent 

whose verdict was same as the SC. She may file a review petition 

but unlikely to get any relief ... Soli Sorabjee

My View:
It took 21 years for our legal system to send culprits to jail where huge assets with powerful people Jayalalitha and sources remain unexplained. Shame on our judicial system. We need judiciary reforms so that there won't be any pending cases in all courts and any case should take less than 6 months. At worst 12 months. Already people of India are shying away from our legal system and taking help of mafia and gangsters for resolution of litigation they encounter. Left unattended the situation will further deteriorate and collapse.

In civil & judicial services, there must be performance evaluation at all levels and bottom 10% in first year and 5% in subsequent years in every category must be compulsorily retired/retrenched every year without any terminal benefits. The vacancies arising could be filled with fresh recruitment. That is how Ratan Tata has turned around Tata Motors in 1990's plagued with all sorts of ills & corruption.

Justice delayed is not only justice denied 

but rule of the law destroyed ... William Ewart Gladstone