Modi's failures

Modi term 2014-19 is coming to an end shortly. While his government's claimed successes are debatable, his failures are true, glaring, hurting and devastating. Excepting few of his cronies, some ruthless businessmen and corrupt bureaucrats, no one seems to be happy.
 

DEMONETIZATION

The most audacious, hare brained and secretly hatched economic reform which not only destroyed Indian economy but devastated rural and informal economy. GDP slowed by two points, millions of jobs were lost instantly and at least 100 deaths reported standing in bank queues for exchange. Demonetization achieved nothing but nation saddled with unintended consequences. Even after two years unintended consequences are still surfacing incessantly hurting poor people. Demonetization is not an economic reform but a war on people of India.

GST  FAILED 

As the country just a few months away from the Lok Sabha polls, reforms like demonetisation and GST are headed to look like bigger failures than they actually are due to the flow of black money and tax evasion. The unrest in the economy (lack of jobs, credit crunch etc) and the emergence of more black money makes the reforms demonetisation and GST look like a bigger failure. The tax burden has gone up after the implementation of the GST. Besides increased cost, delays in input tax credit to exporters and scarcity of credit pushed people to delay or avoid taxes by dealing more in cash. GST was implemented to widen the tax net, decrease tax evasion and reduce red tape in the tax collection. The ambiguous GST norms and processes have not only failed to bring in the promised efficiency but encouraged the creation of black money, increased tax burden and decreased business productivity. Less productivity is the key reason for lesser job creation. Any tax reform is as good as it is implemented. 

  AADHAAR IS AN ATTEMPT TO DENY RIGHT TO PRIVACY

For months this government argued in the Supreme Court against citizens having a fundamental right to privacy. It argued for surveillance and labelled privacy an ‘elitist concern’. In parallel it struggled to explain why it ordered the mandatory linking of Aadhaar to all possible services from railway tickets to school admissions. The Supreme Court ultimately had to step in and severely curtail the domineering designs of the project.

BANK'S RISING NPA'S

The Indian banking sector has become fragile and marginal with the rising non-performing assets (NPAs) and decreasing credit base. Currently gross NPAs @24% are in excess of  Rs.11,00,000 crores. An ideal banking system is one that enjoys depositors' trust and investors' reliance. To evolve into such a system requires improving conditions around weak corporate governance, poor assets quality, insider abuses, weak capital base, unprofitable operations and overdependence on public funds. A long way to recovery for PSU banks. Although several NPA loans were granted during earlier UPA2 regime these loans turned NPAs during Modi regime and Modi is guilty of not taking timely steps and preferred to go on blaming predecessor government.

GDP DATA FUDGED

Economic statistics are vital to public debate and policy making. Modi government is guilty of suppression of key statistics to revision of GDP numbers and fiddling with budget numbers, the Central government's data management has come under sharp attacks of economists and social scientists in recent times. In 2015, the base year for the GDP calculation was changed from 2004-05 to 2011-12 significantly raising the GDP growth rate from the earlier estimates. Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices...showing growth of 5.1% during 2012-13, and 6.9% during 2013-14 - the corresponding figure in the old 2004-05 series was 4.7% and 4.5% - and took India's growth rate higher than China. Strangely, no back series data was released by the CSO then as it led to an upward revision in growth for the UPA years. Then, on Jan 31, 2019 the CSO released fresh data, revising GDP growth upward: From 7.1% to 8.2% in 2016-17 ( the year of demonetisation) - the highest in the decade! and from 6.7% to 7.2% for 2017-18 (the year of GST and post-demonetisation). Many eye brows have been raised as these revised estimates were surprising and did not square with related macro-aggregates.

BETRAYAL OF FARMERS

Farmer suicides rose sharply during the Modi government’s tenure. Modi government imported wheat and pulses without thought – leading to the prices of domestic produce crashing. Farmers have resorted to at least three large scale agitations thrice this year. Not a single representative from the BJP Government deigned to meet the agitating farmers near Parliament in New Delhi.

JOBS & UNEMPLOYMENT

For the last one year, India has seen "the dreadful phenomenon" of falling labour participation rates and rising unemployment rates. At 7.2%, India's unemployment rate in Feb'2019 is worst in 29 months. The continued y-o-y fall in the labour participation rate in 2018 and 2019 indicates a deeper or a more sustained problem ailing India's labour markets. The total number of employed persons in February 2019 is estimated at 400 million against 406 million in the year-ago period and 407.5 million employed in February 2017. All this is pretty bad news for the Modi government ahead of the general elections 2019.

RAFAEL DEAL QUESTIONED

Modi and his cohorts changed the terms of a deal to acquire fewer jets for three times the price without following the stipulated procurement procedure. When cornered with questions, the government chose to attack the opposition and cite rules of secrecy which were contradicted by the French president. The Rafale controversy attracts questions because of the selection of a private party (read Anil Ambani), without any qualifications and experience except for an obvious proximity to the Modi, as an offset partner, displacing experienced HAL, a PSU.

MEDIA ENSLAVED

There has been an enslavement of certain sections of the media which simply choke on any criticism no matter how innocuous of the prime minister and the BJP president. If a channel is less than pliant, it is blacked out, its premises raided, or the offending journalists removed outright.

PARLIAMENT IGNORED

The parliament is an inconvenience to Modi government which prefers to rule by fiat and ordinances. PM Modi rarely attends parliament, and when he does he gives electoral speeches than to answer questions raised on the floor of the House.

LOKPAL APPOINTMENT FORGOTTEN

The promised Lokpal is deliberately forgotten by Modi, that an irate Supreme Court has to direct action. Lokpal was appointed after 4 years and 10 months of assuming office and few days before election schedule 2019 was announced.

CBI'S CREDIBILITY CRISIS

A high-powered committee headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shunted out CBI director Alok Verma, three weeks before his retirement. Congress President Rahul Gandhi attacked the government ahead of the crucial meeting and said Modi was in a "tearing hurry" to "sack" Verma because of the Rafale deal.

COW VIGILANTISM & HATE CULTIVATION

No incidents of hate crime were reported in 2010 and 2011, but over the eight years since 2012, 29 persons have been killed in cow-related hate violence, 25 of whom were Muslims. Only one-third of the cases –  the police filed cases against the victims under cow-protection laws. Attacks based on race, religion, caste or ethnicity in India often occur when the attackers believe that they have political cover and will not be prosecuted and punished. It is crucial for the state to respond immediately and establish the rule of law, otherwise people lose faith in the justice system, and there is risk of a cycle of revenge and violence. Political patronage of criminals destroys institutions, causes a breakdown in human rights protections. Modi has more than once condemned the thuggish violence of the cow terrorists, not swiftly enough. His rebukes have been too gentle for his partisans are just ignoring him. Unless Modi shows he means business, the support of BJP leaders will only continue to embolden the Muslim-hating mobs.

KASHMIR MISHANDLED

Kashmir remains the biggest Modi’s failures. Kashmir valley's population is over 9 million of which 96% are Muslims. 60% of the Valley’s population is below the age of 30 with shrinking job avenues. Kashmir remains the most militarized zone in the world.Half of Indian army ~7 lakhs personnel are there in Jammu and Kashmir. There were only 150 militants in the state last year. Do we need 7 lakh soldiers to fight 150 militants? The BJP is interested in the continuation of the communal polarization situation in Kashmir to aid its larger political agenda. No political accountability, no responsibility for the mess it has created. The Srinagar by poll turnout was just 7.13% in contrast to 26% in 2014 general elections. The deteriorating conditions in the Kashmir valley is reflected by the killings of civilians by armed forces. Over 300 civilians have died in the last three years. Stone pelting on army personnel by girl students and housewives indicates breakdown of familial bonds. The Modi government is simply not interested in starting a political dialogue it promised four years ago.

EROSION OF INDIA'S INFLUENCE IN ASIA

India's relations with Nepal had deteriorated over the preceding years despite India having been the prime responder in the reconstruction of Nepal following the catastrophic earthquake of 2015. On the other hand, China’s influence in Nepal has been steadily rising with its recent initiatives to expand influence in South Asia. Chinese fuel supplies to Nepal helped alleviate the fuel shortage, accompanied by the commencement of infrastructure projects to help in the post-earthquake reconstruction of the country. Nepal runs the risk of being overwhelmed by Chinese investments and falling into a debt trap after allowing massive Chinese investments. Prevailing open border between India and Nepal offers potential for the smuggling-in of cheap Chinese consumer goods as they flood Nepal. India has to recalibrate relations with Nepal in the backdrop of massive Chinese FDI in Nepal, which constitutes over 60% of the total investment in Nepal in 2017-18. With a little over 30%, India lags a distant second and has to emerge with fresh strategies to counter expanding Chinese influence in Nepal.

HIGH-VALUE BANK DEFAULTERS FLED THE COUNTRY

Banks are custodians of public money. Some 31 Indians have fled abroad to avoid prosecution and these include Vijay Mallya, Lalit Modi. Nirav Modi, Mehul Choksi, Jatin Mehta etc. India is struggling to extradite these businessmen who have fled the country after defaulting on billions of dollars of bank loans. The government has compiled a list of 91 people it is considering barring from leaving India because of their involvement with companies that have defaulted. A willful defaulter is one who has defaulted in meeting its repayment obligations to the lender even when it has the capacity to pay. Some 400 Indian companies have been classified as willful defaulters. It is logical that someone accused of an offence is not allowed to leave the country because extradition requires proof of criminal offence and it is difficult to establish this beyond doubt.

Just now exit polls were announced which unanimously predicted NDA getting 300+ and UPA ~130  etc. I see many abnormalities and suspect exit polls were tweaked favoring  NDA. I guess NDA and UPA will get ~200 each (+/- 25) and regional parties get 150 seats. UPA with the support of regional parties will form government. If Congress gets ~150 then Rahul Gandhi will become PM and otherwise a consensus candidate from South or East will become PM.