Telangana: TDP - Kingmaker 2019

• TDP vote bank still remains at 7% in Telangana, as assessed by TRS and Congress but it could be much more at 10-12%. In Hyderabad city it could be as much as 20%. 
• If TDP fights elections alone, its gains will be far less in multi cornered contests.
• 2019 General elections will be bitterly fought between TRS and Congress. While BJP will be happy to align with TRS. That leaves TDP option-less to support 35 year rival Congress.
• TRS gestures towards TDP are always hot and cold. It is never trustworthy for anyone.

For 2019 elections TDP might have to get aligned with TRS or Congress only for the purpose of seat sharing to gain maximum seats. For that, it must focus on party organisational structure and rejuvenate it, right now. AP's diaspora in Telangana is very large at 20% of population and their well being is always be a concern of TDP.

Modi runs away from 'No confidence motion'

TDP's and YSRCP's individual no-confidence moves failed to take off on March 19, 2018, for the second time due to disorderly house created by AIADMK and TRS MP's rushing into well and shouting for their unimportant pending demands and creating feeble ruckus. The house was adjourned within minutes strangely for next day, giving rise to the suspicion that AIADMK & TRS protest in Lok Sabha was "stage-managed" by BJP. Despite sweeping powers, the Speaker has not made any attempt to restore order in the House for taking up the important motion of no-confidence and just adjourned the house for the day saying, "I'm duty-bound to bring the no-confidence motion. But I cannot do so that unless the House is in order". Orderly running of the house is the responsibility of Speaker, PM and Parliamentary affairs minister. 

Ever since Modi became PM, discussion on important matters was always thwarted by BJP and questions were never answered straight forward. The recent passage of Finance Bill with 28 amendments in less than 30 minutes amidst pandemonium is a glaring example.

Why BJP is hiding from a no-confidence motion despite having sufficient numbers?

• There is considerable disillusion in BJP arising out of recent LS bye poll defeats in Rajasthan, MP, WB, Bihar and UP with huge margins. It is surprising to note that BJP leaders are the most happiest persons for BJP's debacle in bye polls in North.
• BJP is scared of its own MP may not be present in LS at the time of voting. 
• The entire opposition became united, on AP issues, for the first time in the past 4 years.
• Debates during 'no confidence motion' are unconstrained and will provide great opportunity for all opposition parties to ventilate their grievances on any matter and charge that ruling BJP has nos not done much for many other states. Also all his failures during past 4 years will getting highlighted during the debate.
• Any discussion that allows for scathing criticism in an election year is something the government wants to avoid. This negative publicity is likely to impact BJP's chances, if any, in the forth coming Karnataka elections. The bank frauds can no longer be dismissed as a creation of the UPA as these fraudsters left the country under the Modi dispensation. Above all, Modi doesn't like or he hates criticism and has no attitude to answer questions straight forward.
• The exit of TDP from NDA has already dented BJP's credibility in accommodating its allies. The TDP's no-confidence motion has put an end to the "myth" that the BJP-led Modi government has an unshakable mandate for the next 25 years, as said by Shiv Sena. Shiv Sena's allegation that The TDP's no-confidence motion is for its political reasons and not for any 'nationalist' reason holds no water since TDP is a regional party only. 
• But TDP has no choice since BJP has not fulfilled its 19+ obligations in implementing AP Reorganization Act 2014 even in its last year of the 5 year mandate, which is unpardonable. Needless to say 5 crore AP people are unanimously angry over BJP's attitude of highhandedness and TDP exiting NDA and tabling no confidence motion made Naidu a hero. Public perception can't be ignored in a democracy especially when they are not demanding the sky.
• Even though YSRCP announced no confidence motion a month ago, none took it seriously with their integrity and corrupt background with YS Jagan as A1 in a dozen cases and his properties worth several thousand crores attached by ED so far. The talk in AP is that YSRCP is cooperating with BJP secretly to get out of cases and silently getting its properties out of ED's attachment. With these its mass base is fast shrinking.
• The manner in which BJP has formed governments recently in Goa, Meghalaya and Nagaland without explicit majority or even highest seats denying Congress with highest seats opportunity to form coalition government indicates their utter disrespect for democratic norms and constitution.
• BJP will certainly defend itself even attack opposition invoking irrelevant historical pasts etc. but opposition will have more ammunition to fire at BJP.

BJP must be regretting now that it could have done something on its own (of about 20% as per AP Reorganization Act 2014) for funds starving AP in this last Budget 2018 so that this embarrassment would have been avoided. Modi is paying very big price for his highhandedness and headstrong attitude. Modi successfully added another negative item to BJP's already 'worst performer' account.

With what ever is happening during the past 10 days, Modi & Jaitley with their arrogance belittled themselves as reflected by unity among almost all opposition parties, Chandrababu Naidu became hero of Telugu Pride and BJP got buried underground worse than that of Congress party in 2014. With BJP and Congress seen as AP cheaters and Jagan (YSRCP) seen in collusion with BJP & Modi, TDP is assured landslide victory in 2019 general elections in AP.

TDP moves no confidence motion in LS

    

Minutes after pulling out from NDA, Mr. Chandrababu Naidu TDP supremo changed his strategy of supporting the YSRCP’s no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government in the Lok Sabha and directed his party MPs to take the initiative and move it. Apparently the TDP wanted not to be seen allying with corrupt YSRCP and wanted to project itself taking head-on with BJP, which any way is considerably weakened as indicated by a series of bye poll reversals in northern states. 

• While YSRCP's motion didn't attract many of the opposition parties despite its lobbying, Naidu's no confidence motion was supported instantly by 16 opposition parties - Congress, NCP, TMC, YSRCP, SP, RJD, AAP, CPM, CPI, RSP, JD(S), JMM, AIMIM, Kerala Congress, NC, IUML all with about 150 LS members. 
• TRS adopted 'wait & watch' policy. TRS says it supports the demand for special category status for AP but will not support the no-confidence motion in the LS against the NDA government describing the move as a "political gimmick", which is untenable.
• NDA enjoys majority in Lok Sabha and runs no risk of being toppled by this no confidence moved by TDP. The Modi-BJP led NDA government still has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha well above the current halfway mark of 270. 
• But the motion has the potential to embarrass BJP as the issue of granting special-category status to AP will be debated at length by various leaders. The issue will hog headlines for several days and will impact the BJP's image and it will become a traitors party as the Parliament Acts and promises are not fulfilled. 
• It will encourage other NDA allies to raise contentious regional issues and increase disaffection within the alliance. Less than an year before the the next Lok Sabha elections, allies turning hostile will be bad optics for the NDA. It will also impact PM Modi's image of a leader that has confidence of several regional parties. 
• Faced with embarrassing electoral reversals in the bye polls in northern states, and no better position in western & central states and strong regional parties in east and south, BJP's prospects of getting even 100 seats in 2019 general elections appears dim.
• The Shiv Sena predicted that the BJP’s tally will come down by 100-110 seats in the 2019 general elections. The two victories by the SP in UP have created panic in the BJP at a time when they were busy celebrating the party’s victory in a small state like Tripura.
• With all major opposition parties rallying with TDP's motion and none of the allies are comfortable with Modi's autocratic style of working, BJP is likely to have tough time overcoming this situation.
• BJP employed cheap trick of using AIADMK & TRS stalling and adjourning LS to avoid discussion on no confidence on Fri, 16th March. Even budget was passed on 14th March without discussion and all 21 amendments adopted within 30 minutes. In the mean time, BJP approached Shiv Sena for truce, which earlier snapped ties with NDA.
• As the passage of the Finance Bill is completed, there is a possibility that the LS will be adjourned sine die thus thwarting no confidence motion. That would be absolute timidity on the part of Modi to avoid facing issues in Parliament which any way he has done so far.
• At present TDP has 16 LS seats and in next LS it is likely to have 20-22. In the event of BJP falling short of majority in 2019, Modi needs to depend on trusted allies and till yesterday TDP was considered a most trusted ally of BJP.

In AP Congress was buried 20 feet below ground with their highhanded and unjust bifurcation of AP in 2014. Now in 2018, BJP got buried 30 feet below the ground for their cheating the people of AP by not implementing provisions of AP Reorganization Act, not granting Special Category Status to AP and denying financial support for 19+ items and in the process insulting people of AP. BJP cadres are dumb faced and are scared of facing people of AP, despite their leadership ordering them to explain that they have done everything. So far, opposition parties were in disarray and now Modi's arrogance had provided opportunity to unite form alliance(s) to defeat BJP in the forthcoming elections. Even UP's recent bye election debacle, has not taught Modi any lesson. Instead of mending his ways and do the right thing, he preferred to kneel down before Shiv Sena for support. Modi's arrogance may end up in isolation of BJP in NDA and many trusted allies are likely to exit. Even though unlikely, if for any reason no confidence motion wins, mid term elections are a certainty paving the way for formation of non-BJP government in Delhi.

GST and KCR's outbursts

• In November 2016, KCR was the first non-BJP/NDA chief minister to support Modi's demonetization move. Telangana was the first state to pass the GST legislation on Apr 16, 2017. TRS extended unconditional support to BJP's  Ramnath Kovind as NDA's Presidential nominee and Vice President candidate.
• The dalliance between the ruling TRS and the BJP has practically ended with the completion of elections of the President and the vice-president. While the change in tone of KCR may appear at the outset to fight the GST, the battle between the Modi and TRS governments is about much more than what meets the eye. 
• GST Council has already lowered GST rates on  public utility and infrastructure projects from 18% to 12% as requested by several states in its first meeting. The Telangana state government has been asking the Centre not to levy 12% GST on the public utility and infrastructure projects. Telangana wants these projects to be taxed at 5%. 
• Under GST, the tax rate on cement, steel, and concrete — all key ingredients for the projects — has been reduced. This benefit will be pocketed by EPC contractors.
• Due to GST @12% in place of VAT @5%, Telangana government will have to bear the additional burden of Rs.19,500 on all ongoing public utility and infrastructure projects which are worth Rs.2.30 lakh crores.
• Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao declared Goods & Services Tax (GST) is a failure in several Nations. He made it clear success of GST in India depends on how well Centre handles the concerns.
• Now the CM KCR decided to write to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reduce 12% GST on the ongoing projects. Rao held that since the project estimates have been prepared keeping in view 5%  VAT, it is not possible to change them. He had "threatened" that the state government would engage in a "legal battle" in Supreme Court against the union government over the issue.

KCR walking extra miles to please Modi, devoid of merit and for unknown reasons, in matters of demonetization, GST, President & Vice President elections and expecting all he wants from Modi is not only naive but also stupidity. Modi is only a taker but never a giver. Ask Naveen Patnaik how much he got extra for Odisha from Modi, during past 3 years. Literally zero. The impacts of GST and its rates were well known in advance. Going forward states will become like municipalities of centre with very less freedom to mobilize funds. Centre will become extremely powerful with no direct responsibility of people welfare where as states will become extremely powerless and saddled with total responsibility of people's welfare. This is in contradiction of federal polity of our constitution. Ambedkar's fears of abuse of constitution without amending it are coming true in Modi's India.

TRS Plenary attended by over 15 lakhs people!

• It is sheer madness to mobilize lakhs of people and address them with political agenda and doling out false promises which will be forgotten even before getting down the dias.
• No one takes these promises seriously.
• No one comes to attend political meeting abstaining their daily work unless they are compensated much more than what they lose.
• Even during pre-independence days for meetings addressed by Gandhi, Congress was under compulsion to provide transport facilities.
• It is well known fact that the political party spends money for their transportation, provide food and pay them compensation plus middlemen charges. All this works out to over Rs.500 for ever attendee.
• The TRS Warangal plenary claimed to have been attended by over 15 lakhs people must have costed Rs.100 crores for people mobilization alone and another Rs.100 crores towards all other expenses.
• All service providers must have provided FREE services viz. flexi printers, advertising agencies, vehicle owners etc to TRS.
• They will recover their investment as favors from government at least by 10 times.
• All this Rs.200 crores must have costed contributing businessmen and industrialists to the extent of Rs.500 crores which they would recover in the form of concessions from Government or explosion of estimates or passing bills for substandard works done by them or even clearing fake vendor / work bills by over Rs.1,000 crores. 
• And that is exactly the price paid by people of Telangana (Rs.1,000 crores) for the sense less extravaganza by TRS and KCR.
• TRS leaders doing 'hamali' (hard labour) services for mobilizing funds for plenary expenses few lakhs in front TV cameras is just a drama for seeking cheap publicity.
• Every TRS leader participating & contributing actively doesn't do this for no profit. Each one of them must have amassed a fortune of 50 lakhs each.
• You see the win-win situation for TRS leaders, TRS politicians, Businessmen, Industrialists - all except the state and its people, who lost that much money.
• In the books of TRS, it might have spend few lakhs as plenary expenses. All other money is in black, cash & corruption.
• Ironically, all that attended the plenary are rural agricultural labour who must have abstained from work for 2-3 days impacting farmers during rabi harvesting season.

My View:
This madness must stop. While voluntary attendance is OK, mobilizing people with money, biryani & liquor is immoral, corruption, undemocratic and anti-national. This attitude is the chief cause of black money and its menace. This is utterly undemocratic and violates all principles of decency. You see how shamelessly, the organizers flexes their muscles about their capabilities which they have done with people's money, in most immoral ways.  Recollect, Modi addressing 200 meetings across width and depth of nation crisscrossing in chartered planes in 2014 must have costed at least Rs.10,000 crores. Who sponsored this kind of expense? Everyone knows. In return they borrowed huge amounts from public sector banks that are now saddled with Rs.700,000 crores of NPAs (almost all politically sponsored) and are sinking pulling down national economy. These guys makes us believe that they are now builders of modern India! Unless influence of money is eliminated in politics, we can't grow economically as a nation.

ABN Andhra Jyothi - RK Kothapaluku Sep 11, 2016

• The editorial shows RK's shift from AP towards TRS and BJP suggestive of accepting their superiority just because they are at giving end and AP at receiving end. This is unprincipled.
• Even though Pawan Kalyan's outbursts at Kakinada indicates his political immaturity but reflects the feelings of people of AP in reality.
• The 'Central Assistance to AP' package unveiled by Arun Jaitley & Venkaiah Naidu on Sep 08, 2016 falls short of fulfilling the obligations of Central Government contained in AP Reorganisation Act 2014 and promises made by then PM on the floor of RS while passing the bill at the behest of BJP leaders. Hence it is outright rejectable. No person with some kind of self respect will suggest its acceptance.
• RK quoting Andhra leaders walking out of Madras city immediately on announcing Andhra statehood without Madras city is only on the persuasion by Nehru to resolve the issue arising out of death of Potti Sreeramulu and its aftermath and avoiding conflict with stubborn C.Rajagopalachari CM, Madras state rather than any thing else. Nehru assured Andhra leaders about his acceptance to form linguistic states very soon and first linguistic state will be with merger of Andhra state and nine telugu speaking districts of Hyderabad state with Hyderabad city as its capital. Distorting facts and  writing in obscene language is indicative of either ignorance of facts or stupidity or both, by RK.
• RK should realise that Andhra statehood including Northern parts of Madras city was recommended by Madras Governor to Viceroy in 1930's but due to World War II it got stalled. Andhra statehood was promised by Gandhi in early 1940's but were asked to wait till independence.  But Gandhi died with in months of independence. It was C. Rajagopalchari powerful Tamil CM of Madras who could stall creation of Andhra state that resulted in frustration, fasting and death of Potti Sreeramulu. Trying to avoid confrontation with CR, Nehru persuaded Andhra leaders to forego Madras city and promised Hyderabad city while forming linguistic state of Andhra Pradesh. In the light of these facts, RK's loose comments on Andhra is uncharitable and despicable.
• Chandrababu Naidu, TDP CM of AP has full majority in the Assembly and he could very well reject the insulting package of Modi and survive in power. Who knows who will win in 2019 elections. I wish Modi not. Principles, self respect (NTR's anti Indira slogan of 1983) and political honesty are not negotiable and few thousands of crores is not worthy of that. 
• I would be glad if CBN calls it a day with BJP both at Centre & State and rejects the package and files 'writ of mandamus' in SC for directing Centre to fulfill its obligations of centre to AP as per AP Reorganisation Act 2014, which they didn't do deliberately on some pretext or other.
• Hats off to ONGC Charman Dinesh K Sarraf for filing case against Reliance as A1 and Union Government Ministry of Petroleum (70% shareholder in ONGC) as A2 in 'Great Indian Gas Robbery by Reliance' and safeguarding ONGC interests walking extra miles. I wish Chandra Babu Naidu to take clue from this.
• Venkaiah Naidu & Arun Jaitley (both opposition BJP leaders in RS then) has raised the matter of  'Special category Status' for AP in Rajya Sabha in 2014 and projected this as a magic wand which will solve all the problems arising out of mindless bifurcation of state by both Congress & BJP and the same was agreed on the floor of RS by the then UPA PM in the form of statement minutes before passing the Bill. And now same Venkaiah Naidu & Arun Jaitley, Central Ministers, at the behest of PM Modi, dares to say that certain NDC procedures doesn't allow them for granting SCS to AP now and came out with another magic wand called 'Central Assistance to AP' package which in its true sense is half of the obligations as per AP Reorganisation Act 2014 and expects AP people just accept it without applying their mind & brain. What an audacity on the part of BJP leaders for this shameless gesture. If they have guts let them conduct public meeting at Benz Centre, Vijayawada, talk about this and walk out in single piece without Police protection. 
• Needless to say that Union Government is accountable to Parliament only and nobody else as long as it follows Constitution and its statutes. Planning Commission, NDC etc are its subordinate organisations and their procedures are not binding on Union Cabinet. Even less educated person can vouch for this. BJP should understand what they are talking on SCS not granting to AP.
• If I have the authority, I would reject the package in its totality and insist on fulfilling AP Reorganisation Act 2014 provisions and promises made on the floor of Rajya Sabha to be in full, come what may within reasonable time frame.
• RK's suggestion to accept package and whatever it is worth, is unacceptable non-sense. People of AP are not beggars with begging bowl kneeling in front of Modi to accept what ever he feels like giving.
• RK praising KCR and his tendencies as a great political skills in another nonsense. On other hand High Court and Supreme Court admonished him for his illegal acts in at least 15 cases and some more cases in pipe line. I haven't seen such a shameless CM losing 15 cases in courts and continuing in that position. KCR resisting to hand over assets due to AP even after SC judgement and its time limit expired indicates how much respect he has for constitution, laws of the land etc. And height of stupidity is RK praising his maneuvers as great administrative skills.
• The writing will go endless and is worth stopping here.
• I wish RK will regain his lost senses.