Turkey's woes today

Turkey's currency, the lira, has hit record lows, creating a headache for the country's president and pushing up prices on everyday items. Although the exact cause is, of course, hard to say, tourism bookings to Turkey have gone up in recent months. Holiday company Thomas Cook has seen a 63% rise in bookings to Turkey.

• On Fri Aug 10, 2018, the US dollar would buy almost six Turkish lira; at the end of January, it would have got you less than four. The Turkey's currency Lira, has lost more than 34% of its value against the US dollar.
• The stock market has also fallen 17%.
• Government borrowing costs have risen to 18% a year.
• Inflation in Turkey has hit 15%.

The causes are:

• Investors are worried that Turkish companies that borrowed heavily to profit from a construction boom will struggle to repay loans in dollars and euros, as the weakened lira means there is now more to pay back.
• Turkey's worsening relations with Trump administration with sanctions due to the detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson, who has has been held for nearly two years over alleged links to political groups.
• On Fri Aug 10, 2018, the US dealt Turkey and the lira a further blow when Trump said he had approved the doubling of tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium.

These problems were compounded by a political set-up which is unconducive to proper economic management. Much of the recent concern has been fueled by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's economic policy. Flustered by the current situation, President Erdogan urged supporters not to worry, saying that while overseas investors had dollars, Turks had Allah. Meanwhile, UK Foreign Office recommends against all but essential travel to a number of regions and says not to travel within 10 km of the Syrian border at all, due to the ongoing Syrian war. The US rates Turkey at level three, urging people to reconsider travel to the region.

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Although far better, India's direction is Turkish way. Today INR stands eroded by 16% against USD in the past 2 years. In 2018, INR lost 8% value against USD. Our FE reserves is looking southwards. Trade deficit increasing due to reckless import of non-essential items from China. Exports stagnating, inflation above 5% are other negatives. Flight of dollars is due to Fed Reserve increasing interest rates indicates our vulnerability. Increasing oil prices suggest that INR will remain under pressure for many more quarters. Unfortunately, our government doesn't have any plans to resurrect while preferring to be in observing mode perennially. 

Autocrats triumph in democratic countries

• Democratically elected leaders who triumph in elections often move towards autocracy by undermining checks and balances and consolidating power. In India, Indira Gandhi and Modi are examples of such phenomenon.
• The most common way for a democracy to collapse is through the actions of elected incumbent, not a coup or revolution.
• Hugo Chavez, 4 terms elected president of Venezula, dismantled institutions and expanded his authority. Vladimar Putin of Russia has concentrated so much power in his own hands he is known as 'elected dictator'. Erdogan of Turkey following the same path.
• Once in power, unscrupulous leaders manipulate political environment more likely that they are sure of winning future elections. Thus they gain stamp of democratic legitimacy even for actions that ultimately undermines democratic norms.
• Manipulation and winning elections has become a kind of exploit in the rules of political legitimacy to hack the system. People around the world have become attached to the idea that elections have become defacto requirement for government legitimacy. Winning the election through popular vote is treated as conveying moral and procedural validity.
• Election winner claims popular support for changes that undermines democratic institutions and stripping away checks and balances. Opponents who criticize runs the risk of looking anti-democratic trying to thwart the will of people expressed at ballot box.
• In some autocracies elections are 'farce' and in some they were 'genuine' contests though they may not be fair. Techniques like curtailing press freedom, limiting opposition's ability to campaign, and spreading misinformation enable incumbent to manipulate election outcomes without resorting to traceable techniques like ballot-stuffing.
• Chavez systematically revoked broadcast licenses while Putin cracked down on dissent and shutting off political opportunities for opposition. This kind of manipulation is not only powerful, it is also hard for opposition to prevent. This way, autocratic leader can avoid risk of losing votes while gaining legitimacy from its result.
• Often leaders who subvert democracy and whose electoral success is partly attributable to tilted playing field remain genuinely popular with much of the public. This contradicts democratic belief that elections are an effective check on tyranny. 
• What voting taketh away, voting can giveth right back. A habit of elections may also make it more difficult authoritarians consolidate their autocracies. This is strength and weakness of democracy.
• Leaders who benefit from polarisation and manipulation of political contests in their favor will eventually lose popularity. Then a tradition of regular tradition makes it easier for country to return back to democracy. One election is not a cure-all.

Twenty or even ten years ago, the possibility of a global democratic recession seemed impossible as states grew wealthier, they would develop larger middle classes who would push for ever-greater social, political, and economic freedoms. Human progress would spread democracy everywhere. The middle class rather than work to defeat these populist & authoritarian leaders at the ballot box or strengthen the institutions that could hold them in check, they have ended up supporting undemocratic measures.

In a democracy government should be afraid of their people.

Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state.

Democracy consists of choosing your dictators.

When threatened, the first thing a democracy gives up is democracy.

The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy.

To oppress the opposition is to assault the very foundation of democracy.

Almost all the above statements confirms Modi as an autocrat practicing authoritarianism. His relentless high decibel propaganda stating failures as successes is height of all the things. Democracy is not a simple thing: It’s a complex system of strong institutions and legal checks. Very few nations have mastered it fully. And sustaining it is a never-ending effort. 

CBI raids NDTV

CBI raids the residences and offices of Radhika and Prannoy Roy on June 5, 2017,
whose channel, NDTV, has been openly critical of PM Narendra Modi.

• According to CBI, it was responding to a complaint regarding an alleged loss to ICICI Bank on the repayment of an old loan to the Roys. Both ICICI Bank and NDTV are private entities.
• NDTV swiftly published a letter from ICICI Bank, dated from 2009, which stated that the loan had been repaid in full.
• The relevant complaint did not come from the allegedly wronged party.
• NDTV has been an critic of PM Modi’s politics and his brand of Hindu nationalism.
• The CBI raid is an act of intimidation against NDTV, as well as against all media outlets that remain critical of Hindu-nationalist politics and the government’s policies.
• The takeover of NTV has, 17 years since that throttled all independent media in Putin’s Russia. CNN, described it as: Pass laws that constrict the space available for independent media. Set legal traps, citing anti-terrorist legislation. Send the tax police to carry out endless inspections of a recalcitrant broadcaster or their business associates, denying that political views have anything to do with the investigation. Don’t kill them, just maim them. Try to squeeze them into irrelevance.
• Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, has followed a similar recipe. Over his 14 years in power, numerous independent media organisations have either been shut down or coercively passed into pro-Erdogan hands. In one case, in 2007, government authorities seized the independent daily Sabah, citing an omission in the documents for a previous change of ownership several years ago. The paper was then sold to a consortium led by Erdogan’s son-in-law. Today, it is an unofficial government mouthpiece. Erdogan's crackdown on independent media, has weakened them to the point where now he has an alarmingly free hand.
• Modi has cosied up to both Putin and Erdogan. The similarities are the outspoken nationalism, the centralisation of power within their respective parties and governments, the abhorrence of independent scrutiny. Where India departs from present-day Russia and Turkey is in the relative strength and independence of its democratic institutions, which serve to check the government’s autocratic impulses. 
• India risks following the Turkish trajectory where media is being controlled by owners ready to bend to government pressure, whether by inclination or compulsion. 
• Proprietors of many major media organisations have significant interests in other sectors like real estate or resource extraction, where official support is essential. The government’s leverage is also bolstered by its share of media advertising revenues from the public sector. BJP-led governments intimidating media outlets by the tax authorities or security and investigative agencies have become prominent.
• In 2001, under the government of AB Vajpayee, tax officials targeted financial backers of Tehelka that  published videos of officials and politicians taking bribes from reporters posing as salesmen of defence equipment. At least two investors and a journalist were jailed. 
• The tax officials also went after Outlook, following a report from the magazine about the undue influence of powerful private companies on the Vajpayee administration’s economic policies. More raids occurred over the next six months. 
• So far, India has been resilient in protecting press freedom because whenever governments have attempted to exert control, there has been a strong collective response from the media, civil society, judiciary and political opposition. 
• But the devolution of press freedom in Russia and Turkey, where strong leaders have rallied support in the name of nationalism, should warn us of early signs to intimidate and eventually control media. The present targeting of NDTV is no less of a provocation and deserves a strong reaction.

My View:

Even if the ICICI bank suffered a loss while closing NDTV loan account settlement in 2009, they never wrote a letter to CBI. But CBI, the country’s premier investigative agency attempting to probe a credit issue between two private parties, now with the heavy-handedness is height of misuse of agencies by BJP. In the past, every government used tax officials and investigative agencies to tame down opposition and opposing media, but present day BJP's scale of misuse is unprecedented. Media houses are experiencing 'Emergency' like atmosphere. And our democracy is in peril!