Ayodhya verdict - Reminiscences

Nearly 3 decades ago, on December 6, 1992, a long-running dispute between Hindus and Muslims over a religious site in the northern city of Ayodhya took a dramatic turn (Babri Masjid demolished) and changed the course of Indian politics forever. Religious riots erupted, and 900 people, both Muslims and Hindus, were killed in Mumbai. And on March 12, 1993, 13 blasts ripped through the Mumbai city in retaliation for the mosque’s demolition, killing 317. Now, a verdict from the Supreme Court (on Nov 9, 2019) has legally closed the most divisive religious conflict and paved the way for the construction of a Hindu temple at the site. The court has insisted that a mosque also be built, but on an alternative plot of land.  This SC decision will allow the BJP and Modi government to bolster its political fortunes further by construction of a grand Ram temple just ahead of elections in Uttar Pradesh due in March 2022.

• Real closure of the conflict will depend on how, going forward, India treats its more than 175 million Muslim citizens. Anything other than equitable justice will only leave deep scars and gaping wounds.
• Since there has been no violence and protests, we should not mistake this for indifference. But this doesn't entail Muslims accepting the construction of a Ram temple at the site. The court has said that the demolition of the mosque was “a serious violation of the rule of law” and that “it is necessary to provide restitution to the Muslim community for the unlawful destruction of their place of worship.”  Justice in the Babri masjid demolition case is critical to Indian democracy’s promise of fair play and equality.
• In the 2019 election, BJP fielded only seven Muslim candidates. In the 2017 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, where the temple will be built and has 19.3% Muslims (about 4.40 crores), the BJP did not field any Muslim candidates. India owes it to Muslim citizens to address this sense of political marginalization.
• It was the Muslims who suffered the razing of their place of worship; they were also the victims of the violence which followed. The community sought redressal and placed its faith in the institutions for justice. The Supreme Court ruling is riddled with contradictions but its biggest problem is the loss of faith it has triggered among Muslims about the possibility of justice. What can be worse for a democracy when its largest minority group does not hope for justice but fearfully settles for a verdict that they know is no less than injustice to them? -- Arfa Khanum Sherwani writes in thewire.in
• Whatever the provocation from Pakistan and whatever the indignities and horrors inflicted on non-Muslims there, we have to deal with this minority [India’s Muslims] in a civilized manner. If we fail to do so, we shall have a festering sore. -- Jawaharlal Nehru

If Babri Masjid was still standing, would SC have had it demolished? 

-- Justice A.K. Ganguly (Retd Judge of Supreme Court)

The PM Modi's appeal for harmony, on the eve of the Ayodhya verdict, and warning against seeing the outcome as a victory or defeat for either side casts doubts about his prior knowledge and influencing the judgement. Muslims may grudgingly and helplessly accept this verdict with a pinch of salt but in the reverse scenario, Hindu groups (RSS, VHP etc) would definitely have pressurized central government to promulgate ordinance allotting Babri Masjid plot for Ram Janmabhoomi temple construction.

Indian economic recession

In the budget, the FM Nirmala Sitharaman claimed that India’s economy would hit $5 trillion by 2025. In the weeks that followed, GDP growth rater fell to a six-year low of 5%; the RBI made a surplus transfer of Rs 1.76 lakh crore to the union government; and the government announced the merger of ten public-sector banks into four combinations. These announcements came against the backdrop of the precarious state of the Indian economy. The country is witnessing an economic slowdown that has spread from the auto sector to all other segments, the unemployment rate is at a 45-year high and the tax collections from the previous fiscal year presented an estimated shortfall of Rs 1.67 lakh crore from the revenue expected by the BJP government. The going seems difficult for both Sitharaman and the Indian economy.

• The RBI has lowered India's growth forecast for FY20 to 6.1% from 6.9% it projected earlier. The World Bank has cut India's GDP growth forecast from 7.5% to 6% this year.
• India is a consumption-driven economy. When consumers buy goods and services, the wheels of the economy turn. That has not been happening for several quarters and for various reasons.
• Fewer jobs (at 6.1% in 2017-18, unemployment was the highest in 45 years), a freeze in salary hikes and bonuses, layoffs and uncertainty in businesses are making people cut down on spending.
• Incomes and wages in rural India, where 67% of India's population lives, have been hit because of low food prices. Agriculture GDP grew just 2% in the first quarter of the current fiscal, compared to 5.1% in the same quarter of the previous fiscal.
• Consequently growth in private consumption expenditure is down to an 18-quarter low of 3.1% in June 2019. Savings declined to an all-time low because of static or falling incomes.
• Construction, which is a big employment generator, is decelerating because of the slump in real estate. Exports fell 6.57% in Sept 2019 compared to a year ago. Discoms are groaning under a combined debt of over Rs 2.4 lakh crore. Corporate sector revenue growth fell to an 11-quarter low and investments plunged to a 15-year low.
• The banking and financial services sector is in a mess. There is liquidity, but no loans are being given. Banks are tottering under a mountain of NPA's of close to 10% of their total assets. They are fearful of giving fresh loans in case they add to their woes. Non-banking financial companies, which are a major source of consumer loans, are in a mess of their own and unable to extend credit. And the string of collapsing financial institutions has further sapped consumer confidence in the system.
• The government's rescue acts like slashing corporate tax rates and unprecedented interest rate cuts by the RBI seem to be yielding no results in the short term.
• These are exceptional times and they call for exceptional measures. Indian government could take cue from the US Federal Reserve spent nearly 800 billion dollars to pre-empt an imminent economic meltdown in 2008.

The Indian economy is in a vicious downward spiral and the Modi government needs to stop worrying about the fiscal deficit & inflation etc and start pouring money into the economy to stimulate growth. They need to put money in people's pockets in every way they can. This appears to be the only way to get the jammed wheels of the economy moving again.

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What Modi will do now?

Narendra Modi's spectacular win in the general elections 2019, and returning to power by an astonishing margin -- defying expectations, leaving the political opposition gutted and securing nearly two-thirds of the Lok Sabha. This election has proved how wildly popular Modi really is. The big question is: What is he going to do with that? He will probably continue along the same path.

• But there is a sizable chunk of India that voted against Modi, and many members of this anti-Modi crowd are deeply worried about his having a stronger hand.
• They see India as increasingly divided along caste and religious fault lines and an emboldened  Modi will send India farther down the path of becoming a religious Hindu state, which could be dangerous for minorities.
• Hindu extremists did very well in the election. Though Modi has not publicly used their same language, he has also done nothing yet to separate himself from them.
• Modi is not a soft liner. Modi’s deepening reliance on Amit Shah is a sign of the agenda ahead. Amit Shah is the man who recently referred to illegal Muslim immigrants as termites.
• Modi will come under pressure from within BJP to deliver on contentious planks of the party including building Ram temple over the ruins of a destroyed mosque in Ayodhya, abrogate Article 370 for Kashmir and removing special protections that allow India’s minority Muslim community to follow its own system of family law.
• Modi has no reason to deviate from the core agenda, because he received an unprecedented mandate despite the poor economic record and social disharmony.
• India’s path forward during Modi’s second term hinges on just who the real Modi might be.
• Those who studied Modi (68) say he is a complicated man: isolated, ascetic, trusting few, close to even fewer; a blend of populist, nationalist and a self-made success story. He is passionate about his Hindu beliefs and committed to economic development.
• After 5 years, the economy is not doing well and Modi is aware of how economy could define both his legacy and his future political fortunes.
• Modi has demonstrated desire to take his place on the global stage as the leader of world economic super power.
• In Kashmir, Modi might try to tighten control. So far India’s attempts to stamp out dissent have bred only growing resistance. Any further pressure put on Kashmir could mean more tension with Pakistan. Part of Modi’s election surge came from his appearing tough on Pakistan, trading military strikes across the border. The brinkmanship caused anxiety around the world, and Modi may well decide to continue that stance.
• Given the electoral victory he just won, he is unlikely to see any reason to change what has worked for him.
• At the top of his priorities is the urgency to create more jobs, and that is likely to require new laws to grant the government the power of eminent domain to seize land for companies to use to build factories.

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India is at the whim of one man

This election has produced the strongest government India has had. Even Jawaharlal Nehru did not have as much control over his party as Modi does. There was something surreal about this election. The fact that we've reached a point where truth does not seem to matter and that is a dangerous point for a democracy because democracy survives on the fragmentation of power. When people trust each other and distrust their leaders, you get democracy. When people distrust each other and completely trust their leaders, you get dictatorship. We are at the second moment right now. Armed with full majority, non existent opposition and tamed institutions -- Modi will continue with renewed vigor his hate filled destructive and disruptive policies. Only empty coffers, economic, agriculture and unemployment  problems will control him to certain extent.

Mockery of Exit Polls

Almost all exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some pollsters such as News24-Today’s Chanakya and Aaj Tak-AxisMyIndia predicted the BJP’s win to be bigger than even the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Only ABP-Nielsen has predicted the BJP to fall short of majority.

Stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt - people have advised.

Within 60 seconds, Rs 3.2 lakh crore were added to investor kitty as exit polls see NDA win. The highly exaggerated Exit Polls have become another tool to make money and the rich are getting richer at the expense of the gullible small investors.

ABP giving 56 seats to MGB in UP, India today giving 65 seats to BJP in UP. This is the conclusion of Exit polls!

The BJP-JDU alliance is set to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar winning minimum 38 out of the 40 seats, according to the India Today-My Axis India Exit Poll. The RJD-Congress led 'Mahagathbandhan' may only bag maximum 2 seats, as per the exit polls. Is it believable?

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made a stunning allegation against TV channels’ who broadcast their exit poll predictions on Sunday evening. She said that predictions favouring the BJP was a part of a larger ‘game plan’ to ‘manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.’

Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu dismissed the predictions of the exit polls, pointing out that past experience show such analysis usually turn out wrong. "Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people's pulse. Exit polls have provIndia ed to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances..." Mr Naidu tweeted.

Last week, Arnab Goswami had slammed his rival TV channels particularly India Today for ‘leaking’ their exit poll data that gave the NDA only 177 seats, a loss of 177 seats compared to 2014, they claimed. Faced with widespread condemnation, India Today had later clarified that numbers flashed on its channel were part of the channel’s dummy data.

"I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India many people don't tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results," tweeted the Congress parliamentarian Mr Shashi Tharoor. He was referring to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, cementing his authority over the Liberal Party and giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah tweeted "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd". His tweet that did not outright cast doubts on the exit polls that is likely to be seen as a harbinger of the actual results.

Basis Exit Polls, shares of Adani Group companies have shot through the roof:
    Adani Green Energy: 17%
    Adani Gas: 16%  
    Adani Power: 14%
    Adani Transmission: 9% 
    Adani Ports & SEZ: 8%
    Adani Enterprises: 15%

There is no advantage of conducting Exit Polls!  It creates unwanted anxiety to people and politicians. Only TV channels make money.


Many political analysts see opinion polls as an evil in democracy. Opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the fair election process. Opinion polls project what voters are thinking and what their mandate will be. It doesn't direct the voters to go for the majority view or to neglect the minority. Opinion polls are accused of being manipulated and sometimes being wrong. Opinion polls can be manipulated by arranging favorable questions. It is not the duty of the media to keep the moral of the party cadres high. Media is accountable to the people not to the political parties. Indian citizen has the right to freedom of speech and expression and ban on the opinion polls will curtail this right. So argument against opinion polls holds no moral ground. In a country like ours, opinion polls and exit polls are much needed to enrich our healthy democracy. But yesterday's exit polls seems to have been manipulated by ruling BJP in order to keep UPA and allies in disarray so that in case of any marginal opportunity they could knock away the chance to form government with the help of President Kovind.

Modi, the most foul-mouthed PM

Modi’s ouster on 23 May will be India’s fitting reply to the most foul-mouthed PM.

Modi needs to be warned that he’s guilty of anti-national activity in trying to 

ride on sacrifices of Army & CRPF martyrs in a dirty election campaign.

- Mani Shankar Aiyar

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Modi - India's divider in chief - TIME

Of the great democracies to fall to populism, India was the first. Advent of Modi is at once an inevitability and a calamity for India. The country offers a unique glimpse into both the validity and the fantasy of populism.

• This secularism was more than merely a separation between religion and state; in India, it means the equal treatment of all religions by the state, although to many of its critics some being more equal than others. 
• Indian Muslims were allowed to keep Shari’a-based family law, while Hindus were subject to the law of the land.
• Narendra Modi, the son of a tea seller, and his election was nothing short of a class revolt at the ballot box. It was no longer about left, or right, but something more fundamental.
• The nation’s most basic norms, such as the character of the Indian state, its founding fathers, the place of minorities and its institutions, from universities to corporate houses to the media, were shown to be severely distrusted. 
• The cherished achievements of independent India–secularism, liberalism, a free press–came to be seen in the eyes of many as part of a grand conspiracy in which a deracinated Hindu elite, in cahoots with minorities from the monotheistic faiths, such as Christianity and Islam, maintained its dominion over India’s Hindu majority.
• Modi attacked once unassailable founding fathers, such as Nehru, then sacred state ideologies, such as Nehruvian secularism and socialism; he spoke of a “Congress-free” India; he demonstrated no desire to foster brotherly feeling between Hindus and Muslims. Most of all, his ascension showed that beneath the surface of what the elite had believed was a liberal syncretic culture, India was indeed a cauldron of religious nationalism, anti-Muslim sentiment and deep-seated caste bigotry. 
• The country had a long history of politically instigated sectarian riots, most notably the killing of at least 2,733 Sikhs in the streets of Delhi after the 1984 assassination of Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards. The Congress leadership, though hardly blameless, was able to separate itself from the actions of the mob. Modi, by his deafening silences after more recent atrocities, such as the killing of more than 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, in his home state of Gujarat in 2002, proved himself a friend of the mob. 
• Modi, without offering an alternative moral compass, rubbished the standards India had, and made all moral judgment seem subject to conditions of class and culture warfare. 
• When, in 2019, Modi tweets, “You know what is my crime for them? That a person born to a poor family is challenging their Sultunate [sic],” he is trying to resurrect the spirit of 2014, which was the spirit of revolution. 
• In 2014, Modi converted cultural anger into economic promise. He spoke of jobs and development. Taking a swipe at the socialist state, he famously said, “Government has no business being in business.”
• Not only has Modi’s economic miracle failed to materialize, he has also helped create an atmosphere of poisonous religious nationalism in India. One of his young party men put it baldly, “If you are with Modi, you are with India. If you are not with Modi, then you are strengthening anti-India forces.” 
• India’s Muslims, 14% of the population, have been subjected to episode after violent episode, in which Hindu mobs, often with the state’s tacit support, have carried out a series of public lynchings in the name of the holy cow. Hardly a month goes by without the nation watching yet another enraged Hindu mob falls upon a defenseless Muslim. The most enduring image of Modi’s tenure is the sight of Mohammad Naeem in a blood-soaked undershirt in 2017, begging the mob for his life before he is beaten to death. The response of leadership in every instance is the same: virtual silence. Basic norms and civility have been so completely vitiated that Modi can no longer control the direction of the violence. Once hatred has been sanctioned, it is not always easy to isolate its target, and what the BJP has discovered to its dismay is that the same people who are willing to attack Muslims are only too willing to attack lower-caste Hindus as well. 
• Under Modi minorities of every stripe–from liberals and lower castes to Muslims and Christians–have come under assault. Far from his promise of development for all, he has achieved a state in which Indians are increasingly obsessed with their differences. If in 2014 he was able to exploit difference in order to create a climate of hope, in 2019 he is asking people to stave off their desperation by living for their differences alone.

The incumbent Modi may win again–the opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi, an unteachable mediocrity and a descendant of Nehru, is in disarray–but Modi will never again represent the myriad dreams and aspirations of 2014. Then he was a messiah, ushering in a future too bright to behold, one part Hindu renaissance, one part South Korea’s economic program. Now he is merely a politician who has failed to deliver, seeking re-election. Whatever else might be said about the election, hope is off the menu. Modi is merely a politician who has failed to deliver, seeking re-election and what he might do to punish the world for his own failures, if he gets a second term? 

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General election 2019 blues

This is a waveless election (2019) wherein the preference or dismissal of a leader and issues seem to be pre-determined by the social background (caste and community) of voters. 

• The BJP  won 31% of the vote with 282 seats nationally in 2014. This is the highest vote to seat conversion indicating heaviest fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes. Plain arithmetic suggests that if all major non-BJP forces come together, the Modi machine will halt.
• Today BJP today rules 17 of 29 states (a year ago 21/29 states), either directly or with its allies. Despite BJP's countrywide presence, it is also true that the opposition has been winning most of the Lok Sabha by-elections which is a sign of defeat for the Modi-Shah combine in these elections.
• Anti Modi factors are: Demonetisation, GST, cow vigilante  lynchings, agrarian crisis, unemployment, inflation, cattle trade ban, etc.
• Pro Modi factors: Good governance, divided opposition, Balakot airstrike, surgical strikes, absence of major scams, etc. Factors such as welfare schemes like the PM Awas Yojana, Ujjwala Yojana (free LPG cylinder connection to BPL families), Rs 2,000 to the farmers, are secondary reasons for BJP.
• BJP which won in UP (71/80 seats), Rajasthan (25/25), Gujarat (26/26), Bihar (31/40), MP (27/29), Chattisgarh (10/11), Maharashtra (22/48) and Karnataka (17/28), in 2014, may lose most of these seats in 2019. 
• There is no perceptible Modi “wave” this time and the muscular nationalism plank that the BJP banks on fails to evoke the required response in the face of widespread agrarian crisis.
• The public resentment against the BJP governments is glaringly evident even though some believe that Modi has no alternative. It is also clear the BJP is not adding any new constituency of voters. The trends point to a clear reduction of the BJP’s tally from its commanding position of 2014. 
• Stung by the failure of the campaign based on muscular nationalism in the early phases of voting, the BJP desperately looks for new strategies and altered roadmaps, with emphasis on Hindutva. The candidature of the Malegaon blast accused, Sadhvi Pragya Singh Thakur, in Bhopal against Digvijaya singh is a major step towards Hindutva consolidation.
• Modi's election campaign is increasingly looking like his style of governance over the last five years, particularly the manner in which demonetization and GST were pursued. A new narrative every day, with new reasoning and strategies along with altered road maps to attain a proclaimed objective. This could also lead to results as chaotic as demonetization and GST produced.
• Congress party has scored some vital points in terms of ideation of new policy initiatives and programmes, but has failed to follow this up with solid organisational initiatives and electoral strategies.
• In Uttar Pradesh, multiple narratives are impacting the election in different ways. BJP's candidate's weaker profile as compared to BSP-SP-RLD alliance is widely acknowledged.
• People are not interested in communal issues but have economic concerns. The BJP had impar­ted a larger-than-life cult image to Modi. Even now they are projecting him as a lone lion in the jungle versus the rest. This is not going to work now.
• Had even a single person been killed in Pakistan by our our strikes, would they have returned Wing Commander Abhinandan in one single piece within days? Is Imran Khan not answerable to the people of Pakistan? So how did Amit Shah claim we killed 250 Pakistanis!” -- Raj Thackeray 
• EVM's are neither easy to tamper with and at the same time not tamper proof. Its non-transparent mechanism gives scope for losing candidate to think that EVM has been tampered with. Unless public confidence is earned, EVM will remain a contentious issue. EC telling that EVMs are perfect without explaining how they are perfect is nonsense.
• This election is not about who wins but to ensure that the BJP loses so that the nation survives. “We will take on each other later.”  -- Raj Thackeray 
• Mukesh Ambani had recently extended his support to Congress candidate Milind Deora in South Mumbai constituency. Raj Thackeray called this shift in Ambani’s loyalty from BJP to Congress is a big message to the country. Ambani is Uddhav Thackeray’s close friend but decided to side with a Congress candidate is a clear indication that Modi is heading towards defeat.

As things stand today, a weak opposition is Modi’s biggest strength and he is likely to benefit from the TINA (there is no alternative) factor the most, with other positives contributing towards making him virtually unassailable. Reactions from the echelons of the Sangh Parivar after the first two rounds of polling point towards a sense of unease. Many leaders admit that there is a possibility that the BJP would only win half the seats it had in 2014. 

Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik’s act of dissolving the Assembly when three non-BJP political parties in the State were on the verge of forming a coalition government is of a piece with the systematic undermining of democratic polity. Modi unleashing CBI, ED, Income Tax etc on all anti-BJP parties terrorizing opposing candidates and immobilizing their associates is gross misuse of institutions which are supposed work autonomously. In order to safeguard democracy it is important that Modi & BJP must be defeated in this 2019 elections and be watchful that future governments don't follow the same path. 

Why Modi built Sardar Patel statue?

  

The Statue of Unity, depicting Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, is being championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but there is far more to the story of this expensive project. It was Dy PM Sardar Patel  who banned RSS in the aftermath of Gandhi's assasination said "the RSS was not involved... his assassination was welcomed by those of the RSS ...". Golwalkar repeatedly pleaded with Patel, but Patel remained firm. He lifted the ban only after the RSS pledged to stay away from politics, not be secretive and abjure violence and professed "loyalty to the Constitution of India and the National Flag". After removal of ban, RSS hoisted the flag at their headquarters on 26th January 1950. 

• The hope is that this monument to Patel will attract lakhs of tourists, but there is far more going on with this strange and expensive statue.
• The statue was a bold assertion of Gujarati nationalism as it was to give Narendra Modi a political lineage to distinguish him from the parent RSS, which sat out the freedom movement. 
• Why he didn’t build a statue of Guru Golwalkar or Deen Dayal Upadhyaya or V.D. Savarkar. Or even Subhash Chandra Bose, speaks volumes about his designs to snatch Patel's legacy from Congress.
• Patel is a historic Indian figure - crucial to the Indian independence movement and political organisation of postcolonial India. This on its own, though, does not exactly warrant building the ‘world’s tallest statue’ in his honor. Rather, it is the contemporary politics of Modi’s nationalist project and its model of development that explains Patel’s extraordinary memorialization. 
• During his term as Jawaharlal Nehru’s Deputy Prime Minister, Patel negotiated - through diplomatic tact underpinned by the threat of force - the incorporation of the 562 princely states of colonial India into the Union of India. This earned him a reputation as the “Iron man of India” and as the unifier of India.
• Today, the assertion of Indian unity has political meaning beyond the incorporation of the princely states into modern India. Within the Hindutva view of India, unity must be centred around Hinduism and India as a distinctly Hindu civilization.
• Modi’s statue project seeks to emphasise moving away from secular leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru. Patel’s reputation as an ‘Iron man’ and his willingness to use force to unify India is a counter to Nehru’s nonviolent foreign policy.
• The statue is connected to Modi and the BJP’s promise for development and investment. In Modi’s time Gujarat was known for authoritarian leadership, communal tensions, and largely jobless, GDP growth.
• Many believe that BJP has become aware of lack of faces among in the ranks in the list of freedom fighters and that the statue might be a gimmick ahead of elections.

There were so many iconic personalities of independence struggle but the reason why Modi selected Patel for 'Statue' is due to his Hindutva inclinations despite banning and RSS and professing secularism is due to his hatred towards Nehru and Congress and that Gujarati Patel would have become first PM in the absence of Nehru. What he ignores is Patel and Nehru - admiration they had for each other. Patel, in his reply to Nehru on August 3, 1947, wrote "Many thanks for your letter on the first instance. Our attachment and affection for each other and our comradeship for an unbroken period of nearly 30 years admit of no formalities. My services will be at your disposal. I hope for the rest of my life, you will have unquestioned loyalty and devotion from me in the cause for which no man in India has sacrificed as much as you have. Our combination is unbreakable and therein lies our strength. I thank you for the sentiments expressed in your letter." No matter what ever Modi does, Patel remains Congressman and his legacy belongs to Congress. Never to RSS who were hand in hand with British during pre-independence days.

Sardar Patel statue - farmer's fume

The world's tallest statue, the Statue of Unity dedicated to the iron man of India Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel is all set to be unveiled by PM Narendra Modi on October 31, 2018, the birth anniversary of Sardar Patel. The work of 182-meter tall statue has been completed after round the clock work by 3,400 labourers and 250 engineers at Sadhu Bet island on Narmada River in Gujarat costs Rs.3,000 crores.

• The 182-metre (597 ft) statue is the tallest in the world and is twice the size that of Statue of Liberty in New York City, which stands at 93-metres and four times the size of Christ the Redeemer in Rio de Janeiro. It is built from 90,000 tonnes of cement and 25,000 tonnes of iron.
• Larsen & Toubro won the contract in October 2014 for its lowest bid of Rs 2,989 crore (US$420 million) for the design, construction and maintenance. Gujarat government is reported to have paid more than half of that amount. The remainder came from the central government or public donations.
• Work on the statue started in December 2013 and was to be completed in 42 months. This was extended by another four months because the critical design phase took longer than expected.
• "Instead of spending money on a giant statue, the government should have used it for farmers in the district," Mr Vijendra Tadvi, a 39 year old farmer, said, adding that farmers in the area still lack basic irrigation facilities. The statue is complete and Mr Tadvi has found more work as a driver on construction sites. But he is still unimpressed by the government's largesse. All of this is about 10 kms from Mr Tadvi's village, Nana Pipaliya, in the largely poor, rural and tribal Narmada district. Many of its households continue to live in hunger, primary school enrolment has been falling and malnourishment persists, according to a report published in 2016 by the state government.
• But the government believes the memorial will boost the district's economy, as they expect about 2.5 million annual visitors. 
• According to the 2011 census, some 85% of the district's working population is engaged in agriculture, a sector which is dominated by small farmers who own two to four acres of land.
• In the shadow of Patel's statue, farmers have resorted to stealing water. They say they can see the water passing by their farms through a canal that transports it from the dam, but it's illegal to divert the water so they are forced to steal it. One of the farmers said he had laid a pipe underground from the canal to his farm, adding that nearly all farmers in the area did this to survive. "We don't have any option but to take the water illegally as there are no sources of water left for us."

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Modi’s penchant for talking big and doing nothing has a chilling similarity with Mussolini’s Fascist Italy is that in the Mussolini regime, politics starts to be less concerned with the act of governing people in an efficient way, for instance, in solving their economic problems. Instead, it is focused more on the spectacle of power, on the visual and impressive display of symbols, myths and rituals and impressive speeches. In terms of everyday life this takes the shape of a domination of form of visual appearance, effects over the content. It also means that politics ceases to be measured by political criteria. Politics itself assumes the form of an artistic act. Ever since Modi became CM of Gujarat in 2001 and then PM in 2014, he has done nothing for the farmers of India in general and farmers of Gujarat in particular, except doling out empty speeches. Needless to say this Rs.3,000 if spent for the benefit of farmers would have changed the course of farmer's lives in about 4 districts forever. Alas good things are rarely done.

With majority eluding in 2019, BJP has to accommodate allies

As things stand at the moment, it is unlikely for BJP to get simple majority in 2019 elections but will retain the position of the single largest party. Assuming that large parts of the opposition remain together, BJP may hold on to at best 210 seats in the Lok Sabha. This would bring the BJP to the size of the Congress in the last UPA government. 

• Regional parties that are not currently in it but have been at one time, like some of the Tamilian parties, may join in. Which were once there but have become opponents (TDP, BJD etc.) could join again or remain neutral. Therefore, even if the BJP loses 70 or 80 seats, it should still be possible for the party to return to power.
• This will be an entirely new situation for Modi, who became the chief minister of Gujarat without having fought a single election. He has always led a majority government. A few months into his term, Gujarat burst into flames.
• Modi's only experience is as a CM in heading government where he controlled the full majority and often a two-thirds one. Old leaders were sidelined. New loyal faces were brought in. Modi picked and chose his Cabinet and dominated by holding all the key portfolios.
• Amit Shah, the second most powerful leader in the country today, was not given cabinet rank and was kept as MoS in the decade he served under Modi in Gujarat.
• Modi’s brilliant campaign of 2014 then produced a similar situation in Delhi and he was the undisputed leader of a party that had previously had some divisions but was always more disciplined than the Congress. Old leaders like LK Advani and MM Joshi were shunted out. Others like Sushma Swaraj had to submit. The party is seen as a big happy family today but it is not. BJP also has many who are capable of doing more but are being deliberately held back. With BJP having less than 210 seats, these individuals & regional leaders will assert themselves in a way that they are not doing now. 

It will be fascinating to see how Modi, for the first time in his political life without a majority, will manage the ambitions and the conflicts. At 210 seats, the position of the PM will be like that of Manmohan Singh. He was wrongly seen as weak, rather than the position of a man whose allies have a veto on his actions. There is no defence against such allies except for martyrdom. One can sacrifice the government, or one’s position, and move on. But if one wants to lead in a government where the majority is missing, then allies will have to be accommodated. This is something which Modi never did. Running a minority government requires flexibility and the ability to swallow humiliation. Allies will make sure that their hold is made public and this will mean getting the government to bend a few times. It will be fascinating to see how Modi manages this, particularly for those who have observed the meteoric trajectory of his career. Minority governments and khichdi coalitions has not hampered India’s economic and social growth. Those who fear a minority government or a hamstrung BJP should not despair. Coalitions are not evil. What will be instructive will be to see how Modi manages one.

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Modi & Amit Shah duo would like to sit in opposition and allow a 'kichdi' coalition take charge and collapse with its own contradictions in an year or two and win back in mid term polls emulating fall of Janata Party and return of Indira Gandhi in 1980. Although not easier, RSS have given clear direction that it would like Modi to pave way to more acceptable person like Nitin Gadkari to lead BJP lead NDA government. Easing out Modi & Shah is a big challenge for RSS and softliners. 

IL&FS: Rs 91,000 crore mess

IL&FS Head Quarters at BKC, Mumbai

IL&FS Financial Services MD & CEO Ramesh Bawa along with four independent directors and a non-executive director quit on Sept 21, 2018 just hours after the parent IL&FS informed lenders that it would be unable to make payments on ₹250 crore of debt falling due. On Sept 30, 2018, rating agency ICRA had downgraded IL&FS citing factors like liquidity pressure and high debt levels - to BB from AA+. The central government on Oct 1, 2018 dissolved the 15-member board of IL&FS in a move to revamp investor confidence scalded by the firm’s defaults and fears of a credit freeze. The board was replaced with a new six-member panel headed by Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Bank Uday Kotak. The board of IL&FS has unanimously appointed Hemant Bhargava, Managing Director, LIC and nominee on the board of the company as Non Executive Chairman with immediate effect. The newly-appointed board is expected to chalk out a resolution plan and submit its first take within 15 days.

• The troubles at IL&FS had been intensifying since July, when the company's founder Ravi Parthasarathy has resigned as the Non-Executive Chairman of IL&FS, which he served for over 30 years, citing health reasons. Parthasarathy, an alumnus of IIM Ahmedabad joined the IL&FS in 1987 as President & Chief Executive Officer and was appointed as Managing Director in 1989. He was later designated Executive Chairman of the company.  
• IL&FS also failed to repay corporate deposits subscribed by the Small Industries and Development Bank of India (SIDBI). It only repaid ₹50 crore out of 250 crore.
• Some group companies have started defaulting on repayment of commercial paper and other instruments to the tune of ₹300-400 crore. 
• IL&FS Group has shown a loss of ₹2,670 crore for the year 2017-18 in consolidated balance sheet. The leverage is about 13 times as the borrowing of about ₹91,000 crore is on on the base of equity capital and reserves of about ₹6,950 crore. IL&FS is burdened with a consolidated debt of around ₹91,000 crore, of which ₹55,000 crore is housed in the special purpose vehicles created to build infrastructure ranging from roads to power companies. 
• Among the public sector banks, Bank of India has the highest exposure of Rs 2,388 crore. The company also owes Rs 1,841 crore to Yes Bank, the maximum among private lenders.
• IL&FS has deep business ties with the roads ministry and its agencies such as National Highway Authority of India. States and the centre, including their agencies, owe as much as ₹16,000 crore in receivables to ILF&S. The company claimed in its recent letter to its employees stated that "had the concession authorities released our monies", IL&FS would not be in the current situation.
• IL&FS was due to repay ₹1,066 crore of its debt by October and around ₹1,953 crore between September 26 and September 30. The company needs an immediate capital infusion of ₹3,000 crore and is planning a ₹4,500-crore rights issue. 
• LIC and ORIX Corporation are the largest shareholders in IL&FS with their stakeholding at 25.34 % and 23.54%, respectively. Other prominent shareholders include ADIA (12.56%), HDFC (9.02%), CBI (7.67%) and SBI (6.42%). 

• Its woes are shared by other infrastructure funding institutions in India that have been unable to cope with projects that have got stuck and become unviable. IL&FS needs nearly ₹15,000 crore in financial support to avert a collapse and could only be saved if lenders agreed to take a big haircut.
• IL&FS had compromised on corporate governance and risk management norms. The risk management committee of IL&FS did not meet between 2015 and 2018, except once in July 2015. IL&FS has not been able to take up any new infrastructure projects after 2015.  
• The fact that the company continued to pay dividends and huge managerial payouts regardless of looming liquidity crisis shows that the management had lost total credibility. The company paid dividend of ₹65.70 crore in 2017-18. The company posted a standalone profit of ₹584 crore in 2017-18. Average managerial remuneration increase was 66% in 2017-18 and the average salary increase of other employees during the year was 4.44%. Last year Ravi Parthasarathy, the Chairman, got a 144% jump in remunerations to ₹26.3 crore, Hari Sankaran, Vice-chairman and MD, got a 3.86% hike to  ₹7.7 crore and Arun K Saha, Joint MD & CEO, 10.43% hike. 
• The financial mismanagement of the IL&FS is apparent from its rapid debt built up and misrepresentation of true state of financial fragility, which is being reflected in unprecedented rating downgrade from highly rated to a default category.
• The report also warned about repercussions due to lack of authentic information in the market about the financial status of 169 unlisted group companies of IL&FS.
• The group will sell its corporate headquarters in Mumbai’s Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) to raise funds to stave off repayment challenges and switches to an asset light strategy. The sale of the corporate headquarters is expected to fetch Rs 1,300-1,500 crore. IL&FS is also planning to sell some 25 projects, which will reduce its debt by Rs 30,000 crore.
• The Ministry of Corporate Affairs got a lookout notice issued for former directors Ravi Parthasarathy and Ramesh Bawa, and serving directors Hari Sankaran, Karunakaran Ramachand. However, Ravi Parthasarathy is in London at the moment for medical treatment and there is no clarity about when he will return. All others are said to be in India.
• Board directors can’t be absolved of their obligations by resigning abruptly. That wouldn’t absolve them of any wrongdoing. The government on Mon Oct 1, 2018 ordered an investigation by SFIO into IL&FS and its subsidiaries after they failed to make repayments on time, damaging investor confidence and sparking fears of defaults by other NBFCs that roiled the markets. 
• The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) kicked off its probe into financial irregularities at IL&FS by questioning the top management, searching the group’s offices and gathering information from its servers. The agency will also question the ousted directors and former chief Ravi Parthasarathy. 
• Apart from the board members sacked on Oct 1, 2018, the agency will also question those who resigned recently amid defaults and rating downgrades. For instance, Ramesh C Bawa quit as chief executive and managing director of IL&FS Financial Services on September 21, the day it defaulted on an IDBI letter of credit that came due. 
• Gujarat Urban Development Company Limited (on behalf of the Government of Gujarat) and IL&FS are jointly developing Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT) project since 2006 when Modi was  CM of Gujarat. IL&FS is an 50:50 investor and co-developer in the project. About 866 acres of real estate is to be developed for commercial, residential etc to provide one million direct & indirect jobs in Financial, IT & BPO segments. After 12 years and as on Jan 1, 2018, the GIFT city has 2 million sq.ft. operational and 3 million sq.ft. under development out of has 62 million sq. ft. in its master plan. GIFT has attracted about $1.5 billion in investments. About 150 companies have started operations employing just 8,000 people. The city hopes to employ a million one day.
• "It is completely baseless to say that ₹70,000 crore worth of project (GIFT City) has been handed-over to IL&FS. In all the phases of GIFT City development, only ₹10,000 cr is projected to be spent on entire infrastructure development," says the Gujarat government.
• The Congress on Sept 30, 2018 stepped up its attack on PM Modi, with party President Rahul Gandhi alleging that public savings (funds from SBI and LIC) was being used to bail-out the debt-ridden IL&FS group. 
• The Congress has raised the issue and warned of "an impending 'Lehman Brothers-type' economic crisis facing the country". The IL&FS crisis has also dented equity investors confidence in the entire NBFC space. Congress party has called for a forensic audit of the group over the disbursement of ₹42,000 crore in the last four years.   

The central government's swift action to seize control of IL&FS, within hours of payments default, and ordering investigation is more typical of China's command-and-control economy than a free-wheeling democracy like India, stunned investors by surprise. It indicates that Govt, FM, PM etc are aware of the situation for the past several months but actions were announced in a dramatist manner. The restoration of confidence of the money, debt and capital markets, the banks and financial institutions in the credibility and financial solvency of the IL&FS Group is of utmost importance for the financial stability of the nation. Modi & Jaitley have few options since the economy was already grappling with surging fuel prices and a plunging currency and widening fiscal gap. Any company going bust due to mismanagement, reckless spending, non transparent operations, financial frauds, political corruption etc and Govt attempting to recapitalize with a hope to turn around is generally futile. Very rarely, say 1 or 2 in 100 will succeed. The classic examples are Air India, BSNL which went from bad to worse to worst. The best way is to wind up these companies, liquidate its assets and pay up prorata due amounts to creditors even if it entails loss of credibility. That would at least send clear message that government will never bailout any company at the expense of public interest. Lenders are hopeful of recovery with 10-15% haircut, but when it really happens it could be as high as 25-30%. Govt must ensure that who ever has committed process violations must be prosecuted and punished, but in India the statistics show dismal 6% conviction rate. The new board members suffer legacy issues and none has any experience in infra space to handle the crises and instill market confidence.

Who is trying to bring down PM Modi?

The right-wing Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) in India kicked off a three-day conclave in Delhi on Monday by praising the main Opposition Congress party for securing India's independence. It also clarified it did not believe in a Congress-mukt (Congress-free) India but a sarvalok-yukt (all-inclusive) India. It came as a surprise because the RSS' prime minister, Narendra Modi, has spent four years spewing venom against the Congress, its prime ministers and the family that holds the party together. Certainly, the RSS revealed its changed thinking when it invited Congress chief Rahul Gandhi to this conclave. Despite Rahul's surprise hug for Modi in Parliament, better sense prevailed and he spurned the RSS invitation (unlike former president Pranab Mukherjee, who attended an RSS function in Nagpur in June, thinking he was laying the ground for himself to head a coalition government after the 2019 election). And though the RSS is eternally tainted with the assassination of "Mahatma" MK Gandhi in 1948, it has occasionally flirted with the Congress as evidenced by the fact of dozens of RSS men named as culprits in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.

Still it is surprising that with a majority government still in the saddle and about eight months to go before the parliamentary election, the RSS finds it necessary to extend an olive branch to the main opposition party. It cannot be, as the RSS claims, that it is a misunderstood organisation and that this exercise is meant to dispel the wrong notions surrounding it. The RSS thrives on a certain element of mystery and myth given its rigid hierarchy and organisation and its para-military nature. There is only one explanation for the RSS's current behaviour: it has read the writing on the wall that its government is on its way out. Hence it is building bridges with opposition parties, because it fears what may come once Modi is out of power.

That things are not going well for Modi is evident from various other recent developments. NDA allies like Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) have started acting tough. The Bihar chief minister, who till recently was silently facing all-round opprobrium for dumping his electoral partner (the Rashtriya Janata Dal) and hitching his wagon to the BJP, is now demanding his pound of flesh before the next parliamentary election - he does not want just a handful of seats to contest and has formally inducted Prashant Kishor, the data-genius behind Modi's 2014 victory, into his party to ensure it remains the senior partner in any future electoral alliance in Bihar. Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has demanded an early assembly election in which he hopes to do well, and he is least bothered about Modi's pet project of a simultaneous parliamentary and assembly election. Even Ram Vilas Paswan, a dalit leader from Bihar who is reliably a political weathercock, has been talking about leaving Modi's National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The rats are obviously deserting the sinking ship.

The RSS would likely be concerned. In Delhi there is a general expectation that Modi's parliamentary tally will decrease to around 150 seats following the 2019 election, and while that would ordinarily be enough to remove a leader and replace him with someone acceptable to coalition partners (who have been silently licking their wounds of neglect the past four-plus years), the RSS also knows that removing either Modi or party chief Amit Shah will not be easy. Both these gentlemen are apparently willing to sit in opposition and let a coalition government totter about for two to two and a half years before finally collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. Modi fashions himself after iron lady Indira Gandhi, and like her, might bide his time to return to the top post as she did in 1980, after a nearly three-year hiatus.

This does not suit the RSS, which would rather try to retain governance under a different prime minister, heading a coalition that was much like the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government. There are various advantages to this: to consolidate much of the hidden social work and deep changes in the education sector that the rightwing has undertaken since May 2014. Modi has been such a polarising figure that a replacement government would want to first of all undo much of the damage to institutions that he has inflicted, in the name of getting things done, where his will was supreme over any Constitutional nicety or propriety.

First things first, however: the RSS has to save its own skin. There are many political parties who would like to give the RSS cadres a thrashing of their lives. The RSS must be highly conscious of the fact that the atmosphere against it will change drastically once Modi loses power. Hence, the RSS top brass have humbly recounted Congress's contribution of independent India's history, and have extended the peace pipe to Rahul Gandhi. It is a heartening sign for Indian democracy that Rahul has showed the RSS its place - that it does not rule supreme over all Indians, but merely over a sullen part of society, whose achhe din are hopefully soon coming to an end.

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Modi's adventurism

Adventurism is a pejorative term referring to politics or activism that involves reckless and  irresponsible behavior or conduct pursued only in the interest of excitement. Adventurism is defined as an attitude or way of behaving that involves attempting to gain an advantage by doing things that are regarded as foolish or risky. Adventurism is often used as a criticism against some government's policies. Countries pursuing foreign wars of dubious merit or which have little chance of success have often been accused of adventurism by opponents.

• By general consensus, the government was widely seen to have faltered on four major counts. It is accused of failing to tackle the over-hang of demonetization, poor implementation of GST, containing prices and inability to create new jobs. Positive endorsements from the IMF, World Bank, investment bankers and a few contrarian economists were contemptuously dismissed.
• Notwithstanding Rahul Gandhi's assertion that he can fix the problems in six months, macro-economic interventions will take more than a couple of quarters to yield results.
• It has been argued with some merit that many pain points in demonetisation and GST rollout could have been mitigated if the bureaucracy and tax-administration were better prepared and proactive.
• Demonetisation is considered to be the biggest villain. There is no denying that demonetisation had worst affected deep rural, where the banking network is least developed. In the cities, small-towns and "urban" areas, the situation largely settled at a new normal in about eight to twelve weeks.
• There is no disagreement among experts that GST was the mega tax reform that was long overdue. Considering the gargantuan scale of the exercise, it would have been naïve to expect a totally seamless transition. The Opposition had smelt an opportunity for muddying the waters and waylaying the government on GST. They were hoping the turmoil would carry through into the next fiscal year damaging BJP's prospects in 2019.
• Inflation is the only area where Modi government's performance has been the best. This is also largely due to low oil prices for over three years resulting in narrowing of the twin deficits. No magic wand with Modi, it just happened. Nevertheless, credit goes to Modi & Jaitley.
• Very high petrol & diesel prices despite lower crude oil prices and thus depriving consumers the benefit of dynamic pricing is a false step that will become a poll plank against Modi. 
• Without any doubt, job creation remains the most serious of the four weak spots in Modi's portfolio. But there are no quick fixes for it. The Congress and the UPA bought time on it with doles like MNREGA.
• Long-term job creation will come only through the next wave of reforms - especially on the fronts of labour legislation and land acquisition laws. But the government does not have either the time or political capital left for further economic adventures so late into its term. So, jobs will have to wait till 2019 for a real take-off.
• What the government cannot afford anymore are governance boo-boos and fiscal adventurism. 

NDA government's policies and actions are nothing but a divisive, destructive and disruptive propaganda. The country is in the grip of communal politics and there is no contradiction between communalism and development. BJP attempts communalism by uniting the largest group and compelling minorities to join the mainstream as politically junior partners but forgets that we are a nation of diverse cultures, sects and religions and can only stay united with a secular thread of humanity and protection of minorities.  BJP failed in fulfilling most promises made in its election manifesto especially remunerative prices for farm produce. People are disillusioned with their false promises as seen by the recent by-election results held in different parts of the country. General elections are just eight months away and BJP is on perfect slippery slope, due to its own arrogant, audacious and ill conceived adventurous actions.

Rupee hits historic low of ₹71 per USD

USD INR breaches life time low of  ₹71

The Indian rupee touched a historic low of ₹71 against the US dollar on Fri Aug 31, 2018, falling 26 paise today, 1.55% during the week and more than 11% year-to-date. It was trading at around ₹64 to the dollar on same day last year. 

The causes of supporting USD and INR weakening are:

• Consistent demand for the USD from oil importers.
• Fall in EM currencies.
• Rising crude oil prices.
• Inflationary pressures.
• Lingering Sino-US trade tensions.
• Looming US sanctions against Iran's oil exports.
• Shutdowns in Libya, debt crisis in Venezuela have led to crude oil supply constraints. 
• India's widening current account deficit.
• INR is under performing its emerging market (EM) counterparts.
• US economy reported best performance in last nearly 4 years, showing 4.2% growth. 
• As the US economy is growing and US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the demand for dollar has also been increasing.

Rupee is still overvalued and healthy forex reserves may limit the downside of the rupee. RBI may crush speculative longs but it can do little to prevent INR opening weaker on gaps. RBI is unlikely to intervene as the rupee is still overvalued and currencies of EMs are also depreciating. 

Since the present situation that is strengthening USD and weakening INR is likely to continue for some more time, USD-INR rate could touch ₹80 by end of the year. Despite good monsoon, depreciating rupee and its consequences on domestic price rises etc could spell doom for Modi since general elections are just 8 months away and there is very little he could do to contain damages.

Varavara Rao & 4 others arrested - Arbitrary crackdown

Deccan Chronicle | Hyderabad | 29-8-2018

Virasam leader Varavara Rao (77 years), lawyer Sudha Bharadwaj, Arun Fereira, Gautam Navlakha and Vernon Gonsalves were arrested on 28-8-2018 by the Maharashtra Police for their alleged involvement in organising Elgaar Parishad, suspected with Maoist links, earlier this year in Pune. They were arrested under IPC Section 153 (A) and according to the FIR, provocative speeches were made at the event, and these triggered the violence in Bhima Koregaon.

• The National Human Rights Commission observed that "it appears that the standard operating procedure in connection with these arrests has not been properly followed by the police authorities, which may amount to violation of their human rights."
• He’s almost 80 years old. I don’t know how he will hold up in prison, said Hemalatha, Varavara Rao’s wife, as she broke into tears.
• This entire plot is devised to garner Hindutva support. Modi is already losing support and he wants to gather sympathy by stating that a Hindu leader is going to be killed. This Bhima Koregaon, an assertion of Dalits is a barricade to the Hindutva politics, so they want to taint it, said Kurmanath.
• This is a witch hunt and an attempt to divert attention from the failures of the current government, questions that are being raised about demonetisation, the Rafael deal, and right wing extremism, said historian Ramachandra Guha.
• The Hyderabad High Court bench of Justice C V Nagarjuna Reddy and Justice T Amarnath Goud gave the direction while hearing an urgent plea filed by Hemalatha wife of Varavara Rao. Seeking counters from DGPs of Maharashtra and Telangana, the bench said that it would declare the arrest illegal if their counters did not disclose a valid case against the writer. “If it is found that police did not follow due procedure, we will intervene,” the bench said while adjourning the case to next week. 
• The Supreme Court today (29-8-2018) said the five people arrested yesterday in connection with the Bhima Koregaon investigation should be kept under house arrest till Sep 6, 2018 - the date of the next hearing in the case.
• Dissent is the safety valve of democracy and if you don't allow these safety valves, it will burst, said the Supreme Court bench, which comprised Chief Justice Dipak Misra, and Justices A M Khanwilkar and D Y Chandrachud.

The recent multi-city crackdown on human rights activists and left-leaning intellectuals and academics is in violation of fundamental rights. It was totally unjust, but sought to be justified on the pretext that they working against the country’s interest. But the fact remains that they championed the cause of the country’s impoverished people. It would be a sad day for Indian democracy when the defense of the weak and vulnerable is treated as a crime.

Demonetisation - Much about nothing - RBI report

The Hindu Businessline | August 30, 2018

The RBI, its annual report released on Wed Aug 28, 2018, has revealed that only  ₹16,050 crore out of the  ₹15,44,000 lakh crore (1.04%) of the scrapped higher denomination notes have not returned back into the banking system and therefore remain missing or unaccounted for. This data has raised questions about the overall gains and the impact on the economy, especially the informal sector, because of the disruption 'Demonetization' has caused. 

• The Modi government had framed the dramatic announcement as a move to clamp down on corruption and black money, cut off terrorist financing and tackle fake notes. But with almost all the demonetised notes coming back, everyone wonders whether the stated purpose of demonetisation has been served.
• Modi's hidden objectives of demonetisation were (i) its perceived windfall in terms of an enhanced dividend for the government from the RBI as government expected at least 30% (~₹5,00,000 crores) of cash, black money stacked will not get back into banking system and (ii) disarming opposition parties with all their stacked cash becoming worthless and thus paving his way to win UP elections effortlessly.  
• The initial narrative by the government was that a large amount of demonetised currency will not find its way back into the system. This purported benefit did not materialise in any significant way. It cannot be said that significant losses have been inflicted upon those holding black money.  
• The claim that it would lead to an increase in tax collection, nothing can be anything with confidence.
• During the reporting financial year, 522,783 pieces of counterfeit notes were detected in the banking system, which was 31.4% lower than in the previous year.
• The cash-based terror and criminal activities may have been disrupted for some time, as did cash-based legitimate activity, it is not clear that there has been any significant disruption.
• The liquidity surge in the banking system that came about in the aftermath of demonetisation complicated the RBI's conduct of monetary policy.
• RBI had to introduce many instruments to absorb demonetisation induced liquidity from banks.
• The increase in CRR dented bank's earnings.
• The mopping up of liquidity eroded the RBI’s earnings. 
• RBI's expenditure on printing of currency doubled from the previous year. 
• RBI's income for the year decreased by 23.56% and its expenditure increased by 107.8% resulting in a sharp decline in the RBI’s surplus.
• Demonetisation served as a negative shock to the economy. GDP growth in the Jan-Mar 2017 quarter slowed to 6.1%, and to 5.7% in the next quarter (April-June 2017). 
• A number of small-scale businesses were adversely affected. The unorganised sector especially bore the brunt of the sudden shock. Economic activity shrinkage is over ₹300,000 crores & loss of jobs at over 2 million, this is the worst any PM could do to any nation. 
• The value of banknotes in circulation increased by 37.7% over the year to ₹18,03,700 crore as at end-March 2018. The volume of banknotes, however, increased by 2.1%.
• While there no benefits at all (all pain & no gain), the clear lesson is that tax reforms and effective monitoring of suspicious transactions are a better alternative for addressing the stated objectives. 

What India has done to its money is sickening and immoral - Steve Forbes ... In November 2016, India's government perpetrated an unprecedented act that is not only damaging its economy and threatening destitution to countless millions of its already poor citizens but also breathtaking in its immorality. Without any warning India abruptly scrapped 85% of its currency. It claims the move will fight corruption and tax evasion by allegedly flushing out illegal cash, crippling criminal enterprises and terrorists and force-marching India into a digitized credit system. Human nature hasn't changed since we began roaming this planet. People will always find ways to engage in wrongdoing. Terrorists aren't about to quit their evil acts because of a currency change. There's no misunderstanding what this is truly about: attacking your privacy and inflicting more government control over your life. What India has done is commit a massive theft of people's property without even the pretense of due process--a shocking move for a democratically elected government. (One expects such things in places like Venezuela.) Not surprisingly, the government is downplaying the fact that this move will give India a onetime windfall of perhaps tens of billions of dollars. By stealing property, further impoverishing the least fortunate among its population and undermining social trust, thereby poisoning politics and hurting future investment, India has immorally and unnecessarily harmed its people, while setting a dreadful example for the rest of the world. 

Kerala floods, a man-made disaster

In late July 2018, severe flooding affected Kerala due to unusually high rainfall during the monsoon season. Kerala's worst floods in nearly a century affected all 14 districts placed on high alert. Report as on 21 Aug 2018 ... No. of Villages Affected:776 | Population Affected:54,11,712 | Lives lost: 373 | Missing: 32 | Evacuated:2,80,679 (7,500 in last 24 Hrs) | Relief Camps:5,645 | Inmates in Relief Camps: 12,47,496. The flooding has affected hundreds of villages, destroyed about 10,000 km of roads and thousands of homes have been damaged or destroyed. The total loss is estimated at about ₹20,000 crores.

• The rainfall on Aug 8, 2018 was 310 mm. Kerala has 41 rivers flowing into the Arabian Sea, and 80 of its dams are now said to be open after being overwhelmed.
• The overflow gates of the Idukki Dam were opened after a gap of 26 years. For the first time in history all five overflow gates of the Idukki Dam were opened. For the first time in the state's history, 35 of its 42 dams have been opened, flooding local low-lying areas.
• Around 42 teams from the Indian Army and the Navy, along with over 20 helicopters and hundreds of boats, were involved in rescue operations across the state. The Coast Guard is working in 28 locations and the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has deployed 39 teams so far. The NDRF has rescued over 4,000 people, while the Navy has rescued 550. 
• As all the districts in the state have been affected by flood, there have been demands to declare it a "national calamity" but the centre has declared the floods a “calamity of severe nature.”
• Heavy rains have caused severe landslides and have left the hilly districts isolated. Between June 1, 2018 and August 17, 2018, Kerala received 2226 mm rain fall against normal of 1620 mm i.e. 41% excess.
• Kerala state government has sought a special package of ₹2,600 crore for relief and rehabilitation. While HM Rajnath Singh has announced immediate relief of ₹100 crores during his aerial survey, PM Modi in his aerial survey has announced additional ₹500 crores. Very meager by any standards.

  

• UAE, where thousands of expatriates from Kerala work, has promised assistance to ₹700 crore, which is rejected by centre citing UPA policy of 2004. The Thailand’s offer of assistance and aid was also rejected. This international disaster relief policy is only limited to foreign governments with conditional aids. Since 2004, India has refused relief aid from Russia, United States and Japan for disasters across Uttarakhand and Kashmir.
• On August 15, Cochin International Airport, India's fourth busiest airport suspended all operations until 26 August, following runway flooding.
• Over 80% of the state has been cut off from power supply. Schools in all 14 districts of Kerala have been closed and some districts have banned tourists, citing safety concerns.
• More than 300 boats are also involved in rescue operations.
• Life and general insurance companies expect deluge of claims of about ₹500 crores, it is less than 3% of the total loss.
• Insurers are also expect big claim for Kochi airport, which has an insurance cover of ₹2,500 crore. (Claims from the 2015 Chennai floods were over ₹5,000 crore, followed by the Mumbai floods of 2005 over ₹4,000 crore and the J&K and Uttarakhand floods, at about ₹2,000 crore each).
• The Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (WGEEP), also known as the Gadgil Committee, headed by Madhav Gadgil, had suggested that 140,000 kilometres of the Western Ghats be classified in three zones and recommended strong restrictions on mining, quarrying, use of land for non forest purposes, construction of high rises etc. The report submitted in 2011 was rejected by the Kerala government and none of its recommendations were adopted. Madhav Gadgil says that the recent floods and landslides in Kerala was a "man-made calamity" and irresponsible environmental policy is to be blamed for. 
• There were allegations that the shutters of 34 dams were opened in one go. The unplanned opening of sluice gates of the several dams caused most submergence. CM Vijayan stated that Idamalayar and Idukki dams were opened after proper inspection and deliberation with officials. Vijayan said “Nobody could’ve foreseen this but still warnings were given and evacuations were done, but torrential rains were beyond any control."
• Kesari, a weekly affiliated with RSS published an editorial on its website criticising the central government appeared to be acting vengefully towards Kerala and was not responding with the political decency shown by Vijayan. Later it was taken off claiming its website was hacked.
• Kerala's flood relief fund drive is getting overwhelming response from all kind hearts across the world and donations have crossed ₹309 Crore on Aug 22, 2018.
• As people left camps, many found mud and slush up to six feet level in front of their houses. All possessions have been lost, and people have to start afresh in obtaining their books, certificates, Aadhaar card, ration card etc. More important is the drinking water, electricity supply, managing contagious diseases etc.

There is no question that Kerala floods was a man-made disaster and is a result of ecological destruction and lack of protocols and weather forecasting algorithms to manage this type of calamities. While its occurrence could not have been avoided, its impact on life & properties could have been contained. Modi government rejecting unconditional cash aid of ₹700 crores from UAE & significant aid from Thailand willingness and granting meager amounts for relief operations has sent a very wrong message to the people of opposition ruled states. Modi has violated most of the UPA policies and why he preferred to follow this particular policy remains unexplained. For Visakhapatnam 2014 Hudhud cyclone damages, Modi announced ₹1000 crores aid but paid only ₹750 crores. During 2017 Bihar floods, against a request for ₹7,600 crore, the Centre had given ₹1700 crore, including the ₹500 crore initial relief given to the state. Keeping aside Centre-State politics, the government should gracefully accept the assistance for Kerala and junk the 2004 policy or precedent.