Nitish Kumar ... No where to go

Nitish Kumar is a nowhere man now and he will do another somersault because the BJP and Shah are cannibalising him and without an ally he is negligible. He will still prefer to walk out, go it alone and become a martyr allying with the winner of 2019 ... says a senior JDU leader.

• Nitish Kumar has a soul which troubles him only when he has political power at stake. From being a contender for the PM's office to now being reduced to Shah’s collateral damage it has been a sharp and steep fall for Nitish Kumar.
• Yesterday’s loss of the Jokihat seat to the ally RJD, he betrayed was the latest in the series of reverses Nitish Kumar has faced after he joined hands with erstwhile bête noire Narendra Modi. 
• The latest in the serial snubs is Union Minister, Nitin Gadkari publicly turning down his demand for special status for Bihar, Nitish Kumar has had to repeatedly swallow his pride.
• Nitish Kumar’s humiliation at the hands of the Modi and Shah duo has a larger lesson to all the NDA allies of BJP. AP Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu reportedly told senior Congress leaders that he does not want to become Nitish Kumar in the hands of the BJP.
• Even Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo who ended the longest running alliance of the BJP breaking ties has privately mocked Nitish Kumar’s plight. 
• The biggest lesson is how dangerous the BJP under Shah and Modi has become to its partners, that the Akali Dal lost its traditional seat it had retained for 20 years to the Congress in the by-polls yesterday, must be realizing. 
• Shah’s arrogant treatment of Nitish Kumar, his repeated insults, his gobbling up of the JDU’s political space and the recent warning that the BJP will not make any concessions in seat sharing have all been observed by the fence-sitting opposition leaders. Amit Shah's plans to cut Nitish Kumar and JDU down to size and grab more Lok Sabha seats is an open secret in Bihar. So much so that Nitish Kumar who had used Rahul Gandhi as a scapegoat to walk out of the alliance is now sending feelers to the Congress to bail him out.
• Nitish Kumar has also reached out to “friend” West Bengal CM Mamta Banerjee, who was his colleague in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Much to his consternation Banerjee bluntly told him “Modi is no Vajpayee. He will eat you up alive”.
• Left with no options, Nitish Kumar might break all alliances and is likely to go "Solo" in 2019 General elections, like Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo. Amit Shah is likely to eat humble pie in front of Thackeray as Maharashtra accounts for the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats (48), but Nitish Kumar will be given no quarter. But it is unlikely that Thackeray will give in to Shah’s sweet talk but Nitish Kumar is desperate for any BJP deal.
• Navin Patnaik, Odisha CM has now reached out to the leaders of the united opposition after seeing how the BJP treats allies. Patnaik already had a quiet meeting with Sonia Gandhi. Naveen Patnaik is likely to make some joint moves with the united opposition as Rahul Gandhi is in touch with him. Patnaik realises the writing on the wall that the Modi wave is over and hence sitting on the fence is no longer a feasible option.
• Shah is facing allies bleed away from him due to his shortsighted pursuit of winning every electoral battle that has compelled divided opposition to get united for survival. 
• Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, is acting as a catalyst of opposition unity having brought together opposite community leaders Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel in Gujarat and giving BJP a fight and fright.
• The Congress's new MPCC chief Kamalnath is negotiating with Mayawati for an alliance in MP which would add at least another 4-6% Dalit votes. The Congress is committed to reaching out and creating a rainbow opposition coalition across the country. And uneasy Shah has put in CBI on the job of breaking the BSP away.
• But as the Air Asia case registered against Ajit Singh on the eve of the Kairana result showed that vendetta politics of Modi and Shah have diminishing returns. The leaders being targeted are more determined to band together. Sharad Pawar of the NCP, who Modi hailed as his political guru, has also ended his tacit understanding with Modi and is now a prime mover of the united opposition.

However hard Amit Shah tries, it seems that he is unable to split and divide the opposition. The BJP’s  unprincipled power grabs are now working against it. Sources close to Nitish Kumar says that he thought Modi was here to stay. The same Nitish Kumar now privately says that Modi was an accidental PM. A bubble on a wave which will burst in the big fight of 2019. 

Nitish Kumar’s somersault has now become a statutory warning to the united opposition - ally with the BJP at your risk.

What to do with your money right now?

If you are just retired and with plenty of cash, retirement benefits, naturally you will have a dilemma what do with the money safely with maximum returns, liquidity and with minimum income tax liability. While equities and mutual funds seems to get you good returns, never go by television recommendations unless you have in depth knowledge of what you are set up to do.

• Never lose money. Focus on capital preservation strategies.
• Remember, risk exists every where. 
• Spread your money across asset classes; debts, equities, mutual funds, real estate and gold. 
• Retain certain amount of cash both at home and in bank to manage unforeseen situations.
• Make sure to have enough life, accident and health insurance cover for you & family.
• Stay away from hyped markets. That would be the right time to exit.
• Avoid cryptocurrencies unless you are tech savvy, prepared to gamble and lose.
• Don't lend money to friends & relatives. You may end up losing money and also relationships.

INSURANCE

• Insurance is not investment. It is the price you pay for some kind of protection of your family against contingencies of unforeseen events like death / accidental death / hospitalisation shocks. 
• Do take appropriate life, personal accident and mediclaim policies for self and family.
• Don't buy equity-linked insurance plans (ULIPs). Your money goes to the agent and the insurer and not into your investments. They are losing propositions.
• Buy either term policies (these are the cheapest) or buy money-back schemes, which are also cheap but you get your money back. Read the fine print carefully rather than trust an agent's verbal assurances.

80C INVESTMENTS

• Investments in PPF, NSCs, 5 year Bank deposits, NPS etc. may save you on income tax liabilities, But be aware of 5+ year lock in periods.

EQUITIES

• The last two years equities have seen terrific returns from the stock market. Is the economy booming? No, but a lot of investors hope that it will start growing faster. 
• The World Bank and other institutions forecast that growth should accelerate in 2018-19. Many savvy investors have already entered the stock market on that expectation. 
• As more money has come into the market, it has boosted share prices and created a positive feedback loop where investors have pumped even more money into stocks.
• Despite forecasts, markets could go in either direction.
• Unless you are an active watchful person, on daily basis, with propensity to exit as per strategy, risks are high.
• Index funds have shown persistent growth over years with lower risks. Invest in less risky index funds rather than in risky equities.
• Equities may not get you periodical returns but in long term they are sure get you impressive gains.
• Good to be a equities trader rather than and equities investor.
• Those who have time and inclination to do their own research may invest directly in stocks or via equity mutual funds. The second route is fire-and-forget. Both methods can fetch great returns. Both methods also carry the risk of capital loss.
• May be it is good to stick to mutual funds and commit to systematic investment plans (SIPs) for three years, or longer. These are likely to fetch excellent returns.
• The economy may recover. But uncertainty exists.
• Series of assembly elections and a general election scheduled in the next 15 months. Political uncertainty might cloud short-term returns. What happens if there are apprehensions that the Narendra Modi government will not return?

DEBTS

• Debt comes in many shapes and sizes. Bank fixed deposits are the default option. You can also buy mutual funds dealing in different types of debt. In addition, you can buy corporate debentures, or subscribe to corporate fixed deposits.
• Interest rates rise when inflation rises. If inflation rises, the value of money erodes faster. If interest rates rise, any portfolio of previous debt instruments loses value because that same money invested now could be earning more interest.
• Bank deposits are safest, highly liquid but with low returns. The new FRDI Bill highlights the fact that bank deposits are not guaranteed beyond the limit of Rs 1 lakh. That limit was set in 1993. The limit might get raised to Rs.5 lakhs, prior to the passing of Act. Be informed of this.
• Avoid PSU banks with huge NPA's. Also avoid private banks with low equity, lower reserves and higher NPAs. Any government would be reluctant to take this step, fearing a political backlash. Since many PSU banks are struggling to cope with bad debts bail-ins are now neither impossible, nor illegal.
• Mutual funds exploit changes in interest rates. Safety varies. Mutual funds that focus on corporate debt give much higher returns but take larger risks. It's important to understand that you can lose capital in a debt fund. So understand safety, risks and returns before investing.

REAL ESTATE

• Real estate is entirely local market. The investment is illiquid. Selling may take several months. But returns are impressive. 
• This segment has huge percentage of 'black money' intertwined with 'white money'. 60:40 is the default ratio. Even 80:20 is not uncommon. 
• Booms and busts are cyclical and occur side by side too.
• Sometime legal complications might get your investment locked for several years.
• Apart from politicians, corrupt bureaucrats and unethical businessmen, you may get entangled with mafia and local goons.
• So invest only in legally clear properties. Obtain the help of known advocates and chartered accountants. Remember brokers are not your friends.
• Stay away from hypes.

GOLD

• Gold and precious metals are the age-old hedge against inflation and uncertainty.
• But gold yields no interest and capital appreciation is uncertain.
• Making charges for jewellery add considerably to cost. It's still worth investing as security. 

Neither a borrower nor a lender be ... William Shakespeare

Read the source article

What army is doing in Kashmir?

Army's role is primarily to secure frontiers from external threats and police to maintain internal law & order.

• Kashmir valley's population is over 9 million of which 96% are Muslims. 60% of the Valley’s population is below the age of 30 with shrinking job avenues. 
• Notwithstanding other achievements of Narendra Modi, Kashmir will be the scene of his biggest failure unless a dramatic breakthrough in the near future. Such a feat will justify J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti's belief that only Modi can solve the state's problems.
• The low polling percentage of 7% in last month's Srinagar parliamentary by-poll was a sign of the erosion of popular faith in the electoral process since 2014, when the assembly polls registered 66% voting, a 10% per cent jump from 2008.
• Everyone is feeling choked because the political system has failed to deliver. After PDP tied up with the ultra-nationalist BJP, the space has shrunk even more for the youngsters who have gravitated towards militancy.
• Today, the Army is a part of daily life in Kashmir. New generations of Kashmiris have grown up living next door to military camps while the army too has learnt more about dealing with the Valley. The army lives in the self-belief that it has won the hearts of people in insurgency-hit areas. 
• Kashmir remains the most militarized zone in the world.
• Anywhere between 6.5 lakh to 7.5 lakh [security personnel] are there in Jammu and Kashmir. If you take the Army’s total strength, half of it is there. 
• The ground reality in Kashmir is that in 2013, 31 local youths joined militancy, the number for 2015 (till Sept) jumped to 66, according to police records.
• In Kashmir, security forces are regularly targeted by militants to intimidate people and discourage local youngsters from joining the government forces that have been fighting insurgency that broke out in 1989 and has since killed more than 40,000 people.
• The ratio of police to people is the highest in Kashmir, than any state. 
• It is like a prison-like reality in Kashmir and expect its people to be silent.
• There were only 150 militants in the state last year. Do we need 7 lakh soldiers to fight 150 militants?
• The total number of militants killed in Kashmir since 1990 is 21,000. Of them, only 3,000 were foreign militants.
• If people were told the truth that Kashmiris don’t want to be with India, and the struggle here is sustained by them primarily, and there is very limited external support – the public opinion in India too would change. 
• Not to allow the public opinion to change, campaign about Pakistan-sponsored proxy war are told. Indian electronic media is a part of India’s military strategy in Kashmir.
• The State Human Rights Commission said in an ongoing case that 570 people buried in the three districts in North Kashmir as foreign militants were later identified as local Kashmiris.
• There are at least 8,000 families which claim their members disappeared over the last 25 years. 
• Many Indian soldiers have raped Kashmiris. In the last 25 years, there have been hundreds of women who came forward to file cases of rape. It is very difficult to persuade them to file cases for fear reprisals from the Army. There are also issues of social stigma and non-deliverance of justice. 
• Sexualised and gendered violence cases are about 7,000. This include boys being sodomized, male rapes as well. It would be very difficult to prove a rape. You can hardly call it sex with consent by sex workers, when someone has a gun in his hand and asks a woman to have sex, and she agrees.
• So far there have been no conviction for encounter, rape, custodial killings, disappearances or torture in Kashmir.
• Army using a ‘human shield’ tying a militant in front of Jeep, similar to that of LTTE using children as human shields, and later army justifying and commemorating this action further widens the alienation. This is in gross violation of human rights.
• The utterances of senior BJP leaders are having a direct impact on the ground situation here. Beef was never an issue here and is hardly consumed but after the Haryana CM told Muslims they could live in India provided they stopped eating it, anger is growing and people are fearing the rise of the BJP. Muslims don’t fear death, rather prefer dying with honour rather than living a life of shame under oppression.
• Despite Modi's earlier admonition, the saffron lobby's continuing opposition to inter-faith affairs and the description of Mughal emperors like Babur and Akbar as "invaders", as by UP CM Yogi Adityanath recently recalling the castigation of Muslims as unpatriotic "Babur ki aulad" (children of Babur) during the Ram Janmabhoomi movement further alienates Kashmiris.
• The problem is essentially political. Financial packages announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi are not the balm people need. You cannot throw money at the problem. If you think Modi will come here and announce a package and people will forget, that’s not going to happen.
• The appearance of schoolgirls on the streets to join the teenage boys to throwing stones at the security forces shows that the familial and social norms are breaking down.
• Hemmed in by bunkers, curfews and frequent internet bans, people are searching for dignity and justice. The tragedy is that like in the past over two decades, neither Srinagar nor New Delhi is wising up to the new reality and looking beyond security perspectives.
• The ground beneath Kashmir’s feet is indeed slipping.

My View:
Army can be used to conduct a specific operation in civilian areas similar to that of "Operation Steeplechase" to weed out Naxalites and "Operation Bluestar" to flush out militants from Golden Temple but it is the duty of politicians and police to establish normalcy and maintain law & order. Prolonged presence of Army in large numbers in Kashmir, while weeding out militants inflicts atrocities on civilians, and will only complicate the issue and alienation would be total and irreversible. The only solution is to make Kashmiris feel that they are equal citizens of the nation and engage them politically and economically, otherwise we may very well end up losing Kashmir and for Kashmiris it would be from frying pan to fire.