General election 2019 blues

This is a waveless election (2019) wherein the preference or dismissal of a leader and issues seem to be pre-determined by the social background (caste and community) of voters. 

• The BJP  won 31% of the vote with 282 seats nationally in 2014. This is the highest vote to seat conversion indicating heaviest fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes. Plain arithmetic suggests that if all major non-BJP forces come together, the Modi machine will halt.
• Today BJP today rules 17 of 29 states (a year ago 21/29 states), either directly or with its allies. Despite BJP's countrywide presence, it is also true that the opposition has been winning most of the Lok Sabha by-elections which is a sign of defeat for the Modi-Shah combine in these elections.
• Anti Modi factors are: Demonetisation, GST, cow vigilante  lynchings, agrarian crisis, unemployment, inflation, cattle trade ban, etc.
• Pro Modi factors: Good governance, divided opposition, Balakot airstrike, surgical strikes, absence of major scams, etc. Factors such as welfare schemes like the PM Awas Yojana, Ujjwala Yojana (free LPG cylinder connection to BPL families), Rs 2,000 to the farmers, are secondary reasons for BJP.
• BJP which won in UP (71/80 seats), Rajasthan (25/25), Gujarat (26/26), Bihar (31/40), MP (27/29), Chattisgarh (10/11), Maharashtra (22/48) and Karnataka (17/28), in 2014, may lose most of these seats in 2019. 
• There is no perceptible Modi “wave” this time and the muscular nationalism plank that the BJP banks on fails to evoke the required response in the face of widespread agrarian crisis.
• The public resentment against the BJP governments is glaringly evident even though some believe that Modi has no alternative. It is also clear the BJP is not adding any new constituency of voters. The trends point to a clear reduction of the BJP’s tally from its commanding position of 2014. 
• Stung by the failure of the campaign based on muscular nationalism in the early phases of voting, the BJP desperately looks for new strategies and altered roadmaps, with emphasis on Hindutva. The candidature of the Malegaon blast accused, Sadhvi Pragya Singh Thakur, in Bhopal against Digvijaya singh is a major step towards Hindutva consolidation.
• Modi's election campaign is increasingly looking like his style of governance over the last five years, particularly the manner in which demonetization and GST were pursued. A new narrative every day, with new reasoning and strategies along with altered road maps to attain a proclaimed objective. This could also lead to results as chaotic as demonetization and GST produced.
• Congress party has scored some vital points in terms of ideation of new policy initiatives and programmes, but has failed to follow this up with solid organisational initiatives and electoral strategies.
• In Uttar Pradesh, multiple narratives are impacting the election in different ways. BJP's candidate's weaker profile as compared to BSP-SP-RLD alliance is widely acknowledged.
• People are not interested in communal issues but have economic concerns. The BJP had impar­ted a larger-than-life cult image to Modi. Even now they are projecting him as a lone lion in the jungle versus the rest. This is not going to work now.
• Had even a single person been killed in Pakistan by our our strikes, would they have returned Wing Commander Abhinandan in one single piece within days? Is Imran Khan not answerable to the people of Pakistan? So how did Amit Shah claim we killed 250 Pakistanis!” -- Raj Thackeray 
• EVM's are neither easy to tamper with and at the same time not tamper proof. Its non-transparent mechanism gives scope for losing candidate to think that EVM has been tampered with. Unless public confidence is earned, EVM will remain a contentious issue. EC telling that EVMs are perfect without explaining how they are perfect is nonsense.
• This election is not about who wins but to ensure that the BJP loses so that the nation survives. “We will take on each other later.”  -- Raj Thackeray 
• Mukesh Ambani had recently extended his support to Congress candidate Milind Deora in South Mumbai constituency. Raj Thackeray called this shift in Ambani’s loyalty from BJP to Congress is a big message to the country. Ambani is Uddhav Thackeray’s close friend but decided to side with a Congress candidate is a clear indication that Modi is heading towards defeat.

As things stand today, a weak opposition is Modi’s biggest strength and he is likely to benefit from the TINA (there is no alternative) factor the most, with other positives contributing towards making him virtually unassailable. Reactions from the echelons of the Sangh Parivar after the first two rounds of polling point towards a sense of unease. Many leaders admit that there is a possibility that the BJP would only win half the seats it had in 2014. 

Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik’s act of dissolving the Assembly when three non-BJP political parties in the State were on the verge of forming a coalition government is of a piece with the systematic undermining of democratic polity. Modi unleashing CBI, ED, Income Tax etc on all anti-BJP parties terrorizing opposing candidates and immobilizing their associates is gross misuse of institutions which are supposed work autonomously. In order to safeguard democracy it is important that Modi & BJP must be defeated in this 2019 elections and be watchful that future governments don't follow the same path. 

Rahul Gandhi proves his mettle

Today, after winning successive elections since 2014 except Bihar, Delhi and Punjab [BJP & allies rule expanded to 19 of 29 states; Congress rule restricted to just 5 states] the invincible Prime Minister Modi is scared of only one man by the name Rahul Gandhi, whom he & his trolls once described as 'pappu' and a 'reluctant politician'. During the past six months Rahul Gandhi smashed all these and gave a spirited and stunning fight in Gujarat election making Modi and his BJP machine sweat like never before. Here are some points proving his mettle:

1. Rahul Gandhi said on demonetisation "Initially the government spoke about black-money, then moved to counterfeit currency and then again to a cashless society campaign. The prime minister took this so-called bold decision single-handedly. The bold decision can also be a foolish decision. And this has devastated the country. More than 100 people have died. Farmers, fishermen, daily wage earners have been hit hard." He also said "Dr Jaitley, the economy is in the ICU because of notes ban and GST. Aap kehtey hai aap kissi sey kum nahi/ magar aapki dava mein dum nahi."
2. Rahul Gandhi said on GST roll out "A reform that holds great potential is being rushed through in a half-baked way with a self-promotional spectacle. GST is being executed by an incompetent and insensitive government without planning, foresight and institutional readiness. India deserves a GST roll out that does not put crores of its ordinary citizens, small businesses & traders through tremendous pain & anxiety. Their GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. Small shopkeepers are finished. Lakhs of youths have been unemployed. But they are still not ready to listen. Congress GST is 'Genuine Simple Tax'. Modiji’s GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'." 
3. Rahul Gandhi hammers on 'unemployment' issue repeatedly. On his superb trip to USA he said, "I think the central reason why Mr. Modi arose is the question of jobs in India. There’s a large part of our populations that simply do not have jobs and cannot see a future. But, certainly our prime minister is not doing enough in creating jobs. 30,000 new youngsters are joining the job market every single day and yet the government is only creating 500 jobs a day. My main issue with Mr Modiji is that he diverts that issue and points the finger somewhere else instead of listening." Though the ruling government floated a plethora of schemes like ‘Make in India’, ‘Startup India’ and ‘Digital India’, all of these initiatives proved to be duds.
4. Speaking on women rights back in 2014 Rahul Gandhi  said, "We talk a lot about becoming a superpower in the world but till the women of our country do not feel comfortable and secured, our country cannot become a superpower. And to tell you the truth, we don’t want such a superpower status, where women are not empowered. One thing I have learnt is if you empower women, they can do anything. One important battle we have to win is the women’s reservation Bill in Parliament. We’re not going to let go of it." The BJP had promised during their pre-election rallies that the women’s reservation bill would be passed as soon as they got into power. Despite three and a half years of Modi rule, the bill has not come up in the Lok Sabha so far.
5. Rahul Gandhi while speaking on intolerance had previously said, "Truth and Power are not the same thing. Truth is what stands up to power. Today, there is no doubt that the emperor is completely naked but there is no one with any courage to point it out. When the British came to India, people handed over freedom to them. It was never taken away from us. This could very well happen now. Both the RSS and Mr Modi want to create a country where people live in utmost fear surrendering their voice so that they can rule unhindered. Mr Modi, after locking his cabinet colleagues in a room announced demonetization which wiped off lakhs of jobs. Many media houses have been depicting this as a work of genius even while admitting in private that it was an act of insanity. Most of them have lost their voice." At his recently concluded USA trip, he again said, "What happened to the tolerance that prevailed in India? What happened to the harmony? For thousands of years, India has had a reputation of peace and harmony. This is being challenged. Our most powerful asset is that 1.3 billion people lived happily, non-violently, peacefully. This is something that as Congress people, every single one of us has to defend."
6. On agrarian crisis Rahul Gandhi said in a rally in Maharashtra, "Everyone knows that a farmer needs the support of the nation and the State Government. If you ask any farmer, how much money comes from their farm, then every farmer will tell you – if the MSP is not increased, if there are no rains and no compensation or bonus is given, then they won’t be able to work, and this is the truth behind today’s India."  Criticising the ruling NDA Government, Rahul said in Gujarat "the suit boot government doesn’t do anything for the farmers." Speaking earlier this year to the bereft farmers from Tamil Nadu, he said,” The farmers have been sitting here for so long. But neither the government nor the Prime Minister is listening to them. The people and farmers of Tamil Nadu deserve to be heard by the Prime Minister who is disrespecting them by not initiating any dialogue. Over the last three years, debt worth Rs 1.4 lakh crore held by 50 industrialists have been written off. Why the same is not being done in case of the farmers? Why are their debts not being waived? It is the Prime Minister’s responsibility to do so.” 
7. Rahul Gandhi has made the 'failed development model of BJP' as the body and soul of his Gujarat campaign. Modi had come to power based on the stellar work he had apparently done in Gujarat which he promised would be juxtaposed to other states as well. But Rahul Gandhi ripped that narrative to pieces saying, "Gujarat model of development can be called toffee model or ‘gubbara’ (balloon) model, which is nothing but loot of public money to benefit big people like Tata and Adani. Modi had given away 45,000 acres belonging to poor farmers and the size of Bihar’s Purnea district to a single person (Adani) at a rate of rupees one per sq metre which is equivalent to the price of a toffee. He gave away the entire stretch of land at a paltry sum of Rs.300 crores. Modi had also provided Rs.10,000 crore loan to Tata Motors for its Nano car project at 0.1% interest, while the common man get loan from banks at 12% interest. For every Nano car, the Gujarat government is providing Rs.40,000 assistance. The total budget of the Gujarat government on education, health and other welfare is less than Rs.10,000 crore." Speaking later he added, "Vikas has gone crazy? India’s economy has been destroyed. But everyone is quiet because they are afraid to speak against Narendra Modiji. These are not my words. Senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha has written this in a newspaper article today. Poverty reduction in Gujarat was highlighted as a huge success but reports have since shown that it has been slower than most of the other states. There has been undoubted progress in electrification and infrastructure development but that has mostly played in the hands of the corporate sector with little to no improvement for the masses! If Gujarat model was dissected, an entire thesis could well be written on it with both pros and cons. We would just stop short of calling it a bigger success than it was.
8. We worked for 10 years to bring peace in Kashmir. Speaking in USA on the violence in the valley, Rahul Gandhi said, "PDP was instrumental in bringing youngsters in politics, but the day Modi made alliance with PDP, he destroyed them (PDP). He (Modi) massively opened up space for the terrorists in Kashmir, and you saw the increase in violence.Violence against anybody is wrong. Hatred, anger and violence can destroy us, the politics of polarisation is dangerous. These incidents are making millions feel that they have no future in their country. I lost my father, my grandmother to violence, if I don’t understand violence then who will?"

Read the source article

Rahul Gandhi blames the BJP for spreading abuses about him

Agrarian crisis: A wake up call

• The Modi government needs to move beyond empty rhetoric and gimmicks to clear policy formulation and implementation to solve the agrarian crisis, which has been brewing for years now. 
• The timing of the current, almost nationwide, farmer agitation that is strikingly unique. It has erupted in a year when the farm sector seems to have achieved all the cherished objectives: an above 5% growth rate and record production not only in food grains but also in fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The Union government has claimed successful implementation of various schemes for the agriculture sector.
• The fact of the matter is that beyond all these seemingly positive factors, there is grave economic distress in the rural areas in general and in the farming community in particular. It is a crisis that marked the advent of economic policies of liberalisation in the farm sector and has persisted right from the early 1990s.
• The two principal demands of the agitating farmers, loan waiver and implementation of the Swaminathan Commission recommendations, which provide for a 50% profit margin on input cost—not only summarise this grave economic distress in rural areas but also point to the probable solution of the problems.
• The BJP’s election manifesto in 2014 said that once in power, the party “will take steps to enhance the profitability in agriculture, by ensuring a minimum of 50% profits over the cost of production, cheaper agriculture inputs and credit; introducing latest technologies for farming and high yielding seeds and linking MGNREGA to agriculture”. 
• The loan waiver concept was addressed by Modi himself at various meetings during the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh. Evidently, both the issues that form the root cause of the current farmer agitation were in the radar of the BJP for a considerable period of time.
• The schemes devised on the basis of one’s understanding need to generate a sense of benefit in the targeted sections of the population. Various schemes announced, sought to be implemented, and celebrated as great success by the Modi government as part of its third anniversary celebrations will highlight this mismatch. 

1. Crop insurance: At its core, it has nothing to do with increasing farmers’ income but is just a risk coverage for which farmers are paying a premium. The real beneficiary is the government since the risk of paying compensation has now shifted from the treasury to the insurance companies. The loser is the farmer since he or she has to first cough up a premium in order to be eligible for insurance. Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): crop insurance is compulsory for farmers availing themselves of loans and voluntary for non-loanee farmers. A farmer has to pay 2-5% of the premium fixed by the insurance company. The remaining amount of the premium is subsidised by both the Centre and the States under a 50:50 plan. There is no cap on the maximum amount that insurance companies can quote as premium. If any State is unable to mobilise resources as dictated by the insurance companies, the scheme will come to a standstill.
2. Statistics jugglery: The government has also been trying to mislead people with statistics jugglery. It claimed that the total number of farmers covered under the scheme for the kharif season alone between 2014 and 2017 was 56.52% more than the number covered between 2011 and 2014. Whereas the scheme was implemented only from 2016. The efficacy of the much-advertised insurance scheme can be inferred from the reply in the Rajya Sabha on April 7 that out of payable claims of Rs.3,47,413 lakh, only Rs.69,802 lakh had been paid under the PMFBY and under the Restructured Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (RWBCIS), out of payable claims of Rs.79,599 lakh, only Rs.1,570 lakh had been paid since kharif 2016.
3. National Agricultural Market (eNAM): The government claims that more than 400 mandis (markets) have been linked to the portal. The target is to connect 585 mandis with eNAM by March 31, 2018. The objective is to allow farmers the freedom to sell their crops. The government claims that as of May 15, 83.57 lakh tonnes of agricultural produce worth Rs.19,802.98 crore had been transacted through eNAM. While the figures look impressive the reality is that farmers are yet to be allowed to sell at a different mandi, not even in a neighbouring one, through eNAM. The reason is resistance by commission agents as well as lack of proper infrastructure. Who will guarantee that the produce sold by farmers adhere to basic standards if the trader who wants to buy is located 100 kilometres away? What is happening now is that the data of business transacted in a mandi are just being uploaded on the eNAM site, showing it as having taken place through the portal. The government mooted an idea of not allowing sale of produce priced below the minimum support price (MSP) in eNAM was dropped in the wake of opposition which cited it as interference in free market economy. Like MP Govt, Centre could have announced trading below MSP a crime, but administrative backup was missing.
4. Soil Health Card: This has found prominence in terms of the Modi government’s agriculture initiatives. This scheme, launched in a hurry is akin to employing quacks in every village to attend to the medical and health needs of the people without any arrangement for medicines. This long-term project will start producing results after 20 years if implemented seriously and effectively. The government did not have the equipment to test soil conditions on such a huge scale. Nor were trained technicians available. Moreover, farmers do not know what to do after getting the soil health card. Where do they buy the “medicines” to treat the soil? Who will spend the money? Is there a guarantee from the government that their produce will increase? Unless and until these basic questions are addressed, the soil health card scheme will be an utter failure. Gujarat had apparently achieved 100% coverage under the scheme when Modi was the Chief Minister, but did it make any positive impact on the farm economy? The scheme is hardly a novel idea but a continuation of the “apni mitti pahchano” (identify your soil) scheme set in motion by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.
5. Neem-coated urea: Another much-advertised scheme is the use of neem-coated urea, which is, again, a continuation of a UPA scheme, and it has nothing to do with productivity at the farm level. It only checks the industrial use and smuggling of urea. 
6. Price stabilisation fund: The government initiated the Price stabilisation fund in the 2014-15. Budget to protect farmers from market volatility, but the allocation of just Rs.500 crore showed a lack of seriousness and understanding of the problem.

• The contradictions in agriculture policy formulation are stark and visible. On the one hand, the government has been talking about “doubling farm income by 2022” through integrated farming. It has also identified allied activities to be covered under integrated farming, which include poultry, animal husbandry, fisheries and beekeeping, etc. India has been the world’s largest exporter of buffalo meat over the past four years. The ban on slaughterhouses in Uttar Pradesh, the largest exporter-State and then the ban on selling cattle at cattle markets for the purpose of slaughter, and cow vigilantes have made inter-State movement of cows and buffalos literally impossible. On the same basis, the government also discontinued the successful “Kamdhenu scheme” of the previous Samajwadi Party government that had made Uttar Pradesh the top milk producer in the country. Selling unproductive cattle for slaughter is an integral part of dairy farming, which makes it commercially viable. These stringent rules will render dairy farming uneconomical and unsustainable. How can a farmer survive if he or she is asked to rear unproductive cattle and is not allowed to sell them? The impact is visible now in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh where unproductive animals are destroying crops, and the farmer feels helpless. Poultry farming and dairy have not been considered agricultural activities and have been brought under the ambit of the Goods and Services Tax.
• The export-import policies in agriculture trade are working against the interest of farmers. The imposition of a minimum export price to protect the interests of consumers has resulted in a skewed policy paralysis against farmers’ interests. Thankfully, there has been no export ban on any agricultural commodity during the three years of the NDA government. But, at the same time, there have been no concerted efforts to boost it further and this has resulted in negative growth in export of farm commodities.
• The problems in the farm sector are complex, but the solution is simple, and that is bringing about parity of agriculture produce with industrial products and services, the farmer with the economic worker, and farming with other enterprises. 
• The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) had rightly identified the problem as follows: “Price shocks have become frequent. The pressure to meet family expenditure, to meet the necessities of modern life, has been forcing farmers to embrace risky ventures by using borrowed funds. Risks unleashed by market forces and price crash in many cases are leading to agrarian distress and sad situations like farmers’ suicides.” The panel had presented recommendations as well, and like other reports on agriculture, failed to attract the current government’s attention.
• The current nationwide farmers’ agitation after a year of record production and 5.2% growth is a wake-up call for politicians and policymakers to initiate a structural reform so as to provide a “minimum income guarantee” to farmers, like the MGNREGA does with labourers. 
• A loan waiver is only be a temporary measure but necessary to correct past imbalances. But the future needs remunerative and deficiency pricing. Modi government needs to move in on the agricultural sector, as in other areas of governance, beyond empty rhetoric towards clear policy formulations and implementation. Cosmetic rechristening and restructuring of programmes of old governments will not help in this suggested policy course correction. The current situation and its political ramifications also ring a warning bell for the BJP as far as the 2019 general elections are concerned. Among landowners and farmers in agricultural areas, more than 50% had voted for the NDA in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. 

A country can't prosper at the expense its farmers.

My View:

Modi never has any intention of walking the talking. His policy is to promise and forget. He thinks fudging of data, high decibel publicity and rhetoric will work always. Sadly "One can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but one can not fool all of the people all of the times". His doing nothing during three years for farmers is not an accident but intentional. He has no idea about agriculture, problems and aspirations. With opposition in total disarray and ineffective it is only farmers who can bring high flying Modi on to ground.