Who is trying to bring down PM Modi?

The right-wing Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) in India kicked off a three-day conclave in Delhi on Monday by praising the main Opposition Congress party for securing India's independence. It also clarified it did not believe in a Congress-mukt (Congress-free) India but a sarvalok-yukt (all-inclusive) India. It came as a surprise because the RSS' prime minister, Narendra Modi, has spent four years spewing venom against the Congress, its prime ministers and the family that holds the party together. Certainly, the RSS revealed its changed thinking when it invited Congress chief Rahul Gandhi to this conclave. Despite Rahul's surprise hug for Modi in Parliament, better sense prevailed and he spurned the RSS invitation (unlike former president Pranab Mukherjee, who attended an RSS function in Nagpur in June, thinking he was laying the ground for himself to head a coalition government after the 2019 election). And though the RSS is eternally tainted with the assassination of "Mahatma" MK Gandhi in 1948, it has occasionally flirted with the Congress as evidenced by the fact of dozens of RSS men named as culprits in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.

Still it is surprising that with a majority government still in the saddle and about eight months to go before the parliamentary election, the RSS finds it necessary to extend an olive branch to the main opposition party. It cannot be, as the RSS claims, that it is a misunderstood organisation and that this exercise is meant to dispel the wrong notions surrounding it. The RSS thrives on a certain element of mystery and myth given its rigid hierarchy and organisation and its para-military nature. There is only one explanation for the RSS's current behaviour: it has read the writing on the wall that its government is on its way out. Hence it is building bridges with opposition parties, because it fears what may come once Modi is out of power.

That things are not going well for Modi is evident from various other recent developments. NDA allies like Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) have started acting tough. The Bihar chief minister, who till recently was silently facing all-round opprobrium for dumping his electoral partner (the Rashtriya Janata Dal) and hitching his wagon to the BJP, is now demanding his pound of flesh before the next parliamentary election - he does not want just a handful of seats to contest and has formally inducted Prashant Kishor, the data-genius behind Modi's 2014 victory, into his party to ensure it remains the senior partner in any future electoral alliance in Bihar. Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has demanded an early assembly election in which he hopes to do well, and he is least bothered about Modi's pet project of a simultaneous parliamentary and assembly election. Even Ram Vilas Paswan, a dalit leader from Bihar who is reliably a political weathercock, has been talking about leaving Modi's National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The rats are obviously deserting the sinking ship.

The RSS would likely be concerned. In Delhi there is a general expectation that Modi's parliamentary tally will decrease to around 150 seats following the 2019 election, and while that would ordinarily be enough to remove a leader and replace him with someone acceptable to coalition partners (who have been silently licking their wounds of neglect the past four-plus years), the RSS also knows that removing either Modi or party chief Amit Shah will not be easy. Both these gentlemen are apparently willing to sit in opposition and let a coalition government totter about for two to two and a half years before finally collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. Modi fashions himself after iron lady Indira Gandhi, and like her, might bide his time to return to the top post as she did in 1980, after a nearly three-year hiatus.

This does not suit the RSS, which would rather try to retain governance under a different prime minister, heading a coalition that was much like the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government. There are various advantages to this: to consolidate much of the hidden social work and deep changes in the education sector that the rightwing has undertaken since May 2014. Modi has been such a polarising figure that a replacement government would want to first of all undo much of the damage to institutions that he has inflicted, in the name of getting things done, where his will was supreme over any Constitutional nicety or propriety.

First things first, however: the RSS has to save its own skin. There are many political parties who would like to give the RSS cadres a thrashing of their lives. The RSS must be highly conscious of the fact that the atmosphere against it will change drastically once Modi loses power. Hence, the RSS top brass have humbly recounted Congress's contribution of independent India's history, and have extended the peace pipe to Rahul Gandhi. It is a heartening sign for Indian democracy that Rahul has showed the RSS its place - that it does not rule supreme over all Indians, but merely over a sullen part of society, whose achhe din are hopefully soon coming to an end.

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Modi's adventurism

Adventurism is a pejorative term referring to politics or activism that involves reckless and  irresponsible behavior or conduct pursued only in the interest of excitement. Adventurism is defined as an attitude or way of behaving that involves attempting to gain an advantage by doing things that are regarded as foolish or risky. Adventurism is often used as a criticism against some government's policies. Countries pursuing foreign wars of dubious merit or which have little chance of success have often been accused of adventurism by opponents.

• By general consensus, the government was widely seen to have faltered on four major counts. It is accused of failing to tackle the over-hang of demonetization, poor implementation of GST, containing prices and inability to create new jobs. Positive endorsements from the IMF, World Bank, investment bankers and a few contrarian economists were contemptuously dismissed.
• Notwithstanding Rahul Gandhi's assertion that he can fix the problems in six months, macro-economic interventions will take more than a couple of quarters to yield results.
• It has been argued with some merit that many pain points in demonetisation and GST rollout could have been mitigated if the bureaucracy and tax-administration were better prepared and proactive.
• Demonetisation is considered to be the biggest villain. There is no denying that demonetisation had worst affected deep rural, where the banking network is least developed. In the cities, small-towns and "urban" areas, the situation largely settled at a new normal in about eight to twelve weeks.
• There is no disagreement among experts that GST was the mega tax reform that was long overdue. Considering the gargantuan scale of the exercise, it would have been naïve to expect a totally seamless transition. The Opposition had smelt an opportunity for muddying the waters and waylaying the government on GST. They were hoping the turmoil would carry through into the next fiscal year damaging BJP's prospects in 2019.
• Inflation is the only area where Modi government's performance has been the best. This is also largely due to low oil prices for over three years resulting in narrowing of the twin deficits. No magic wand with Modi, it just happened. Nevertheless, credit goes to Modi & Jaitley.
• Very high petrol & diesel prices despite lower crude oil prices and thus depriving consumers the benefit of dynamic pricing is a false step that will become a poll plank against Modi. 
• Without any doubt, job creation remains the most serious of the four weak spots in Modi's portfolio. But there are no quick fixes for it. The Congress and the UPA bought time on it with doles like MNREGA.
• Long-term job creation will come only through the next wave of reforms - especially on the fronts of labour legislation and land acquisition laws. But the government does not have either the time or political capital left for further economic adventures so late into its term. So, jobs will have to wait till 2019 for a real take-off.
• What the government cannot afford anymore are governance boo-boos and fiscal adventurism. 

NDA government's policies and actions are nothing but a divisive, destructive and disruptive propaganda. The country is in the grip of communal politics and there is no contradiction between communalism and development. BJP attempts communalism by uniting the largest group and compelling minorities to join the mainstream as politically junior partners but forgets that we are a nation of diverse cultures, sects and religions and can only stay united with a secular thread of humanity and protection of minorities.  BJP failed in fulfilling most promises made in its election manifesto especially remunerative prices for farm produce. People are disillusioned with their false promises as seen by the recent by-election results held in different parts of the country. General elections are just eight months away and BJP is on perfect slippery slope, due to its own arrogant, audacious and ill conceived adventurous actions.

Nitish Kumar ... No where to go

Nitish Kumar is a nowhere man now and he will do another somersault because the BJP and Shah are cannibalising him and without an ally he is negligible. He will still prefer to walk out, go it alone and become a martyr allying with the winner of 2019 ... says a senior JDU leader.

• Nitish Kumar has a soul which troubles him only when he has political power at stake. From being a contender for the PM's office to now being reduced to Shah’s collateral damage it has been a sharp and steep fall for Nitish Kumar.
• Yesterday’s loss of the Jokihat seat to the ally RJD, he betrayed was the latest in the series of reverses Nitish Kumar has faced after he joined hands with erstwhile bête noire Narendra Modi. 
• The latest in the serial snubs is Union Minister, Nitin Gadkari publicly turning down his demand for special status for Bihar, Nitish Kumar has had to repeatedly swallow his pride.
• Nitish Kumar’s humiliation at the hands of the Modi and Shah duo has a larger lesson to all the NDA allies of BJP. AP Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu reportedly told senior Congress leaders that he does not want to become Nitish Kumar in the hands of the BJP.
• Even Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo who ended the longest running alliance of the BJP breaking ties has privately mocked Nitish Kumar’s plight. 
• The biggest lesson is how dangerous the BJP under Shah and Modi has become to its partners, that the Akali Dal lost its traditional seat it had retained for 20 years to the Congress in the by-polls yesterday, must be realizing. 
• Shah’s arrogant treatment of Nitish Kumar, his repeated insults, his gobbling up of the JDU’s political space and the recent warning that the BJP will not make any concessions in seat sharing have all been observed by the fence-sitting opposition leaders. Amit Shah's plans to cut Nitish Kumar and JDU down to size and grab more Lok Sabha seats is an open secret in Bihar. So much so that Nitish Kumar who had used Rahul Gandhi as a scapegoat to walk out of the alliance is now sending feelers to the Congress to bail him out.
• Nitish Kumar has also reached out to “friend” West Bengal CM Mamta Banerjee, who was his colleague in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Much to his consternation Banerjee bluntly told him “Modi is no Vajpayee. He will eat you up alive”.
• Left with no options, Nitish Kumar might break all alliances and is likely to go "Solo" in 2019 General elections, like Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo. Amit Shah is likely to eat humble pie in front of Thackeray as Maharashtra accounts for the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats (48), but Nitish Kumar will be given no quarter. But it is unlikely that Thackeray will give in to Shah’s sweet talk but Nitish Kumar is desperate for any BJP deal.
• Navin Patnaik, Odisha CM has now reached out to the leaders of the united opposition after seeing how the BJP treats allies. Patnaik already had a quiet meeting with Sonia Gandhi. Naveen Patnaik is likely to make some joint moves with the united opposition as Rahul Gandhi is in touch with him. Patnaik realises the writing on the wall that the Modi wave is over and hence sitting on the fence is no longer a feasible option.
• Shah is facing allies bleed away from him due to his shortsighted pursuit of winning every electoral battle that has compelled divided opposition to get united for survival. 
• Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, is acting as a catalyst of opposition unity having brought together opposite community leaders Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel in Gujarat and giving BJP a fight and fright.
• The Congress's new MPCC chief Kamalnath is negotiating with Mayawati for an alliance in MP which would add at least another 4-6% Dalit votes. The Congress is committed to reaching out and creating a rainbow opposition coalition across the country. And uneasy Shah has put in CBI on the job of breaking the BSP away.
• But as the Air Asia case registered against Ajit Singh on the eve of the Kairana result showed that vendetta politics of Modi and Shah have diminishing returns. The leaders being targeted are more determined to band together. Sharad Pawar of the NCP, who Modi hailed as his political guru, has also ended his tacit understanding with Modi and is now a prime mover of the united opposition.

However hard Amit Shah tries, it seems that he is unable to split and divide the opposition. The BJP’s  unprincipled power grabs are now working against it. Sources close to Nitish Kumar says that he thought Modi was here to stay. The same Nitish Kumar now privately says that Modi was an accidental PM. A bubble on a wave which will burst in the big fight of 2019. 

Nitish Kumar’s somersault has now become a statutory warning to the united opposition - ally with the BJP at your risk.

Sonia Gandhi outmaneuvers Modi in Karnataka

Karnataka Elections 2018 Results

What Karnataka Governor Can Do?

Recent Precedents Favoring BJP

Arun Jaitley - Goa Assembly Elections 2017

By hook or crook, BJP is hell bent on formation of government in Karnataka, despite falling short of numbers by 8. While JDS has accepted post-poll coalition with Congress, for CM position to its leader Kumaraswamy, independents & others are just 3 and are in no position to help BJP. The only option left for BJP is to engineer defections from JDS or Congress and that is what they are doing exactly by making Governor not inviting Kumaraswamy to form government and BJP leader BS Yedurappa asking Governor for inviting him, on the basis of being leader of the largest party, to form Government without majority numbers and no confirmed support and asking one week time to prove majority on the floor of the house thus getting sufficient time for horse trading of JDS & Congress MLAs, shamelessly. When the Governor acts decisively and correctly or what shape the issue takes and ends up is for the time to decide.

Earlier while BJP was rejoicing their certainty of reaching magic figure, Sonia Gandhi & Rahul Gandhi moved in swiftly by offering JDS to form government and Congress willing to support from outside unconditionally was readily accepted by Deve Gowda & Kumaraswamy with a condition that Congress be a part of coalition with Dy.CM, Speaker and 19 ministerial positions and JDS taking CM & 12 cabinet positions which Congress actually wants to get from JDS. Realising the situation BJP too reached out to JDS offering them with DyCM post etc, but was ignored by them. Deve Gowda always maintained that he was secular and always opposed to RSS-Hindutva idealogy.

Now Modi & BJP's central team staying at Bengaluru todo every possible thing for BS Yedurappa forming BJP Government unethically, immorally, unconstitutionally etc and luring all non-BJP MLAs is nothing but murder of democracy and rape of constitution in the streets of Bengaluru by Modi, Amit Shah, BJP, Governor etc. But they won't care. All that they want is power in Karnataka and perceived political entry into South India, otherwise Modi & BJP are certain to lose 2019 General Elections in the reality of negative vibrations in West & North India due to Modi government's gross under performance and economic distress, as per political analysts. BJP & needs to win as many MP seats as possible in South, East and North East otherwise Modi & Shah will get dumped back in Ahmedabad.

RSS predicts Congress clean sweep in Karnataka Elections.

  

 

As seen in Gujarat elections Modi & Amit Shah and BJP will stoop down to any level and do anything to win Karnataka elections. Playing communal card is a time tested option for BJP. But what they would do is no easy guess. EVM tampering is a possibility apart from dumping money for buying votes. They may very well campaign Rahul Gandhi & Co as anti-nationalists, desh-drohis, etc. But my gut feeling is that all these will only boomerang on BJP & Modi's face. With so many forces working against BJP with Modi's arrogance & audacity, anger of minorities, Telugu people, Tamil people, caste divide etc all are likely to aid each other in trouncing BJP. PM Modi few days ago sang paeans to HD Deve Gowda, the JDS patriarch and influential Vokkaliga leader, four years after offering the shelter of an old-age home to him. Whereas now Modi is probably seeking Deve Gowda's help in forming Government in Karnataka, in case of hung assembly. Congress president Rahul Gandhi had rightly called the JDS the "B team" of the BJP.

Modi's Karnataka campaign: All bakwas

• Modi as PM and Siddaramaiah as CM of Karnataka should have shown some culture as constitutional offices bearers. They should have focused on publicizing their achievements, at least to some extent, during the past 4 or 5 years they ruled country or state and refrained from factitious attacks on each other.
• Modi's vitriolic attack on Rahul Gandhi cuts no ice because Rahul Gandhi proved himself far superior than Modi during past 1 or 2 years in dealing with each other in public space. In fact Modi's admirers of 2014 realized his true colors and many are showing their inclination towards Rahul Gandhi.
• Modi attempting to show himself 'big' by belittling opponent, which worked well during 2014 election campaign, while he was anti establishment PM candidate, will only boomerang on his face now with himself being a failed PM during past 4 years. He lacked either common sense or became too arrogant or both with unbridled power.
• Having alienated Muslims, Christians, Telugu people, Tamil people (all together form nearly 30% voters in Karnataka) with his arrogance, how Modi & BJP can think of winning Karnataka polls with just Hindutva card which has also lost its utility having been used several times in the past. Even opinion polls suggested clear victory for Congress and BJP influenced media predicted hung assembly.
• In the name of 'ease of doing business' and 'development' what Modi and almost all state governments have done is destruction of labour protection laws enabling corporate's exploit labour, allowing corporate's to destroy ecology, diversion of scarce resources from farmers to businesses and so on which seemingly doing good by filling govt's coffers have done many fold harm in terms of smuggling, tax evasion, money laundering, harming nature & ecology, destruction of human values apart from denying essential services to poor people like education, healthcare etc.
• Whether Rahul Gandhi can speak 15 minutes without preparation is a different question but the fact is that in RS while leader of opposition MMS spoke about demenetisation effects for 30 minutes accusing PM of 'organised loot and legalised plunder' the shocking one hour reply from the PM, Modi consisted no references to demonetization but focused on what Congress and its leaders have done and haven't done during the past 70 years. Most irresponsible reply from PM on the floor of the house. Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah has rightly pointed out and challenged Modi to answer Rahul's questions on Rafael deal etc using papers in 15 minutes.
• While non constitutional office bearers (opposition leaders) can talk any non-sense any where, ruling party constitutional office bearers are expected to show some decency by refraining from vulgarity and vitriolic's etc. They may not be able to speak truth but must not indulge in blatant lies and mudslinging.
• PM must lead the nation by example. But Modi's speeches always contained style only and never any substance.

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, 

but you cannot fool all the people all the time ... Abraham Lincoln

A CEO of a company handed over two sealed envelopes to his successor with a suggestion that he may open first envelope when ever he faces first trouble and second envelope when he faces second trouble. After some months new CEO faced first trouble and opened the first envelope that contained the message 'blame the predecessor'. He did so and overcame the problem. After some more time he faced second trouble and opened second envelope that contained the message 'prepare two envelopes'. The moral is that blaming predessor works only once. Modi must realize that blaming UPA / Congress / Rahul Gandh etc for what they have done or they haven't done worked for him already in 2014 and attempting to use the same now will boomerang on his face.

Economic survey 2018

• GDP is likely to touch 6.75% by the close of this FY. Far behind 8% of 2015-16. Remember GDP growth has nothing to do with well being of common man.
• Tax base goes up but tax collections are lower.
• Three year low oil price bonanza is over. The benefit was squandered away foolishly by Modi & Jaitley. Any further increase of oil price will not only slow does GDP growth but impacts inflation.
• A $20 per barrel increase in oil prices will result in GDP growth slowdown by 1%, and a rise in inflation of 1%.
• If high international oil prices persist or elevated stock prices correct sharply, provoking a ‘sudden stall’ in capital flows is likely.
• In the medium term, the three areas that would require a policy focus including employment, education, and agriculture.
• Further economic reforms like completing banks recapitalization, completing privatization of Air India.
• The Sensex has risen 46%, during past 2 years, while economic growth and corporate profits have decelerated. This trend has largely been driven by expectations of a revival in growth and a sudden change in the savings pattern of households after demonetisation. A sharp correction cannot be ruled out in case future growth of the economy and corporate earnings do not remain in line with current expectations and stock markets could trigger "stall" in capital flows and force hikes in interest rates.
• Due to climate change, annual agricultural incomes could reduce by 15-18% in irrigated areas and 20-25% in unirrigated areas. Higher investment needs to be made towards expanding irrigation with the implementation of efficient drip and sprinkler technologies. A plan to provide direct income support to farmers can be put in motion to replace inefficient agricultural subsidies. 
• Although India's unemployment rate is around 3.5%, the unemployment rate in the 15-24 age group stands at 10.5%, as per ILO estimates. India has an abysmally low capacity to provide jobs to first-time workers. The only solution for India is to strengthen its manufacturing sector. 
• Providing incentives to labour-intensive export sectors  will not only provide jobs but also implies higher current account surplus for the economy which can provide a cushion against swings in the global oil prices. Therefore, it would go a long way in reducing India's historical macro-economic vulnerability. 
• Congress leader  Randeep Surjewala said that it has turned out to be much ado without direction, cohesion and vision. Modinomics had decoupled India's robust economy by myopic vision and the double whammy of demonetisation and ill-conceived GST. With one year to go for next general elections, Prime Minister Modi has plunged India's Economy towards despondency, dejection and dire straits.
• Senior Congress leader P.Chidambaram said though the survey says growth rate for 2017-18 will be 6.75%, implying a second half growth rate of 7.5%, it offers little evidence in support of this claim. Causing 'agrarian distress' is the designed objective of the Modi government as the agriculture-GDP growth under the Modi government has plunged to just 1.9%, half of what was achieved in the first four years of the UPA. It is obvious that the government hopes that the private sector will come to the rescue of the economy. There is not much gas left in the government.
• In a jibe at the government, Mr Rahul Gandhi tweeted, "The Economic Survey 2018 says, 'Acche Din' are here, except for these minor hiccups: Industrial Growth is (down). Agricultural Growth is (down). GDP Growth is (down) and Job Growth is (down). Don't worry Be Happy!" He also tagged a video of the song "Don't worry be happy" with the tweet.

Modi is in a fiscal bind. Revenue collection remains under pressure following the chaotic roll-out of a GST, and with an eye on next year's election, his spending priorities may turn to the distressed rural sector, putting pressure on the budget deficit. Even though government committed 3.2% budget deficit for this year analysts expect this at 3.5% this year and and 3.2% next year.

Economic upturn is defined as higher GDP growth over three consecutive quarters. Not every uptick which Modi's team bombard incessantly in media and social media. All these economic data doesn't mean anything really. Go to a village and talk to them or meet some frustrated unemployed youngsters in every street corner in the evenings and you will realize state of economy. Nearly 10% of voters for 2019 elections are first time voters in age band of 18-25 educated and/or skilled joined workforce but unemployed who have no knowledge of history or politics or bothered about GDP growth or corruption. Most of them are engaged in subsistence activities and are thoroughly frustrated. They would teach lesson to Modi and BJP in 2019 general elections.

The man who could not do any thing with Rs.4-5 lakh crores of oil bonanza money in 3 years except resorting to wild gambling what can he do now with no money, non performing economy and almost all sectors in distress. Corruption is not the only high priority item in our country. The priority items are healthcare, education, unemployment, agrarian distress, and many more after which corruption control and bullet train comes. Unfortunately for our flamboyant PM style, spectacle and display alone matters and nothing else. Modi has made a hash of anything and everything. The worst PM ever in history of India. The only way to show performance is to create wrong data and that is what exactly he and his gang are doing.

Rahul Gandhi proves his mettle

Today, after winning successive elections since 2014 except Bihar, Delhi and Punjab [BJP & allies rule expanded to 19 of 29 states; Congress rule restricted to just 5 states] the invincible Prime Minister Modi is scared of only one man by the name Rahul Gandhi, whom he & his trolls once described as 'pappu' and a 'reluctant politician'. During the past six months Rahul Gandhi smashed all these and gave a spirited and stunning fight in Gujarat election making Modi and his BJP machine sweat like never before. Here are some points proving his mettle:

1. Rahul Gandhi said on demonetisation "Initially the government spoke about black-money, then moved to counterfeit currency and then again to a cashless society campaign. The prime minister took this so-called bold decision single-handedly. The bold decision can also be a foolish decision. And this has devastated the country. More than 100 people have died. Farmers, fishermen, daily wage earners have been hit hard." He also said "Dr Jaitley, the economy is in the ICU because of notes ban and GST. Aap kehtey hai aap kissi sey kum nahi/ magar aapki dava mein dum nahi."
2. Rahul Gandhi said on GST roll out "A reform that holds great potential is being rushed through in a half-baked way with a self-promotional spectacle. GST is being executed by an incompetent and insensitive government without planning, foresight and institutional readiness. India deserves a GST roll out that does not put crores of its ordinary citizens, small businesses & traders through tremendous pain & anxiety. Their GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. Small shopkeepers are finished. Lakhs of youths have been unemployed. But they are still not ready to listen. Congress GST is 'Genuine Simple Tax'. Modiji’s GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'." 
3. Rahul Gandhi hammers on 'unemployment' issue repeatedly. On his superb trip to USA he said, "I think the central reason why Mr. Modi arose is the question of jobs in India. There’s a large part of our populations that simply do not have jobs and cannot see a future. But, certainly our prime minister is not doing enough in creating jobs. 30,000 new youngsters are joining the job market every single day and yet the government is only creating 500 jobs a day. My main issue with Mr Modiji is that he diverts that issue and points the finger somewhere else instead of listening." Though the ruling government floated a plethora of schemes like ‘Make in India’, ‘Startup India’ and ‘Digital India’, all of these initiatives proved to be duds.
4. Speaking on women rights back in 2014 Rahul Gandhi  said, "We talk a lot about becoming a superpower in the world but till the women of our country do not feel comfortable and secured, our country cannot become a superpower. And to tell you the truth, we don’t want such a superpower status, where women are not empowered. One thing I have learnt is if you empower women, they can do anything. One important battle we have to win is the women’s reservation Bill in Parliament. We’re not going to let go of it." The BJP had promised during their pre-election rallies that the women’s reservation bill would be passed as soon as they got into power. Despite three and a half years of Modi rule, the bill has not come up in the Lok Sabha so far.
5. Rahul Gandhi while speaking on intolerance had previously said, "Truth and Power are not the same thing. Truth is what stands up to power. Today, there is no doubt that the emperor is completely naked but there is no one with any courage to point it out. When the British came to India, people handed over freedom to them. It was never taken away from us. This could very well happen now. Both the RSS and Mr Modi want to create a country where people live in utmost fear surrendering their voice so that they can rule unhindered. Mr Modi, after locking his cabinet colleagues in a room announced demonetization which wiped off lakhs of jobs. Many media houses have been depicting this as a work of genius even while admitting in private that it was an act of insanity. Most of them have lost their voice." At his recently concluded USA trip, he again said, "What happened to the tolerance that prevailed in India? What happened to the harmony? For thousands of years, India has had a reputation of peace and harmony. This is being challenged. Our most powerful asset is that 1.3 billion people lived happily, non-violently, peacefully. This is something that as Congress people, every single one of us has to defend."
6. On agrarian crisis Rahul Gandhi said in a rally in Maharashtra, "Everyone knows that a farmer needs the support of the nation and the State Government. If you ask any farmer, how much money comes from their farm, then every farmer will tell you – if the MSP is not increased, if there are no rains and no compensation or bonus is given, then they won’t be able to work, and this is the truth behind today’s India."  Criticising the ruling NDA Government, Rahul said in Gujarat "the suit boot government doesn’t do anything for the farmers." Speaking earlier this year to the bereft farmers from Tamil Nadu, he said,” The farmers have been sitting here for so long. But neither the government nor the Prime Minister is listening to them. The people and farmers of Tamil Nadu deserve to be heard by the Prime Minister who is disrespecting them by not initiating any dialogue. Over the last three years, debt worth Rs 1.4 lakh crore held by 50 industrialists have been written off. Why the same is not being done in case of the farmers? Why are their debts not being waived? It is the Prime Minister’s responsibility to do so.” 
7. Rahul Gandhi has made the 'failed development model of BJP' as the body and soul of his Gujarat campaign. Modi had come to power based on the stellar work he had apparently done in Gujarat which he promised would be juxtaposed to other states as well. But Rahul Gandhi ripped that narrative to pieces saying, "Gujarat model of development can be called toffee model or ‘gubbara’ (balloon) model, which is nothing but loot of public money to benefit big people like Tata and Adani. Modi had given away 45,000 acres belonging to poor farmers and the size of Bihar’s Purnea district to a single person (Adani) at a rate of rupees one per sq metre which is equivalent to the price of a toffee. He gave away the entire stretch of land at a paltry sum of Rs.300 crores. Modi had also provided Rs.10,000 crore loan to Tata Motors for its Nano car project at 0.1% interest, while the common man get loan from banks at 12% interest. For every Nano car, the Gujarat government is providing Rs.40,000 assistance. The total budget of the Gujarat government on education, health and other welfare is less than Rs.10,000 crore." Speaking later he added, "Vikas has gone crazy? India’s economy has been destroyed. But everyone is quiet because they are afraid to speak against Narendra Modiji. These are not my words. Senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha has written this in a newspaper article today. Poverty reduction in Gujarat was highlighted as a huge success but reports have since shown that it has been slower than most of the other states. There has been undoubted progress in electrification and infrastructure development but that has mostly played in the hands of the corporate sector with little to no improvement for the masses! If Gujarat model was dissected, an entire thesis could well be written on it with both pros and cons. We would just stop short of calling it a bigger success than it was.
8. We worked for 10 years to bring peace in Kashmir. Speaking in USA on the violence in the valley, Rahul Gandhi said, "PDP was instrumental in bringing youngsters in politics, but the day Modi made alliance with PDP, he destroyed them (PDP). He (Modi) massively opened up space for the terrorists in Kashmir, and you saw the increase in violence.Violence against anybody is wrong. Hatred, anger and violence can destroy us, the politics of polarisation is dangerous. These incidents are making millions feel that they have no future in their country. I lost my father, my grandmother to violence, if I don’t understand violence then who will?"

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Rahul Gandhi blames the BJP for spreading abuses about him

Gujarat elections 2017 - facts & future

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is India’s most successful politician of the 21st century did not have a challenger, either from within the party or outside it. Barring the few stubborn states he had smashed the opposition in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Apart from hiccups in Delhi and Bihar, the prime minister was on a one-man charm offensive as he stormed state after state. The most stunning were the victories in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Assam, in the first half of 2017. Now, he has retained Gujarat and won Himachal Pradesh, taking the NDA kitty to 19 states.

• In Gujarat, Modi has been challenged by Rahul Gandhi, the politician whom the BJP ridiculed most.
• In narrow defeat, Rahul has become the principal challenger to Modi. It is a challenge which will be repeated in different parts of the country through the next 18 months - the two parties face off in eight states, culminating in 2019 General Elections.
• In Gujarat, Rahul took on the Modi magic, exploiting the frustrations and grievances. While Modi sweated in over 40 campaigns and 90 road shows, Rahul, in the company of 3 young turks, was at ease engaging people and pointing out Modi's all round failures. Rural Saurashtra responded.
• In Gujarat, BJP won 99/80 against Congress with 3 others. Total 182.
  (BJP 115, Congress 61, Others 6 in the outgoing Assembly)
• It is neither a victory for BJP, nor is a defeat for the Congress. While tense Modi stands diminished, confident Rahul stood taller.
• Congress party’s vote percentage when compared with the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 increased from 33.5% to 41.5%, whereas that of the BJP dropped from 60% to 49%.
• In 16 seats, the Congress lost by a margin of less than 3,000 votes. 
• If the four major cities of Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot are kept out, Congress won 71 seats against the BJP’s 53.
• BJP was completely wiped out in 5 of 33 districts in Gujarat.
• It was a huge gambit for Rahul as he took on Modi directly in Gujarat, where the prime minister has a cult following.
• Even in defeat, Rahul Gandhi has got an enhanced stature, and the Congress has got a morale booster as it prepares to take on the BJP in a direct contest in the upcoming assembly elections.
• Now the BJP has to stop dreaming about a Congress-mukt Bharat.
• Gujarat is a reminder to Rahul Gandhi of the main problem facing the Congress - a weak organisation and an uninspiring state leadership. 
• Modi has a credibility problem. What ever he says, his forces, his organisation repeats that. But the country is not listening to it - said Rahul Gandhi, in his first comments on the poll verdict.
• BJP trolls in social media has become much weaker with Modi's autocratic tendencies and failures whereas Congress became much stronger and aggressive.
• “The tide is turning for the prime minister and the BJP. Modiji’s home state has made this clear. The anger and dissatisfaction on the ground was so palpable,” said Mahila Congress president Sushmita Dev, MP.

Modi saddled with cosmetic successes and all round failures - demonetisation's bad effects still lingering, badly rolled out GST unlikely to produce any worthwhile success in next 18 months, agrarian distress, unemployment, inflation, oil prices rising, economic indices worse than 2014, sinking PSU banks, CBI court acquitting UPA in 2G scam completely and so on effecting all sections of population and his magic fast fading out, winning 8 state elections in 2018 and general elections 2019 won't be easy for him, especially with Rahul Gandhi shaping up well while Modi's authoritarian & arrogant tendencies becoming a point of discontentment. BJP insiders including cabinet ministers wished victory for Congress in Gujarat so that Modi will start learning walking on the ground.The budget 2018 and 2019 will surely be welfare & rural oriented but without much money available these might not get him desired results.

BJP wins Gujarat & HP without shine & bragging rights

 

  

• BJP winning (1) Gujarat six times in a row and (2) winning Himachal Pradesh, ousting Congress, with a 2/3 majority is by no means a small achievement for Modi but what is lacking is its shine and bragging rights.
• With 49.1% of the vote, the BJP lost 10 percentage points from its 2014 Lok Sabha tally.
• NOTA grabbed over 5.5 lakh votes, or just under 2% of the votes polled.
• Gujarat voters have handed the BJP its sixth straight victory, but tempered the win by reducing its majority to 99 – its lowest tally since 1995.
• The ruling BJP won 36 of the total 40 seats spread in six major cities and that saved the day for the BJP in the tight contest between PM Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
• CM Vijay Rupani and DyCM Nitin Patel won their seats while five serving Ministers and Assembly Speaker Ramanlal Vora were defeated.
• The PM Modi’s 20-minute speech reflected his worries and the party’s vulnerabilities despite the victories.
• Though BJP has won despite the anti-incumbency factor, the State polls turned into a photo finish unlike the landslide and much below the BJP’s target of winning 150 seats. Saurashtra, the BJP’s stronghold since 1995, dealt the party a big blow, as the Congress won 30 out of 54 seats in the region.
• In Saurashtra's 11 districts, the BJP got nearly wiped out in 5 districts.
• Most of Modi's speeches at rallies focussed on divisive themes. Mandir-Masjid, Mughals, Pakistan, Ahmed Patel, Salman Nizami, etc., he practised classic dog-whistle politics that might have stoked passions among some sections of the electorate.
• Whatever the BJP leaders may say, the victory by an extremely slim majority and well short of its aim of 150+ seats is a setback.
• With the kind of spirited fight provided by Congress, BJP's proclaimed goal of a “Congress-mukth Bharat” suffers severe set back.
• In Himachal Pradesh, despite the big win, the BJP faced the ignominy of seeing its chief ministerial candidate, Prem Kumar Dhumal, lose to his Congress rival.
• BJP may be tempted to believe that neither demonetisation nor the flawed roll-out of the GST regime has dented its support among traders and the middle class. But the heart-stopper in Gujarat has given enough reason for it to rethink, do a reality check and reconnect with the remoter parts of India.

Notwithstanding the fact that BJP won Gujarat elections 99/80 defeating Congress, the truth is that Modi has addressed 34 rallies & 97 road shows campaigned like a CM not as a PM, never mentioning any of his development schemes but relied entirely on divisive & religious polarisation, Pakistan, Mughals, Muslims, Mandir-Masjid, abusing Congress leaders and arousing passions etc. Modi did everything like a street politician to win elections forgetting that he is holding office of PM and is oath bound to uphold its dignity and sweated like never before. On other hand Rahul Gandhi, in the company of 3 young turks, was at ease engaging people questioning ruling party of its failures, visiting temples, raising concerns of agrarian distress, unemployment, failed demonetisation and GST etc. While Modi was assisted by his entire central cabinet & several other BJP leaders from other states Rahul Gandhi was virtually alone. Modi put Gujarat above nation by postponing parliament's winter session and condensing its duration so that he could campaign more in Gujarat. Modi subverted EC by influencing it in delaying announcing poll schedule to enable his announcing sops to Gujarat. The kind of money spent for BJP's campaigning and liquor flowing in this dry state has dented his claim as crusader against corruption and black money. Modi's spectacular show in riding the sea plane (specially flown from Karachi for this show) a day before campaign ended is in violation of his own security protocol. Modi’s penchant for style and no substance has a chilling similarity with Mussolini’s Fascist Italy with less concerns for efficient governing of people in solving their economic problems but focused more on the spectacle of power, on the visual and impressive display of symbols, myths and rituals. With BJP winning 99/80 against Congress Modi diminished himself while Rahul Gandhi stood taller posing as a challenger for 2019 general election while his dream of  “Congress-mukth Bharat” stands buried. Like any other programmable computers, tampering EVMs is neither easy nor very difficult and its alleged tampering by BJP will never be known. The talk of the town is that many Modi's cabinet colleagues silently wished defeat of BJP in Gujarat so that he starts learning to walk on the ground. In order to preserve our democracy it is necessary to have a narrow & rigid election campaigning code and also prohibit constitutional office bearers taking up any assignment for a period of two years after retirement.

BJP wins in Gujarat !

Today i.e. Dec 18, 2017, Gujarat election counting completed and BJP won in 99 seats (54%) and Congress+ 80 seats (44%), just 6 seats above the magic mark of 93 seats. In a 182 seat Gujarat Assembly - although it is a record 6th straight victory for BJP, all is not well for BJP and Congress put up a brave, spirited, tenacious and resurgent fight.

In 1985 Congress headed by Rajiv Gandhi won 149 seats (82%) restricting BJP to just 11 seats (6%). BJP never won Gujarat elections with any landslide victory. 

Now in 2017 elections, BJP's victory is with the lowest margin in the past 25 years, just 54% of seats. This is despite PM Modi addressing 37 rallies like a state CM, using street language abusing Congress and its leaders especially Rahul Gandhi and his family and invoking religion and Pakistan with no mention of his reforms (like demonetisation, GST etc) or Gujarat vikas model etc. Model poll code was violated by PM Modi himself many times. Quantum of money spent and liquor flowing in this dry state is immeasurable with lion's share of BJP (the champion of crusade against corruption & black money). Almost all media was captive in the hands of authoritarian Modi reflected by hours of coverage for Modi and often as low as a minute for Rahul Gandhi.

EC was blamed all along being partial to BJP and EVM tampering by BJP. EC lost its credibility by its wrong behavior only to please authoritarian Modi.

The way campaign was conducted by spirited & tenacious Congress led by Rahul Gandhi associated with 3 young turks - Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani sent shivers to BJP & Modi that compelled Modi to stretch himself and sweat out with fears of imminent defeat. 

Modi successfully fooled people of Gujarat once again since 2002 with his narratives, arousing passions, anti Muslim rhetoric, abusing Congress party etc with out doing much to the state of Gujarat or India. Today, Gujarat's human development indices are no better than Indian averages. Economic indices makes no sense for common people, poor people and farmers. Sound minds of India expect miracles by electing educationally and morally illiterate to power.

If any sanity of mind is left with Modi, he will go very cautiously with further reforms which only favours rich and hurts poor and focus on reasonable share for welfare, agriculture and rural development. With several states going to polls in 2018 and general elections 2019, analysts expect cautious behavior by Modi & co. But Modi is a man in hurry with habit of seeking quack advises, no economists left in his inner circle, empty coffers, unfavorable oil prices etc, he will be tempted to resort to wild adventures which would be disastrous for nation and that would be end of BJP in 2019 elections.


Narendra Modi’s seaplane flight from the Sabarmati river in Ahmedabad to the Dharoi dam in Mehsana district on the last day of campaigning, is not only flouting his own safety norms but the question is whose plane is that. The aircraft is identified as N181KQ, landed in Mumbai on Dec 3 2017. It was said to have flown in from Karachi. The plane is owned by the Bank of Utah as a trustee and is USA registered, real owner is unknown. The flight logs of the aircraft show it has been across the globe made stops in New Zealand, Indonesia and Muscat before going to Karachi. The million dollar question is who brought this to India and paid for its trip to India for Modi's spectacular show.

Modi's bizarreness unlimited

• Modi should explain to nation why BJP's winning Gujarat elections is that important that made him sacrifice all decencies of a gentleman and PM in particular?
• What material he has with him to charge former PM, former Vice President and many others as traitors and conspirators against the nation?
• Having leveled the charge why legal action is not initiated against them for prosecution as per laws of the land?
• India's image stands diminished in the world with Prime Minister Modi's behavior during this election campaign.
• Indians definitely deserve a better Prime Minister.
• Finally, Modi's nonsensical utterances is reflection of BJP losing election even before polling to Congress after 22 years of rule or misrule, of which 14 years by Modi himself.
• No one should be allowed to talk nonsense and get away with out facing consequences no matter how much big one might be.
• Gujaratis will teach Modi a bitter lesson of his life to behave and stop fooling people all the times.

Modi's vitriolic in Gujarat campaign

Manmohan Singh's statement

• In Gujarat electoral campaign, while Modi seems to be sweating a lot to avoid any possibility of a humiliating defeat, Rahul Gandhi was at ease in engaging people, delivering speeches and taking decisions indicating his confidence of sure victory. 
• While there is no mention of  much publicized "Gujarat Vikas" in Modi's speeches, Rahul was at ease raising several people's issues like demonetization, GST, unemployment and so on.  
• In order to leave no stone upturned to win, Modi forgot that he is PM of he nation and began to resort to unconnected issues and bombarding with low level allegations incompatible to his status. He stooped to unimaginable lows that even ardent BJP & Modi fans were amused with contempt at his vitriolic.
• Whether Congress win or lose, this tough fight is sure to change BJP's future course of policy decisions in the light of several state elections in 2018 and general election in 2019.
• The arrogant and dictatorial attitudes of Modi are likely to soften and and also make him face internal dissent and desertions arising out of distress in economy, agriculture, unemployment, etc.
• In any case Gujarat elections and Rahul Gandhi were able to ground Modi and make see him the realities on the ground and to go forward with caution at least here after.

Having lost almost every election since 2014, Rahul Gandhi has very little to lose but resurgent and winning Congress will destroy Modi's evil grip on BJP. This coupled with financial distress will change the direction of financial reforms especially with several state elections in 2018 and general election in 2019. India has lost enough with evil Modi and it is time to dump him out. Time and again non Congress parties have squandered opportunity and proved that Congress is superior to them. Modi has so far proved to be worst of all PM's bettering only VP Singh. Rahul Gandhi with is back ground and good mannerisms proved to be a gentlemen while Modi is best at his street language. Young Rahul Gandhi is better for the nation rather than old & spiteful Modi.

Gujarat opinion polls: BJP & Congress equal with 43% share each

  

Deccan Chronicle Page 11 dated Dec 6, 2017

• Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News survey in August pegged the BJP’s vote share at 59%. This was down to 43% by November last week. In August Congress had only 29% of the vote share. This has grown by 14 percentage points in the four months since, with the party now neck and neck with the BJP equaling at 43%.
• The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dipped from 82% in August to 64% in November. And Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 40% in August to 57% in the latest survey.
• The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to anger among traders. As per the survey, in October the BJP had a lead of 4 points among traders; however, the latest survey shows this has been nearly reversed, with the Congress now getting 43% votes among the trading community, as opposed to the BJP at 40%.
• Till a month back, women were strongly backing the BJP 50% to 39% for the Congress. Now gap between the two parties is just two points with 44% favouring the BJP against 42% for the Congress.
• This despite Modi addressing several rallies and meetings and camping by 40 central ministers and that many number of BJP MPs from other states at Ahmedabad. At Bhuj and Bharuch meetings addressed by Modi last week at least one fourth chairs were seen empty and many people walking away with Modi's lack luster speeches containing all bluffs. 
• One more week to go to polls and many more rallies to be addressed by Modi with his bluffs will ensure BJP's defeat in similar lines with UP results but in victory in favour of Congress.
• Modi will be paying bitter price for forgetting people who elected him and running hand in glove with west and capitalists and doing all reckless adventures with economy and inflicting sufferings to lower class people of India.
• Today's high retail prices of all commodities, fruits and vegetables, lpg, petrol & diesel, most of which are due to Govt mismanaging economy will have its effect on polls & results.
• Finally the results indicates non stop arrogant bluffs by Modi and admission of modest truths by Rahul Gandhi. Modi must understand that he can't fool all the people all the times.

If you don't learn lessons on your own, nature will will teach you lessons

Modi is leader with severe empathy deficit. He has no understanding about the struggles of poor people who doesn't have food security beyond few days and how his adventures destroys them. On other hand he believes in medieval class structure of Hinduism which is incompatible to present day's democratic principle of 'all men are equal'. He is unfit to rule our country.

Hardik Patel, the BJP's tormentor-in-chief

Despite five consecutive defeats, the Congress has proved to be a tenacious opponent for BJP in Gujarat elections. In the 2012 assembly elections, the votes difference between the BJP and Congress was just over 10% per cent. The BJP's 115 (out of 182) seat victory was a close contest in many constituencies, with margin less than 5,000 votes. The pre-election sentiment in Gujarat is clear. The BJP is in a weaker position. 

• Not only Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is making an impact, but the Congress's axis with Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh makes it a formidable adversary. A 6% vote swing could prove catastrophic for the BJP.
• A 24-year-old Hardik Patel, has become the BJP's biggest electoral headache. Alpesh Thakor, 40, a leader from the OBC Kshatriya-Thakor community and  Jignesh Mevani, 36, a Dalit leader from Una are political influencers within their communities. The trio has teamed up with the Congress ensuring a straight fight against the BJP and BJP is in deep trouble.

Hardik Patel (24)

• Hardik's battle for reservation began when his sister was denied a scholarship in 2015 and a friend of hers with lower marks managed under the OBC quota. But that was merely a trigger. A skilful orator since his schooldays, Hardik Patel only honed his skills while he was in college and is now putting them to good use.
• Political ambition is what drives Hardik. In his first rally seeking reservation for Patels in July 2015 in Visnagar in north Gujarat his supporters allegedly beat up the local Patel MLA. On Aug 25, he addressed a massive Patel rally for reservation at Ahmedabad, asking then CM Anandiben Patel to come to the venue and take a representation from him. A savage police lathicharge by 4,000 policemen sent the Patels across large parts of Gujarat on a rampage, attacking police stations and uprooting railway lines. This provoked further police retaliation resulting in the death of 14 Patels.
• When other leaders need to have crowds 'organised' for their public meetings, Hardik's public rallies draw crowds of anywhere between 10,000 and 40,000 in big meetings and 5,000-10,000 in small village meetings. His anti-BJP rhetoric has struck a chord among Patels, particularly the youth in the community. The core of his appeal is emotional-revenge for the death of the 14 Patels killed in police firing during the 2015 pro-reservation agitation. And who better to avenge the Patels than a leader jailed for 10 months and banished from Gujarat on charges of waging war against the nation?
• "Don't forget the atrocities committed on Patels by this government in 2015," Hardik repeats at each rally. "They killed 14 youths and didn't spare even mothers and sisters while thrashing us. The time to take revenge on the BJP for those atrocities has come."
• At a rally, he urges crowds to dispassionately vote against the BJP. "Even if my father or mother contests on a BJP ticket, your only response should be to defeat them. The BJP is so opportunistic that if Dawood joins their party, they will say the 1993 blast victims died of Chikungunya."
• A series of strategic mistakes by the BJP have fueled the rise of Hardik and turned him into a hero within his community. It did not punish the policemen who targeted the Patels in 2015. Instead, it slapped sedition charges on Hardik thinking he would break. But months of jail and banishment failed to crush his spirit. Then the BJP tried to slap police charges on him, leaked footage of his meetings with Rahul Gandhi, tried to buy out his colleagues like Varun Patel and Reshma Patel and then, finally, tried to take advantage of the sex CD, which Hardik alleges they themselves made. However, all this has only served to strengthen the halo around him and cement the lore of a 24-year-old David taking on the mighty Goliath.
• Since Feb 2016, Hardik has addressed 250 rallies, both big and small. There are farmers, youth and women in the gathering. But his core audience almost always comprises Patels. And that is what is giving the BJP sleepless nights. The Patel community was BJP's primary vote bank since 1985. Patels form less than 14% of Gujarat's population but are a political force that have a tendency to vote en bloc when they feel strongly about an issue.
• On Nov 18, 2017 when three 'sex' CDs allegedly involving Hardik Patel were being discussed on several TV channels, Hardik teared into BJP "I have lived as many years as the BJP has been in power in Gujarat? Instead of making a sex CD of a 24-year-old, unmarried boy, the BJP should make CDs to show people what it has done for Gujarat in these 22 years. Why farmers are in distress in the state and why there is joblessness though it has ruled Gujarat for two decades," he thundered, in chaste Gujarati.
• The crowd erupted. If the CDs were intended to paint Patel as a sex fiend, they seemed to have had the opposite effect; he's very much a local hero.
• At another roadside gathering, Hardik continues in the same vein. "The time has come to defeat the tanashahi (imperiousness) of the BJP. Using unethical means and misusing power to defeat political rivals reflect its arrogance. The more it resorts to unethical means, the more the people will react against it."
• It's difficult to believe the 24-year-old has become the BJP's biggest nightmare. Hardik displays a political maturity way beyond his years and his astuteness and ability to turn crisis into opportunity is something BJP is worried about. 
• When the sex CDs surfaced he called the BJP "sex CD experts" and went on to rebuke "That's their main weapon when it comes to putting down rivals. They think if they can't win in a straight contest they can win by intimidation. These CDs are morphed, but even if they weren't, does it justify what the BJP did?" Sensing that they had lost the battle, the BJP beat a hasty retreat, distancing itself from the CDs after an initial attempt to exploit the footage to pull down Hardik.
• Patel votes matter substantially in nearly 70 of Gujarat's 182 assembly seats and less significantly in two dozen seats. Worryingly for the BJP traditional rivals of the Patels, are not turning towards the BJP. 
• An independent psephologist, who has conducted two surveys on Gujarat, one in Aug and Oct 2017, says the BJP's vote lead over the Congress has registered a precipitous fall from 30% to 6% in three months.
• Hardik's mother chips in: "When he was in jail, he was offered a huge sum by the BJP to join the party's Yuva Morcha." The BJP denies the charge.
• Hardik has an electric connect with the crowds. Anyone who comes to his public meeting, can't leave till his speech ends - says a political analyst. The BJP has an edge in the election thanks to the PM Modi's charisma but still Hardik is "the BJP's tormentor-in-chief".
• Congress party's political fortunes might seem brighter than they were three months back thanks to the support of the three Young Turks and the new-found appeal of Rahul Gandhi and the efforts of party leaders. 
• Modi addressed rallies in Kutch, Saurashtra and Surat tearing into the Congress with his one-liners. "I will sell tea but not our nation," he thundered at a rally in Saurashtra. 
• In BJP, caste has for the first time in many years played a key role in the selection of candidates. And Patels have been the gainers in ticket distribution in both the parties. The BJP has given them 53 seats and the Congress 47, the highest by the party in many years. 
• The questionable implementation of the GST, the resultant job losses, has altered the situation. and none in Gujarat believe the BJP will get 150 seats. 
• Modi has prevailed upon BJP strategists, including Amit Shah, to project a softer image of the party before the people as he thinks that the defection politics and highhandedness it has practised against its rivals could cost them dear. 
• Modi is subtly hinting at the benefits of having the BJP in power in both Delhi and Gandhinagar. Vote for the BJP and the benefits to Gujarat will continue. But the impact on the electorate as yet is unclear.
• Meanwhile, as many as 40 central and state ministers have been deployed in the state to ensure the victory of the BJP. The BJP's posh party headquarters is buzzing with central ministers, MPs and office-bearers from across the country dropping in.
• Congress is projecting itself a pro-Hindu party, this time, and 9.67% Muslims in Gujarat stands ignored and are keeping their cards close to chest. Muslims have significant presence in at least 25 assembly constituencies. Muslims are divided and dummy candidates ensure that Muslim votes are divided. In the end, Muslims pushed to margins have to chose the party which causes least damage to them.

Winning elections is one thing and retaining power is another thing. Winning often depends on anti-incumbency and some funny vote catching issues rather than any larger issues, efforts for retaining power makes powerful people stoop to levels of indecency and loss of character. Today what we are seeing in Modi is the second one. Modi and BJP having failed to perform to the levels they projected themselves are running from pillar to post to retain power which rarely works. Politicians lying and abusing is rampant in India, but Prime Minister lying and abusing appears awkward. Even God can't save Modi & BJP in Gujarat elections from their misdeeds and blatant lies. December 18th is not far away.

GST tinkering due to Gujarat polls

• GST Roll back of 177  items from 28% to 18% reflects their poor understanding of taxation matters by Modi, Jailtley & Co and their greediness to collect more and more taxes to fund their vanity schemes. 
• Jaitley was adamant and refused to listen to pleadings of many people to be fair in tax rates.
• What made Modi & Jaitley brought their knees is the restlessness among Gujarati traders who threatened to agitate for BJP's defeat in the ensuing assembly elections.
• This threat was confirmed to BJP in their internal survey, two months ago, which predicted winning seats as low as 50 unless some thing is done.
• Rising popularity of Rahul Gandhi in social media, intelligentsia and masses is another reason. Modi is aware that he lost at least 15% popularity so far. One out of three turning against him is enough for his disaster in 2019 elections.
• It doesn't require more than common sense to say that GST at 28% in these years of globalisation and is highest anywhere in the world.
• So this is India and here crying babies only get the milk.

No policy is a good policy which gets tinkered often. It only reflects rulers greediness, poor understanding, distorted thinking, gross unpreparedness and closed-mindness of policy makers. Modi and Jaitley opened their mind now only when GST in its original format proved disastrous and since overhaul is beyond their comprehension, they started tinkering which will never give them desired results. Anyways, GST reduction is sensible and relieves burden on people & traders but what will be its ultimate impact will be known after some months. Modi is learning to bow to people, who are his masters. Had he done the similar thing during demonetisation 1st or 2nd week, he would have been hailed as statesman too.