With majority eluding in 2019, BJP has to accommodate allies

As things stand at the moment, it is unlikely for BJP to get simple majority in 2019 elections but will retain the position of the single largest party. Assuming that large parts of the opposition remain together, BJP may hold on to at best 210 seats in the Lok Sabha. This would bring the BJP to the size of the Congress in the last UPA government. 

• Regional parties that are not currently in it but have been at one time, like some of the Tamilian parties, may join in. Which were once there but have become opponents (TDP, BJD etc.) could join again or remain neutral. Therefore, even if the BJP loses 70 or 80 seats, it should still be possible for the party to return to power.
• This will be an entirely new situation for Modi, who became the chief minister of Gujarat without having fought a single election. He has always led a majority government. A few months into his term, Gujarat burst into flames.
• Modi's only experience is as a CM in heading government where he controlled the full majority and often a two-thirds one. Old leaders were sidelined. New loyal faces were brought in. Modi picked and chose his Cabinet and dominated by holding all the key portfolios.
• Amit Shah, the second most powerful leader in the country today, was not given cabinet rank and was kept as MoS in the decade he served under Modi in Gujarat.
• Modi’s brilliant campaign of 2014 then produced a similar situation in Delhi and he was the undisputed leader of a party that had previously had some divisions but was always more disciplined than the Congress. Old leaders like LK Advani and MM Joshi were shunted out. Others like Sushma Swaraj had to submit. The party is seen as a big happy family today but it is not. BJP also has many who are capable of doing more but are being deliberately held back. With BJP having less than 210 seats, these individuals & regional leaders will assert themselves in a way that they are not doing now. 

It will be fascinating to see how Modi, for the first time in his political life without a majority, will manage the ambitions and the conflicts. At 210 seats, the position of the PM will be like that of Manmohan Singh. He was wrongly seen as weak, rather than the position of a man whose allies have a veto on his actions. There is no defence against such allies except for martyrdom. One can sacrifice the government, or one’s position, and move on. But if one wants to lead in a government where the majority is missing, then allies will have to be accommodated. This is something which Modi never did. Running a minority government requires flexibility and the ability to swallow humiliation. Allies will make sure that their hold is made public and this will mean getting the government to bend a few times. It will be fascinating to see how Modi manages this, particularly for those who have observed the meteoric trajectory of his career. Minority governments and khichdi coalitions has not hampered India’s economic and social growth. Those who fear a minority government or a hamstrung BJP should not despair. Coalitions are not evil. What will be instructive will be to see how Modi manages one.

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Modi & Amit Shah duo would like to sit in opposition and allow a 'kichdi' coalition take charge and collapse with its own contradictions in an year or two and win back in mid term polls emulating fall of Janata Party and return of Indira Gandhi in 1980. Although not easier, RSS have given clear direction that it would like Modi to pave way to more acceptable person like Nitin Gadkari to lead BJP lead NDA government. Easing out Modi & Shah is a big challenge for RSS and softliners. 

BJP in AP - dilemma is suicidal

1. During the course of AP Reorganization Bill, BJP cooperated with Congress totally, ignoring the assurance given by LK Advani that unjust act will not be allowed to go through.
2. Subsequently it was BJP's Venkaiah Naidu and Arun Jaitley who coined "Special Category Status" for AP for a period of 10 years which Congress had reduced to 5 years as promise outside the bill & Act.
3. BJP admitted TDP into its NDA fold during 2014 elections (keeping aside the  personal animosity of Modi against Chandrababu Naidu during the period of Gujarat Riots 2002 etc.) with the sole objective of grabbing power and absolute majority for BJP was highly uncertain.
4. Modi during election campaign has made umpteen promises to residual AP many more beyond the AP Reorganization Act which are still reverberating in the ears of AP people.
5. BJP's Hari Babu could win Visakhapatnam LS seat with Vizag Railway Zone as his top most item during campaign.
6. Modi as PM has completely ignored not only his promises but also center's obligations to assist AP for its development, Polavaram project, new capital construction and so on and released minuscule amounts during the past 4 years. At this rate fulfilling promises and obligations would take 50-100 years.
7. So many things were said during the past 4 years, but people of AP feel totally let down by BJP, much worse than by Congress during 2014. Modi came out in his true colors and people of AP has lost faith in him and BJP whatsoever and if polls were held today BJP may not get even 1% votes, worse than Congress would get. Having cooperated with BJP for Jagan to come out of his CBI & ED corruption cases, YSRCP's vote base has deteriorated significantly. Pawan Kalyan with his confusing stances since an year and suddenly taking U-turn and started cooperating with BJP for undisclosed reasons too has lost his charm & credibility.
8. Today's opinion poll results in social media, even though not very authentic, but does reflect reality. TDP's popular support, with NOTA excluded, is about 60% with its only rival YSRCP at less than 20%, Pawan Kalyan's Janasena at 15% and Congress, BJP & others at 5%.
   
   
9. In real polls next year with large rural population included, popular support to TDP may very well exceed 65%. 

BJP committed suicide in AP with Modi's arrogance at its peak. With North & West uncertain, South and East in the hands of popular regional parties, BJP/NDA's 2019 tally may not exceed 100/150, with most allies already exited NDA. Modi saddled with negatives like economic destruction, agrarian distress, unemployment and so on, has no achievements to present to people and blaming Congress etc even after 5 years of being in power will not yield any benefit to him. Most BJP-Modi fans are openly talking that Congress was better with all its corruption and scams. While Central Government has never ever revealed complete truths to nation in the past, but it has also refrained from blatant lies. But Modi's administration has crossed all limits of decency and hurls at blatant lies at the fall of hat bringing down its own credibility. Today, Modi has more enemies inside BJP than outside. BJP leaders in AP are scared of meeting public and are confining themselves to press meets now and then. Their briefings are limited to reproduction of what BJP says in Delhi. Even a BJP MP and an Ex BJP Minister who are reluctant to carry the burden of BJP and being friends of Chandrababu Naidu are likely to join TDP before 2019 elections. 

Ever since 1977, non-congress parties has been proving time and again that they are worthy to sit in opposition benches only and squandered away every opportunity given to them with their shortsightedness, strongheadedness, insufficient vision to rule a diverse nation like India.

Manmohan Singh is the biggest success in PM's office!

Statistics can often be stranger than fiction.

• How shall we define ‘political success’? By the fact of ‘re-election to the office’.
• The ‘biggest’ political success can be defined as re-election to office by the ‘largest increase in mandate’.

If a politician gets re-elected with the largest increase in his mandate, that should, incontrovertibly, allow him to claim the mantle of 'being the most successful'.

Who can claim to be India’s most successful prime minister?

1. Jawaharlal Nehru - Although he got re-elected more than once, he did not appreciably increase his (already awesome) mandate over his respective previous tenures.
2. Indira Gandhi - She got re-elected after she cut short her tenure in 1971, but added only 36% (from 259 in 1967 to 352 seats) to her previous mandate.
3. Atal Bihari Vajpayee - He got re-elected in 1999, but the BJP’s numbers in parliament hardly budged.
4. Manmohan Singh - He got re-elected in 2009 by increasing his previous mandate of 2004 by a gravity-defying 45% (from 141 to 206 seats).

Manmohan Singh, widely described as India’s weakest prime minister, but who, on cold quantitative statistics, can justifiably claim to be the biggest success in that office! 

The spectacular Lok Sabha polls of 2009

• Congress swept urban areas. (7 out of 7 in Delhi and 5 out the 5 it contested in Mumbai)
• With 21 seats, Congress was the second-largest party in Uttar Pradesh after SP(23) and ahead of BSP(20) and more than double of BJP’s tally of 10. 
• Both the contending alliances, UPA and BJP, had declared prime ministerial candidates – Manmohan Singh and LK Advani .
• The communists collapsed from 59 seats to 24.
• Obvious analyses for the Congress’ amazing re-election in 2009 was (i) the three continuous years of 9% -plus GDP growth, (ii) farm loan waiver just before the voting and (iii) people simply loved Manmohan Singh’s act of political defiance over the Indo-U.S. Nuclear Deal. They saw in him a status quo defying politician who could herald change on a massive scale.
• Very few understood, or cared, about the nuclear nuance. What they latched on to was Singh’s ability to stand up to blackmail in the pursuit of modernity and change.
• In July 2008 left coalition partners saw red over the Indo-U.S. Nuclear Agreement, and withdrew support in parliament, pushing the government into a minority. He sought a vote of confidence in parliament for his minority government. Some deft political management saw the Congress get new allies on board supported the government. When the vote was counted Singh had won 275-256. His beaming face and exultant V wave became Singh’s political signature for the 2009 polls; across the country, he was feted as ‘Singh is King’.
• Congress misread its mandate and harked back to the stasis of garibi hatao (poverty) politics, handing a neat walk-over to Narendra Modi in 2014, who instinctively understood the political message of 2009 better than the victors themselves.

We will vote you in, provided you can deliver real and discontinuous change to us. We were promised this in 2009, and again in 2014. But we were let down by both Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi. So for 2019, please go to your drawing boards and figure it out!

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Modi insult Advani, a national shame

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Tripura on Friday March 09, 2018 to take part in the oath-taking ceremony of Biplab Deb, who was has been sworn as the state's new chief minister. Narendra Modi and several other senior BJP leaders including LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, party president Amit Shah had participated in the swearing-in ceremony of Biplab Deb as Tripura Chief Minister. As greeted by everyone on the stage, PM Modi responded to them individually. However, when LK Advani greeted him, PM Modi snubbed him without responding to his greetings. The video of Modi snubbing Advani has received flak from netizens who rebuked Modi's head-strong attitude. Many Twitterati recalled how Modi had traveled with Advani as his assistant carrying Advani's microphone.

• Had Modi intended to really insult and humiliate LKAdvani, he would not have invited him in the first place.
• It was Advani who made Modi, not even an MLA, chief minister of Gujarat. How Modi manipulated Advani to pull down Keshubhai Patel is all together a different story.
• BJP won only two Lok Sabha seats in the elections of 1984, in the aftermath of assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1983 and in the resultant sympathy wave BJP was washed away. 
• It was Advani's Rath Yatra of 1990 that helped BJP win 120 seats in 1991 general elections. Later in 1996 elections BJP won 161 seats and in 1998 midterm elections it won 182 seats to form NDA govt headed by AB Vajpayee.

• Riding on the popularity after Rath Yatra, in 1996 he could have got chance to become PM but he got his senior Vajpayee's name for leadership. He was rightful claimant for the position for building the party but gave up. Vajpayee was only a face of the party, Advani was brain and real organisation man.
• In 2002, when PM AB Vajpayee had prepared the ground for removal of Modi, seen as presiding over the worst communal riots the country, it was Advani who saved the day for Modi. Vajpayee, who had asserted that Modi should adhere to “raj dharma”, bowed to Advani's pressure.

It is clear the future of all parties lies temporarily in coalitions. Coalitions demand consensus, adjustments, the fine art of political management and statesmanship. It is clear that Mr. Modi is not a carrier of such values. It is also clear that the BJP is a graceless party.

Once you get past charm, good looks, intelligence and sense of humour, 

it is modesty that stands out.

Culture of a person, society or the country
is the way they treat their women, disabled, aged and weaker sections.

Pranaam ka parinaam Aashirwaad ... Mahabharat

Modi insults Advani at BJP CM swearing in ceremony at Agartala 

It is a matter of national shame that our prime minister, Narendra Modi, is a manner less and culture less person who insults 90 year old man, LK Advani, who was also Modi's mentor and protector until yesterday on a public platform at Agartala. India's future is unsafe in the hands of this culture-less and ill educated person thy name Narendra Modi.

A comfortable old age is the reward of a well-spent youth

The excesses of our youth, are drafts upon our old age, 

payable with interest, about thirty years after date ... CC Colton

The Supreme Court's directive to complete the conspiracy trial against BJP leaders accused of conspiracy to demolish the Babri Masjid could mean the deserved denouement of Lal Krishna Advani's career. Advani's career was built on Babri Masjid, on the saugandh that a Ram Mandir would be built in its place and nowhere else. If Advani gets indicted for the demolition of the structure in Ayodhya, life would have come full circle for him.

There shouldn't be an iota of doubt that Advani, now 89 years, was the architect of the movement that led to the demolition of the disputed mosque on Dec 6, 1992. His rath yatras led to mass hysteria that mobilised thousands of youth for the sectarian movement. It is for the courts to decide if Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Kalyan Singh and other BJP leaders accused in the case actually conspired to get the structure razed or not. But, none of them can escape the moral and political responsibility of their failure to control the monster they unleashed on India and in Ayodhya.

Advani has always denied that he was aware of plans to forcibly demolish the structure. He has claimed that the sight of lumpen kar sevaks pulling the structure brought tears to his eyes. Other versions suggest that they are in fact tears of joy when their conspiracy came to fruition on Dec 6, 1992. Advani played up the kamandal card ruthlessly throughout the tumultuous period between 1989 and 1992. He was single-handedly responsible for taking the BJP from 2 seats in 1984 to 117 in 1991 and his ambition to become the prime minister is clear.

For the BJP, the SC order could be a blessing in disguise. To the party it could mean an opportunity to keep the Hindutva pot boiling and serving the Ram Mandir issue hot in the 2019 elections. The trial is bound to get a lot of attention and in the end turn out a PR heist for the Hindutva brigade. In the dusk of his life, he could become the rath on which his party could ride to the next electoral victory. Just that, like in the 90s, he might not be the beneficiary of his final yatra, either to jail (if he is indicted) or to freedom (if he is found not guilty). Wouldn't that be adequate punishment for Advani's karma that led to the bloodshed every time he roared: Saugandh Ram ki khaate hain, mandir wahin banayenge?

A comfortable old age is the reward of a well-spent youth ... Maurice Chevalier

My View:
The fact that BJP etc have given written assurances that they would not demolish Babri Masjid for obtaining permission to conclude 'Rath Yatra' in Ayodhya and failed is one aspect. The other aspect is that gigantic structure demolition and removing debris using construction equipment would have taken few days where as 'Kar Sevaks' using hand tools only have demolished the structure, cleared debris and installed make shift 'Ram Mandir' in flat 6 hours, without any causalities, indicates the well designed, equipped and rehearsaled conspiracy, with secrecy well maintained, speaks volumes about the criminality of the issue for which LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti, Kalyan Singh and other BJP leaders can't be absolved of their crime and must be punished. However after 25 years, mobilising witnesses for their trial is no easy task for CBI and with Modi & BJP in power at Centre and also in UP, it is quite possible that the trial will end up as a farce. However Advani will go down in history as destroyer of Babri Masjid and pushing secularism into peril and paving way for Hindutva, much to the discomfort of minorities.

Post independence in India, Hindu population is growing arithmetically where as Muslim population is growing geometrically and by 2051/61 Muslim population will surpass Hindu population in India. Then what?

Babri case: SC restores conspiracy charges against Advani etc

Babri Masjid being demolished by Kar Sevaks on Dec 6, 1992

Apr 19, 2017:  LK Advani and other top leaders of the BJP including Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharti will be tried for criminal conspiracy in the demolition of the 16th­ century Babri Masjid, the Supreme Court ruled today, agreeing with a request from the Central Bureau of Investigation or CBI in its case over the razing of the disputed mosque on December 6, 1992. The incident had sparked deadly riots across India that killed around 2,000 people. "We have allowed the CBI appeal against the Allahabad High Court judgement with certain directions," a bench comprising Justices PC Ghose and RF Nariman said.

Here are the top 10 points from the judgement in the Babri Masjid demolition case:

1. CBI's appeal in Babri mosque demolition case allowed, criminal conspiracy charge against LK Advani and other BJP leaders restored.
2. Two separate cases (in Lucknow and Raebareli) against LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Uma Bharti and unknown 'kar sevaks' in will be brought together in one trial.
3. The trial court in Lucknow must complete the hearing in two years and deliver a verdict.
4. Kalyan Singh (who was the chief minister of UP in 1992) enjoys constitutional immunity as Rajasthan Governor and can be tried only after he leaves office.
5. Lucknow court should conduct trial in these cases on a day­to­day basis.
6. No party shall be granted adjournments without the sessions judge being satisfied of the reasons for it.
7. CBI will have to ensure that at least one prosecution witness appears in trial court for recording of testimony.
8. Trial judge hearing the Babri mosque case shall not be transferred till the judgement is delivered.
9. Lucknow trial court to commence proceedings in four weeks and there will be no 'de novo' (fresh) trial.
10. Order should be followed in letter and spirit and parties involved have the liberty to approach the top court if its directions are not followed.

Here is the timeline to the dispute

Justice delayed is justice denied ... William E. Gladstone

Justice delayed will not only be justice denied, 

it will be the Rule of law destroyed ... Soli Sorabjee

My View:

There is no question that Ram Janmabhoomi is one of the highest sentiment for 84% Hindus in India, without exception. Muslims should have voluntarily given away the never used Masjid for Hindus for building Ram Temple, as gesture of good will. In return they could have extracted certain concessions, but both groups never came to negotiating table. Courts could not give its judgement because that piece of land of Babri Masjid is in possession of Babri Masjid Trust and at the same time Hindus sentimental right can't be undermined but can't be given away to Hindus unless Muslims agree to it. The dispute is dated back to 1853/1859. In 1992 Advani leading thousands of BJP+ Kar Sevaks, purely for political gains is only to counter VP Singh's Mandal card, resulting in demolition of Babri Masjid is patently illegal, undemocratic and unconstitutional and ruptures secular fabric of the nation. All culprits who ever have conspired and/or participated in demolition must be booked and punished as per laws of the land. Topping the list are LK Advani, MM Joshi, Uma Bharathi, Kalyan Singh and many more. At least after 25 years, SC ordered these culprits stand trial with 2 years deadline. Unless rule of the law is respected, we stand to lose democratic & secular character of our constitution.

However, SC has dealt a deadly blow to BJP & its associates stunning the master manipulator Modi affirming judicial independence and upholding rule of law. Any shame left, Uma Bharti and Kalyan Singh must resign their Minister & Governor positions and face criminal charges in their individual capacity. Ironically, Modi (with his CBI) has to prosecute his own gurus & compatriots of conspiracy & criminal charges. Landed in unenviable spot, Modi, who lectures on every issue, will maintain stoic silence on this matter.

Yogi Adityanath is CM of UP, but ...

Yogi Adityanath elected as BJP LP leader and ascending to CM of UP, after BJP's remarkable victory in 2017 assembly elections is fine but definitely relegates Muslims of UP as second rated citizens with all their civil rights more or less stripped off.

Modi's master plan of not announcing CM candidate in advance has attracted gullible young & unorthodox Muslim voters vote for development plank but what they got is 'hardcore anti-Muslim' Hindu fanatic as their Chief Minister. With anoyher bigger fanatic Modi as PM and absolute majorities in UP, LS and RS very soon, constructing Ram Mandir at Babri Majid demolition site is a certainty in next 1-2 years. While there is no disputing that sooner or later Ram Mandir construction will happen, the question is that the same should happen after convincing Muslim community and their religious leaders. Now only process of law will be followed by BJP but not with the consent of Muslims of UP/India. There are 4 crore Muslims in UP (19%) and ~17 crore Muslims (14%) in India and alienating them makes no sense. In coming months, if LK Advani becomes President, rumored as gift by Modi for appointing him as Gujarat CM in 2001, and protecting him during Gujarat riots 2002 etc, RSS hardcore activists as Prez, PM & UP CM construction of Ram Mandir becomes unstoppable whether Muslim community agrees or not.

Few criminal cases are pending against Yogi Adityanath for his anti-Muslim militant activities and his becoming CM, as per my sense, is improper and drives minorities towards helplessness. The least he should have done is to get these cases closed exonerating him prior to ascending to powerful constitutional positions.

Modi's India will very soon become an "Hindu Nation" shedding its secular character preserved so far and minorities, especially Muslims, will have to forget their legitimate rights and get habituated to lead second rate citizen life.

Alienating 20% minorities, BJP UP government will never get legitimacy to rule the state. It remains to be seen if India’s democracy can withstand the religious and fascist forces that seem to reign supreme now.

Muslims suffering discrimination in India is a hard fact.

Muslim leaders lacked sense to foresee the future and should have magnanimously volunteered agreeing for Ram Mandir construction and extracted guarantees for preservation of other disputed Masjids across nation, when they had upper hand on these issues.