BJP stares at by poll defeats

The results of the by-elections to the 11 assembly seats across 10 states came as a rude shock to the BJP-NDA. While NDA has managed to win only one seat in Uttarakhand only whereas Congress emerged victorious in four seats one each in Karnataka, Meghalaya, Punjab and Maharashtra. JMM won two seats in Jharkhand, SP & RLD won one each in UP, RJD won one in Bihar, TMC won one in West Bengal and CPM won one seat in Kerala.

• At Jokihat (Bihar) RJD defeated JDU with huge margin. The Jokihat bypoll defeat has come as a jolt to JDU CM Nitish Kumar who dumped RJD and INC last year to join hands with BJP to form a new coalition government in Bihar.  
• At Kairana (UP) Tabassum Hasan of RLD won against her BJP rival Mriganka Singh (daughter of deceased BJP MP Hukum Singh) with the support of INC, SP and BSP. This by-poll was pitched as another test of opposition unity against the BJP after SP-BSP combine defeaed BJP in its strongholds Gorakhpur and Phulpur in March 2018. In the Noorpur Assembly seat, which became vacant due to death of a BJP MLA in a road accident, the SP has won. These victories are likely to evolve template for joining of non-BJP parties 
• In Maharashtra's Palus-Kadegaon assembly constituency, by-election was necessitated due to the death of Congress MLA Patangrao Kadam. His son Vishwajeet Kadam, INC candidate,  was elected unopposed. 
• In Maharashtra's Palghar Parliamentary constituency the bypoll was necessitated following the death of sitting BJP MP after a heart attack. The by-election was contested by ruling BJP, its ally Shiv Sena, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) and INC. In the multi cornered contest, BJP emerged victorious and retained the seat. This victory of BJP is the only  consolation to BJP facing several humiliating defeats. In the by-poll in Bhandara-Gondiya parliamentary constituency due to resignation of the BJP MP, INC supported NCP defeated BJP in straight contest. The bypolls to Maharashtra's LS seats are seen as a litmus test for the next general election. 
• In Nagaland, parliamentary bypoll for the lone seat was due to the resignation of Neiphiu Rio to become NDPP CM, ally of BJP. BJP's ally and ruling NDPP's candidate Tokheho Yepthomi won over NPF candidate CApok Jamir.
• In Jharkhand's Gomia & Silli assembly constituencies by-poll was necessitated due to the disqualification following conviction of JMM MLA's YP Mahto in a coal theft case and AK Mahto in a manhandling case. In the triangular contests, JMM retained both the seats defeating BJP & AJSUP.
• In Meghalaya's Ampati by-poll that was necessitated due to former CM Mukul Sangma vacating Ampati seat as he had won two seats in the 2018 Meghalaya Assembly elections, retaining the Songsak seat. Congress had won the seat with margin of over 3,000 votes. With this win, Congress strength in the 60 member Meghalaya assembly is 21 surpassing ruling NPP's 20 seats.
• In Uttarakhand's Tharali assembly constituency by-poll was necessitated due to death of BJP MLA and BJP retained the seat in the by-polls. 
• In Karnataka's Bengaluru-RR Nagar assembly constituency, locked in triangular contest with BJP and JDS, INC emerged victorious. 
• In Punjab's Shahkot assembly constituency, ruling Congress party wrested the seat from Akali Dal, due to the death of its MLA.
• In West Bengal's Maheshtala assembly constituency, ruling TMC retained its seat by securing 104,814 votes against BJP candidate's 41,987 and INC backed Left Front candidate's 30,316 votes. 
• In Kerala's Chengannur assembly constituency, CPM polled 67,303 votes defeating INC 46,347 and BJP's 35,270. 

As Ambedkar feared in 1948, every government with full majority in Parliament will invariably try to undermine constitution, abuse institutions to their selfish and short sighted ends with utter disregard to principles of democracy were proved to be true with Modi's dictatorial attitudes and abuse of authority and destruction of institutions surpassing Indira Gandhi's abuse in 1970's. India has progressed well during the coalition governments between 1992-2014 (22 years), despite some setbacks and slow speed compared to other 49 years, after independence in 1947. It is better to have strong states and regional parties and weak coalition government at centre driven by common minimum program of all states & parties with extra ordinary central powers only to deal with defense, external threats or natural calamities. Centre must be responsible to Parliament on continuous basis in letter and spirit of constitution while upholding principles of democracy.

See complete by poll results

The message is loud & clear. 

United Opposition Parties can and will win over lone BJP.

The BJP has set precedent through Karnataka governor, that largest single party should get first opportunity to form government with liberal grant of 15 days time (for horse trading and/or forging coalitions etc) to pass floor test. Now in these bypolls, INC with 21 seats emerged largest single party surpassing ruling NPP's 20 seats. Will Meghalaya Governor dislodge existing BJP supported NPP coalition government and offer INC to form government by virtue of its being largest single party and pass floor test in 15 days time? Let us see what Modi & BJP will do, who are notorious to twist every event to their advantage with no regard for 'rule of the law'. 

As things are unfolding, Modi, Amit Shah, BJP etc are now clueless of how to arrest the negative vibrations due to their misrule, wild economic reform adventures resulting in economic distress and headstrong arising out of victories in almost all the elections during the past 4 years. They can only be helped by divided opposition parties, which is unlikely because they have a common and most feared enemy in Modi.

How BJP won in Tripura?

In an interview in early January, when asked if the BJP could challenge and replace the CPM in Tripura, the state’s longest serving chief minister, Manik Sarkar, laughed. “Challenge? Replace? You go and ask the people. And you will know the answer.” On March 3, 2018, the people of Tripura answered, bringing to an end 25 years of uninterrupted CPM rule in the state and the 20-year-old reign of Sarkar.

Government employees were unhappy because they were still on fourth pay commission salaries. The BJP promised them a hike, committing to implement the Seventh Pay Commission and that worked overwhelmingly in the BJP’s favour. Young students were unhappy because they felt Tripura was missing out on modernity and jobs or because they felt the CPM cadre were getting all the jobs that were available. The BJP presented itself an alternative which would bring vikas (development).

"Chief Minister Manik Sarkar can’t use use a smart phone. He refused to meet CEOs of top IT companies that we mobilised during the 2015 Tripura conclave just before Agartala became India's third gateway", says Saumen Sarkar, Vice President, Bank of America (IT solutions), who hails from Tripura. Sarkar organised the one-day brainstorming session, that is, the Tripura Conclave, and his efforts to mobilise several top IT majors went to waste when the state government did not play ball.

Sarkar’s biggest asset was his clean image and projection of austerity which didn't help in this elections. For Sarkar it has been a cruel good-bye, for the state has shifted to his most bitter ideological rival.

It would be preposterous to treat the results in the recent assembly elections in the three North Eastern states—Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura—as a barometer for the Lok Sabha elections 2019 in these states. In Nagaland (12 seats) and Meghalaya (2 seats), the BJP can only hope to be an ally of the winners. Before the results were declared on March 3, 2018, it would have been difficult for many to believe that the BJP would win 12 seats in the staunchly Christian Nagaland. 

• In Tripura BJP won 35 seats, BJP's ally IPFT won 8 seats and CPM 16 seats. Congress lost in all seats.
• Nearly 44 candidates in the BJP list in Tripura were ex-Congressmen. 
• The saffron party inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Left Front which had never faced such a situation even when it had lost power in 1988.
• The fact that the BJP has got a majority on its own means it would not concede to its ally IPFT’s demand for a separate state ‘Twipraland’.
• The 2019 result will therefore depend on how secure the uneasy partnership between the BJP and the Indigenous People’s Front Tripura remains. 
• Poor farmers live in fear of the revival of a tribal insurgency and credit CM Manik Sarkar for tackling it in the last decade.
• The BJP’s clean sweep in Agartala also proves that middle-class Bengalis, fed up with the lack of job creation by previous governments, also voted decisively against the Left.
• The BJP has its eye firmly on the 25 Lok Sabha seats from the north-eastern States and that its ambitions are grounded.
• Manik Sarkar was fighting a grossly unequal fight. On one side was the CM standing alone  with no money backing him, and on the other side was the “world’s largest” party the BJP, with plenty of money power and which is ruling the Centre. When CPM is refusing to have an electoral understanding with the Congress, how can it win against the BJP?
• BJP deployed 52 union ministers in Tripura during the campaign. The aim was to boost confidence of the cadre who were up against arch rivals, Left.
• The role of the RSS is important in this victory. Some senior workers were sent to BJP to work in Tripura since two years. Sunil Deodhar was the incharge of BJP in Tripura. The amounts of money spent by BJP is mind boggling too.
• The Congress’ vote share dropped from 36.5% in 2013 to 1.8% now. The BJP’s vote share rose from 1.5% to 43.0%. CPM vote share dwindled from 48% to 42.7% votes. The sheen of the BJP's spectacular win was at the cost of Congress rather than the Left. The BJP managed to swallow up the entire opposition space rather than making any drastic inroads into the traditional Left vote base.

Unless different parties with varied ideologies chalk out a common programme, they can't seriously and effectively challenge the BJP.

BJP snatches Tripura & Nagaland in North East but ...

• Modi and the BJP won outright in Tripura, scraped through with its ally in Nagaland, and is hoping to be kingmaker in a regional alliance in Meghalaya. 
• In Tripura BJP's victory is hands down dislodging 25 year CPM rule.
• In Nagaland BJP, with 12 MLAs now, is all set to form government in allaince with its poll partner NDPP even though it is minority partner in present NPF government (since 2003 with just 1 MLA). But dumping NPF, an NDA partner, and which is also BJP supporter in Manipur might become headache for BJP.
• In Meghalaya, eventhough BJP won only 2 seats it will make all out efforts to ensure that largest party Congress 21/59 is stalled in forming government. If successful, Congress rule in Meghalaya (since 2003) will come to an end .
• It is anti-incumbency vote against Congress and CPM rather than any endorsement of BJP's policies which had been disastrous so far in rest of India.
• Ironically, Modi led BJP/NDA central government has not granted a single rupee for these non-BJP states in the last 4 years.
• BJP's tall promises during the course of election campaign will be forgotten in no time, like it did everywhere so far.
• What is worst is that outgoing chief minister of Tripura, Mr. Manik Sarkar, the poorest chief minister and acclaimed as 'honest person' even by his opponents and leads a spartan life style has drubbed the CPM election loss to BJP is the effect of deploying of massive amounts of money, media and other resources apart from centre squeezing out all the state's grants during the past 4 years.

Recently, in BJP ruled, Rajasthan and MP - BJP lost bye polls with huge margins recently reflecting anger of the people against failed BJP policies particularly w.r.to farmer's distress, wide spread unemployment,  deteriorating economic conditions etc. All seven NE states has a combined population of just over 4 crores and doesn't really reflect national mood of the voter. If BJP goes into celebration mode, they will be heading for disaster in forth coming state assembly polls and 2019 general elections.

Manik Sarkar - Cleanest & Honest Chief Minister

Manik Sarkar (age 67) is an Indian politician who has been Chief Minister of Tripura since March 1998. He is a Politburo Member of Communist Party of India (Marxist). In assembly elections held in 2013, he became the chief minister for the fourth consecutive time.

At the age of 49, he became a member of the politburo of the CPI (M), which is the principal policy-making and executive committee in a Communist party. In the same year, he became the Chief Minister of the state of Tripura. Since then, he has been elected to the same position for four consecutive times. He is one of the very few chief Ministers in India who are in the office for such a long period of time.

Manik Sarkar donates his CM salary and allowances to his party, which pays him ₹5,000 (approximately $76) as subsistence allowances. His affidavit for the 2013 Tripura Assembly election revealed that he may well be the one with lowest monetary resources of all Chief Ministers of India.

Sarkar and his wife live a very simple life. He is the only Chief Minister in India who has no house or a car on his name. Even his wife takes a rickshaw while traveling, with no personal security guards. Some official sources list his monthly salary as the lowest salary among all the Chief Ministers in India. Sarkar has often been called the "Cleanest and the Honest Chief Minister in the country". He has enjoyed a corruption-free image even among his critics.