With majority eluding in 2019, BJP has to accommodate allies

As things stand at the moment, it is unlikely for BJP to get simple majority in 2019 elections but will retain the position of the single largest party. Assuming that large parts of the opposition remain together, BJP may hold on to at best 210 seats in the Lok Sabha. This would bring the BJP to the size of the Congress in the last UPA government. 

• Regional parties that are not currently in it but have been at one time, like some of the Tamilian parties, may join in. Which were once there but have become opponents (TDP, BJD etc.) could join again or remain neutral. Therefore, even if the BJP loses 70 or 80 seats, it should still be possible for the party to return to power.
• This will be an entirely new situation for Modi, who became the chief minister of Gujarat without having fought a single election. He has always led a majority government. A few months into his term, Gujarat burst into flames.
• Modi's only experience is as a CM in heading government where he controlled the full majority and often a two-thirds one. Old leaders were sidelined. New loyal faces were brought in. Modi picked and chose his Cabinet and dominated by holding all the key portfolios.
• Amit Shah, the second most powerful leader in the country today, was not given cabinet rank and was kept as MoS in the decade he served under Modi in Gujarat.
• Modi’s brilliant campaign of 2014 then produced a similar situation in Delhi and he was the undisputed leader of a party that had previously had some divisions but was always more disciplined than the Congress. Old leaders like LK Advani and MM Joshi were shunted out. Others like Sushma Swaraj had to submit. The party is seen as a big happy family today but it is not. BJP also has many who are capable of doing more but are being deliberately held back. With BJP having less than 210 seats, these individuals & regional leaders will assert themselves in a way that they are not doing now. 

It will be fascinating to see how Modi, for the first time in his political life without a majority, will manage the ambitions and the conflicts. At 210 seats, the position of the PM will be like that of Manmohan Singh. He was wrongly seen as weak, rather than the position of a man whose allies have a veto on his actions. There is no defence against such allies except for martyrdom. One can sacrifice the government, or one’s position, and move on. But if one wants to lead in a government where the majority is missing, then allies will have to be accommodated. This is something which Modi never did. Running a minority government requires flexibility and the ability to swallow humiliation. Allies will make sure that their hold is made public and this will mean getting the government to bend a few times. It will be fascinating to see how Modi manages this, particularly for those who have observed the meteoric trajectory of his career. Minority governments and khichdi coalitions has not hampered India’s economic and social growth. Those who fear a minority government or a hamstrung BJP should not despair. Coalitions are not evil. What will be instructive will be to see how Modi manages one.

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Modi & Amit Shah duo would like to sit in opposition and allow a 'kichdi' coalition take charge and collapse with its own contradictions in an year or two and win back in mid term polls emulating fall of Janata Party and return of Indira Gandhi in 1980. Although not easier, RSS have given clear direction that it would like Modi to pave way to more acceptable person like Nitin Gadkari to lead BJP lead NDA government. Easing out Modi & Shah is a big challenge for RSS and softliners. 

Nitin Gadkari speaks out

The Union Minister for Road Transport & Highways, Shipping and Water Resources, Mr.Nitin Gadkari, talks about a wide range of issues from the state of the economy to the mood of the nation, the Kashmir crisis, the prime minister’s role in the cabinet, the much-anticipated 2019 elections, and his chances at being prime minister.

• Looking back at the BJP’s ‘acche din’ pitch before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Gadkari said that what was considered “good times” may vary from person to person. The expectation of people is always increasing.
• When asked about the general impression that the PM Modi dominating the Cabinet, Gadkari labelled them rumours, with “no proof, relevance or ground realities.” PM Modi allows everyone to speak. Modi has courage. He listens to everyone. 
• On his government achieving almost the same or less than the UPA government led by Dr Manmohan Singh, Gadkari pointed to a few parameters on which India could perform better. He added that the expectation from his government in terms of industrial sector was more. 
• PM Modi promised the creation of 10 million jobs every year, before he assumed office. However, over the last four years, the hunger for jobs has only increased. While some government bodies like the NITI Aayog claim that jobs have been created, pink papers say otherwise. Gadkari stressed that job creation was important for his government, he also said that the growing population increased the demand for jobs.
• When asked if he will accept that Kashmir was one of the BJP government’s most worrying problems, Gadkari said that their fight was against the Pakistanis and not Kashmiris. It is a proxy war with Pakistan. I am not making Kashmiris responsible for that. It is the import of terrorism, terrorists and terrorist organisations that are constantly creating problems. And it is a fight with Pakistan, not with Kashmiris.
• When asked why the PM did not speak out in support of Sushma Swaraj, or when Gauri Lankesh was murdered, Gadkari backed Modi, saying that he did not want to “play politics.” Home Minister Rajnath Singh supports Sushma ji. Ex-president Nitin Gadkari supports Sushma Swaraj. The Prime Minister is equally in support of Sushma Ji. When we speak we are representatives of the Prime Minister.
• When asked about the possibility of Gadkari himself becoming the prime ministerial candidate if the BJP does not get a majority, as he is “more acceptable to the allies”, Gadkari said: I have got way more than I deserved. I do not belong to any race. I follow the party’s ideology. I am happy as a minister. I do not wish to be a candidate. I am fully confident that BJP will get majority. Narendra Modi will be prime minister. 

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As things stand today, only mismanagement by opposition parties could make NDA win 2019 general elections. As such BJP's defeat is a foregone conclusion, but there is a meek possibility of NDA winning with BJP falling short of majority which may cause embarrassment to Modi in holding the seat of PM. In order to ensure continued support of NDA allies, Modi stepping down and Nitin Gadkari becoming PM is also widely debated as a possibility. The simple reason is that his ministry is the best performing ministry in NDA government consistently.

Modi's cabinet reshuffle

• In today's Modi's cabinet reshuffle includes 9 new ministers inducted, dropping 6 ministers citing under performance or age & health and 3 existing vacancies.
• The talk is that Dattatreya after resigning complained to RSS chief Mohan Bhagawat on telephone. Bhagawat seems to be unhappy with Modi for easing out RSS pracharaks from cabinet and including ex-officials.
• Earlier Uma Bharti refused to resign on poor performance grounds and suggested PM could dismiss her. And Modi retained her.
• Nitin Gadkari declined Railways portfolio, where Suresh Prabhu offered to quit after a series of accidents and deaths.
• It was BJP's reshuffle in NDA cabinet while allies in the cabinet remain untouched.
• It was a blind reshuffle and both performers and under performers getting their portfolios changed.
• For Nirmala Sitharaman, who held the independent charge of the commerce and industry ministry elevated to Cabinet rank and inducted into the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) by virtue of her appointment as the Union defence minister. 
• Sitharaman is technically the second women to hold the defence portfolio, but for former prime minister Indira Gandhi, defence was an additional charge. Sitharaman is India's first full-time woman defence minister.
• Nirmala Sitharaman joined the BJP in 2006 and was a part of a team of six spokespersons headed by Ravi Shankar Prasad, for BJP prior to joining Narendra Modi's ministry in May 2014. It was during her stint at National Commission for Women between 2003-05 that she came in contact with Sushma Swaraj who sounded Nirmala out for a role in BJP. Her mother-in-law was a Congress MLA in Andhra Pradesh, while her father-in-law was a Minister in the Andhra Pradesh Congress Govt in 1970s.
• Suresh Prabhu offering to quit Railway Ministry on moral grounds after a spate of train accidents and deaths but sticking on with change of portfolio is deeply immoral.
• Not but the least, clearly BJP lacks talented people to hole ministerial portfolios. 

If performance is the criterion for retaining ministerial positions, the first man to exit would have been Modi him self who brought booming economy to its pre-2014 levels, worst unemployment levels, deeply distressed agriculture etc which costed UPA the power in 2014. Along with him would have been FM Arun Jaitley. In the recent past UP CM Yogi Adityanath should have taken moral responsibility for death of 300 children in Gorakhpur hospital due to negligence & corruption and Haryana CM ML Khattar for mismanaging riots consequent to Dera Baba Ram Rahim Singh's conviction leading to at least 30 deaths and large scale property destruction. Modi would have done a wonderful thing by bringing Raghu Ram Rajan as Finance Minister. Alas no great things by small men. And rules are meant for others to follow, not for self.