Is terrorism the only problem India is facing?

India is facing several type of terrorist movements: (1) Paskistan is training and then sending 1000s of terrorists into Kashmir. (2) A large number of north east's locals are waging guerrilla type war against Indian state. (3) Not yet, but soon, India will face a secessionist movement from Bangladeshi immigrants with population crossing 25% of West Bengal to secede from India and may be to join Bangladesh. (4) In 100-120 districts of India, naxalite movement has wrecked the local administration and economy. The Western countries they have no such threats. The reasons are purely administrative. And by making certain changes in administration, the citizens of India can fix those flaws. 

• Modi in his three years of rule has more and more alienated Kashmir people towards terrorism and stone pelting even by students and girls with Hindutva and iron handed policies.
• Today he is making speeches at BRICS summit as if 'terrorism' is the only and biggest problem of India where as several other problems which were either unattended and made worsened by Modi administration.
• Modi must realize that impassioned speeches on terrorism in international fora might get him applaud but doesn't solve either terrorism or other problems on the ground.
• Cross border terrorism funded and aided by other countries is a minuscule component of plethora of all problems we Indians face perennially.
• Worsened economy, extreme poverty, fall in real wages, rising costs of living, loss of livelihoods, unemployment, distressed agriculture, precarious banking sector, population explosion, talent migration, deficiency in services and above all corruption are some of the serious problems India is facing at the moment.
• What BRICS can do to resolve our problems? They can just sign a joint resolution. What is its use? Nothing. We Indians has to work for solving our problems. That is it.

Modi with an insatiable desire for personal glory at any cost will talk about what others have to do but will never talk about his duties and failures. Neither as Gujarat CM nor as PM of India he has done anything meaningful for the benefit of common man on street or peasant in fields. He is only interested in trophy projects and showcase them as a signs of development. With the money he spends on self-glorification each day, a small town or over 100 villages could be modernized.

Demonetization: A bad idea even badly implemented

In the past, the Soviet Union, North Korea and Zimbabwe and other nations also took draconian steps to retire large bills, but most were responding to crises marked by hyperinflation, and were ruled by dictators. India may be the first democracy to attempt this kind of purge in stable economic times.

Prime Minister Modi in his televised address to nation on Nov 8, 2016 announced demonetization of Rs.1000 & Rs.500 currency notes to eliminate (1) black money (2) corruption (3) fake currency and (4) Terrorists operating cross border but failed to give any justification how these complex things will be achieved by a single step with devastating effects on states revenues, agriculture, real estate, retail, informal sector, cine industry and many more effecting 850 million people very badly.

On some simple analysis it would be clear that the stated objectives i.e. four objectives will not be achieved by this step but this action has political undertones with eyes on forthcoming UP elections, then RS elections, followed by President and Vice President elections.

• Black money which is over 20% GDP ($2.25 trillion or Rs.150 lakh crores pa) amounts to Rs.30 lakh crores pa. Out of which is it is in the form of cash by only 6% of cash in circulation (Rs.17 lakh crores) and i.e. Rs.one lakh crores.
• With Rs.2000 and Rs.500 new notes replacing existing Rs.1000 & Rs.500 only black money stocked in cash gets emptied but corruption & black money generation will remain unaffected.
• Fake currency is just 0.028% of cash in circulation (Rs.17 lakh crores) i.e. 476 crores only, a minuscule component. Printing Rs.2,000 notes alone costed Rs.12,000 crores apart from logistics & exchanging expenditure. 
• Terrorist fake money mainly printed by ISI from Pakistan will only get effected and the existing stocks held in Pakistan will be effected. With respite of few months it will come back to normal state. Needless to stay 1,400 km border mostly on plains is impossible to seal. Only active vigilance can control this menace.
• Bulk of the terrorist money is routed through normal banking channels reaches sleeper cells in various cities. The demonetization have no effect on them.

Demonetization might give some instantaneous benefits - cash profits to central government due to unchanged cash (estimated at 20% i.e. Rs.3.5 lakh crores) for reducing its deficit, strengthening banks base and still have surplus cash hand during the year of demonetization. But taking into consideration significant reduction of states revenues, GDP growth reduction and its devastating effects like impact on cash sectors like agriculture, retail, informal sector, real estate, cinema industry and almost all aspects of economy and more importantly enormous difficulties faced by 30 crore people in exchanging notes and disruption of services, the losses far out weigh benefits and it is nothing but insanity to resort to this unscientific political step during stable economic times eyeing only on political benefits, which may or may not accrue. Immediate deflation followed by inflation violent volatility pushing the economy to brink of collapse, is another aspect. This is like jumping into well and committing suicide, in the name of radical measures.

Almost all the bank loans have real estate as mortgage which is over valued by at least 4 times. With real estate values plunging to below 50% mark, the willful loan defaults will increase and banks viability gets threatened.

Scrapping large currency notes may destroy some hidden wealth today, but the black economy will start regenerating itself tomorrow. Only as a nation gets less poor do corruption, black money and the role of cash decline. There is no shortcut. The least corrupt countries tend to be richest countries from Singapore (Per capita $85,382) and Norway (Per capita $68,591). They are small too 5.40 & 5.16 million. In contrast, India is country with 130 crores population, per capita income of $1,718 (Rs. 114,000), 26% illiterate, 29.5% below poverty line of Rs.32/47(Rural/Urban) etc. corruption and black money will exist in some form of other. The prudent way is to keep them under control with strict processes and vigilance.

INDIA - STATISTICS

• GDP of India is $2.25 trillion (Rs. 150 lakh crores) and per capita income of $1,718 (Rs. 114,000).
• India ranks 7th and contributes 2.65% of total world's GDP.
• India shares 17.5 percent of the total world population and 2.4 percent of the world surface area.
• Cash in circulation amounts to 12% of GDP.
• The black economy is about 20% of the formal economy.
• Tax collections amount to 16% of GDP, at least 5 points less.
• Bank deposits amount to 60% of GDP, strong for a poor country.
• India currently ranks 76th in corruption.
• Rs.1000 & Rs.500 notes constitute 86% of Rs.17 lakh crores currency in circulation.
• 20% i.e. Rs. 3.5 lakh crores is unlikely to return to banks for exchange leaving windfall to RBI & Central Government.
• Black money in the form of cash is 6% of cash in circulation i.e. Rs.1.02 lakh cores.
• 90% of transactions takes place in cash. Remaining in credit/debit cards and other modes.
• Fake currency is just 0.028% of cash in circulation of Rs.17 lakh crores is just Rs.476 crores.
• Cash stocked with naxalites extortion is of Rs.5,000 crores.
• Printing new currency alone costs Rs.12,000 crores apart from logistic and exchanging expenses.

TELANGANA SEVERELY EFFECTED

Demonetization of  Rs.500 and  Rs.1,000 currency notes, it seems to have dealt a body blow to nascent Telangana State, pushing its finances deeper into turmoil. The sectors or schemes expected to be severely affected are major and medium irrigation, Mission Kakatiya, Mission Bhagiratha, roads and buildings, housing, social welfare schemes such as Aasara pensions, Shaadi Mubarak and Kalyana Lakshmi, pre and post-matric scholarships and fees reimbursement, partial waiver of farm loans, power subsidy for farm sector, release of funds for panchayat raj and urban local bodies, interest payments and servicing of debts, etc.

The revenue will be just enough to pay salaries, allowances and pensions of government employees. Drought in the previous two years and flash floods in the current year have impacted the state's economy. Demonetization has compounded the woes.

Modinomics is literally bleeding the Telangana State red!
KCR is flabbergasted with all his next election winning strategies blasted and in rubble, apart from he, his family and his party's accumulated black money gone.


NORMALCY RESTORATION IS MORE THAN A YEAR AWAY.

Replacing Rs.500 notes, printing of which started on Nov 10, 2016 is likely to take at least 6 months with all four security printing presses going on 3 shift basis with 80% load factor. That means currency woes will ease by May 2017 only. Economy with acute shortage of cash for 6 months is likely to undergo violent volatility of deflation and inflation and collapse is not ruled out. Coming back to pre Nov 08, 2016 level is at least two years away.


ECONOMISTS IGNORED

Anil Bokil a member of the Pune-based ArthaKranti Sansthan, has propounded the concept of Artha Kranti – an economic solution designed to end the vicious cycle of corruption with specific focus on black money. It seems Prime Minister Modi granted 9 minutes and extended to 2 hours audience and and made up his mind for the proposed the demonetization of high value currency notes.

Making payment systems miserable for transactions leads to bartering or using gold as medium of exchange or a combination.  As long as corruption is a low risk and high profit activity it will flourish. Systemic modifications should result in increasing the risk and minimizing profits apart from ethical education and convincing the people that paying taxes is for their well being. Today, no Indian believes this.

It is so much easy to design variety of mathematical models ignoring people's psychology. Modi himself escalated to throne with the help of corruption money, rogue politicians and greedy businessmen. Today talking scriptures is no use. What is important is to modify system with built in incentives for tax compliance and at the same time increasing the chances of getting caught and penalized to bring corruption to unprofitable levels.


NONE TAKES RESPONSIBILITY

• In a democracy, not consulting economic institutions and legal experts and driving the nation to this type of brink of collapse is nothing but madness and committing suicide. 
• Where is the detailed plan with risks and its mitigation? 
• The procedure has been modified 13 times in 6 days of panicky management. 
• RBI Governor is hiding. 
• PM cries and invokes patriotism and begs for 50 days patience.
  Patriotism is to be invoked during emergency situations only.
  On Nov 8th situation was very much normal.
• PM evades his presence in Parliament. 
• PM announces his life is at threat but doesn't let us know why the matter is not handed over for investigation? 
• FM & others simply says people need to make short term sacrifices for long term benefits. Does they mean to say that in short term poor & peasants have to sacrifice and in long term rich, educated, rogues and loafers will garner benefits for themselves? Why no body is taking responsibility for the situation which landed 90 crores of people standing in streets under hot sun for several hours for nothing.
• Today, after 13 days of demonetization, cash and economic activity situation is totally out of control and fortunately rites haven't erupted. Despite 55 deaths, Government has not announced any mitigation steps except making some speeches of patriotism and patience and long term benefits after 2 years. 
• Poor and peasants are left to the mercy of God.
  Shamelessly they say easing would take 50 more days.

It is worthwhile to recollect how much caution Israel Prime Minister Yitzahak Rabin exercised before approving "Operation Thunderbolt" a daring military rescue operation of hijacked hostages of Air France plane and held about 100 Israeli passengers & French crew at Entebbe airport in Uganda in 1976.

On the contrary, on Nov 8, 2016 our flamboyant "chaiwala" Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced "Demonetization of Rs.500 & Rs.1000 notes" based on some body's presentation about structural changes in economy without any deep study and understanding repercussions plunged the nation into economic chaos and mitigation would require about six months and recovery is at least two years away. It is just like jumping into a well and committing suicide.

Finally, the currency is an instrument issued by RBI and Government has no role in managing that except by an Ordinance followed by an Act of Parliament. Modi announced demonetization by an executive decision which is grossly illegal and its legality will be scrutinized in courts.

Nayeemuddin encountered on Aug 8, 2016

• Nayeemuddin is wanted in more than 100 cases of which more than 20 are murder cases. 
• He was a former member of the People’s War Group and was reportedly involved in 20 murder cases. He surrendered years ago and later formed his own gang.
• Among the many cases is the murder of IPS officer K.S. Vyas in 1993. 
• He was also the main accused in the murder of gangster Patola Goverdhan Reddy in 2011.
• He was linked to the murder of surrendered ex-naxalite K Samabasivudu and Konapuri Ramulu.
• In May 1999, Nayeem's gang killed balladeer Belli Lalitha at Bhongir, chopped her body into 17 pieces and threw them in front of her sympathisers houses to send a stern warning to their enemies.
• He had reportedly helped the police to nab Sohrabuddin Sheikh and his wife who were later killed in an alleged "encounter" by Gujarat Police in 2005.
• Nayeemuddin, son of a driver who worked in the electricity department, was involved in settling land issues, blackmail. There are rumours that he acted as a hitman as well.
• He had escaped police custody as many as 11 times and was adept at staying away from public and the law. Only once was he spotted attending the wedding of a close relative.
• Not surprisingly, the police did not try too hard to nab this elusive gangster as they feared that he would expose them. However, of late, he was getting out of hand and so, the cops, with the help of Greyhounds, the elite group trained to fight against Maoists on any given terrain, took him down. He was at his friend Basha's house in the Millenium Township at Shadnagar in Mahbubnagar, around 50 km from the city of Hyderabad when he was murdered in exchange fire.
• Police officials had evacuated the millennium township, Shadnagr late Sunday night before conducting the operation. Three people—Nayeemuddin, his bodyguard and a woman—was killed in the encounter on Aug 8, 2016. 
• According to police sources, Nayeem had become a headache for ruling party legislators. Bhongir MLA P Sekhar Reddy was even given a bullet proof vehicle due to imminent threat from Nayeem and it came to light that several MLAs, businessmen and a few ministers had complained to the chief minister about the menace. "Nayeem has been threatening several legislators and key associates of some ministers. He even started blackmailing some ministers recently," a senior police officer said. Police provided bullet proof cars to the two MLAs.
• Though, for the record, it was an extortion complaint lodged by an elected representative's husband that sounded the death knell for the 45-year-old gangster from Nalgonda, the real reason appears to be his threats to several TRS leaders, including some ministers, which forced police to go after Nayeem, who had been leading a lavish life at his four-storied residential building at Alkapuri Colony in Narsingi.
• Till 2007, Nayeem moved freely and even attended many functions, but subsequently went underground and continued his illegal activities, mainly extortions from businessmen and politicians.
• Police seized 600 original land documents from one of the houses of gangster Nayeemuddin. The land documents belong to several people from whom Nayeemuddin allegedly grabbed land through threats, intimidation and coercion.
• The 45-year-old Nayeemuddin alias Nayeem, who earned assets worth more than Rs.10,000 crores, illegally, had a final desire to continue his lavish lifestyle after fleeing to Dubai along with his family members. He also requested some police officials to help him to get a passport after plastic surgery to his face. Police have also found business cards of famous plastic surgeons at Nayeem’s residence during the searches held recently.
• Nayeem wanted to get a passport by creating fake ID proofs. For this purpose, he also purchased a house under a fake name. Based on the fake name, Nayeem obtained a sale deed of house, electricity connection, voter ID for getting passport.
• The value of property documents seized from various residences and hide-outs of renegade Mohammed Nayeemuddin running in to thousands of crores and the recovery of a personal diary listing out payments to politicians and policemen.
• The 67-acre land in Kondapur,recovered from his home, alone is valued at about Rs 1,675 crore in open market.
• Rs.3.18 crore in cash, 1.9 kg gold ornaments, four weapons and 138 bullets were recovered from Nayeem’s residence.
• Nayeemuddin's mother Tahera Begum alleged that police had taken her son alongwith three other family members two days ago and now his bullets-ridden body was returned to them.
• Dropping enough hints that the police were watching Mohammed Nayeemuddin alias Nayeem for quite some time, Cyberabad police raided his city dens at Alkapuri Colony in Puppalaguda of Narsingi and Tulja Bhavani Colony in Injapur, Vanasthalipuram, on Monday morning, barely hours after his death in Shadnagar of Mahbubnagar district.
• Police believe that Nayeem had been selling the tribal girls to human trafficking gangs in Mumbai and the Gulf countries for mind-boggling amounts. Cops also suspect that Nayeem might have been sending the minor girls to rich people visiting the city and certain powerful locals. Police gave custody of the nine girls, rescued from the Shadnagar den of Nayeem, to the Child Welfare Committee (CWC), Mahbubnagar.
• Among the four girls found at Nayeem's house at Alkapuri Colony of Puppalguda in the city , a 17-year-old girl told Narsingi police that she was brought to Nayeem's bungalow against her wish. Based on her statement, the Narsingi police have added a kidnapping charge to the case registered at the police station.
• However, preliminary HIV tests threw up a negative result.
• Police on going search on his assets and liabilities comes into lime light that Nayeemuddin was actually going to open a TV channel where he had appointed an CEO and recruitments for the positions were going on.
• One of the important recoveries made by the police during the searches was a purported autobiography penned by Nayeem, in which he talks about his desire to become an MLA and a ruler of Bhongir.

My View:

There is no question that Nayeemuddin is undesirable and harmful element in the society. He is a rogue but unfortunately he was propped by Police and Politicians for their selfish activities and when he expanded his operations encompassing these people, his killing was ordered. Most famous people in the city had slept with him in the past. Their details will never get revealed except some leaks to embarrass some anti establishment people. Unfortunately several good civilian families suffered his atrocities and some even lost their lives.

Knowing fully well about his activities neither politicians nor police never thought fit to take action on him rather used him for fulfilling their needs. Only when Nayeem threatened Etela Rajinder, KTR and some TRS MLAs from Nalgonda district, KCR ordered liquidation of Nayeem. 

Now the allegation made by Nayeem's mother that Nayeem was picked up by police few days ago and after killing his body was kept at Shadnagar with coloring of fake encounter has its own merits. First in an encounter Nayeem an experienced shooter simply died without killing or even hurting any policemen? Second when police started evacuating millennium township previous night how come Nayeem hasn't made any escape attempt but simply got killed next day morning. Third no one saw anything there except heard some shootout from very long distance. Fourth within minutes of Nayeem's encounter Police raided several of his dens and aids homes simultaneously and finally Fifth I don't think Nayeem will stay for several hours with his friend knowing fully well that since several months his life is at risk. Also why he visited his friend was not revealed so far.