With majority eluding in 2019, BJP has to accommodate allies

As things stand at the moment, it is unlikely for BJP to get simple majority in 2019 elections but will retain the position of the single largest party. Assuming that large parts of the opposition remain together, BJP may hold on to at best 210 seats in the Lok Sabha. This would bring the BJP to the size of the Congress in the last UPA government. 

• Regional parties that are not currently in it but have been at one time, like some of the Tamilian parties, may join in. Which were once there but have become opponents (TDP, BJD etc.) could join again or remain neutral. Therefore, even if the BJP loses 70 or 80 seats, it should still be possible for the party to return to power.
• This will be an entirely new situation for Modi, who became the chief minister of Gujarat without having fought a single election. He has always led a majority government. A few months into his term, Gujarat burst into flames.
• Modi's only experience is as a CM in heading government where he controlled the full majority and often a two-thirds one. Old leaders were sidelined. New loyal faces were brought in. Modi picked and chose his Cabinet and dominated by holding all the key portfolios.
• Amit Shah, the second most powerful leader in the country today, was not given cabinet rank and was kept as MoS in the decade he served under Modi in Gujarat.
• Modi’s brilliant campaign of 2014 then produced a similar situation in Delhi and he was the undisputed leader of a party that had previously had some divisions but was always more disciplined than the Congress. Old leaders like LK Advani and MM Joshi were shunted out. Others like Sushma Swaraj had to submit. The party is seen as a big happy family today but it is not. BJP also has many who are capable of doing more but are being deliberately held back. With BJP having less than 210 seats, these individuals & regional leaders will assert themselves in a way that they are not doing now. 

It will be fascinating to see how Modi, for the first time in his political life without a majority, will manage the ambitions and the conflicts. At 210 seats, the position of the PM will be like that of Manmohan Singh. He was wrongly seen as weak, rather than the position of a man whose allies have a veto on his actions. There is no defence against such allies except for martyrdom. One can sacrifice the government, or one’s position, and move on. But if one wants to lead in a government where the majority is missing, then allies will have to be accommodated. This is something which Modi never did. Running a minority government requires flexibility and the ability to swallow humiliation. Allies will make sure that their hold is made public and this will mean getting the government to bend a few times. It will be fascinating to see how Modi manages this, particularly for those who have observed the meteoric trajectory of his career. Minority governments and khichdi coalitions has not hampered India’s economic and social growth. Those who fear a minority government or a hamstrung BJP should not despair. Coalitions are not evil. What will be instructive will be to see how Modi manages one.

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Modi & Amit Shah duo would like to sit in opposition and allow a 'kichdi' coalition take charge and collapse with its own contradictions in an year or two and win back in mid term polls emulating fall of Janata Party and return of Indira Gandhi in 1980. Although not easier, RSS have given clear direction that it would like Modi to pave way to more acceptable person like Nitin Gadkari to lead BJP lead NDA government. Easing out Modi & Shah is a big challenge for RSS and softliners. 

రాజకీయ రంగస్థలం!

రాజకీయమంటేనే అరాచకీయం. ఆ అరాచకీయాన్ని అద్భుతమైన ఆదర్శాల పేరు చెప్పి మరింత అపసవ్యంగా ఆవిష్కరించి, వికారంగా తీర్చిదిద్దేవాడు నాయకుడు. ఎన్నికల గాడిపొయ్యి మీద డేకీసాలో రాజకీయాన్ని పోసి, సీట్లతో మంటపెట్టి, ఓట్లతో కలబెట్టి, హామీల పోపు పెట్టి, కులమనే వెల్లుల్లిని ఫుల్లుగా దట్టించి, మతమనే మసాలాను ఘాటుగా పట్టించి, బాగా ఉడకనిచ్చి వేడివేడిగా వడ్డిస్తే ఉంటుంది చూశారూ ఆ మజా.. అధికారం నషాళానికి అర అంగుళం దూరంలో ఆగి కనిపిస్తుంది. దాంతోపాటు పక్కన నంజుకోవడానికి పచ్చ నోట్లు, పుంజుకోవడానికి పచ్చటి సీసాలు ఉంటే సొర్గం మన ముందట తడబడుతూ నిలబడ్డట్టే! ఐదేళ్లకోసారి పండక్కి మాత్రమే దొరికే ఈ స్పెషల్‌డిష్‌ తినేవాడికి ఇంపు. చూసేవాడికి కంపు!

రాజకీయాన్ని వండడం అంత తేలికేం కాదు. ఏమీ తెలియనట్టే కుట్రలు పన్నగలిగిన అమాయకత్వం... పైకి తెచ్చిన వాడినే వెన్నుపోటు పొడవగల అకుంఠిత విధేయత... జాతికి జరిగే నష్టాన్ని కూడా పట్టించుకోనంత నిస్వార్థపరత... దేశం నాశనమైపోయినా లెక్కచేయనంత దేశభక్తి... అనునిత్యం అతికినట్టు అబద్ధాలు చెప్పగలిగే నిజాయతీ... నిన్న సాయంవేళ ఇచ్చిన మాటను ఇవాళ పొద్దున్నే మరచిపోగలిగేంత జ్ఞాపకశక్తి... సిగ్గులేకుండా ఆత్మస్తుతి పరనింద చేయగల నిష్పాక్షికత... ధనికుల కోసం మాత్రమే ఆలోచించేంత దారిద్య్ర నిబద్ధత... బేవార్సు విధానాలకు భేషుగ్గా భాష్యం చెప్పగల సైద్ధాంతిక చతురత.. కుర్చీ కోసం ఇటు నుంచి ఎటైనా దుంకగల అ–చంచలత... ఇవన్నీ ఉన్నవాడే రాజకీయాన్ని రుచిగా వండి వార్చగలడు!!

కుల రహిత సమాజం కోసం కులతత్వాన్ని పెంచి పోషించగలిగే మహా నిబద్ధత... మతాతీత దేశం కోసం మారణహోమాన్ని రెచ్చగొట్టగలిగే లౌకికత ఉండడం అదనపు అర్హత. భూమి తనచుట్టూ తాను భ్రమణం చేస్తూ, సూర్యుడి చుట్టూ పరిభ్రమణం చేస్తుందట. కానీ మన నాయకుల ఫలితమా అని భారతదేశం కులం చుట్టూ భ్రమిస్తూ, మతం చుట్టూ పరిభ్రమిస్తోంది. కాలం గడిచేకొద్దీ కులం– మతం కాలగతిలో కలసిపోవడానికి బదులు కల్లోలమే సృష్టిస్తున్నాయి.

ఓట్ల కోసం, సీట్లకోసం నేతలు ఇప్పటిదాకా ప్రజలను కులాలు, మతాలు వారీగా మాత్రమే చీల్చారు. కులాలను, మతాలను కూడా చీల్చేయడం ఇప్పుడు మొదలైంది.

హిందువుల్ని కులాలుగా విడగొట్టి, ముస్లింలను మతంగా కొల్లగొట్టి, లౌక్యంగా గెలవడం నేర్చుకున్నాయి లౌకికవాద పార్టీలు. హిందువుల్ని మతంతో ఏకం చేసి, ముస్లిముల్లో సున్నీ, షియా, తలాఖ్‌ల తకరారు పెట్టి ‘అమిత’ చాతుర్యం చూపారు బీజేపీ వారు. దీనికి దీటుగా, పోటీగా ఇప్పుడు ఏకంగా హిందూ మతాన్నే ముక్కచెక్కలు చేయడానికి లెక్కలేశారు కాంగ్రెస్‌వారు.

ఓట్లొస్తే చాలు, సీట్లొస్తే చాలు, కుర్చీలో దర్జాగా కొలువుదీరితే చాలు! కాకి వాలిన కారులో కూర్చోవడమే నచ్చని పరమ హేతువాది... మూఢ నమ్మకాలకు వ్యతిరేకంగా చట్టం చేసి కూడా, మంత్రించిన నిమ్మకాయ చేతిలో ఉంటే తప్ప ప్రచారం చేయలేని నిష్ఠా గరిష్ఠుడు... దేవుడిని కొలిచే మఠాధిపతులను తప్ప దేవుళ్లను నమ్మని నాస్తిక శిఖామణి ఇప్పుడు.. మోడీని పడగొట్టేందుకు తొడగొడుతున్న దేశ రాజకీయ యోధులకు ఆదర్శప్రాయుడు! కర్ణాటకను గేమ్‌ ఛేంజర్‌గా భావిస్తూ, సిద్దూ [సిధ్ధరామయ్య] ప్రయోగాన్ని, ఫలితాన్ని చూసి అదే మార్గంలో పయనించాలని దేశంలోని నేతలంతా తహతహలాడుతున్నారు! భశుం!!

చివరాఖరు: గోరఖ్‌పూర్‌ ఎన్నికల్లో బీజేపీ ఓడిపోయిన తర్వాత, పార్లమెంటు సెంట్రల్‌హాల్లో ప్రతిపక్ష ఎంపీలంతా, మోదీ నిరాదరణకు గురైన బీజేపీ అగ్రనేత మురళీమనోహర్‌ జోషికి శుభాకాంక్షలు చెప్పడం మొదలుపెట్టారట. ఆయన కూడా మందహాసంతో వాటిని స్వీకరించారట. ఇదంతా చూస్తున్న మంత్రి ధర్మేంద్ర ప్రధాన్‌... జోషి వద్దకు వచ్చి ‘మీరిలా చేయడం ఏమీ బాగాలేదు. తప్పుడు సంకేతాలు వెళతాయి’ అన్నారట. ‘నేను ఎప్పుడేం చేయాలో చెప్పేంత వాడివయ్యావా నువ్వు’ అని గద్దించారట జోషి. మోదీ మీద విపక్షీయులకే కాదు; స్వపక్షీయులకూ ఎంత కోపం ఉందో ఇంతకుమించి చెప్పాలా?

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A comfortable old age is the reward of a well-spent youth

The excesses of our youth, are drafts upon our old age, 

payable with interest, about thirty years after date ... CC Colton

The Supreme Court's directive to complete the conspiracy trial against BJP leaders accused of conspiracy to demolish the Babri Masjid could mean the deserved denouement of Lal Krishna Advani's career. Advani's career was built on Babri Masjid, on the saugandh that a Ram Mandir would be built in its place and nowhere else. If Advani gets indicted for the demolition of the structure in Ayodhya, life would have come full circle for him.

There shouldn't be an iota of doubt that Advani, now 89 years, was the architect of the movement that led to the demolition of the disputed mosque on Dec 6, 1992. His rath yatras led to mass hysteria that mobilised thousands of youth for the sectarian movement. It is for the courts to decide if Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Kalyan Singh and other BJP leaders accused in the case actually conspired to get the structure razed or not. But, none of them can escape the moral and political responsibility of their failure to control the monster they unleashed on India and in Ayodhya.

Advani has always denied that he was aware of plans to forcibly demolish the structure. He has claimed that the sight of lumpen kar sevaks pulling the structure brought tears to his eyes. Other versions suggest that they are in fact tears of joy when their conspiracy came to fruition on Dec 6, 1992. Advani played up the kamandal card ruthlessly throughout the tumultuous period between 1989 and 1992. He was single-handedly responsible for taking the BJP from 2 seats in 1984 to 117 in 1991 and his ambition to become the prime minister is clear.

For the BJP, the SC order could be a blessing in disguise. To the party it could mean an opportunity to keep the Hindutva pot boiling and serving the Ram Mandir issue hot in the 2019 elections. The trial is bound to get a lot of attention and in the end turn out a PR heist for the Hindutva brigade. In the dusk of his life, he could become the rath on which his party could ride to the next electoral victory. Just that, like in the 90s, he might not be the beneficiary of his final yatra, either to jail (if he is indicted) or to freedom (if he is found not guilty). Wouldn't that be adequate punishment for Advani's karma that led to the bloodshed every time he roared: Saugandh Ram ki khaate hain, mandir wahin banayenge?

A comfortable old age is the reward of a well-spent youth ... Maurice Chevalier

My View:
The fact that BJP etc have given written assurances that they would not demolish Babri Masjid for obtaining permission to conclude 'Rath Yatra' in Ayodhya and failed is one aspect. The other aspect is that gigantic structure demolition and removing debris using construction equipment would have taken few days where as 'Kar Sevaks' using hand tools only have demolished the structure, cleared debris and installed make shift 'Ram Mandir' in flat 6 hours, without any causalities, indicates the well designed, equipped and rehearsaled conspiracy, with secrecy well maintained, speaks volumes about the criminality of the issue for which LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Kalyan Singh and other BJP leaders can't be absolved of their crime and must be punished. However after 25 years, mobilising witnesses for their trial is no easy task for CBI and with Modi & BJP in power at Centre and also in UP, it is quite possible that the trial will end up as a farce. However Advani will go down in history as destroyer of Babri Masjid and pushing secularism into peril and paving way for Hindutva, much to the discomfort of minorities.

Post independence in India, Hindu population is growing arithmetically where as Muslim population is growing geometrically and by 2051/61 Muslim population will surpass Hindu population in India. Then what?

Babri case: SC restores conspiracy charges against Advani etc

Babri Masjid being demolished by Kar Sevaks on Dec 6, 1992

Apr 19, 2017:  LK Advani and other top leaders of the BJP including Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharti will be tried for criminal conspiracy in the demolition of the 16th­ century Babri Masjid, the Supreme Court ruled today, agreeing with a request from the Central Bureau of Investigation or CBI in its case over the razing of the disputed mosque on December 6, 1992. The incident had sparked deadly riots across India that killed around 2,000 people. "We have allowed the CBI appeal against the Allahabad High Court judgement with certain directions," a bench comprising Justices PC Ghose and RF Nariman said.

Here are the top 10 points from the judgement in the Babri Masjid demolition case:

1. CBI's appeal in Babri mosque demolition case allowed, criminal conspiracy charge against LK Advani and other BJP leaders restored.
2. Two separate cases (in Lucknow and Raebareli) against LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti and unknown 'kar sevaks' in will be brought together in one trial.
3. The trial court in Lucknow must complete the hearing in two years and deliver a verdict.
4. Kalyan Singh (who was the chief minister of UP in 1992) enjoys constitutional immunity as Rajasthan Governor and can be tried only after he leaves office.
5. Lucknow court should conduct trial in these cases on a day­to­day basis.
6. No party shall be granted adjournments without the sessions judge being satisfied of the reasons for it.
7. CBI will have to ensure that at least one prosecution witness appears in trial court for recording of testimony.
8. Trial judge hearing the Babri mosque case shall not be transferred till the judgement is delivered.
9. Lucknow trial court to commence proceedings in four weeks and there will be no 'de novo' (fresh) trial.
10. Order should be followed in letter and spirit and parties involved have the liberty to approach the top court if its directions are not followed.

Here is the timeline to the dispute

Justice delayed is justice denied ... William E. Gladstone

Justice delayed will not only be justice denied, 

it will be the Rule of law destroyed ... Soli Sorabjee

My View:

There is no question that Ram Janmabhoomi is one of the highest sentiment for 84% Hindus in India, without exception. Muslims should have voluntarily given away the never used Masjid for Hindus for building Ram Temple, as gesture of good will. In return they could have extracted certain concessions, but both groups never came to negotiating table. Courts could not give its judgement because that piece of land of Babri Masjid is in possession of Babri Masjid Trust and at the same time Hindus sentimental right can't be undermined but can't be given away to Hindus unless Muslims agree to it. The dispute is dated back to 1853/1859. In 1992 Advani leading thousands of BJP+ Kar Sevaks, purely for political gains is only to counter VP Singh's Mandal card, resulting in demolition of Babri Masjid is patently illegal, undemocratic and unconstitutional and ruptures secular fabric of the nation. All culprits who ever have conspired and/or participated in demolition must be booked and punished as per laws of the land. Topping the list are LK Advani, MM Joshi, Uma Bharathi, Kalyan Singh and many more. At least after 25 years, SC ordered these culprits stand trial with 2 years deadline. Unless rule of the law is respected, we stand to lose democratic & secular character of our constitution.

However, SC has dealt a deadly blow to BJP & its associates stunning the master manipulator Modi affirming judicial independence and upholding rule of law. Any shame left, Uma Bharti and Kalyan Singh must resign their Minister & Governor positions and face criminal charges in their individual capacity. Ironically, Modi (with his CBI) has to prosecute his own gurus & compatriots of conspiracy & criminal charges. Landed in unenviable spot, Modi, who lectures on every issue, will maintain stoic silence on this matter.