BJP stares at by poll defeats

The results of the by-elections to the 11 assembly seats across 10 states came as a rude shock to the BJP-NDA. While NDA has managed to win only one seat in Uttarakhand only whereas Congress emerged victorious in four seats one each in Karnataka, Meghalaya, Punjab and Maharashtra. JMM won two seats in Jharkhand, SP & RLD won one each in UP, RJD won one in Bihar, TMC won one in West Bengal and CPM won one seat in Kerala.

• At Jokihat (Bihar) RJD defeated JDU with huge margin. The Jokihat bypoll defeat has come as a jolt to JDU CM Nitish Kumar who dumped RJD and INC last year to join hands with BJP to form a new coalition government in Bihar.  
• At Kairana (UP) Tabassum Hasan of RLD won against her BJP rival Mriganka Singh (daughter of deceased BJP MP Hukum Singh) with the support of INC, SP and BSP. This by-poll was pitched as another test of opposition unity against the BJP after SP-BSP combine defeaed BJP in its strongholds Gorakhpur and Phulpur in March 2018. In the Noorpur Assembly seat, which became vacant due to death of a BJP MLA in a road accident, the SP has won. These victories are likely to evolve template for joining of non-BJP parties 
• In Maharashtra's Palus-Kadegaon assembly constituency, by-election was necessitated due to the death of Congress MLA Patangrao Kadam. His son Vishwajeet Kadam, INC candidate,  was elected unopposed. 
• In Maharashtra's Palghar Parliamentary constituency the bypoll was necessitated following the death of sitting BJP MP after a heart attack. The by-election was contested by ruling BJP, its ally Shiv Sena, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) and INC. In the multi cornered contest, BJP emerged victorious and retained the seat. This victory of BJP is the only  consolation to BJP facing several humiliating defeats. In the by-poll in Bhandara-Gondiya parliamentary constituency due to resignation of the BJP MP, INC supported NCP defeated BJP in straight contest. The bypolls to Maharashtra's LS seats are seen as a litmus test for the next general election. 
• In Nagaland, parliamentary bypoll for the lone seat was due to the resignation of Neiphiu Rio to become NDPP CM, ally of BJP. BJP's ally and ruling NDPP's candidate Tokheho Yepthomi won over NPF candidate CApok Jamir.
• In Jharkhand's Gomia & Silli assembly constituencies by-poll was necessitated due to the disqualification following conviction of JMM MLA's YP Mahto in a coal theft case and AK Mahto in a manhandling case. In the triangular contests, JMM retained both the seats defeating BJP & AJSUP.
• In Meghalaya's Ampati by-poll that was necessitated due to former CM Mukul Sangma vacating Ampati seat as he had won two seats in the 2018 Meghalaya Assembly elections, retaining the Songsak seat. Congress had won the seat with margin of over 3,000 votes. With this win, Congress strength in the 60 member Meghalaya assembly is 21 surpassing ruling NPP's 20 seats.
• In Uttarakhand's Tharali assembly constituency by-poll was necessitated due to death of BJP MLA and BJP retained the seat in the by-polls. 
• In Karnataka's Bengaluru-RR Nagar assembly constituency, locked in triangular contest with BJP and JDS, INC emerged victorious. 
• In Punjab's Shahkot assembly constituency, ruling Congress party wrested the seat from Akali Dal, due to the death of its MLA.
• In West Bengal's Maheshtala assembly constituency, ruling TMC retained its seat by securing 104,814 votes against BJP candidate's 41,987 and INC backed Left Front candidate's 30,316 votes. 
• In Kerala's Chengannur assembly constituency, CPM polled 67,303 votes defeating INC 46,347 and BJP's 35,270. 

As Ambedkar feared in 1948, every government with full majority in Parliament will invariably try to undermine constitution, abuse institutions to their selfish and short sighted ends with utter disregard to principles of democracy were proved to be true with Modi's dictatorial attitudes and abuse of authority and destruction of institutions surpassing Indira Gandhi's abuse in 1970's. India has progressed well during the coalition governments between 1992-2014 (22 years), despite some setbacks and slow speed compared to other 49 years, after independence in 1947. It is better to have strong states and regional parties and weak coalition government at centre driven by common minimum program of all states & parties with extra ordinary central powers only to deal with defense, external threats or natural calamities. Centre must be responsible to Parliament on continuous basis in letter and spirit of constitution while upholding principles of democracy.

See complete by poll results

The message is loud & clear. 

United Opposition Parties can and will win over lone BJP.

The BJP has set precedent through Karnataka governor, that largest single party should get first opportunity to form government with liberal grant of 15 days time (for horse trading and/or forging coalitions etc) to pass floor test. Now in these bypolls, INC with 21 seats emerged largest single party surpassing ruling NPP's 20 seats. Will Meghalaya Governor dislodge existing BJP supported NPP coalition government and offer INC to form government by virtue of its being largest single party and pass floor test in 15 days time? Let us see what Modi & BJP will do, who are notorious to twist every event to their advantage with no regard for 'rule of the law'. 

As things are unfolding, Modi, Amit Shah, BJP etc are now clueless of how to arrest the negative vibrations due to their misrule, wild economic reform adventures resulting in economic distress and headstrong arising out of victories in almost all the elections during the past 4 years. They can only be helped by divided opposition parties, which is unlikely because they have a common and most feared enemy in Modi.