Mockery of Exit Polls

Almost all exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some pollsters such as News24-Today’s Chanakya and Aaj Tak-AxisMyIndia predicted the BJP’s win to be bigger than even the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Only ABP-Nielsen has predicted the BJP to fall short of majority.

Stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt - people have advised.

Within 60 seconds, Rs 3.2 lakh crore were added to investor kitty as exit polls see NDA win. The highly exaggerated Exit Polls have become another tool to make money and the rich are getting richer at the expense of the gullible small investors.

ABP giving 56 seats to MGB in UP, India today giving 65 seats to BJP in UP. This is the conclusion of Exit polls!

The BJP-JDU alliance is set to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar winning minimum 38 out of the 40 seats, according to the India Today-My Axis India Exit Poll. The RJD-Congress led 'Mahagathbandhan' may only bag maximum 2 seats, as per the exit polls. Is it believable?

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made a stunning allegation against TV channels’ who broadcast their exit poll predictions on Sunday evening. She said that predictions favouring the BJP was a part of a larger ‘game plan’ to ‘manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.’

Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu dismissed the predictions of the exit polls, pointing out that past experience show such analysis usually turn out wrong. "Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people's pulse. Exit polls have provIndia ed to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances..." Mr Naidu tweeted.

Last week, Arnab Goswami had slammed his rival TV channels particularly India Today for ‘leaking’ their exit poll data that gave the NDA only 177 seats, a loss of 177 seats compared to 2014, they claimed. Faced with widespread condemnation, India Today had later clarified that numbers flashed on its channel were part of the channel’s dummy data.

"I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India many people don't tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results," tweeted the Congress parliamentarian Mr Shashi Tharoor. He was referring to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, cementing his authority over the Liberal Party and giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah tweeted "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd". His tweet that did not outright cast doubts on the exit polls that is likely to be seen as a harbinger of the actual results.

Basis Exit Polls, shares of Adani Group companies have shot through the roof:
    Adani Green Energy: 17%
    Adani Gas: 16%  
    Adani Power: 14%
    Adani Transmission: 9% 
    Adani Ports & SEZ: 8%
    Adani Enterprises: 15%

There is no advantage of conducting Exit Polls!  It creates unwanted anxiety to people and politicians. Only TV channels make money.


Many political analysts see opinion polls as an evil in democracy. Opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the fair election process. Opinion polls project what voters are thinking and what their mandate will be. It doesn't direct the voters to go for the majority view or to neglect the minority. Opinion polls are accused of being manipulated and sometimes being wrong. Opinion polls can be manipulated by arranging favorable questions. It is not the duty of the media to keep the moral of the party cadres high. Media is accountable to the people not to the political parties. Indian citizen has the right to freedom of speech and expression and ban on the opinion polls will curtail this right. So argument against opinion polls holds no moral ground. In a country like ours, opinion polls and exit polls are much needed to enrich our healthy democracy. But yesterday's exit polls seems to have been manipulated by ruling BJP in order to keep UPA and allies in disarray so that in case of any marginal opportunity they could knock away the chance to form government with the help of President Kovind.

Yedurappa resigns. But what about Governor Vajubhai Vala?

• Just two days after taking oath as the Chief Minister, Karnataka BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa resigned ahead of the crucial vote of confidence on the floor of the house.
• Outnumbered by the Congress-JD(S) combine, the BJP needed the support of 111 MLAs to sail through the vote of confidence on the floor of the house. It had only 104 and its efforts to buyout few MLAs from JDS and/or Congress fell flat leaving indelible blot on their face.
• In a surprise farewell speech in the Assembly, an emotional Yeddyurappa said he will campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and ensure that BJP wins all 28 LS seats in the state.
• The BJP never had the numbers, but the governor invited them to form government and generously gave 2 weeks time for horse-trading and winning trust motion on floor of the Assembly. But Supreme Court curtailed the time to just to 36 hours, only to avoid judicial scrutiny of actions of constitutional office of Governor.
• The Supreme Court today ordered live telecast of the floor test, when Congress challenged the appointment of KG Bopaiah (BJP MLA) as Protem Speaker who is not the senior most MLA but also with questionable past record as speaker.
• In a democracy we have to accept not only people's verdict but also the follow the rule of law.
• Earlier in the week, BJP which had emerged as the single largest party, was invited by the Governor Vajubhai Vala to form the government ignoring the post poll coalition between JDS and Congress, which together had 115 MLAs, well above the mark of simple majority of 112/222 which was challenged by JDS & Congress in Supreme Court for staying the swearing-in of BS Yedurappa as the Chief Minister. 
• "The Governor has invited us to form the government. The swearing in ceremony will be organised on Monday May 21, 2018. I have personally invited Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Chandrashekhar Rao and Chandrababu Naidu to attend the ceremony," Kumaraswamy told reporters.

Governor Vajubhai Vala's  baseless and senseless decision to invite minority BJP leader Yedurappa, ignoring JDS+Congress combine's leader HD Kumara Swamy with clear majority that lead to intense horse trading activity by BJP with unlimited budgets of several thousands of crores of rupees was thwarted by JDS & Congress leadership, cadre with support of Supreme Court interventions, almost all opposition leaders across many states, JDS & Congress MLAs unwilling to cross parties within hours of electing by public. Karnataka showed that the BJP's downslide has started with arrogant and audacious actions of Modi and Amit Shah, who lost their face with steep fall from their high moral ground to deep corruption. Their credibility is totally lost and this fiasco will have its telling effect on 2019 General Elections on Modi & BJP. The need of the hour is that Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala must resign and get out.

Gorkhaland's statehood struugle

Gorkhaland's unrest and violence

MyView:

Violence in Darjeeling for Gorkhaland's statehood sparked off by Mamata Banerjee's government decision to introduce the Bengali language in schools. Indigenous Gorkhas, who mainly speak Nepali, are furious. Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) warned that "untoward" events could happen when the general strike starts and within a week 7,000 tourists left Darjeeling hills. The troubles have dealt a major blow to the region's crucial tourism industry. Bimal Gurung, head of the GJM, told that his warning to the tourists was for their own safety as the events could worsen anytime if his group launches a full-scale campaign for a separate state. The Gorkhas have been campaigning for decades for a homeland. They say Bengali-speaking outsiders have exploited their resources and imposed their culture and language. A similar agitation in 2007 led to the granting of some administrative powers to local people. 

Now the question is when Telangana is separated from Andhra Pradesh, due to people's sentiment and diversity of cultures, Gorkhas asking for Gorkhaland is in order. Similar such demands could crop up in at least 14 states, in future. Where are we heading for?

Also read: Reviving Gorkhaland