Leaders are most effective in their first term of power

Every hero becomes a bore at last. RW Emerson observes that most politicians tend to overstay in their particularly in the developing world with young democracies, where several incumbent leaders change the constitution at the peak of their popularity to extend their stay in office. In the long established democracies also the populace generally tires of rulers who hang around for more than one term. Any goodwill generated in the first few years of their reign almost always dissipates rapidly if they remain in power for longer. This axiom is even more relevant in the current economic environment where growth and inflation dynamics are taking a turn for the worse across the globe. 

• Russia is a prime example of such trends. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's ratings were at a record high 70% while Russia's economic growth having averaged 7% since he took over office in 2000. Putin's ratings are now at 50%, lowest in the decade. Russia's economy has been struggling to grow at half the pre-2008 crisis levels. Had Putin rode away into the sunset in 2008 after completing both his four-year terms as President, he could have gone down in history as the most successful Russian leader since Nikita Khrushchev. Putin had frittered away goodwill by staying on for too long, with Russian economy struggling to regain its pre-2008 growth momentum. 
• Leaders who seek to extend their hold on power don't realise that such a path is not just bad for the country, as their focus invariably shifts to protecting deeply vested interests rather than offering any new vision for development, but also for their own place in history. By the time the extended terms end, voters often are fed up with the ruler and their past good deeds are largely forgotten.
• Most eminent leaders in history from Margaret Thatcher in the UK to Francois Mitterrand in France eventually lost their way. Both Thatcher and Mitterrand witnessed a major decline in their popularity after a decade in power. 
• Winston Churchill too was knocked out as the head of government in 1945 despite his widely hailed leadership during World War II as voters got tired of the Conservative Party's many years of rule and began to favour the Labour Party's more welfare-oriented policies following a long period of economic hardship. 
• In genuine democracies, popular opinion will do the job of voting out leaders who have overstayed. In countries where the political systems are not yet well established, rulers will figure out ways to keep extending their stint in office only to see diminishing returns during the second decade of their rule. 

The lesson from history is that leaders are most effective in their first term of power and the goodwill they have erodes very quickly if they stay on in office up to a decade or longer. There are exceptions to the rule, such as Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore who after 30 years of rule was still widely admired. Those are very rare cases; the odds generally are that after a few years in power, most leaders become a bore. 

In Indian scenario Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Manmohan Singh were far less effective in their later terms making people feel bored. Lethargy creeps in, leader gets isolated in ivory towers, coterie wields power recklessly with selfish motives, corruption becomes order of the day, friends wont tell nor the leader likes to listen truths, and the nation and its economy takes severe beating. Therefore for democracy and nation to survive and retain its vibrancy, independent institutions must be strong, headed by men of integrity & values and must never be allowed to subverted. Fourth estate and its freedom must be protected to play vital watch-dog role.

Rs.50,000 crores coal import scam

During the last four years, the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, or DRI, has unearthed over-invoicing of imports of coal and electricity generation equipment against at least 40 of India’s biggest energy companies. The total scandal amount is Rs 50,000 crore (~$8bn). Of this Rs 30,000 crore is on account of the over-invoicing of coal imported mainly from Indonesia. The remaining Rs. 20,000 crore is due to over-invoicing of power machinery imported mostly from China. The higher costs were passed on to consumers, who paid more for electricity.

• NTPC and various state electricity boards are involved in the over-invoicing scam, along with private companies of Adani, Essar, Anil Ambani etc. 
• As claims of corruption and favouritism emerge involving corporate entities headed by politically influential tycoons and powerful technocrats, the finance ministry's pursuing these cases are being stymied and the prosecution process thwarted.
• The DRI investigation alleged that 40 major companies, including Knowledge Infrastructure Systems Private Limited (KISPL), had inflated the value of coal imported from Indonesia for power generation, resulting in illicit benefits of Rs 30,000 crore. This resulted in consumers having to pay more for electricity. 
• The DRI investigation further claimed that the illegal gains were then laundered through shell companies in tax havens outside India.
• The adjudicating authority of the DRI, has cleared two companies, both part of the Adani Group, of charges of over-invoicing imported power-plant equipment worth Rs 3,974 crore. The investigating agency, DRI, filed an appeal in which it argued that the order suffers from “total non-application of mind or recklessness.”   DRI further stated that the order was “erroneous, illegal and improper not only in law but also on facts.” 
• The adjudicating authority of the DRI has accepted allegations against KISPL regarding over-valuation of coal imports from Indonesia and imposed a penalty of Rs 17.50 crore on the company. It also imposed a penalty of Rs 1.25 crore on Rahul Bhandare, the managing director of the company, and another of Rs 25 lakh on Vipin Mahajan, a former employee of NTPC, who is currently a director of the company. In both cases identical modus operandi was deployed for the over-invoicing and laundering process.
• In the KISPL appeal, a series of procedural irregularities have raised doubts about the integrity of CJ Mathew, the technical member on the bench hearing the KISPL case. The agency claimed that Mathew’s conduct “has been far from fair and impartial.” 
• An adverse ruling by the Customs, Excise and Service Tax Appellate Tribunal (CESTAT) in favor of KISPL, would set a precedent that could absolve the larger companies, both government-owned and those in the private sector, of the charges of fleecing the exchequer, and ultimately, the public. 
• The coal was shipped from Indonesian ports, whereas KISPL submitted invoices issued by firms such as Knowledge International Strategy Systems Pte, Singapore and Springs Trader Ltd, Hong Kong. KISPL supplied the imported coal to thermal power stations of the  Mahagenco. The DRI investigation claimed that the Singapore company was a “wholly owned subsidiary” of KISPL
• The Singapore company had created false documents to show that it had imported higher grades of coal. The amounts generated on account of the difference in prices were routed through a shell company based in Hong Kong. 
• The willingness of the finance ministry to fight the case against KISPL and similar cases relating to the over-invoicing of imported coal and power equipment will be tested in the future. It is worth repeating that huge sums of public money worth Rs 50,000 crore are involved.

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Eventhough Modi talked very high about corruption of Congress & UPA and his intent to fight out, during the 2013 campaign and on every public platform, the truth is that he himself is a worst corrupt politician, as reflected by CAG reports during his Gujarat CM tenure. But most Indians doesn't know his Gujarat CM episodes. His lifestyle as PM of India, doesn't make anyone believe that he is simple & honest. His spectacles are estimated to cost over Rs.2 lakhs and changes dress at least 5 times in a day. During his Prime Ministership of last 4 years, hardly any big-shot worthwhile had been booked for corrupt practices, save some hardcore political opponents. In the last year of his five year rule, he is saddled with overall under-performance and very poor financial performance, much can't be expected from him in this regard. Modi is likely to allow almost all ongoing cases disposed off relieving tainted personalities in exchange for election fund favors. Needless to say that BJP's election campaign expenses, during the last 5 years, are unimaginably higher in the country.

Dynasty runs every where in India

Dynasty runs every where in India in all walks of life -- politics, businesses, professions, and so on. This undermines merit, the essence of democracy. Royal titles having been abolished but Indians seem to not given up on the idea of dynastic rule. About 30% of the current MPs are dynasts.

• Whether it’s politics, businesses, or bollywood, Indians seem to have trust in their off springs, irrespective of whether they might be deserving or not. The stunning example is Rahul Gandhi.
• Dynasts are a widespread phenomenon in Asia. Singapore is effectively run by the Lee family. In China, sons and daughters of leading party members are known as 'red princes' because of the influence they wield. With the Roosevelts, the Kennedys, and the Bush family, America can't afford to sneer at Indian dynasts.
• Dynasticism works in modern political systems because it appeals to notions of inherited charisma that help legitimize leadership succession and minimize organisational division. In India, dynasts do seem able to hold parties together. 
• The Nehru-Gandhi family is the most prominent political dynasty in the country with four generations of the family having ruled the country. The Nehru-Gandhi family is the keystone of the Congress party. Take them out and the Congress party collapses. There are several dynasties across party lines all over the country. There seems nothing objectionable in political power passing from parent to progeny. In India dynasties are serving the needs of the present times while preserving democracy by providing a measure of stability.
• Even big business houses are quite often family-run enterprises. The Birlas, the Tatas and the Ambanis, three names that signify wealth and entrepreneurship for Indians, have passed on the baton from generation to generation, rarely allowing outsiders to head their conglomerates.
• One of Sonia Gandhi’s fiercest critics, Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray slammed her and her family for running a “fiefdom” and then went ahead and did exactly the same thing. In 2004, Thackeray declared his son, a political novice, as leader of Siva Sena.
• The Bollywood is dotted with “star kids” hoping that their children will continue to capture the imagination of audiences, lack of talent notwithstanding. Some have made it and some have fallen by the wayside.
• Governments run by 'the dynasty' doled out more subsidies, spent more and indebted the economy more than by non-dynastic governments. Subsidies create distortions in asset use, dampen individual incentives, promoted rampant corruption and resulted in retarded economic growth & development of nation.
• The communists and the Jan Sangh (BJP) were participants in Indian elections from the very beginning. Yet, in comparison to the Congress, they are far less dynastic.
• America which shouts loudest about democracy could be described as a plutocracy, such is the wealth required to enter the political fray as a major player there.

If you are not a communist at 20 you have problem with your heart and 

if you are not a capitalist by 40 you have problem with your brain ... Sudha Murthy

In a democracy it is the 'will' of the people which is supreme. Dynasty or non-dynasty is immaterial, as long as the candidate ascends to position based on the principle of the 'rule of the law'. There is no bar on dynastic descendant to participate in the process of elections. Most politicians forget that what ever sense or nonsense they do as per their whims is not necessarily in the interest of people nor has their approval. Therefore the processes must be transparent and followed at all times, discretion must be exercised rarely or never, accountability at all times, and financial matters must always have prior legislature approval. To ensure these, institutions must be strong and independent and must not be trampled with. Unfortunately that is not happening and opposite is prevailing. Social media cramped with BJP trolls are spreading untruths always pro-BJP and anti-Congress sentiments where as the fact is that both are as bad as each other. Today very few are bothered about worst state of economy, unemployment, distressed agriculture, perilous banking sector etc but are happily engaged in dirty politics and chest thumping for nothing with trophy projects or achievements. The kind of money spent each day on government advertisements for self aggrandizement -- a small town or 100 villages could be modernized every day.

Post Nehru, Congress governments rule resulted in rampant corruption and unmanageable subsidies and political landscape got filled with corruption money, musclemen and criminals. However, non congress governments headed by Morarji Desai and VP Singh did no better or even worse. Vajpayee did nothing except building highways & roads and could not control communal riots especially in Gujarat. Congress governments succeeding these non congress catastrophic governments provided much needed stability and economic recovery. Today, Modi government's 3+ year rule there is nothing to boast off except relentless publicity with economic parameters worse than where he started in 2014 despite very low oil prices. Failed demonetization, mangled GST hurriedly rolled out impacted economy greatly. With PSU banks on the verge of collapse with nearly Rs.10 lakh crores of NPAs economic recovery prior to 2019 is unlikely. 

Therefore, dynasty or non-dynasty is not an issue as long as it has people's mandate. Under Modi administration several state governments patronized by Modi's BJP don't have electoral mandate but are in power with manipulation of numbers. Matter of shame in the largest democracy.