Tuesday, 31 January 2017

UP Elections ... Who will win?

Despite his dramatics and demagoguery and without any sincerity or honesty, Modi will not be able make BJP win forthcoming UP elections especially without any Chief Ministerial candidate's face. At best BJP could get no more than 100 seats. The effects of demonetization were borne by poor & lower middle class mostly and they will no longer believe Modi's dramas and cheap lies. While middle classes live in dreams that Modi's magic will some how work, a dream is a dream only and never a reality and poorer sections are blessed with intelligence to differentiate friend from a foe. With their livelihoods destroyed or incomes eroded for no fault of theirs, lower classes will surely punish Modi at polls. Mayawati's unpopularity and burden of financial mess she is in, will help SP-Congress combine. On other hand Akhilesh Yadav's graph is reasonably good after his hands down success in inner party struggle, and with Congress vote share of about 10% will easily win majority seats or even 2/3rd seats. The opinion polls projecting BJP's hands down victory are just to please Modi the dictator  but not the truthful picture. While Modi tells lies to people, his chamchas will surely tell him lies but not the truth. Sensing this danger, Modi unveiled 'Ram Mandir' construction now which was forgotten by BJP long ago and was never in Modi's agenda and people will find no reason to believe it, with Modi's track record of blatant lies. The truth is that none of the BJP candidates are sure of their winning as well.

Subsequent to his glamorous 2014 victory, Modi stooped down in his character and personality to establish his one man authority by liquidating all his seniors successfully has dis-empowered his second rung leaders. Surrounded by coterie, Modi is living in a fools paradise with complete disconnect from society, and is thinking that whatever are his thoughts, void of substance, are good for nation and see the result of disastrous demonetization that dented his ability as leader of the nation. People will see no reason to vote for him or BJP not knowing who will be his proxy to become CM. The leader in Lucknow (Akhilesh) will have greater chance of victory than the leader from New Delhi (Modi).

Modi's debacle in UP and Punjab elections will ignite chain reaction and Modi gets entangled in more and more failures and become helpless and ineffective. In run up to 2019 general elections, Modi will face stiff opposition within BJP and outside parties and with faded charisma will lose general election and 'kichidi' of several parties will form government. After some time, the 'kichidi' government will fall apart plunging nation into chaos. Modi's reckless adventures, nation will pay dearly.
Mistakes, usually are very expensive and many times life changing.

These are my personal conclusions based on information & analysis only.

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