BJP stares at by poll defeats

The results of the by-elections to the 11 assembly seats across 10 states came as a rude shock to the BJP-NDA. While NDA has managed to win only one seat in Uttarakhand only whereas Congress emerged victorious in four seats one each in Karnataka, Meghalaya, Punjab and Maharashtra. JMM won two seats in Jharkhand, SP & RLD won one each in UP, RJD won one in Bihar, TMC won one in West Bengal and CPM won one seat in Kerala.

• At Jokihat (Bihar) RJD defeated JDU with huge margin. The Jokihat bypoll defeat has come as a jolt to JDU CM Nitish Kumar who dumped RJD and INC last year to join hands with BJP to form a new coalition government in Bihar.  
• At Kairana (UP) Tabassum Hasan of RLD won against her BJP rival Mriganka Singh (daughter of deceased BJP MP Hukum Singh) with the support of INC, SP and BSP. This by-poll was pitched as another test of opposition unity against the BJP after SP-BSP combine defeaed BJP in its strongholds Gorakhpur and Phulpur in March 2018. In the Noorpur Assembly seat, which became vacant due to death of a BJP MLA in a road accident, the SP has won. These victories are likely to evolve template for joining of non-BJP parties 
• In Maharashtra's Palus-Kadegaon assembly constituency, by-election was necessitated due to the death of Congress MLA Patangrao Kadam. His son Vishwajeet Kadam, INC candidate,  was elected unopposed. 
• In Maharashtra's Palghar Parliamentary constituency the bypoll was necessitated following the death of sitting BJP MP after a heart attack. The by-election was contested by ruling BJP, its ally Shiv Sena, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) and INC. In the multi cornered contest, BJP emerged victorious and retained the seat. This victory of BJP is the only  consolation to BJP facing several humiliating defeats. In the by-poll in Bhandara-Gondiya parliamentary constituency due to resignation of the BJP MP, INC supported NCP defeated BJP in straight contest. The bypolls to Maharashtra's LS seats are seen as a litmus test for the next general election. 
• In Nagaland, parliamentary bypoll for the lone seat was due to the resignation of Neiphiu Rio to become NDPP CM, ally of BJP. BJP's ally and ruling NDPP's candidate Tokheho Yepthomi won over NPF candidate CApok Jamir.
• In Jharkhand's Gomia & Silli assembly constituencies by-poll was necessitated due to the disqualification following conviction of JMM MLA's YP Mahto in a coal theft case and AK Mahto in a manhandling case. In the triangular contests, JMM retained both the seats defeating BJP & AJSUP.
• In Meghalaya's Ampati by-poll that was necessitated due to former CM Mukul Sangma vacating Ampati seat as he had won two seats in the 2018 Meghalaya Assembly elections, retaining the Songsak seat. Congress had won the seat with margin of over 3,000 votes. With this win, Congress strength in the 60 member Meghalaya assembly is 21 surpassing ruling NPP's 20 seats.
• In Uttarakhand's Tharali assembly constituency by-poll was necessitated due to death of BJP MLA and BJP retained the seat in the by-polls. 
• In Karnataka's Bengaluru-RR Nagar assembly constituency, locked in triangular contest with BJP and JDS, INC emerged victorious. 
• In Punjab's Shahkot assembly constituency, ruling Congress party wrested the seat from Akali Dal, due to the death of its MLA.
• In West Bengal's Maheshtala assembly constituency, ruling TMC retained its seat by securing 104,814 votes against BJP candidate's 41,987 and INC backed Left Front candidate's 30,316 votes. 
• In Kerala's Chengannur assembly constituency, CPM polled 67,303 votes defeating INC 46,347 and BJP's 35,270. 

As Ambedkar feared in 1948, every government with full majority in Parliament will invariably try to undermine constitution, abuse institutions to their selfish and short sighted ends with utter disregard to principles of democracy were proved to be true with Modi's dictatorial attitudes and abuse of authority and destruction of institutions surpassing Indira Gandhi's abuse in 1970's. India has progressed well during the coalition governments between 1992-2014 (22 years), despite some setbacks and slow speed compared to other 49 years, after independence in 1947. It is better to have strong states and regional parties and weak coalition government at centre driven by common minimum program of all states & parties with extra ordinary central powers only to deal with defense, external threats or natural calamities. Centre must be responsible to Parliament on continuous basis in letter and spirit of constitution while upholding principles of democracy.

See complete by poll results

The message is loud & clear. 

United Opposition Parties can and will win over lone BJP.

The BJP has set precedent through Karnataka governor, that largest single party should get first opportunity to form government with liberal grant of 15 days time (for horse trading and/or forging coalitions etc) to pass floor test. Now in these bypolls, INC with 21 seats emerged largest single party surpassing ruling NPP's 20 seats. Will Meghalaya Governor dislodge existing BJP supported NPP coalition government and offer INC to form government by virtue of its being largest single party and pass floor test in 15 days time? Let us see what Modi & BJP will do, who are notorious to twist every event to their advantage with no regard for 'rule of the law'. 

As things are unfolding, Modi, Amit Shah, BJP etc are now clueless of how to arrest the negative vibrations due to their misrule, wild economic reform adventures resulting in economic distress and headstrong arising out of victories in almost all the elections during the past 4 years. They can only be helped by divided opposition parties, which is unlikely because they have a common and most feared enemy in Modi.

Modi and BJP fading away in Hindi heartland

In 2014-15 BJP president Amit Shah's proclamed an uninterrupted BJP rule at the Centre for the next 50 years. Even those who factored in unforeseen political challenges had little doubt that the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah would have an easy ride at least for 15 years. But such conviction is a thing of the past. These observations were made by a senior BJP leader from UP within days after the BJP suffered shock defeats in the byelections in Gorakhpur and Phulpur. UP CM Yogi Adityanath, the BJP's latest mascot candidly admitted that they had been done in by overconfidence. 

• As in March 2018, BJP is in power 15 states and shares power in 5 other states. While 3 states are in Congress fold, 6 states are ruled by regional parties.
• Despite its massive presence in the country, today BJP is trembling with negative vibrations across the nation and elections for 5 states are slated for 2018 and general election for 2019 and Modi is desperately searching for a magic wand, that will work.
• In a span of 10 days, BJP suffered stinging defeats in UP’s Gorakhpur and Phulpur, constituencies held earlier by CM Adityanath and DyCM KP Maurya. While Tripura was wrested by BJP ending the 25-year-old Left Front regime, BJP surrendered their 27-year-long  domination of Gorakhpur to a loose alliance of the SP and BSP. In Bihar, revived alliance with the JDU did not bring any benefit as RJD retained the Araria LS constituency and the Jehanabad Assembly seat. Indeed, you never can take the Indian electorate for granted.
• In the RS polls, BJP’s strength in UP Assembly assured its victory in 8 seats, but it managed to win another seat by engineering cross-voting from the opposition to ensure the BSP candidate’s defeat. Managing a victory in a RS election through backroom manoeuvres is in no way a measure of public opinion.
• The reports from the Hindi heartland States of UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, MP and many more affirm that the popular mood is definitely turning against the BJP. The party is witnessing a steady erosion of support on account of agrarian crisis, the economic hardships on account of demonetisation and GST reforms, and the general failure to live up to the high expectations generated through the rhetoric of leaders like Modi. There is little doubt that this is bound to reflect in reduction of seats for the BJP in the 2019 general election.
• The fact of the matter is voters in the Hindi heartland States are fed up with BJP and they need to face it squarely without taking recourse to convoluted logic and lame excuses. The vote share of the BJP fell by 1,04,495 in Gorakhpur from the 2014 count and by a massive 2,20,102  in Phulpur.
• It is more daunting for the BJP since a mere arithmetical aggregation of SP and BSP votes of the 2017 Assembly elections shows the two parties ahead in as many as 50 of the 80 LS seats in the State. If this arithmetic is getting supplemented by an emotive appeal, a potential SP-BSP alliance will make rapid strides in UP’s electoral politics. Projections on the basis of a cumulative vote share assessment of the 2017 UP Assembly election results are that the SP-BSP combine has a lead of 1.45 lakh votes across 57 LS seats. The BJP and its allies lead in 23 seats by 58,000 votes, a sharp fall from the 71 seats won by BJP and 2 seats won by its allies in 2014.
• Akhilesh Yadav, SP president and former UP CM is of the view that the voter dissatisfaction with the BJP regimes at the Centre and in the States is fast acquiring big proportions and is bound to spread nationally in due course. He opines that Gorakhpur and Phulpur were merely precursors. 
• Akhilesh Yadav said that efforts to portray the BJP defeats in Gorakhpur and Phulpur as the mere fallout of electoral arithmetic is a mechanistic assessment that fails to take into consideration the larger social, economic and political context marked by misrule, the human misery caused by that misrule.
• The TDP  decision to leave the NDA and move a no-confidence motion against the Modi government is another indication of BJP mishandling its NDA allies.
• The manner in which the BJP’s sought to counter the no-confidence motion underscore a sense of panic. The party seems to have unleashed the AIADMK, which has become completely servile to Modi and Shah after  Jayalalithaa’s death, and the TRS to continuously disrupt Parliament on some pretext or the other so that the no-confidence motion cannot be taken up. It seems that like the UPA-II, the Modi Ministry is desperately seeking to run away from parliamentary inspection. The debates on the no-confidence motion would have been telecast live and this too could have added to the government’s discomfiture. But such desperate filibustering will ultimately aggravate voter disenchantment with the Modi government.
• The opposition parties have reinforced attempts to rally anti-BJP forces. While the Congress laid out its plan of action for non-BJP coalition in a special plenary and others are seeking to stitch an alliance of regional parties and these are based on the premise that the BJP is no longer in the position of strength that it enjoyed in 2014. 
• In the RS election in UP, the SP. and the Congress had announced support to the BSP candidate but lost due to cross voting in favour of 9th BJP candidate. The BJP leadership saw in the situation a chance to make mischief between the allies to split them. However, in the press conference that Mayawati said that BSP saw through the BJP’s dirty tricks and vile political games and horse-trading and made it clear that the alliance would continue. 
• BJP and RSS knew that Yogi Adityanath’s stock had taken a big beating. Projected last year as a potential successor to Modi, he has been exposed as an inefficient and ordinary “non vote catcher” leader who cannot even retain his own pocket borough that he had literally lorded over for decades. That does strengthen the Modi-Shah duo as the only vote catcher in the BJP, but the Hindi heartland States account for approximately 200 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha.
• The BJP is known traditionally to be an urban-centric party. The low turnout in the urban areas in the Gorakhpur at 33% and Phulpur 31% was disconcerting in the context of electoral challenges. This showed that the rural antipathy towards the party continued, its urban core base was resolutely refusing to rally behind it. It remains to be seen how Modi and Shah will tackle this. Certainly empty rhetoric cannot contain these jolts and there is widespread agreement with this observation among the Sangh Parivar rank and file.

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Having not ruled the country during first two years and misruled the country with disruptive reforms without preparation and leaving all vulnerable people to their fate without any support, time is now for Modi and BJP to pay the price. No matter what he does, his graph will continue to plunge, an RSS survey has warned Modi. The only way to limit damages is to go for flash polls. That is almost certainty if Karnataka result stuns BJP, which is likely as per opinion polls. Arrogance and dictatorial attitudes will never pay. Consequences are inescapable. Modi's wrong behavior and non-performance and corruption & scams etc has no bounds, much worse than Congress and UPA. Modi must realize that empty rhetoric will not work all the times.

Agrarian crisis: A wake up call

• The Modi government needs to move beyond empty rhetoric and gimmicks to clear policy formulation and implementation to solve the agrarian crisis, which has been brewing for years now. 
• The timing of the current, almost nationwide, farmer agitation that is strikingly unique. It has erupted in a year when the farm sector seems to have achieved all the cherished objectives: an above 5% growth rate and record production not only in food grains but also in fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The Union government has claimed successful implementation of various schemes for the agriculture sector.
• The fact of the matter is that beyond all these seemingly positive factors, there is grave economic distress in the rural areas in general and in the farming community in particular. It is a crisis that marked the advent of economic policies of liberalisation in the farm sector and has persisted right from the early 1990s.
• The two principal demands of the agitating farmers, loan waiver and implementation of the Swaminathan Commission recommendations, which provide for a 50% profit margin on input cost—not only summarise this grave economic distress in rural areas but also point to the probable solution of the problems.
• The BJP’s election manifesto in 2014 said that once in power, the party “will take steps to enhance the profitability in agriculture, by ensuring a minimum of 50% profits over the cost of production, cheaper agriculture inputs and credit; introducing latest technologies for farming and high yielding seeds and linking MGNREGA to agriculture”. 
• The loan waiver concept was addressed by Modi himself at various meetings during the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh. Evidently, both the issues that form the root cause of the current farmer agitation were in the radar of the BJP for a considerable period of time.
• The schemes devised on the basis of one’s understanding need to generate a sense of benefit in the targeted sections of the population. Various schemes announced, sought to be implemented, and celebrated as great success by the Modi government as part of its third anniversary celebrations will highlight this mismatch. 

1. Crop insurance: At its core, it has nothing to do with increasing farmers’ income but is just a risk coverage for which farmers are paying a premium. The real beneficiary is the government since the risk of paying compensation has now shifted from the treasury to the insurance companies. The loser is the farmer since he or she has to first cough up a premium in order to be eligible for insurance. Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): crop insurance is compulsory for farmers availing themselves of loans and voluntary for non-loanee farmers. A farmer has to pay 2-5% of the premium fixed by the insurance company. The remaining amount of the premium is subsidised by both the Centre and the States under a 50:50 plan. There is no cap on the maximum amount that insurance companies can quote as premium. If any State is unable to mobilise resources as dictated by the insurance companies, the scheme will come to a standstill.
2. Statistics jugglery: The government has also been trying to mislead people with statistics jugglery. It claimed that the total number of farmers covered under the scheme for the kharif season alone between 2014 and 2017 was 56.52% more than the number covered between 2011 and 2014. Whereas the scheme was implemented only from 2016. The efficacy of the much-advertised insurance scheme can be inferred from the reply in the Rajya Sabha on April 7 that out of payable claims of Rs.3,47,413 lakh, only Rs.69,802 lakh had been paid under the PMFBY and under the Restructured Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (RWBCIS), out of payable claims of Rs.79,599 lakh, only Rs.1,570 lakh had been paid since kharif 2016.
3. National Agricultural Market (eNAM): The government claims that more than 400 mandis (markets) have been linked to the portal. The target is to connect 585 mandis with eNAM by March 31, 2018. The objective is to allow farmers the freedom to sell their crops. The government claims that as of May 15, 83.57 lakh tonnes of agricultural produce worth Rs.19,802.98 crore had been transacted through eNAM. While the figures look impressive the reality is that farmers are yet to be allowed to sell at a different mandi, not even in a neighbouring one, through eNAM. The reason is resistance by commission agents as well as lack of proper infrastructure. Who will guarantee that the produce sold by farmers adhere to basic standards if the trader who wants to buy is located 100 kilometres away? What is happening now is that the data of business transacted in a mandi are just being uploaded on the eNAM site, showing it as having taken place through the portal. The government mooted an idea of not allowing sale of produce priced below the minimum support price (MSP) in eNAM was dropped in the wake of opposition which cited it as interference in free market economy. Like MP Govt, Centre could have announced trading below MSP a crime, but administrative backup was missing.
4. Soil Health Card: This has found prominence in terms of the Modi government’s agriculture initiatives. This scheme, launched in a hurry is akin to employing quacks in every village to attend to the medical and health needs of the people without any arrangement for medicines. This long-term project will start producing results after 20 years if implemented seriously and effectively. The government did not have the equipment to test soil conditions on such a huge scale. Nor were trained technicians available. Moreover, farmers do not know what to do after getting the soil health card. Where do they buy the “medicines” to treat the soil? Who will spend the money? Is there a guarantee from the government that their produce will increase? Unless and until these basic questions are addressed, the soil health card scheme will be an utter failure. Gujarat had apparently achieved 100% coverage under the scheme when Modi was the Chief Minister, but did it make any positive impact on the farm economy? The scheme is hardly a novel idea but a continuation of the “apni mitti pahchano” (identify your soil) scheme set in motion by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.
5. Neem-coated urea: Another much-advertised scheme is the use of neem-coated urea, which is, again, a continuation of a UPA scheme, and it has nothing to do with productivity at the farm level. It only checks the industrial use and smuggling of urea. 
6. Price stabilisation fund: The government initiated the Price stabilisation fund in the 2014-15. Budget to protect farmers from market volatility, but the allocation of just Rs.500 crore showed a lack of seriousness and understanding of the problem.

• The contradictions in agriculture policy formulation are stark and visible. On the one hand, the government has been talking about “doubling farm income by 2022” through integrated farming. It has also identified allied activities to be covered under integrated farming, which include poultry, animal husbandry, fisheries and beekeeping, etc. India has been the world’s largest exporter of buffalo meat over the past four years. The ban on slaughterhouses in Uttar Pradesh, the largest exporter-State and then the ban on selling cattle at cattle markets for the purpose of slaughter, and cow vigilantes have made inter-State movement of cows and buffalos literally impossible. On the same basis, the government also discontinued the successful “Kamdhenu scheme” of the previous Samajwadi Party government that had made Uttar Pradesh the top milk producer in the country. Selling unproductive cattle for slaughter is an integral part of dairy farming, which makes it commercially viable. These stringent rules will render dairy farming uneconomical and unsustainable. How can a farmer survive if he or she is asked to rear unproductive cattle and is not allowed to sell them? The impact is visible now in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh where unproductive animals are destroying crops, and the farmer feels helpless. Poultry farming and dairy have not been considered agricultural activities and have been brought under the ambit of the Goods and Services Tax.
• The export-import policies in agriculture trade are working against the interest of farmers. The imposition of a minimum export price to protect the interests of consumers has resulted in a skewed policy paralysis against farmers’ interests. Thankfully, there has been no export ban on any agricultural commodity during the three years of the NDA government. But, at the same time, there have been no concerted efforts to boost it further and this has resulted in negative growth in export of farm commodities.
• The problems in the farm sector are complex, but the solution is simple, and that is bringing about parity of agriculture produce with industrial products and services, the farmer with the economic worker, and farming with other enterprises. 
• The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) had rightly identified the problem as follows: “Price shocks have become frequent. The pressure to meet family expenditure, to meet the necessities of modern life, has been forcing farmers to embrace risky ventures by using borrowed funds. Risks unleashed by market forces and price crash in many cases are leading to agrarian distress and sad situations like farmers’ suicides.” The panel had presented recommendations as well, and like other reports on agriculture, failed to attract the current government’s attention.
• The current nationwide farmers’ agitation after a year of record production and 5.2% growth is a wake-up call for politicians and policymakers to initiate a structural reform so as to provide a “minimum income guarantee” to farmers, like the MGNREGA does with labourers. 
• A loan waiver is only be a temporary measure but necessary to correct past imbalances. But the future needs remunerative and deficiency pricing. Modi government needs to move in on the agricultural sector, as in other areas of governance, beyond empty rhetoric towards clear policy formulations and implementation. Cosmetic rechristening and restructuring of programmes of old governments will not help in this suggested policy course correction. The current situation and its political ramifications also ring a warning bell for the BJP as far as the 2019 general elections are concerned. Among landowners and farmers in agricultural areas, more than 50% had voted for the NDA in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. 

A country can't prosper at the expense its farmers.

My View:

Modi never has any intention of walking the talking. His policy is to promise and forget. He thinks fudging of data, high decibel publicity and rhetoric will work always. Sadly "One can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but one can not fool all of the people all of the times". His doing nothing during three years for farmers is not an accident but intentional. He has no idea about agriculture, problems and aspirations. With opposition in total disarray and ineffective it is only farmers who can bring high flying Modi on to ground.