With majority eluding in 2019, BJP has to accommodate allies

As things stand at the moment, it is unlikely for BJP to get simple majority in 2019 elections but will retain the position of the single largest party. Assuming that large parts of the opposition remain together, BJP may hold on to at best 210 seats in the Lok Sabha. This would bring the BJP to the size of the Congress in the last UPA government. 

• Regional parties that are not currently in it but have been at one time, like some of the Tamilian parties, may join in. Which were once there but have become opponents (TDP, BJD etc.) could join again or remain neutral. Therefore, even if the BJP loses 70 or 80 seats, it should still be possible for the party to return to power.
• This will be an entirely new situation for Modi, who became the chief minister of Gujarat without having fought a single election. He has always led a majority government. A few months into his term, Gujarat burst into flames.
• Modi's only experience is as a CM in heading government where he controlled the full majority and often a two-thirds one. Old leaders were sidelined. New loyal faces were brought in. Modi picked and chose his Cabinet and dominated by holding all the key portfolios.
• Amit Shah, the second most powerful leader in the country today, was not given cabinet rank and was kept as MoS in the decade he served under Modi in Gujarat.
• Modi’s brilliant campaign of 2014 then produced a similar situation in Delhi and he was the undisputed leader of a party that had previously had some divisions but was always more disciplined than the Congress. Old leaders like LK Advani and MM Joshi were shunted out. Others like Sushma Swaraj had to submit. The party is seen as a big happy family today but it is not. BJP also has many who are capable of doing more but are being deliberately held back. With BJP having less than 210 seats, these individuals & regional leaders will assert themselves in a way that they are not doing now. 

It will be fascinating to see how Modi, for the first time in his political life without a majority, will manage the ambitions and the conflicts. At 210 seats, the position of the PM will be like that of Manmohan Singh. He was wrongly seen as weak, rather than the position of a man whose allies have a veto on his actions. There is no defence against such allies except for martyrdom. One can sacrifice the government, or one’s position, and move on. But if one wants to lead in a government where the majority is missing, then allies will have to be accommodated. This is something which Modi never did. Running a minority government requires flexibility and the ability to swallow humiliation. Allies will make sure that their hold is made public and this will mean getting the government to bend a few times. It will be fascinating to see how Modi manages this, particularly for those who have observed the meteoric trajectory of his career. Minority governments and khichdi coalitions has not hampered India’s economic and social growth. Those who fear a minority government or a hamstrung BJP should not despair. Coalitions are not evil. What will be instructive will be to see how Modi manages one.

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Modi & Amit Shah duo would like to sit in opposition and allow a 'kichdi' coalition take charge and collapse with its own contradictions in an year or two and win back in mid term polls emulating fall of Janata Party and return of Indira Gandhi in 1980. Although not easier, RSS have given clear direction that it would like Modi to pave way to more acceptable person like Nitin Gadkari to lead BJP lead NDA government. Easing out Modi & Shah is a big challenge for RSS and softliners. 

Modi unites all opposition parties against himself

• Recent developments suggest that Narendra Modi and his BJP can no longer afford to be over confident about their prospects in the next parliamentary elections. 
• BJP's recent victory in Gujarat is so much narrow that in next LS elections it may not even get 13 of 26 seats. In last elections BJP won all 26 seats.
• BJP's impressive victory in Tripura and in North East has just 24 LS seats only. 
• The recent LS bye poll humiliating defeats with massive majority in MP, UP, Rajasthan and Bihar only indicates its vulnerable position in Hindi heartland states, where it has won thumbs down in 2014, almost 90% LS seats.
• RSS survey had warned that unless BJP makes some in roads in South, East and North East, BJP may not be able to form Government in 2019, even with the help of allies.
• BJP allies from several states have either jumped ship recently or have begun making dissonant noises and a federal front is being talked about, and many has begun exploring viable anti-BJP groupings.
• The realignment conversations could be described as signs of political desperation and opportunism, the BJP will take these lightly at its own peril. Even the smallest allies that had  contributed to the 2014 result and their exit will hurt.
• Regional and small parties are usually more closer to the people, and their growing openness to considering non-BJP options suggests that they may be sniffing a change in voter mood.
• The first is the puncturing the exaggerated claims of the Modi government and its all-round failure in delivering "achhe din" by the Congress took with some success in Gujarat.
• The second is the Modi government’s callous attitude to regional aspirations and its unfair treatment of regional opposition-led states, the factors said to be behind the TDP’s exit from the BJP-led NDA.
• The third is the strong anti-democratic strain in the functioning of the BJP and Modi government, with sweeping decisions such as demonetization taken without much consultation, opposition leaders being hounded, much energy being devoted to sabotaging opposition governments and installing BJP/NDA state governments even after electoral rejection, and meddling in the working of constitutional and other authorities.
• The SP and the BSP tie-up for the UP by-elections has made the most news, but there are others too. 
• The BJP is facing criticism on non-performance, regional neglect and anti-democratic attitude, but the fact of the matter is that these have emerged as the principal themes and much of the blame must go to the Modi-Amit Shah duo. 
• The BJP’s top two have made no secret of their Congress-mukt Bharat agenda or their desire for a longer stint in the government, to realise a "new India". Political ambition of Modi-Shah duo’s chosen approach are exceptionable as their plans to continue in power appear to rely less on demonstrated performance, more on headline management, a systematic crippling of the opposition, and projection of their electoral record as a popular vindication of positions and endorsement of performance.
• The BJP has never spared the Congress for the propaganda and opposition stifling the grand old party resorted to in its heydays, and its position on electoral record smacks of duplicity. If the BJP’s election wins reflect the people’s approval of what it is doing, surely the Congress must have performed extremely well for it to have ruled the roost for decades.
• The Modi-Shah recipe, viewing BJP more as an election machine has driven the BJP to high-voltage propaganda, riding roughshod over regional sentiment and established democratic proprieties.
• Modi’s carefully crafted larger than life persona is another reason for the kind of Opposition build-up being witnessed. In painting Modi as a hugely popular, unassailable political mastermind, and Modi himself seriously invested in perpetuating the image, the BJP has hastened the process of self-reflection across various Opposition parties and given a certain credibility to charges of self-aggrandizement and totalitarianism against Modi.
• It is likely that the Modi-led hegemony not been pitched so strongly and that the men and strategies that catapulted the BJP to parliamentary majority and have delivered several important Assembly election wins will emerge as the party’s weak links now. But then, as Shah himself says, every election is different and the past matters little.

While not understating Modi's charisma and oratory skills of mesmerizing and carrying audience with him, the fact of the matter is that the people in the seats of power must deliver to the expectations of people over time of 3-5 years. Otherwise, building up anti-incumbency is inevitable. In 2014 it is not Modi's victory but loss of elections by UPA regime. Same thing will repeat in 2019, due to no-performance by Modi and humiliation of allies & opposition parties. All BJP electoral victories from 2014 onward, are mainly due to divided opposition not an endorsement of its performance. Now visible BJP's losses are also due to unification of opposition parties. The desire to defeat Modi is reverberating, unification of all opposition parties is a certainty by 2019 general election and that would ruthlessly consign Modi & Co to their hometowns. The ever increasing crude oil price will aid economic distress for people of India and will aid destruction & demolition of Modi & BJP. 

Modi & BJP's desperation to form government in Karnataka, despite falling short of majority while JDS+Congress having clear majority, with the help of their own Governor and SC passing strictures has only united all the opposition parties in the country. In the end, truth will prevail i.e. JDS+ Congress will form government and BJP will stand isolated. That would seal BJP's ambitions to make way into South and will have negative effects in 2019 elections.

Telangana bungles budget & accounts 2016-17

The CAG has been very critical of the TS government's financial management and financial indiscipline. Against the TS government’s claim of surplus budget in the financial year 2016-17, the CAG report commented that the revenue surplus was overstated by Rs 6,778 crore on account of irregular accounting. Thus the state had a revenue deficit of Rs 5,392 crore in 2016-17. 

  

  

• The fiscal deficit of Rs 35,281 crore stood at 5.46% of GSDP was understated by Rs 2,500 crore due to crediting of borrowed funds as revenue receipts.
• The ratio of fiscal deficit to GSDP, excluding the amount transferred under UDAY scheme (Rs 7,500 crore), was 4.3% exceeding the ceiling of 3.5% stipulated for 2016-17 by the 14th FC  under FRBM legislation. 
• Under UDAY scheme, against Rs 8,931.51 crore borrowed through UDAY bonds during the year, the state government released Rs 7,500 crore only to Discoms at the end of the yearand has been booked under capital expenditure as equity. 
• The government utilised 34.74% of borrowed funds in 2016-17 for repaying its existing debt which increased by 18%. The CAG warned the state government that it will have to borrow further to repay its loans. 
• CAG said that the interest payments was 10.4% of revenue receipts against the normative rate of 8.22% prescribed by the 14th FC.
• The total debt in 2016-17 was Rs 1.21 lakh crore, which is 31% more than Rs 91,985 crore in the previous year. The state used 7.12% of its tax revenue to repay the debt in 2015-16, it had to allocate 32.16% of tax revenue for the same during 2016-17.
• The aim of Mission Kakatiya is to restore all 46,531 tanks in the state in five years. The restoration of 21,670 tanks by August 2017 was proposed; however, only 28% of them, 7901 tanks, were restored. The removal of silt is an important component of the restoration works. The state government said that farmers were not interested in taking the silt because it was not useful for agriculture. The CAG said that this was not acceptable as guidelines prescribed priority to be given to tanks where farmers agreed to transport silt. The restoration works are supposed to irrigate 10 lakh acres of gap ayacut. The CAG observed that there was no mention of the gap ayacut in the estimates for the individual works.

KCR of TRS has successfully converted Telangana, a revenue surplus state in 2014 (Rich state) into a revenue deficit state (Poor state) with his mindless borrowing and senseless spending and bring the state to the brink of debt trap (borrowing to pay old debts). In the process KCR and TS had violated all accounting norms, bypassed rules, bungled the books, FC rules ignored, FRBM limits violated. In these matters, KCR is neither the first nor the last. Most states and Centre violates norms and rules, at will, and doesn't really care for CAG reports. Corruption is the key element.

With most of its spending on non revenue generating projects, Telangana will sink into deep debt trap very soon. With most of its revenues going for debt servicing - education, health care and welfare will take severe hit. The debt will be shifted for as long as possible… but eventually, someone will have to come to terms with it. The black hole totals up to huge sums of money; no one can pay; and the system gets bankrupted, or services rendered become inadequate and farcical. The future is austere if this equation isn’t balanced out.

Notwithstanding tall development and financial management claims of the Gujarat state, the CAG's five audit reports on the last leg of Narendra Modi's rule as the Gujarat Chief Minister after a 12-year stint has fished out in all disputed transactions worth Rs 25,000 crore that points to fiscal profligacy and rising debt burden.

Read the CAG report dated July 2014

Rahul Gandhi proves his mettle

Today, after winning successive elections since 2014 except Bihar, Delhi and Punjab [BJP & allies rule expanded to 19 of 29 states; Congress rule restricted to just 5 states] the invincible Prime Minister Modi is scared of only one man by the name Rahul Gandhi, whom he & his trolls once described as 'pappu' and a 'reluctant politician'. During the past six months Rahul Gandhi smashed all these and gave a spirited and stunning fight in Gujarat election making Modi and his BJP machine sweat like never before. Here are some points proving his mettle:

1. Rahul Gandhi said on demonetisation "Initially the government spoke about black-money, then moved to counterfeit currency and then again to a cashless society campaign. The prime minister took this so-called bold decision single-handedly. The bold decision can also be a foolish decision. And this has devastated the country. More than 100 people have died. Farmers, fishermen, daily wage earners have been hit hard." He also said "Dr Jaitley, the economy is in the ICU because of notes ban and GST. Aap kehtey hai aap kissi sey kum nahi/ magar aapki dava mein dum nahi."
2. Rahul Gandhi said on GST roll out "A reform that holds great potential is being rushed through in a half-baked way with a self-promotional spectacle. GST is being executed by an incompetent and insensitive government without planning, foresight and institutional readiness. India deserves a GST roll out that does not put crores of its ordinary citizens, small businesses & traders through tremendous pain & anxiety. Their GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. Small shopkeepers are finished. Lakhs of youths have been unemployed. But they are still not ready to listen. Congress GST is 'Genuine Simple Tax'. Modiji’s GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'." 
3. Rahul Gandhi hammers on 'unemployment' issue repeatedly. On his superb trip to USA he said, "I think the central reason why Mr. Modi arose is the question of jobs in India. There’s a large part of our populations that simply do not have jobs and cannot see a future. But, certainly our prime minister is not doing enough in creating jobs. 30,000 new youngsters are joining the job market every single day and yet the government is only creating 500 jobs a day. My main issue with Mr Modiji is that he diverts that issue and points the finger somewhere else instead of listening." Though the ruling government floated a plethora of schemes like ‘Make in India’, ‘Startup India’ and ‘Digital India’, all of these initiatives proved to be duds.
4. Speaking on women rights back in 2014 Rahul Gandhi  said, "We talk a lot about becoming a superpower in the world but till the women of our country do not feel comfortable and secured, our country cannot become a superpower. And to tell you the truth, we don’t want such a superpower status, where women are not empowered. One thing I have learnt is if you empower women, they can do anything. One important battle we have to win is the women’s reservation Bill in Parliament. We’re not going to let go of it." The BJP had promised during their pre-election rallies that the women’s reservation bill would be passed as soon as they got into power. Despite three and a half years of Modi rule, the bill has not come up in the Lok Sabha so far.
5. Rahul Gandhi while speaking on intolerance had previously said, "Truth and Power are not the same thing. Truth is what stands up to power. Today, there is no doubt that the emperor is completely naked but there is no one with any courage to point it out. When the British came to India, people handed over freedom to them. It was never taken away from us. This could very well happen now. Both the RSS and Mr Modi want to create a country where people live in utmost fear surrendering their voice so that they can rule unhindered. Mr Modi, after locking his cabinet colleagues in a room announced demonetization which wiped off lakhs of jobs. Many media houses have been depicting this as a work of genius even while admitting in private that it was an act of insanity. Most of them have lost their voice." At his recently concluded USA trip, he again said, "What happened to the tolerance that prevailed in India? What happened to the harmony? For thousands of years, India has had a reputation of peace and harmony. This is being challenged. Our most powerful asset is that 1.3 billion people lived happily, non-violently, peacefully. This is something that as Congress people, every single one of us has to defend."
6. On agrarian crisis Rahul Gandhi said in a rally in Maharashtra, "Everyone knows that a farmer needs the support of the nation and the State Government. If you ask any farmer, how much money comes from their farm, then every farmer will tell you – if the MSP is not increased, if there are no rains and no compensation or bonus is given, then they won’t be able to work, and this is the truth behind today’s India."  Criticising the ruling NDA Government, Rahul said in Gujarat "the suit boot government doesn’t do anything for the farmers." Speaking earlier this year to the bereft farmers from Tamil Nadu, he said,” The farmers have been sitting here for so long. But neither the government nor the Prime Minister is listening to them. The people and farmers of Tamil Nadu deserve to be heard by the Prime Minister who is disrespecting them by not initiating any dialogue. Over the last three years, debt worth Rs 1.4 lakh crore held by 50 industrialists have been written off. Why the same is not being done in case of the farmers? Why are their debts not being waived? It is the Prime Minister’s responsibility to do so.” 
7. Rahul Gandhi has made the 'failed development model of BJP' as the body and soul of his Gujarat campaign. Modi had come to power based on the stellar work he had apparently done in Gujarat which he promised would be juxtaposed to other states as well. But Rahul Gandhi ripped that narrative to pieces saying, "Gujarat model of development can be called toffee model or ‘gubbara’ (balloon) model, which is nothing but loot of public money to benefit big people like Tata and Adani. Modi had given away 45,000 acres belonging to poor farmers and the size of Bihar’s Purnea district to a single person (Adani) at a rate of rupees one per sq metre which is equivalent to the price of a toffee. He gave away the entire stretch of land at a paltry sum of Rs.300 crores. Modi had also provided Rs.10,000 crore loan to Tata Motors for its Nano car project at 0.1% interest, while the common man get loan from banks at 12% interest. For every Nano car, the Gujarat government is providing Rs.40,000 assistance. The total budget of the Gujarat government on education, health and other welfare is less than Rs.10,000 crore." Speaking later he added, "Vikas has gone crazy? India’s economy has been destroyed. But everyone is quiet because they are afraid to speak against Narendra Modiji. These are not my words. Senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha has written this in a newspaper article today. Poverty reduction in Gujarat was highlighted as a huge success but reports have since shown that it has been slower than most of the other states. There has been undoubted progress in electrification and infrastructure development but that has mostly played in the hands of the corporate sector with little to no improvement for the masses! If Gujarat model was dissected, an entire thesis could well be written on it with both pros and cons. We would just stop short of calling it a bigger success than it was.
8. We worked for 10 years to bring peace in Kashmir. Speaking in USA on the violence in the valley, Rahul Gandhi said, "PDP was instrumental in bringing youngsters in politics, but the day Modi made alliance with PDP, he destroyed them (PDP). He (Modi) massively opened up space for the terrorists in Kashmir, and you saw the increase in violence.Violence against anybody is wrong. Hatred, anger and violence can destroy us, the politics of polarisation is dangerous. These incidents are making millions feel that they have no future in their country. I lost my father, my grandmother to violence, if I don’t understand violence then who will?"

Read the source article

Rahul Gandhi blames the BJP for spreading abuses about him

BJP wins Gujarat & HP without shine & bragging rights

 

  

• BJP winning (1) Gujarat six times in a row and (2) winning Himachal Pradesh, ousting Congress, with a 2/3 majority is by no means a small achievement for Modi but what is lacking is its shine and bragging rights.
• With 49.1% of the vote, the BJP lost 10 percentage points from its 2014 Lok Sabha tally.
• NOTA grabbed over 5.5 lakh votes, or just under 2% of the votes polled.
• Gujarat voters have handed the BJP its sixth straight victory, but tempered the win by reducing its majority to 99 – its lowest tally since 1995.
• The ruling BJP won 36 of the total 40 seats spread in six major cities and that saved the day for the BJP in the tight contest between PM Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
• CM Vijay Rupani and DyCM Nitin Patel won their seats while five serving Ministers and Assembly Speaker Ramanlal Vora were defeated.
• The PM Modi’s 20-minute speech reflected his worries and the party’s vulnerabilities despite the victories.
• Though BJP has won despite the anti-incumbency factor, the State polls turned into a photo finish unlike the landslide and much below the BJP’s target of winning 150 seats. Saurashtra, the BJP’s stronghold since 1995, dealt the party a big blow, as the Congress won 30 out of 54 seats in the region.
• In Saurashtra's 11 districts, the BJP got nearly wiped out in 5 districts.
• Most of Modi's speeches at rallies focussed on divisive themes. Mandir-Masjid, Mughals, Pakistan, Ahmed Patel, Salman Nizami, etc., he practised classic dog-whistle politics that might have stoked passions among some sections of the electorate.
• Whatever the BJP leaders may say, the victory by an extremely slim majority and well short of its aim of 150+ seats is a setback.
• With the kind of spirited fight provided by Congress, BJP's proclaimed goal of a “Congress-mukth Bharat” suffers severe set back.
• In Himachal Pradesh, despite the big win, the BJP faced the ignominy of seeing its chief ministerial candidate, Prem Kumar Dhumal, lose to his Congress rival.
• BJP may be tempted to believe that neither demonetisation nor the flawed roll-out of the GST regime has dented its support among traders and the middle class. But the heart-stopper in Gujarat has given enough reason for it to rethink, do a reality check and reconnect with the remoter parts of India.

Notwithstanding the fact that BJP won Gujarat elections 99/80 defeating Congress, the truth is that Modi has addressed 34 rallies & 97 road shows campaigned like a CM not as a PM, never mentioning any of his development schemes but relied entirely on divisive & religious polarisation, Pakistan, Mughals, Muslims, Mandir-Masjid, abusing Congress leaders and arousing passions etc. Modi did everything like a street politician to win elections forgetting that he is holding office of PM and is oath bound to uphold its dignity and sweated like never before. On other hand Rahul Gandhi, in the company of 3 young turks, was at ease engaging people questioning ruling party of its failures, visiting temples, raising concerns of agrarian distress, unemployment, failed demonetisation and GST etc. While Modi was assisted by his entire central cabinet & several other BJP leaders from other states Rahul Gandhi was virtually alone. Modi put Gujarat above nation by postponing parliament's winter session and condensing its duration so that he could campaign more in Gujarat. Modi subverted EC by influencing it in delaying announcing poll schedule to enable his announcing sops to Gujarat. The kind of money spent for BJP's campaigning and liquor flowing in this dry state has dented his claim as crusader against corruption and black money. Modi's spectacular show in riding the sea plane (specially flown from Karachi for this show) a day before campaign ended is in violation of his own security protocol. Modi’s penchant for style and no substance has a chilling similarity with Mussolini’s Fascist Italy with less concerns for efficient governing of people in solving their economic problems but focused more on the spectacle of power, on the visual and impressive display of symbols, myths and rituals. With BJP winning 99/80 against Congress Modi diminished himself while Rahul Gandhi stood taller posing as a challenger for 2019 general election while his dream of  “Congress-mukth Bharat” stands buried. Like any other programmable computers, tampering EVMs is neither easy nor very difficult and its alleged tampering by BJP will never be known. The talk of the town is that many Modi's cabinet colleagues silently wished defeat of BJP in Gujarat so that he starts learning to walk on the ground. In order to preserve our democracy it is necessary to have a narrow & rigid election campaigning code and also prohibit constitutional office bearers taking up any assignment for a period of two years after retirement.

Modi's vitriolic in Gujarat campaign

Manmohan Singh's statement

• In Gujarat electoral campaign, while Modi seems to be sweating a lot to avoid any possibility of a humiliating defeat, Rahul Gandhi was at ease in engaging people, delivering speeches and taking decisions indicating his confidence of sure victory. 
• While there is no mention of  much publicized "Gujarat Vikas" in Modi's speeches, Rahul was at ease raising several people's issues like demonetization, GST, unemployment and so on.  
• In order to leave no stone upturned to win, Modi forgot that he is PM of he nation and began to resort to unconnected issues and bombarding with low level allegations incompatible to his status. He stooped to unimaginable lows that even ardent BJP & Modi fans were amused with contempt at his vitriolic.
• Whether Congress win or lose, this tough fight is sure to change BJP's future course of policy decisions in the light of several state elections in 2018 and general election in 2019.
• The arrogant and dictatorial attitudes of Modi are likely to soften and and also make him face internal dissent and desertions arising out of distress in economy, agriculture, unemployment, etc.
• In any case Gujarat elections and Rahul Gandhi were able to ground Modi and make see him the realities on the ground and to go forward with caution at least here after.

Having lost almost every election since 2014, Rahul Gandhi has very little to lose but resurgent and winning Congress will destroy Modi's evil grip on BJP. This coupled with financial distress will change the direction of financial reforms especially with several state elections in 2018 and general election in 2019. India has lost enough with evil Modi and it is time to dump him out. Time and again non Congress parties have squandered opportunity and proved that Congress is superior to them. Modi has so far proved to be worst of all PM's bettering only VP Singh. Rahul Gandhi with is back ground and good mannerisms proved to be a gentlemen while Modi is best at his street language. Young Rahul Gandhi is better for the nation rather than old & spiteful Modi.

What is Gujarat model of development by Modi?

The word ‘development’ as a buzzword is in vogue for almost 60 years and its actual meaning is still elusive, since it depends on where and by whom it is used. President Truman merely wanted to include in his 1949 Inaugural Address as a fourth point that would sound ‘a bit original’. So from the very beginning, no one not even the US President really knew what ‘development’ was all about. Development fail to address poverty or to narrow the gap between rich and poor, but in fact it both widens and deepens this division and ultimately creates poverty, as natural resources and human beings alike are increasingly harnessed to the pursuit of consumption and profit.  'Development' has been widely used as a hard drug, addiction to which may stimulate the blissful feelings that typify artificial paradises. Development is not a buzzword but a toxic word.

• The Gujarat assembly elections have put under intense scrutiny Narendra Modi’s Gujarat model of development which is touted as worthy of replication throughout the country. Audit reports of the CAG provide ample evidence of it being inefficient, corrupt and not beneficial to the common people. 
• The standard indicators of development comprise a range of indices, and not necessarily the level of private investment in an economy. A combination of economic growth and redistributive justice ensues from the overall development of a state or a nation. Narendra Modi’s Gujarat model of development and its skewed impact on indicators that constitute holistic and comprehensive development doesn't include the quality of human life and is not a “development” at all. It appears that this model of development has been vulgarised to mean something quite different.
• Gujarat’s transformation under the then chief minister Modi for over a decade between 2001 and 2014, is based on perception rather than facts. The development is based on economic statistics rather than the parameters that reflect well being of lower classes. The harsh truth is that his claims of success as Gujarat CM were overly exaggerated.
• In his maiden speech in the Lok Sabha in June 2014, Modi said that the Gujarat model could not be universalized, and that India being a vast country, there was a need for many different models.
• Today, Gujarat stands nowhere with reference to common man. It is only haven for large investors with quid pro quo benefits to Modi & BJP.
• While demonetisation was aimed at disarming cash rich opposition for winning UP elections, GST and tax terrorism is aimed at promoting large & MNC businesses while dealing a deadly blow to informal sector which doesn't contribute to coffers and both failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and loaded the nation with unintended consequences. Yet he successfully convinces people that he is working for welfare of poorest people with his rhetoric and hammering selective truths while pursuing his own agenda.
• Gujarat elections will teach him that he can't fool all the people all the times.

In Modi's  Gujarat profit was privatized but loss was socialized, shamelessly

The rise of Narendra Modi ,... Vinod Jose

Modi suffers from worst possible type of corruption; an insatiable desire for personal glory at any cost; an extremely deep moral and spiritual corruption. Modi belongs to the line of autocratic ideologues rather than the western tradition of revolutionary neo liberalism, or marxist rationalism. He also represents the worst aspect of democracy: a demagogue who caters to an irrational populace’s cravings for self-identity and release from self-responsibility. He might not have taken any bribes in recent years but there is no way he could have risen to his position without having made massive and horrendous economic & moral compromises ... as described by Jayant Bhandari.

Hardik Patel, the BJP's tormentor-in-chief

Despite five consecutive defeats, the Congress has proved to be a tenacious opponent for BJP in Gujarat elections. In the 2012 assembly elections, the votes difference between the BJP and Congress was just over 10% per cent. The BJP's 115 (out of 182) seat victory was a close contest in many constituencies, with margin less than 5,000 votes. The pre-election sentiment in Gujarat is clear. The BJP is in a weaker position. 

• Not only Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is making an impact, but the Congress's axis with Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh makes it a formidable adversary. A 6% vote swing could prove catastrophic for the BJP.
• A 24-year-old Hardik Patel, has become the BJP's biggest electoral headache. Alpesh Thakor, 40, a leader from the OBC Kshatriya-Thakor community and  Jignesh Mevani, 36, a Dalit leader from Una are political influencers within their communities. The trio has teamed up with the Congress ensuring a straight fight against the BJP and BJP is in deep trouble.

Hardik Patel (24)

• Hardik's battle for reservation began when his sister was denied a scholarship in 2015 and a friend of hers with lower marks managed under the OBC quota. But that was merely a trigger. A skilful orator since his schooldays, Hardik Patel only honed his skills while he was in college and is now putting them to good use.
• Political ambition is what drives Hardik. In his first rally seeking reservation for Patels in July 2015 in Visnagar in north Gujarat his supporters allegedly beat up the local Patel MLA. On Aug 25, he addressed a massive Patel rally for reservation at Ahmedabad, asking then CM Anandiben Patel to come to the venue and take a representation from him. A savage police lathicharge by 4,000 policemen sent the Patels across large parts of Gujarat on a rampage, attacking police stations and uprooting railway lines. This provoked further police retaliation resulting in the death of 14 Patels.
• When other leaders need to have crowds 'organised' for their public meetings, Hardik's public rallies draw crowds of anywhere between 10,000 and 40,000 in big meetings and 5,000-10,000 in small village meetings. His anti-BJP rhetoric has struck a chord among Patels, particularly the youth in the community. The core of his appeal is emotional-revenge for the death of the 14 Patels killed in police firing during the 2015 pro-reservation agitation. And who better to avenge the Patels than a leader jailed for 10 months and banished from Gujarat on charges of waging war against the nation?
• "Don't forget the atrocities committed on Patels by this government in 2015," Hardik repeats at each rally. "They killed 14 youths and didn't spare even mothers and sisters while thrashing us. The time to take revenge on the BJP for those atrocities has come."
• At a rally, he urges crowds to dispassionately vote against the BJP. "Even if my father or mother contests on a BJP ticket, your only response should be to defeat them. The BJP is so opportunistic that if Dawood joins their party, they will say the 1993 blast victims died of Chikungunya."
• A series of strategic mistakes by the BJP have fueled the rise of Hardik and turned him into a hero within his community. It did not punish the policemen who targeted the Patels in 2015. Instead, it slapped sedition charges on Hardik thinking he would break. But months of jail and banishment failed to crush his spirit. Then the BJP tried to slap police charges on him, leaked footage of his meetings with Rahul Gandhi, tried to buy out his colleagues like Varun Patel and Reshma Patel and then, finally, tried to take advantage of the sex CD, which Hardik alleges they themselves made. However, all this has only served to strengthen the halo around him and cement the lore of a 24-year-old David taking on the mighty Goliath.
• Since Feb 2016, Hardik has addressed 250 rallies, both big and small. There are farmers, youth and women in the gathering. But his core audience almost always comprises Patels. And that is what is giving the BJP sleepless nights. The Patel community was BJP's primary vote bank since 1985. Patels form less than 14% of Gujarat's population but are a political force that have a tendency to vote en bloc when they feel strongly about an issue.
• On Nov 18, 2017 when three 'sex' CDs allegedly involving Hardik Patel were being discussed on several TV channels, Hardik teared into BJP "I have lived as many years as the BJP has been in power in Gujarat? Instead of making a sex CD of a 24-year-old, unmarried boy, the BJP should make CDs to show people what it has done for Gujarat in these 22 years. Why farmers are in distress in the state and why there is joblessness though it has ruled Gujarat for two decades," he thundered, in chaste Gujarati.
• The crowd erupted. If the CDs were intended to paint Patel as a sex fiend, they seemed to have had the opposite effect; he's very much a local hero.
• At another roadside gathering, Hardik continues in the same vein. "The time has come to defeat the tanashahi (imperiousness) of the BJP. Using unethical means and misusing power to defeat political rivals reflect its arrogance. The more it resorts to unethical means, the more the people will react against it."
• It's difficult to believe the 24-year-old has become the BJP's biggest nightmare. Hardik displays a political maturity way beyond his years and his astuteness and ability to turn crisis into opportunity is something BJP is worried about. 
• When the sex CDs surfaced he called the BJP "sex CD experts" and went on to rebuke "That's their main weapon when it comes to putting down rivals. They think if they can't win in a straight contest they can win by intimidation. These CDs are morphed, but even if they weren't, does it justify what the BJP did?" Sensing that they had lost the battle, the BJP beat a hasty retreat, distancing itself from the CDs after an initial attempt to exploit the footage to pull down Hardik.
• Patel votes matter substantially in nearly 70 of Gujarat's 182 assembly seats and less significantly in two dozen seats. Worryingly for the BJP traditional rivals of the Patels, are not turning towards the BJP. 
• An independent psephologist, who has conducted two surveys on Gujarat, one in Aug and Oct 2017, says the BJP's vote lead over the Congress has registered a precipitous fall from 30% to 6% in three months.
• Hardik's mother chips in: "When he was in jail, he was offered a huge sum by the BJP to join the party's Yuva Morcha." The BJP denies the charge.
• Hardik has an electric connect with the crowds. Anyone who comes to his public meeting, can't leave till his speech ends - says a political analyst. The BJP has an edge in the election thanks to the PM Modi's charisma but still Hardik is "the BJP's tormentor-in-chief".
• Congress party's political fortunes might seem brighter than they were three months back thanks to the support of the three Young Turks and the new-found appeal of Rahul Gandhi and the efforts of party leaders. 
• Modi addressed rallies in Kutch, Saurashtra and Surat tearing into the Congress with his one-liners. "I will sell tea but not our nation," he thundered at a rally in Saurashtra. 
• In BJP, caste has for the first time in many years played a key role in the selection of candidates. And Patels have been the gainers in ticket distribution in both the parties. The BJP has given them 53 seats and the Congress 47, the highest by the party in many years. 
• The questionable implementation of the GST, the resultant job losses, has altered the situation. and none in Gujarat believe the BJP will get 150 seats. 
• Modi has prevailed upon BJP strategists, including Amit Shah, to project a softer image of the party before the people as he thinks that the defection politics and highhandedness it has practised against its rivals could cost them dear. 
• Modi is subtly hinting at the benefits of having the BJP in power in both Delhi and Gandhinagar. Vote for the BJP and the benefits to Gujarat will continue. But the impact on the electorate as yet is unclear.
• Meanwhile, as many as 40 central and state ministers have been deployed in the state to ensure the victory of the BJP. The BJP's posh party headquarters is buzzing with central ministers, MPs and office-bearers from across the country dropping in.
• Congress is projecting itself a pro-Hindu party, this time, and 9.67% Muslims in Gujarat stands ignored and are keeping their cards close to chest. Muslims have significant presence in at least 25 assembly constituencies. Muslims are divided and dummy candidates ensure that Muslim votes are divided. In the end, Muslims pushed to margins have to chose the party which causes least damage to them.

Winning elections is one thing and retaining power is another thing. Winning often depends on anti-incumbency and some funny vote catching issues rather than any larger issues, efforts for retaining power makes powerful people stoop to levels of indecency and loss of character. Today what we are seeing in Modi is the second one. Modi and BJP having failed to perform to the levels they projected themselves are running from pillar to post to retain power which rarely works. Politicians lying and abusing is rampant in India, but Prime Minister lying and abusing appears awkward. Even God can't save Modi & BJP in Gujarat elections from their misdeeds and blatant lies. December 18th is not far away.

Modi never walks the talk

• In all three manifestos (2002, 2007 & 2012) released by Narendra Modi, as Gujarat chief minister, he often says, “Mai jo bolta hun, woh kar ke dikhata hun [What I say, I do].” 
• But, only a fraction of the manifesto promises by the BJP have actually materialized in his 13 year rule of Gujarat.
• The demand for jobs in Gujarat is very high. Two months ago, the Gujarat State Road Transport Corporation held interviews to recruit 600 conductors. As many as 12 lakh people applied. Similarly, there were 14 lakh applicants for the post of 1,100 talatis (village accountants).
• In its 2002 and 2007 manifestos, the BJP had promised farmers power supply for 14 hours. But the supply was for eight to ten hours, at the best.
• In 2012, the BJP announced a scheme to build 50 lakh pucca homes for the poor in five years. Less than two lakh of them have been built.
• In 2002, the BJP spoke about educating girl children and achieving 100% literacy by 2008. More than 35% of women and 16% of men, still remain illiterate.
• The gap between the poor and the rich has increased, and there is not much investment in rural infrastructure. The lives of poor have not improved.
• BJP’s credibility has taken a beating because its achievements have not matched its tall claims. The goal of any political party is to win elections. The problem with the BJP is that it exaggerates what has been done.

If the Congress party wins, it will be a vote against dictatorship ... Hardik Patel

Of late the Prime Minister Modi developed habit of coming out with new ideas and schemes very often, even when his earlier schemes were badly implemented or ended up in colossal failures, and goes ahead with them without discussion, inviting suggestions or adequate preparation which is an ingredient for its failure. But his spectacular launching publicity will hypnotize people (including well educated class) and they will be waiting for positive result will come some how, sooner or later. But miracles won't happen in real life.

Vikas gando thayo chhe (Gujarat development gone berserk)

Man telling his curious friends that he is "looking for vikas"

Viral social media campaign on poor infrastructure has the party worried ahead of polls

The much vaunted ‘Gujarat model of development’, once the poster-child of economists, has “gone crazy”, according to the top trending hashtag on social media. With State elections barely two months away, the ruling BJP is worried.

Over the past two weeks, witty posts, satirical memes, and audio-visual capsules — all with the Gujarati hashtag, ‘vikas gando thayo chhe’ (‘Development has gone crazy’) — have gone viral on Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp. Mostly shared by youngsters, it has turned into a trending social media campaign that has put the ruling BJP on the defensive.

The campaign began spontaneously after the monsoon rains that left potholes in roads across the State, including in cities such as Ahmedabad, and the government’s claims about smart cities and world class infrastructure took a beating. Soon, people started sharing photographs or video clips of caved-in roads, decrepit State transport buses, roadside garbage dumps, flooded streets, and figures of swine flu-related deaths, all tagged with the catchy ‘vikas’ punch line.

Sensing an opportunity, the Congress party’s social media teams latched on to the campaign. As the phenomenon became a talking point across age groups, Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani responded by blaming the Congress. “Those who are saying ‘vikas gando thayo chhe’ have themselves gone crazy,” he said. Recently, party president Amit Shah felt compelled to ask the State’s youth not to “fall prey to anti-BJP social media campaigns.”

However, many BJP leaders admit that they are unable to counter the forceful social media posts on fuel price hikes, high GST rates, and job losses.

“This campaign is a huge success. Even BJP supporters are forwarding these posts,” said Saral Patel, a Congress social media volunteer.

Though the Congress social media team has taken credit, the phrase “Vikas gando thayo chhe” is attributed to 20-year-old Sagar Savalia, a civil engineering student and member of the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti which leads the Patidar quota agitation.

“On August 23, I received some photographs of a dilapidated State transport bus. I forwarded them with the line, ‘Stay Away! Vikas has gone crazy in Gujarat’, and it went viral,” Mr. Savalia told The Hindu.

Modi & co will not learn lessons on their own. They must be dumped into garbage. Otherwise they will destroy the nation beyond recognition with their funny adventures. They don't know how to rule a nation democratically. The present 5.7% GDP growth if corrected with low oil regime benefit and fudging economic data with new parameters, the real GDP growth will be less than 2% and massive job losses indicates economic collapse of nation!