Why NDA lost in 2004?

The Congress-UPA has just won 26.7% of popular vote people's mandate while BJP-NDA has won 22.16% only. Congress became the most voted party in this elections with a vote share that was 5% more than BJP. While UPA won 145 seats (gain of 31 seats), NDA won only 138 seats(loss of 44 seats). Although it is not a clear victory for Congress-UPA, it is a clear defeat for BJP-NDA. Here are the core reasons for the BJP-NDA's defeat. 

• NDA projected the election as the battle between Vajapayee and Sonia, and Sonia won and Vajapayee lost.
• NDA fell because of their own weight, own sins and Vajpayee's visionless leadership. 
• Old men are supposed to lose their marbles and AB Vajpayee seems to have lost the same. 
• Media singing songs of Vajpayee's greatness harmed NDA. 
• The media created a hype that Vajpayee is the greatest Indian leader, who could do no wrong and people didn't find any substance in that.
• NDA created an illusion that Vajpayee is the greatest PM, but people of India saw this old man, who never said a word or gave any opinion on any issue and remained silent through out his prime ministership and never took any crucial decision or reigned any of his colleague or Parivar people.
• People saw Vajpayee was old, forgetful and incompetent to solve India's problems while in Sonia Gandhi they saw a fresh face with purpose.
• The middle-class lost their hard-earned money in the UTI scandal.
• Large rural population's welfare has been over looked. 
• Unemployment and anti-poor stance. 
• Over-indulgence on trivial Hindutva issue.
• NDA reduced interest rates and impacted the voters honest savings. 
• The Tehelka reporters who exposed corruption were harassed.
• Concentrating to impress world nations and criminal negligence of the people's problems.
• Inaction on Gujarat CM Modi for not catching either Godhra train massacre culprits or Gujarat communal riots culprits that killed 2000 Muslims.
• After the horrendous massacre, Muslims were expecting that the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi will be put to trial, but instead he was awarded 127/182 seats (2/3rd majority) in mid term polls immediately after the riots with a gain of 10 seats.
• Gross miscalculation of NDA and their misreading of the 'pulse ' of the people.
• Impressive orations, debates and arguments like in court rooms than performance.
• BJP went overboard with the “India Shining” campaign which offended the rural & urban poor. Sonia Gandhi used the opportunity to mock at this campaign by pointing out India’s poverty.
• Anti-incumbancy factor.
• NDA allies too fared very badly - TDP(5/42) in AP & AIADMK(0/39) in Tamilnadu suffered humiliating defeats.
• BJP criticised congress and Sukhram.  Congress expelled Sukhram and in the next election Sukhram becomes an ally of BJP. BJP ought to be more ethical.
• Never in the history India witnessed such a low level malicious campaign by the ruling party. 
• BJP belived that insulting people is Hindu dharma, that's the price they have paid for. That's one of the main aspects in BJP debacle.
• BJPs failure to control Modi and his uncultured tirade against Sonia Gandhi.
• The consistent "Sonia Bashing" by BJP and it's top leaders, the larger than real life images and speeches by the so called second rung leaders of BJP ... Mahajan, Jaitley etc. and Rabble-rousing by Katyar, Modi, Uma bharati etc. have all had negative effects.
• Over-usage of the tasteless word "pseudo-secularism". It was flogged to death. Watching the arrogant BJP men debating on TV in the last two years.
• Corruption as exposed by Tehelka, Petrol-pump, coffin-gate by George Fernandes, etc. had its effect.
• Towards the end of this campaign, the BJP even openly begged Muslims for votes, thereby upsetting lakhs of its conventional supporters.

Elections 2004: BJP pays heavy price for arrogance, haste and strategic blunders

India Today | May 24, 2004 | Prabhu Chawla 

It has become fashion to interpret defeats with figures and statistics. It is very easy to come up with statistics and 'spin' the results any way you want but the reality is that the voting population preferred the Congress and their allies much more to the BJP and its allies. If anyone feels that it was not a mandate for Congress since they did not get majority of votes, it is just a joke. It might have been local issues that have brought the Congress to power and the people had no clue that they were sending Vajpayee packing who never deserved such a drubbing. Indian mentality will not allow appreciate a sacrifice and we always attribute some ulterior motive to every one. Even Mahatma Gandhi had serious critics at his time. No one wants to acknowledge Sonia Gandhi's sacrifice. If Sonia Gandhi wanted to become prime minister, nobody could have stopped her even if it was for one month and go down in history. If any one tries to find out for reasons why BJP should have won in 2004, he would have been amused with none. Vajpayee's inaction against Modi-Gujarat riots and ignoring poor and peasants are the primary causes for NDA's debacle in 2004. Today in 2018 similar situations are prevailing that is causing jitters among BJP, Modi & co., who are clueless how to come overcome this mess they created for themselves.

Modi runs away from 'No confidence motion'

TDP's and YSRCP's individual no-confidence moves failed to take off on March 19, 2018, for the second time due to disorderly house created by AIADMK and TRS MP's rushing into well and shouting for their unimportant pending demands and creating feeble ruckus. The house was adjourned within minutes strangely for next day, giving rise to the suspicion that AIADMK & TRS protest in Lok Sabha was "stage-managed" by BJP. Despite sweeping powers, the Speaker has not made any attempt to restore order in the House for taking up the important motion of no-confidence and just adjourned the house for the day saying, "I'm duty-bound to bring the no-confidence motion. But I cannot do so that unless the House is in order". Orderly running of the house is the responsibility of Speaker, PM and Parliamentary affairs minister. 

Ever since Modi became PM, discussion on important matters was always thwarted by BJP and questions were never answered straight forward. The recent passage of Finance Bill with 28 amendments in less than 30 minutes amidst pandemonium is a glaring example.

Why BJP is hiding from a no-confidence motion despite having sufficient numbers?

• There is considerable disillusion in BJP arising out of recent LS bye poll defeats in Rajasthan, MP, WB, Bihar and UP with huge margins. It is surprising to note that BJP leaders are the most happiest persons for BJP's debacle in bye polls in North.
• BJP is scared of its own MP may not be present in LS at the time of voting. 
• The entire opposition became united, on AP issues, for the first time in the past 4 years.
• Debates during 'no confidence motion' are unconstrained and will provide great opportunity for all opposition parties to ventilate their grievances on any matter and charge that ruling BJP has nos not done much for many other states. Also all his failures during past 4 years will getting highlighted during the debate.
• Any discussion that allows for scathing criticism in an election year is something the government wants to avoid. This negative publicity is likely to impact BJP's chances, if any, in the forth coming Karnataka elections. The bank frauds can no longer be dismissed as a creation of the UPA as these fraudsters left the country under the Modi dispensation. Above all, Modi doesn't like or he hates criticism and has no attitude to answer questions straight forward.
• The exit of TDP from NDA has already dented BJP's credibility in accommodating its allies. The TDP's no-confidence motion has put an end to the "myth" that the BJP-led Modi government has an unshakable mandate for the next 25 years, as said by Shiv Sena. Shiv Sena's allegation that The TDP's no-confidence motion is for its political reasons and not for any 'nationalist' reason holds no water since TDP is a regional party only. 
• But TDP has no choice since BJP has not fulfilled its 19+ obligations in implementing AP Reorganization Act 2014 even in its last year of the 5 year mandate, which is unpardonable. Needless to say 5 crore AP people are unanimously angry over BJP's attitude of highhandedness and TDP exiting NDA and tabling no confidence motion made Naidu a hero. Public perception can't be ignored in a democracy especially when they are not demanding the sky.
• Even though YSRCP announced no confidence motion a month ago, none took it seriously with their integrity and corrupt background with YS Jagan as A1 in a dozen cases and his properties worth several thousand crores attached by ED so far. The talk in AP is that YSRCP is cooperating with BJP secretly to get out of cases and silently getting its properties out of ED's attachment. With these its mass base is fast shrinking.
• The manner in which BJP has formed governments recently in Goa, Meghalaya and Nagaland without explicit majority or even highest seats denying Congress with highest seats opportunity to form coalition government indicates their utter disrespect for democratic norms and constitution.
• BJP will certainly defend itself even attack opposition invoking irrelevant historical pasts etc. but opposition will have more ammunition to fire at BJP.

BJP must be regretting now that it could have done something on its own (of about 20% as per AP Reorganization Act 2014) for funds starving AP in this last Budget 2018 so that this embarrassment would have been avoided. Modi is paying very big price for his highhandedness and headstrong attitude. Modi successfully added another negative item to BJP's already 'worst performer' account.

With what ever is happening during the past 10 days, Modi & Jaitley with their arrogance belittled themselves as reflected by unity among almost all opposition parties, Chandrababu Naidu became hero of Telugu Pride and BJP got buried underground worse than that of Congress party in 2014. With BJP and Congress seen as AP cheaters and Jagan (YSRCP) seen in collusion with BJP & Modi, TDP is assured landslide victory in 2019 general elections in AP.

Modi's Hypocrisy Bihar Vs Tamilnadu

• Bihar CM, Nitish Kumar dropped Lalu Prasad Yadav's family because he was fighting their corruption.
• BJP & Modi welcomes Nitish Kumar because it was fiercely fighting corruption.
• So they ought to be natural allies and joined hands for greater good of our great nation.
• Simultaneously AIADMK is getting rewired to join NDA which has zero strength in TN and AIADMK is third largest party in Parliament after BJP & Congress.
• AIADMK leaders Late Jayalalithaa and Sasikala were convicted of corruption, by Supreme Court, and Sasikala is now serving sentence and Jayalalithaa was dead few days before conviction. Even if CM EA Palaniswamy abandons Sasikala, the taint of corruption of AIADMK still remains intact.
• BJP is so anxious to join hands with Nitish to fight corruption in Bihar, is even more eager to embrace corruption ridden AIADMK in Tamilnadu, as  soon as merger of its two factions and getting rid of Sasikala & Dinakaran gets completed soon.
• What a hypocricy by Modi, BJP and NDA!

Politics makes strange bedfellows. 

Political interests can bring together people who otherwise have little in common. 

Sasikala's power struggle in Tamilnadu

Within days of Jayalalitha’s death, Sasikala got elected as general secretary of the AIADMK although she had no official responsibility within the party and Jayalalitha had never publicly indicated any role for her. Sasikala assumed Jayalalitha’s role for herself and easily usurped it. There weren't any murmurs within the party when Sasikala wanted to become the leader although there were veterans who could have harboured leadership ambitions. Even O Paneerselvam, the only man whom Jayalalitha had shown any favour appeared meek and subservient. Sasiakala wasn’t content with just that and wanted the executive role as well and within two months of Jayalalitha’s death, her makeover was complete and she was ready to occupy the chief minister's office till the governor applied breaks on what appeared to be an easy ride.

In contrast, Jayalalitha’s story of ascendance starts with MGR picking her as the party’s propaganda secretary in 1983, and sending her to the Rajya Sabha in 1984. When MGR  died in 1987, she was treated like an outcast by an inimical coterie in the party. Jayalalitha wasn’t informed about MGR's death. She gatecrashed into his house, and then followed his body to the Rajaji Hall. Although unwanted and physically abused, she stood by his body in a white saree for 21 hours. The worst part is that she was pushed down from the carriage in which MGR’s body was taken for burial. Jayalalitha slogged for a decade and endured crushing misogyny, humiliation and even physical assault to inherit her mentor’s legacy. Jayalalithaa wrote her own story, that too following the rules of democracy, and didn’t usurp anybody else’s. Jayalalithaa didn’t take any shortcuts although she had MGR’s explicit nod as his protégé. 

In contrast, the narrative that we see now in Tamil Nadu is one of manipulation. Sasikala neither has Jaya’s approval nor people’s mandate, still, she wants to be the chief minister. She was close to Jayalalithaa, arguably the closest, who stuck with her through the thick and thin for three decades. And she had to endure the post-1996 deluge of criminal cases, which incidentally was also caused by the members of her extended family known as 'Mannargudi Mafia'. It’s also true that without her taking over, the party would have fractured. But in the public eye, nothing is good enough to subvert democracy, because that’s the core essence of India. While Jayalalithaa's story had been about talent, stardom, hard work, resolve, resistance, and success, Sasikala's is of a shadow that suddenly came to life.

How Modi once saved Jayalalitha from a Frankenstein's monster Sasikala in  2011

At the instance of Sasikala, the Chief Minister O Paneerselvam resigning, obtaining Governor's acceptance and then proposing & getting elected Sasikala as legislature party leader and Sasikala informing Governor Ch.Vidyasagar Rao and making arrangements for swearing in ceremony went at brisk pace all in a single day. The very same day Paneerselvam revolting against Sasikala, despite no support from any of his co-MLAs, and informing Governor that he resigned under pressure from Sasikala and wants to withdraw 'unprecedented' accepted resignation and requested for opportunity for proving strength on the floor of the house is simply an afterthought which was masterminded by Modi & Co. Paneerselvam, even with support of DMK (89) & Congress (8) still requires AIADMK (19) MLAs supporting him to prove majority while all AIADMK MLAs were hidden in resorts by Sasikala and unreachable.

But Governor indicating to hold on in view of expected Supreme Court judgement in next few days time pushing Tamilnadu into political turmoil is unprecedented and contrary to established practices. The leaks reaching media are that at the instance of Modi, Home Minister Rajnath Singh did all this, even though BJP is zero in TN. Irrespective of reasons allowing more than 5 days time to Paneerselvam in not only to contrary to practices but also resulted in intense horse trading.

If Jayalalitha (A1 in the case) could become CM in May 2016, why not Sasikala (A2 in the same case) has to await Supreme Court's final judgement? This is nothing but Modi meddling in TN matters without even having a single BJP seat through Governor. Supreme Court remarked in its hearings that "merely possessing assets disproportionate to known income does not amount to corruption unless the source of that income is illegal" and the burden of proving crime rests on CBI (not on Jayalalithaa & co etc to prove their innocence) and acquittal will surprise none.

As things stand now, Sasikala is unstoppable, even though detrimental to the interests of people of Tamilnadu.

My View:
If Sasikala becomes CM in next few days, she will be ruling Tamilnadu for next 4.5 years without mandate of people of Tamilnadu. The question is when we had no objection for Manmohan Singh ruling the nation for 10 years without people mandate, then why should we have objection for Sasikala? But knowing the attitude & character of Sasikala, especially after Mannargudi Mafia stories are convincing, Tamilnadu is heading for darker days and if DMK & Stalin are lucky a mid term poll is likely. Personally I would prefer mid term poll since people mandated Jayalilatha, without any declared successor, is dead now and people should decide on destiny of TN not Sasikala's henchmen who got elected as MLAs, clandestinely, with Jayalalitha-AIADMK's ticket.

Modi & BJP are attempting gain foothold in Tamilnadu through Paneerselvam will materialize or not, let's wait and see. Knowing the tendencies of South Indians they would neither trust BJP nor Congress, parties dominated by North Indians. DMK's resurrection is likely in case of midterm poll.