Amit Shah meets Uddhav Thackeray, at later's residence

Amit Shah meets Shiv Sena's chief Uddhav Thackeray on June 6, 2018

BJP president Amit Shah walked into Shiv Sena's chief Uddhav Thackeray's residence in Mumbai in an attempt to talk the Shiv Sena chief regarding his threat to contest the 2019 elections separately posed many uneasy questions.

• Only on June 3, 2018, Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut described BJP as its biggest "political enemy", in one of the sharpest attacks after the recently held Lok Sabha bypoll in Palghar. The country "does not" want the duo of PM Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah, he wrote in party's mouthpiece 'Saamana'.
• Shah, along with Maharashtra CM Fadnavis etc had called on Madhuri Dixit at her residence and presented a booklet containing the achievements of the BJP-led central government in the last four years to her during the meeting. During his meeting with Ratan Tata at his residence, Shah had presented a similar booklet.
• A day later Mumbai Congress president Sanjay Nirupam asked Dixit & Tata, in his separate letters, that the booklet were a “bundle of lies” and appealed to them not to fall for blatant lies of the BJP and its chief. 
• The issue of fighting elections together in 2019 remains unresolved, as Uddhav Thackeray was non-committal, and more meetings are planned in the coming days to improve relations. If the BJP and Shiv Sena decide to fight elections separately it is advantage for the Congress and NCP combine.
• Relations between BJP and Shiv Sena hit rock bottom in recent times. Last month's by-elections, the two allies fought against each other. Shiv Sena has signaled that as the ties between their people and the BJP have snapped. For the BJP, relationships are business calculations they opined.
• The by-elections to the Lok Sabha seats of Palghar and Bhandara-Gondiya clearly show that Shiv Sena, which is still undecided over its support for the BJP, can play spoilsport in at least 30 of 46 seats in Maharashtra.
• The meeting between the two leaders is aimed at cutting a political deal, nothing else. Shiv Sena going into sulking mode, indicates that the Shiv Sena was acting pricey to negotiate a better deal for itself.
• Shiv Sena isn't the only NDA ally to be visited by Mr Shah to mend fences. Mr Shah will be meeting with Akali Dal chief PS Badal and son Sukhbir very soon. Mr. Badal, however, prepped this meeting with a message to other allies to stand together as the general elections are in a year, they should resolve differences to strengthen the NDA to emerge victorious, Mr Badal had stated.

Anyone who is following Maharashtra's political space knows that Shiv Sena will not bridge a pre-poll alliance with its BJP for 2019, as they reiterated the meet as a ‘drama’. Amit Shah's strategy seems to make Shiv Sena officially break the alliance and then make Shiv Sena explain to voters where they stand, and not resort to fence-sitting anymore. In the 2014 Assembly elections, the Shiv Sena with 19.3% votes won 63 seats of the 282 seats. BJP secured 27.8% of the votes and won 122 seats. And Congress and NCP, secured 17.95% & 17.24% votes and won 42 & 41 seats respectively. If Congress and NCP come together, and Shiv Sena goes on its own, it will be impossible for BJP to reach the winning mark. For the kind of arrogance and audacity displayed by Modi, Amit Shah and BJP in the last 4 years, neglecting and insulting allies, no one would like stay put with BJP in NDA. Nitish Kumar's humiliation is the unforgettable example. But politics & power makes strange bed fellows. If Shiv Sena goes on its own and causes benefits to INC & NCP leading to defeat of BJP & Modi in 2019, Modi & Shah has to blame themselves for their headstrong behavior with allies.

Nitish Kumar ... No where to go

Nitish Kumar is a nowhere man now and he will do another somersault because the BJP and Shah are cannibalising him and without an ally he is negligible. He will still prefer to walk out, go it alone and become a martyr allying with the winner of 2019 ... says a senior JDU leader.

• Nitish Kumar has a soul which troubles him only when he has political power at stake. From being a contender for the PM's office to now being reduced to Shah’s collateral damage it has been a sharp and steep fall for Nitish Kumar.
• Yesterday’s loss of the Jokihat seat to the ally RJD, he betrayed was the latest in the series of reverses Nitish Kumar has faced after he joined hands with erstwhile bête noire Narendra Modi. 
• The latest in the serial snubs is Union Minister, Nitin Gadkari publicly turning down his demand for special status for Bihar, Nitish Kumar has had to repeatedly swallow his pride.
• Nitish Kumar’s humiliation at the hands of the Modi and Shah duo has a larger lesson to all the NDA allies of BJP. AP Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu reportedly told senior Congress leaders that he does not want to become Nitish Kumar in the hands of the BJP.
• Even Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo who ended the longest running alliance of the BJP breaking ties has privately mocked Nitish Kumar’s plight. 
• The biggest lesson is how dangerous the BJP under Shah and Modi has become to its partners, that the Akali Dal lost its traditional seat it had retained for 20 years to the Congress in the by-polls yesterday, must be realizing. 
• Shah’s arrogant treatment of Nitish Kumar, his repeated insults, his gobbling up of the JDU’s political space and the recent warning that the BJP will not make any concessions in seat sharing have all been observed by the fence-sitting opposition leaders. Amit Shah's plans to cut Nitish Kumar and JDU down to size and grab more Lok Sabha seats is an open secret in Bihar. So much so that Nitish Kumar who had used Rahul Gandhi as a scapegoat to walk out of the alliance is now sending feelers to the Congress to bail him out.
• Nitish Kumar has also reached out to “friend” West Bengal CM Mamta Banerjee, who was his colleague in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Much to his consternation Banerjee bluntly told him “Modi is no Vajpayee. He will eat you up alive”.
• Left with no options, Nitish Kumar might break all alliances and is likely to go "Solo" in 2019 General elections, like Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo. Amit Shah is likely to eat humble pie in front of Thackeray as Maharashtra accounts for the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats (48), but Nitish Kumar will be given no quarter. But it is unlikely that Thackeray will give in to Shah’s sweet talk but Nitish Kumar is desperate for any BJP deal.
• Navin Patnaik, Odisha CM has now reached out to the leaders of the united opposition after seeing how the BJP treats allies. Patnaik already had a quiet meeting with Sonia Gandhi. Naveen Patnaik is likely to make some joint moves with the united opposition as Rahul Gandhi is in touch with him. Patnaik realises the writing on the wall that the Modi wave is over and hence sitting on the fence is no longer a feasible option.
• Shah is facing allies bleed away from him due to his shortsighted pursuit of winning every electoral battle that has compelled divided opposition to get united for survival. 
• Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, is acting as a catalyst of opposition unity having brought together opposite community leaders Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel in Gujarat and giving BJP a fight and fright.
• The Congress's new MPCC chief Kamalnath is negotiating with Mayawati for an alliance in MP which would add at least another 4-6% Dalit votes. The Congress is committed to reaching out and creating a rainbow opposition coalition across the country. And uneasy Shah has put in CBI on the job of breaking the BSP away.
• But as the Air Asia case registered against Ajit Singh on the eve of the Kairana result showed that vendetta politics of Modi and Shah have diminishing returns. The leaders being targeted are more determined to band together. Sharad Pawar of the NCP, who Modi hailed as his political guru, has also ended his tacit understanding with Modi and is now a prime mover of the united opposition.

However hard Amit Shah tries, it seems that he is unable to split and divide the opposition. The BJP’s  unprincipled power grabs are now working against it. Sources close to Nitish Kumar says that he thought Modi was here to stay. The same Nitish Kumar now privately says that Modi was an accidental PM. A bubble on a wave which will burst in the big fight of 2019. 

Nitish Kumar’s somersault has now become a statutory warning to the united opposition - ally with the BJP at your risk.