Four years: Modi's missed, wasted & abused opportunities

The 2014 mandate was fueled by hapless frustration with the Congress-led UPA regime and, more pertinently, the Gujarat development model as an alternative. The campaign, the slogans, the rhetoric were populated with words and sentiments that the people of India wanted to hear. The 50-plus page BJP election manifesto was as crisp as a promissory note, listing imperatives and solutions. After four years of Modi's histrionics, with one year to go for 2019 general elections, we Indians are again at cross roads filled with dilemma and uncertainty.

1. Fighting Corruption ⬆
2. Checking Price Rise ⬆
3. Ease of doing business ⬆
4. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) for resolving NPA's ⬆
5. Rural electrification ⬆
6. Pace of road building ⬆
7. Jan Dhan Yojana ⬆
8. Mudra Yojana ⬆ 
9. Fiscal reforms ⬌
10. Bullet Trains ⬌
11. Swachch Bharat ⬌
12. Railways modernization ⬌
13. FDI In Multi-brand Retail ⬌
14. Triple Talaq ⬌
15. Surgical strikes ⬌
16. AIMS, IIT and IIM in every state ⬌
17. International diplomacy & PM's frequent foreign travel ⬌
18. Medical insurance cover of Rs 5 lakh to 500 million low-income Indians ⬌
19. Recapitalizing PS Banks ⬌
20. Defense preparedness ⬇
21. One crore jobs creation ⬇
22. Dipped education & healthcare spending ⬇
23. GDP growth rate ⬇
24. Demonetisation ⬇
25. GST ⬇
26. No Lokpal yet ⬇
27. Black money from Swiss banks. ⬇
28. Cashless society ⬇
29. Make in India ⬇
30. Skill development program  ⬇
31. Doubling farmers income ⬇
32. Empowering Women ⬇
33. Kashmiri Pandits ⬇
34. Abrogating Article 370 ⬇
35. Ram mandir at Ayodhya ⬇
36. Zero Tolerance on Terrorism ⬇
37. Persecution of Dalits, Muslims & Christians all over India ⬇
38. NPA's of PS Banks ⬇
39. Privatisation of Air India and other PSUs ⬇
40. Universal medical care ⬇
41. Administrative and civil service reforms ⬇
42. Ganga clean up ⬇
43. Smart cities ⬇
44. Aadhaar Card ⬇
45. Implementing uniform civil code ⬇
46. Corruption in deals like Rafale, Vedanta, Adani etc ⬇
47. Tax terrorism ⬇
48. Implementation of AP Reorganization Act 2014 ⬇
49. Development Packages announced for J&K, Bihar etc ⬇
50. Desertion of NDA by allies  ⬇
51. Federal Polity ⬇
52. Institutional autonomy ⬇

Overall, the Modi government has done seemingly well in patches, due to low oil prices between 2014-2017, but failed in significant areas. Its electoral machinery is formidable. The irony is that Modi instead of imposing himself on the bureaucracy, the bureaucracy has imposed itself on Modi, imprinting its views, values, and methods. It is the taming of Modi by the babus. But after four years, BJP faces anti-incumbency in Hindi heartland states. If opposition parties puts up united face, the Modi government would be voted out in 2019. Combined efforts of Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee and Sitaram Yechuri only can help the Modi - BJP escape defeat in 2019 General Elections.

By any reckoning, India is worse than it was in 2014 when Modi ascended to power. Modi squandered away the benefit of low oil price regime for 3 years, which was  God's gift to Modi & India to the tune Rs.10,00,000 crores, with his senseless adventures, shortsighted reforms with immature design & implementation. None of the constitutional office bearers today are worthy fellows including Modi himself. Modi doesn't deserve any more chances. Who ever succeeds him will be successful simply because of inheriting worst performance India ever had. Modi will be remembered as one of the worst prime ministers, even below the infamous VP Singh.

77% of workforce will be In vulnerable employment By 2019

• In the recent past a report indicates the falling value of wage labour against the accumulation of wealth as dividends and share capital. Another report hints towards the dismal conditions in which Indian workers are forced to work and eke a living.
• An ILO report estimates that over 77% of the active workforce (not counting the unemployed) will be in vulnerable employment by 2019. ‘Vulnerable employment’ is defined as as self-employed without paid employees and contributing family workers. In India ‘vulnerable employment’ encompasses contractual workers in the organised sector and workers in the unorganised sector. 
• Grave conditions exist in which the workers, producing high value branded garments, are forced to work in Bangalore. It also reports that women are lured by false promises of wages and held under pressure to work for low wages.
• A major labour reform is being pushed by the corporate sector to formalise the contract labour system that enables ‘fixed-term employment’ by industries. The new labour rules would allow the companies to shift the risk of the business cycle on the workers. This allows companies with less than 300 workers to close down or retrench workers without prior notice and approval. Presently in most states, the limit is set at below 100 workers.
• The complex tax regime with multiple exemptions leads to a skewed burden of taxes. It identifies that apart from allowing larger companies to pay a much lower rate of tax than smaller companies, exemptions for accelerated depreciation incentivises capital-intensive production rather than the use of labour. The effective tax rate for companies with turnover less than Rs. 1 crore is above 30% while companies that make over Rs. 500 crores pay less than 26% in taxes.
• The UK - India Business Council (UKIBC) and the Confederation of British Industry have together written to the Indian government seeking a lowering of corporate taxes and implementing reforms to further dilute labour laws. The lobby groups have argued that such measures would improve the ease of doing business in India and also help increase British investments in India.
• The workers had been working in abysmal conditions for meagre wages ranging from Rs. 6000/- to Rs. 10000/-. The reasons for accidental deaths go beyond violations of norms but is more systemic. Women suffer disproportionately as they are exposed to informal work. A labour activist points out that labour laws are brazenly violated.
• Trade unions have staged demonstrations and road rokko in various cities of Tamil Nadu voicing their dissent against the central and state government’s economic policies. The demands included a raise in minimum wage to a living wage, end to contractualisation and ‘anti-labour’ policies, the protests focussed on price rise, hike in transport fares in Tamil Nadu and the dismantling of the Public Distribution System which has been the hallmark of the welfare system in Tamil Nadu.
• Belying the opinion that India is creating far fewer jobs (or even bleeding jobs), a new report, published by a professor of economics at IIM Bangalore and Chief Economic Advisor of SBI, has concluded that we are headed towards creating 7 million (70 lakh) jobs by the end of the financial year 2017-18. This has led to a furious debate over the issue of job creation in India in the last few years.
• The biases that could have crept into the data is that the threshold of 20 employees for EPFO registration might lead to a false growth when a company that has 19 workers increases its payroll by 1. While the net increase is just 1, EPFO will record a growth of 20. It also does not delete accounts immediately when jobs are lost. An amnesty scheme announced two years back has brought in many workers into the ambit. This cannot be claimed as new employment. Thus, EPFO is not the best source to estimate net growth in jobs. 
• It is argued that at a time when the economy has been jolted by shocks such as Demonetisation and GST implementation that have adversely affected the unorganised sector, it cannot be ‘wished away’ by cherry-picking data. 

Read the source article

The attitude of our central & state governments to dole what ever concessions MNCs ask to set up their manufacturing units in the name of generating some jobs and indirect economic benefits is fundamentally defective. These industries apart from tax concessions will have to be given land at throw away prices ruining the poor farmers but also precious resources like water & electricity are to be diverted for their use. The pollution and climatic impact and industrial waste dumped in our land fills is incalculable. The cultural impact is another thing. If these negatives are loaded to the benefits, the net benefit would be negative. Labor reforms exposing workers to be exploited by these industries is nothing but height of insanity. Unlike IT employees these workers whenever they are retrenched getting alternate jobs wouldn't be easy and the agony they and their families undergo in the absence of robust social security is unimaginable. Therefore we should do what ever is good for our society especially poorer classes. No point in solving one problem and creating a much bigger problem.

RBI warns against farm loan waivers

• Farmer loans amount around Rs. 3 lakh crores and farmer suicides during past two decades exceeded 3.18 lakhs. Needless to say agriculture is in distress last two decades. Mechanization, modernization, land reforms for land holding consolidation, warehousing, irrigation, quality inputs, marketing etc requires investment of about Rs. 3 lakh crores per annum for next 5 years. otherwise farmer will continue to be debt ridden and farmer suicides will remain unabated.
• No political party will win 2019 election without farm loan waiver promises. Till then farmers will avoid paying loan repayments, especially after Modi farm loan waiver promise for winning UP elections 2017.
• Large waivers like this will pull down economy backward by 2-3 years and state governments running risk of economic collapse is all the more likely. But no escape.
• However these amounts are not so great when compared to Bank's NPA's in excess of Rs.8 lakh crores and another Rs. 6 lakh crores as stressed investments in Telecom sector. After all Agriculture is livelihood for majority of Indians (less educated and less skilled) and the only avocation in rural India.
• This is the price nation has to pay for neglecting rural India and chasing dollars and in the process making rich more richer during the past 25 years of liberalization.

If the RBI agrees with the finance ministry all the time, then it is superfluous; 

And disagrees all the time, then it is obnoxious ... YV Reddy

RBI Governor is neither subordinate nor equal to Finance Minister ... YV Reddy

My View:

RBI which kept stoic silence for Modi's senseless demonetization that costed nation over Rs.128,000 crores during Nov & Dec 2016 months and insurmountable consequential damages, warning Modi now on farm loan waiver consequences makes me believe that it is a conspiracy by Modi & BJP to avert farm loan waivers after UP, for Modi is no friend of farmers and rural India.