Modi unites all opposition parties against himself

• Recent developments suggest that Narendra Modi and his BJP can no longer afford to be over confident about their prospects in the next parliamentary elections. 
• BJP's recent victory in Gujarat is so much narrow that in next LS elections it may not even get 13 of 26 seats. In last elections BJP won all 26 seats.
• BJP's impressive victory in Tripura and in North East has just 24 LS seats only. 
• The recent LS bye poll humiliating defeats with massive majority in MP, UP, Rajasthan and Bihar only indicates its vulnerable position in Hindi heartland states, where it has won thumbs down in 2014, almost 90% LS seats.
• RSS survey had warned that unless BJP makes some in roads in South, East and North East, BJP may not be able to form Government in 2019, even with the help of allies.
• BJP allies from several states have either jumped ship recently or have begun making dissonant noises and a federal front is being talked about, and many has begun exploring viable anti-BJP groupings.
• The realignment conversations could be described as signs of political desperation and opportunism, the BJP will take these lightly at its own peril. Even the smallest allies that had  contributed to the 2014 result and their exit will hurt.
• Regional and small parties are usually more closer to the people, and their growing openness to considering non-BJP options suggests that they may be sniffing a change in voter mood.
• The first is the puncturing the exaggerated claims of the Modi government and its all-round failure in delivering "achhe din" by the Congress took with some success in Gujarat.
• The second is the Modi government’s callous attitude to regional aspirations and its unfair treatment of regional opposition-led states, the factors said to be behind the TDP’s exit from the BJP-led NDA.
• The third is the strong anti-democratic strain in the functioning of the BJP and Modi government, with sweeping decisions such as demonetization taken without much consultation, opposition leaders being hounded, much energy being devoted to sabotaging opposition governments and installing BJP/NDA state governments even after electoral rejection, and meddling in the working of constitutional and other authorities.
• The SP and the BSP tie-up for the UP by-elections has made the most news, but there are others too. 
• The BJP is facing criticism on non-performance, regional neglect and anti-democratic attitude, but the fact of the matter is that these have emerged as the principal themes and much of the blame must go to the Modi-Amit Shah duo. 
• The BJP’s top two have made no secret of their Congress-mukt Bharat agenda or their desire for a longer stint in the government, to realise a "new India". Political ambition of Modi-Shah duo’s chosen approach are exceptionable as their plans to continue in power appear to rely less on demonstrated performance, more on headline management, a systematic crippling of the opposition, and projection of their electoral record as a popular vindication of positions and endorsement of performance.
• The BJP has never spared the Congress for the propaganda and opposition stifling the grand old party resorted to in its heydays, and its position on electoral record smacks of duplicity. If the BJP’s election wins reflect the people’s approval of what it is doing, surely the Congress must have performed extremely well for it to have ruled the roost for decades.
• The Modi-Shah recipe, viewing BJP more as an election machine has driven the BJP to high-voltage propaganda, riding roughshod over regional sentiment and established democratic proprieties.
• Modi’s carefully crafted larger than life persona is another reason for the kind of Opposition build-up being witnessed. In painting Modi as a hugely popular, unassailable political mastermind, and Modi himself seriously invested in perpetuating the image, the BJP has hastened the process of self-reflection across various Opposition parties and given a certain credibility to charges of self-aggrandizement and totalitarianism against Modi.
• It is likely that the Modi-led hegemony not been pitched so strongly and that the men and strategies that catapulted the BJP to parliamentary majority and have delivered several important Assembly election wins will emerge as the party’s weak links now. But then, as Shah himself says, every election is different and the past matters little.

While not understating Modi's charisma and oratory skills of mesmerizing and carrying audience with him, the fact of the matter is that the people in the seats of power must deliver to the expectations of people over time of 3-5 years. Otherwise, building up anti-incumbency is inevitable. In 2014 it is not Modi's victory but loss of elections by UPA regime. Same thing will repeat in 2019, due to no-performance by Modi and humiliation of allies & opposition parties. All BJP electoral victories from 2014 onward, are mainly due to divided opposition not an endorsement of its performance. Now visible BJP's losses are also due to unification of opposition parties. The desire to defeat Modi is reverberating, unification of all opposition parties is a certainty by 2019 general election and that would ruthlessly consign Modi & Co to their hometowns. The ever increasing crude oil price will aid economic distress for people of India and will aid destruction & demolition of Modi & BJP. 

Modi & BJP's desperation to form government in Karnataka, despite falling short of majority while JDS+Congress having clear majority, with the help of their own Governor and SC passing strictures has only united all the opposition parties in the country. In the end, truth will prevail i.e. JDS+ Congress will form government and BJP will stand isolated. That would seal BJP's ambitions to make way into South and will have negative effects in 2019 elections.

Modi insult Advani, a national shame

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Tripura on Friday March 09, 2018 to take part in the oath-taking ceremony of Biplab Deb, who was has been sworn as the state's new chief minister. Narendra Modi and several other senior BJP leaders including LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, party president Amit Shah had participated in the swearing-in ceremony of Biplab Deb as Tripura Chief Minister. As greeted by everyone on the stage, PM Modi responded to them individually. However, when LK Advani greeted him, PM Modi snubbed him without responding to his greetings. The video of Modi snubbing Advani has received flak from netizens who rebuked Modi's head-strong attitude. Many Twitterati recalled how Modi had traveled with Advani as his assistant carrying Advani's microphone.

• Had Modi intended to really insult and humiliate LKAdvani, he would not have invited him in the first place.
• It was Advani who made Modi, not even an MLA, chief minister of Gujarat. How Modi manipulated Advani to pull down Keshubhai Patel is all together a different story.
• BJP won only two Lok Sabha seats in the elections of 1984, in the aftermath of assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1983 and in the resultant sympathy wave BJP was washed away. 
• It was Advani's Rath Yatra of 1990 that helped BJP win 120 seats in 1991 general elections. Later in 1996 elections BJP won 161 seats and in 1998 midterm elections it won 182 seats to form NDA govt headed by AB Vajpayee.

• Riding on the popularity after Rath Yatra, in 1996 he could have got chance to become PM but he got his senior Vajpayee's name for leadership. He was rightful claimant for the position for building the party but gave up. Vajpayee was only a face of the party, Advani was brain and real organisation man.
• In 2002, when PM AB Vajpayee had prepared the ground for removal of Modi, seen as presiding over the worst communal riots the country, it was Advani who saved the day for Modi. Vajpayee, who had asserted that Modi should adhere to “raj dharma”, bowed to Advani's pressure.

It is clear the future of all parties lies temporarily in coalitions. Coalitions demand consensus, adjustments, the fine art of political management and statesmanship. It is clear that Mr. Modi is not a carrier of such values. It is also clear that the BJP is a graceless party.

Once you get past charm, good looks, intelligence and sense of humour, 

it is modesty that stands out.

Culture of a person, society or the country
is the way they treat their women, disabled, aged and weaker sections.

Pranaam ka parinaam Aashirwaad ... Mahabharat

Modi insults Advani at BJP CM swearing in ceremony at Agartala 

It is a matter of national shame that our prime minister, Narendra Modi, is a manner less and culture less person who insults 90 year old man, LK Advani, who was also Modi's mentor and protector until yesterday on a public platform at Agartala. India's future is unsafe in the hands of this culture-less and ill educated person thy name Narendra Modi.

How BJP won in Tripura?

In an interview in early January, when asked if the BJP could challenge and replace the CPM in Tripura, the state’s longest serving chief minister, Manik Sarkar, laughed. “Challenge? Replace? You go and ask the people. And you will know the answer.” On March 3, 2018, the people of Tripura answered, bringing to an end 25 years of uninterrupted CPM rule in the state and the 20-year-old reign of Sarkar.

Government employees were unhappy because they were still on fourth pay commission salaries. The BJP promised them a hike, committing to implement the Seventh Pay Commission and that worked overwhelmingly in the BJP’s favour. Young students were unhappy because they felt Tripura was missing out on modernity and jobs or because they felt the CPM cadre were getting all the jobs that were available. The BJP presented itself an alternative which would bring vikas (development).

"Chief Minister Manik Sarkar can’t use use a smart phone. He refused to meet CEOs of top IT companies that we mobilised during the 2015 Tripura conclave just before Agartala became India's third gateway", says Saumen Sarkar, Vice President, Bank of America (IT solutions), who hails from Tripura. Sarkar organised the one-day brainstorming session, that is, the Tripura Conclave, and his efforts to mobilise several top IT majors went to waste when the state government did not play ball.

Sarkar’s biggest asset was his clean image and projection of austerity which didn't help in this elections. For Sarkar it has been a cruel good-bye, for the state has shifted to his most bitter ideological rival.

It would be preposterous to treat the results in the recent assembly elections in the three North Eastern states—Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura—as a barometer for the Lok Sabha elections 2019 in these states. In Nagaland (12 seats) and Meghalaya (2 seats), the BJP can only hope to be an ally of the winners. Before the results were declared on March 3, 2018, it would have been difficult for many to believe that the BJP would win 12 seats in the staunchly Christian Nagaland. 

• In Tripura BJP won 35 seats, BJP's ally IPFT won 8 seats and CPM 16 seats. Congress lost in all seats.
• Nearly 44 candidates in the BJP list in Tripura were ex-Congressmen. 
• The saffron party inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Left Front which had never faced such a situation even when it had lost power in 1988.
• The fact that the BJP has got a majority on its own means it would not concede to its ally IPFT’s demand for a separate state ‘Twipraland’.
• The 2019 result will therefore depend on how secure the uneasy partnership between the BJP and the Indigenous People’s Front Tripura remains. 
• Poor farmers live in fear of the revival of a tribal insurgency and credit CM Manik Sarkar for tackling it in the last decade.
• The BJP’s clean sweep in Agartala also proves that middle-class Bengalis, fed up with the lack of job creation by previous governments, also voted decisively against the Left.
• The BJP has its eye firmly on the 25 Lok Sabha seats from the north-eastern States and that its ambitions are grounded.
• Manik Sarkar was fighting a grossly unequal fight. On one side was the CM standing alone  with no money backing him, and on the other side was the “world’s largest” party the BJP, with plenty of money power and which is ruling the Centre. When CPM is refusing to have an electoral understanding with the Congress, how can it win against the BJP?
• BJP deployed 52 union ministers in Tripura during the campaign. The aim was to boost confidence of the cadre who were up against arch rivals, Left.
• The role of the RSS is important in this victory. Some senior workers were sent to BJP to work in Tripura since two years. Sunil Deodhar was the incharge of BJP in Tripura. The amounts of money spent by BJP is mind boggling too.
• The Congress’ vote share dropped from 36.5% in 2013 to 1.8% now. The BJP’s vote share rose from 1.5% to 43.0%. CPM vote share dwindled from 48% to 42.7% votes. The sheen of the BJP's spectacular win was at the cost of Congress rather than the Left. The BJP managed to swallow up the entire opposition space rather than making any drastic inroads into the traditional Left vote base.

Unless different parties with varied ideologies chalk out a common programme, they can't seriously and effectively challenge the BJP.

BJP snatches Tripura & Nagaland in North East but ...

• Modi and the BJP won outright in Tripura, scraped through with its ally in Nagaland, and is hoping to be kingmaker in a regional alliance in Meghalaya. 
• In Tripura BJP's victory is hands down dislodging 25 year CPM rule.
• In Nagaland BJP, with 12 MLAs now, is all set to form government in allaince with its poll partner NDPP even though it is minority partner in present NPF government (since 2003 with just 1 MLA). But dumping NPF, an NDA partner, and which is also BJP supporter in Manipur might become headache for BJP.
• In Meghalaya, eventhough BJP won only 2 seats it will make all out efforts to ensure that largest party Congress 21/59 is stalled in forming government. If successful, Congress rule in Meghalaya (since 2003) will come to an end .
• It is anti-incumbency vote against Congress and CPM rather than any endorsement of BJP's policies which had been disastrous so far in rest of India.
• Ironically, Modi led BJP/NDA central government has not granted a single rupee for these non-BJP states in the last 4 years.
• BJP's tall promises during the course of election campaign will be forgotten in no time, like it did everywhere so far.
• What is worst is that outgoing chief minister of Tripura, Mr. Manik Sarkar, the poorest chief minister and acclaimed as 'honest person' even by his opponents and leads a spartan life style has drubbed the CPM election loss to BJP is the effect of deploying of massive amounts of money, media and other resources apart from centre squeezing out all the state's grants during the past 4 years.

Recently, in BJP ruled, Rajasthan and MP - BJP lost bye polls with huge margins recently reflecting anger of the people against failed BJP policies particularly w.r.to farmer's distress, wide spread unemployment,  deteriorating economic conditions etc. All seven NE states has a combined population of just over 4 crores and doesn't really reflect national mood of the voter. If BJP goes into celebration mode, they will be heading for disaster in forth coming state assembly polls and 2019 general elections.