Modi bites dust in Tamilnadu

Jayalalitha expired on December 5, 2016 and O.Paneer Selvam became Chief Minister of Tamilnadu for third time. On Sun Feb 5, 2017, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister O.Panneerselvam,  tendered his resignation from the post citing 'personal reasons' and Governor accepted the same. In a separate but near identical letters, Panneerselvam thanked Prime Minister Modi and Governor Ch.Vidyasagar Rao for all the support and cooperation extended by them during his term. After O.Paneer Selavam submitted his resignation as CM of Tamilnadu and Leader of the AIADMK legislature party and he himself had proposed Sasikala as Leader of the AIADMK legislature party. Same day and AIADMK MLAs elected party chief V K Sasikala as their leader, paving the way for her appointment as Chief Minister. 

At this juncture Modi & BJP saw an opportunity to gain foothold in Tamilnadu, with just 2.86% vote share and lost all 232 seats contested in 2016 elections. Governor, Ch.Vidyasagar Rao (a BJP leader) indicated that in the interest of forming a stable government, he would wait for SC judgement, in a DA case against Jayalalitha, Sasikala, Elavarasi & Sudhakaran, and had traveled from Delhi to Mumbai instead of to Chennai. Governor's action of not inviting majority party leader to form government, on some pretext or other, is fundamentally incorrect, unprecedented, irrational and blatantly unconstitutional & illegal as there is no bar on a person holding constitutional positions until convicted and jailed. Presumptive action by Governor is in violation of fundamental principles of democracy is untenable and despicable. At the same time the outgoing CM O.Paneer Selvam changed his mind and revolted against Sasikala charging her with applying pressure to sign resignation and requested Governor to permit him withdraw the resignation which was already accepted and is unmaintainable. On Feb 14, 2016 SC delivered judgement upholding Trial Court's conviction judgement in toto, setting aside HC's acquittal judgement, and Governor's stand seems to be vindicated but still is unconstitutional and amounts to overreaching his powers. 

Modi's game plan got tumbled with Paneer Selvam unable to obtain switch of 20 MLAs from Sasikala's group camping at Mahabalipuram resort to his side that could topple Sasikala's claim, with the support of DMK & Congress, arch rivals of Sasikala, despite seven days of time. Going by the inordinate delay in Governor inviting Sasikala to form Government and tone of statements by Paneer Selvam it is clear to everyone that Modi is behind Paneer Selvam's histrionics. Sasikala before proceeding to Bangalore jail got K.Palani Swamy elected as AIADMK legislature party leader with 124 MLA's signing the support document and Governor, Ch.Vidyasagar Rao has no option but to invite Sasikala's proxy K.Palani Swamy to form government and obtain confidence of house within 15 days.

Thus, Modi is once again is at receiving end in Tamilnadu, after his failed adventures in Bihar, Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh, in the past denting his already spoiled image further badly.

My View:
Modi and BJP's game plan to gain foot hold in every state without winning hearts of the people by sheer manipulations is totally against the principles of democracy and making mockery of governance. With Sasikala in jail, and thin majority of 124 against 117, how long K.Palani Swamy government will survive is a million dollar question. A switch by 10 MLAs will pull down the government for which DMK, BJP and Congress would be anxious to do at the earliest opportunity. If that happens, most likely it will in next few months, midterm poll becomes inevitable and DMK & Stalin would be in a position of advantage.

Sensing the reality, the parties behind Paneerselvam namely BJP, DMK & Congress distanced themselves and are trying to be neutral in the forthcoming floor test of new CM Palaniswamy and allowing Paneerselvam to get isolated.

Sasikala's power struggle in Tamilnadu

Within days of Jayalalitha’s death, Sasikala got elected as general secretary of the AIADMK although she had no official responsibility within the party and Jayalalitha had never publicly indicated any role for her. Sasikala assumed Jayalalitha’s role for herself and easily usurped it. There weren't any murmurs within the party when Sasikala wanted to become the leader although there were veterans who could have harboured leadership ambitions. Even O Paneerselvam, the only man whom Jayalalitha had shown any favour appeared meek and subservient. Sasiakala wasn’t content with just that and wanted the executive role as well and within two months of Jayalalitha’s death, her makeover was complete and she was ready to occupy the chief minister's office till the governor applied breaks on what appeared to be an easy ride.

In contrast, Jayalalitha’s story of ascendance starts with MGR picking her as the party’s propaganda secretary in 1983, and sending her to the Rajya Sabha in 1984. When MGR  died in 1987, she was treated like an outcast by an inimical coterie in the party. Jayalalitha wasn’t informed about MGR's death. She gatecrashed into his house, and then followed his body to the Rajaji Hall. Although unwanted and physically abused, she stood by his body in a white saree for 21 hours. The worst part is that she was pushed down from the carriage in which MGR’s body was taken for burial. Jayalalitha slogged for a decade and endured crushing misogyny, humiliation and even physical assault to inherit her mentor’s legacy. Jayalalithaa wrote her own story, that too following the rules of democracy, and didn’t usurp anybody else’s. Jayalalithaa didn’t take any shortcuts although she had MGR’s explicit nod as his protégé. 

In contrast, the narrative that we see now in Tamil Nadu is one of manipulation. Sasikala neither has Jaya’s approval nor people’s mandate, still, she wants to be the chief minister. She was close to Jayalalithaa, arguably the closest, who stuck with her through the thick and thin for three decades. And she had to endure the post-1996 deluge of criminal cases, which incidentally was also caused by the members of her extended family known as 'Mannargudi Mafia'. It’s also true that without her taking over, the party would have fractured. But in the public eye, nothing is good enough to subvert democracy, because that’s the core essence of India. While Jayalalithaa's story had been about talent, stardom, hard work, resolve, resistance, and success, Sasikala's is of a shadow that suddenly came to life.

How Modi once saved Jayalalitha from a Frankenstein's monster Sasikala in  2011

At the instance of Sasikala, the Chief Minister O Paneerselvam resigning, obtaining Governor's acceptance and then proposing & getting elected Sasikala as legislature party leader and Sasikala informing Governor Ch.Vidyasagar Rao and making arrangements for swearing in ceremony went at brisk pace all in a single day. The very same day Paneerselvam revolting against Sasikala, despite no support from any of his co-MLAs, and informing Governor that he resigned under pressure from Sasikala and wants to withdraw 'unprecedented' accepted resignation and requested for opportunity for proving strength on the floor of the house is simply an afterthought which was masterminded by Modi & Co. Paneerselvam, even with support of DMK (89) & Congress (8) still requires AIADMK (19) MLAs supporting him to prove majority while all AIADMK MLAs were hidden in resorts by Sasikala and unreachable.

But Governor indicating to hold on in view of expected Supreme Court judgement in next few days time pushing Tamilnadu into political turmoil is unprecedented and contrary to established practices. The leaks reaching media are that at the instance of Modi, Home Minister Rajnath Singh did all this, even though BJP is zero in TN. Irrespective of reasons allowing more than 5 days time to Paneerselvam in not only to contrary to practices but also resulted in intense horse trading.

If Jayalalitha (A1 in the case) could become CM in May 2016, why not Sasikala (A2 in the same case) has to await Supreme Court's final judgement? This is nothing but Modi meddling in TN matters without even having a single BJP seat through Governor. Supreme Court remarked in its hearings that "merely possessing assets disproportionate to known income does not amount to corruption unless the source of that income is illegal" and the burden of proving crime rests on CBI (not on Jayalalithaa & co etc to prove their innocence) and acquittal will surprise none.

As things stand now, Sasikala is unstoppable, even though detrimental to the interests of people of Tamilnadu.

My View:
If Sasikala becomes CM in next few days, she will be ruling Tamilnadu for next 4.5 years without mandate of people of Tamilnadu. The question is when we had no objection for Manmohan Singh ruling the nation for 10 years without people mandate, then why should we have objection for Sasikala? But knowing the attitude & character of Sasikala, especially after Mannargudi Mafia stories are convincing, Tamilnadu is heading for darker days and if DMK & Stalin are lucky a mid term poll is likely. Personally I would prefer mid term poll since people mandated Jayalilatha, without any declared successor, is dead now and people should decide on destiny of TN not Sasikala's henchmen who got elected as MLAs, clandestinely, with Jayalalitha-AIADMK's ticket.

Modi & BJP are attempting gain foothold in Tamilnadu through Paneerselvam will materialize or not, let's wait and see. Knowing the tendencies of South Indians they would neither trust BJP nor Congress, parties dominated by North Indians. DMK's resurrection is likely in case of midterm poll.