Sunday 11 February 2018

Modi at Davos and Budget


WILL THE REAL MODI PLEASE STAND UP?
  • Depending upon the audience Modi takes different avatars.
  • In Davos last month, Modi defended globalization and warned against protectionism but his last week's budget did not suggest pro business statesman, but a protectionist strongman familiar in poor countries.
  • The last budget before 2019 elections squelches any hope that Modi would push long pending market friendly reforms.
  • But the budget confirms his re-election plans i.e. grand pro-poor gestures avoiding any pro-rich plans. 
  • Modicare plan for 50 crore poor people, even though with initial allocation of a pittance of Rs.2,000 crores, devastated Bombay Stock Exchange wiping out investor health by more than Rs.5 lakh crores on a single day.
  • Faced with failure of 'Make in India' to boost employment, government hiked import tariffs to coerce companies to build mobile phones, auto parts, toys etc in India.
  • These protectionist policies, which failed in the past, will only ensure Indians pay high prices for shoddy goods and firms getting more interested in manipulating duties than satisfying customers.
  • FM Arun Jaitley's initial promise for lowering corporate taxes by 2021 appears unrealistic with economy growing at mere 6.5%.
  • In the last 4 years, Modi failed to privatize a single public sector enterprise even though Air India privatisation is in process.
  • ONGC buying out HPCL is only Government exiting business falls short of privatization. 
  • No Indian politician can bolster his 'pro-poor' credentials without also sticking to the rich.
  • According to the law passed in 2003, central government is committed to limit the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by 2009 whereas budget 2018 indicates fiscal deficit at 3.3%.
  • Some analysts argue that budget could have been even worse.
  • It is too soon to say whether government will stick to its budget estimates or open its populism gates even wider as elections approach. 
  • But one thing is certain: Davos version of Modi bears little resemblance to his domestic avatar.

Modi doesn't do what he talks and doesn't talk what he does

Politics without principle, progress without compassion, wealth without work, 
learning without silence, religion without fearlessness and worship without awareness 
will destroy human race ...  Anthony de Mello

For every politician winning election, at any price, is foremost. Anything else secondary. Therefore Modi will do anything including destruction of economy or arousing communal passions or declaring war on Pakistan or anything for winning 2019 general elections. But one thing is certain. He will give nothing really to the poor. He rather believes in fascist Mussolini type spectacular announcements  followed up by relentless media campaign and propaganda. Lacking humility, honesty, integrity and morality, he is dangerous for Indians and its democratic polity.


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