Hardik Patel, the BJP's tormentor-in-chief

Despite five consecutive defeats, the Congress has proved to be a tenacious opponent for BJP in Gujarat elections. In the 2012 assembly elections, the votes difference between the BJP and Congress was just over 10% per cent. The BJP's 115 (out of 182) seat victory was a close contest in many constituencies, with margin less than 5,000 votes. The pre-election sentiment in Gujarat is clear. The BJP is in a weaker position. 

• Not only Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is making an impact, but the Congress's axis with Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh makes it a formidable adversary. A 6% vote swing could prove catastrophic for the BJP.
• A 24-year-old Hardik Patel, has become the BJP's biggest electoral headache. Alpesh Thakor, 40, a leader from the OBC Kshatriya-Thakor community and  Jignesh Mevani, 36, a Dalit leader from Una are political influencers within their communities. The trio has teamed up with the Congress ensuring a straight fight against the BJP and BJP is in deep trouble.

Hardik Patel (24)

• Hardik's battle for reservation began when his sister was denied a scholarship in 2015 and a friend of hers with lower marks managed under the OBC quota. But that was merely a trigger. A skilful orator since his schooldays, Hardik Patel only honed his skills while he was in college and is now putting them to good use.
• Political ambition is what drives Hardik. In his first rally seeking reservation for Patels in July 2015 in Visnagar in north Gujarat his supporters allegedly beat up the local Patel MLA. On Aug 25, he addressed a massive Patel rally for reservation at Ahmedabad, asking then CM Anandiben Patel to come to the venue and take a representation from him. A savage police lathicharge by 4,000 policemen sent the Patels across large parts of Gujarat on a rampage, attacking police stations and uprooting railway lines. This provoked further police retaliation resulting in the death of 14 Patels.
• When other leaders need to have crowds 'organised' for their public meetings, Hardik's public rallies draw crowds of anywhere between 10,000 and 40,000 in big meetings and 5,000-10,000 in small village meetings. His anti-BJP rhetoric has struck a chord among Patels, particularly the youth in the community. The core of his appeal is emotional-revenge for the death of the 14 Patels killed in police firing during the 2015 pro-reservation agitation. And who better to avenge the Patels than a leader jailed for 10 months and banished from Gujarat on charges of waging war against the nation?
• "Don't forget the atrocities committed on Patels by this government in 2015," Hardik repeats at each rally. "They killed 14 youths and didn't spare even mothers and sisters while thrashing us. The time to take revenge on the BJP for those atrocities has come."
• At a rally, he urges crowds to dispassionately vote against the BJP. "Even if my father or mother contests on a BJP ticket, your only response should be to defeat them. The BJP is so opportunistic that if Dawood joins their party, they will say the 1993 blast victims died of Chikungunya."
• A series of strategic mistakes by the BJP have fueled the rise of Hardik and turned him into a hero within his community. It did not punish the policemen who targeted the Patels in 2015. Instead, it slapped sedition charges on Hardik thinking he would break. But months of jail and banishment failed to crush his spirit. Then the BJP tried to slap police charges on him, leaked footage of his meetings with Rahul Gandhi, tried to buy out his colleagues like Varun Patel and Reshma Patel and then, finally, tried to take advantage of the sex CD, which Hardik alleges they themselves made. However, all this has only served to strengthen the halo around him and cement the lore of a 24-year-old David taking on the mighty Goliath.
• Since Feb 2016, Hardik has addressed 250 rallies, both big and small. There are farmers, youth and women in the gathering. But his core audience almost always comprises Patels. And that is what is giving the BJP sleepless nights. The Patel community was BJP's primary vote bank since 1985. Patels form less than 14% of Gujarat's population but are a political force that have a tendency to vote en bloc when they feel strongly about an issue.
• On Nov 18, 2017 when three 'sex' CDs allegedly involving Hardik Patel were being discussed on several TV channels, Hardik teared into BJP "I have lived as many years as the BJP has been in power in Gujarat? Instead of making a sex CD of a 24-year-old, unmarried boy, the BJP should make CDs to show people what it has done for Gujarat in these 22 years. Why farmers are in distress in the state and why there is joblessness though it has ruled Gujarat for two decades," he thundered, in chaste Gujarati.
• The crowd erupted. If the CDs were intended to paint Patel as a sex fiend, they seemed to have had the opposite effect; he's very much a local hero.
• At another roadside gathering, Hardik continues in the same vein. "The time has come to defeat the tanashahi (imperiousness) of the BJP. Using unethical means and misusing power to defeat political rivals reflect its arrogance. The more it resorts to unethical means, the more the people will react against it."
• It's difficult to believe the 24-year-old has become the BJP's biggest nightmare. Hardik displays a political maturity way beyond his years and his astuteness and ability to turn crisis into opportunity is something BJP is worried about. 
• When the sex CDs surfaced he called the BJP "sex CD experts" and went on to rebuke "That's their main weapon when it comes to putting down rivals. They think if they can't win in a straight contest they can win by intimidation. These CDs are morphed, but even if they weren't, does it justify what the BJP did?" Sensing that they had lost the battle, the BJP beat a hasty retreat, distancing itself from the CDs after an initial attempt to exploit the footage to pull down Hardik.
• Patel votes matter substantially in nearly 70 of Gujarat's 182 assembly seats and less significantly in two dozen seats. Worryingly for the BJP traditional rivals of the Patels, are not turning towards the BJP. 
• An independent psephologist, who has conducted two surveys on Gujarat, one in Aug and Oct 2017, says the BJP's vote lead over the Congress has registered a precipitous fall from 30% to 6% in three months.
• Hardik's mother chips in: "When he was in jail, he was offered a huge sum by the BJP to join the party's Yuva Morcha." The BJP denies the charge.
• Hardik has an electric connect with the crowds. Anyone who comes to his public meeting, can't leave till his speech ends - says a political analyst. The BJP has an edge in the election thanks to the PM Modi's charisma but still Hardik is "the BJP's tormentor-in-chief".
• Congress party's political fortunes might seem brighter than they were three months back thanks to the support of the three Young Turks and the new-found appeal of Rahul Gandhi and the efforts of party leaders. 
• Modi addressed rallies in Kutch, Saurashtra and Surat tearing into the Congress with his one-liners. "I will sell tea but not our nation," he thundered at a rally in Saurashtra. 
• In BJP, caste has for the first time in many years played a key role in the selection of candidates. And Patels have been the gainers in ticket distribution in both the parties. The BJP has given them 53 seats and the Congress 47, the highest by the party in many years. 
• The questionable implementation of the GST, the resultant job losses, has altered the situation. and none in Gujarat believe the BJP will get 150 seats. 
• Modi has prevailed upon BJP strategists, including Amit Shah, to project a softer image of the party before the people as he thinks that the defection politics and highhandedness it has practised against its rivals could cost them dear. 
• Modi is subtly hinting at the benefits of having the BJP in power in both Delhi and Gandhinagar. Vote for the BJP and the benefits to Gujarat will continue. But the impact on the electorate as yet is unclear.
• Meanwhile, as many as 40 central and state ministers have been deployed in the state to ensure the victory of the BJP. The BJP's posh party headquarters is buzzing with central ministers, MPs and office-bearers from across the country dropping in.
• Congress is projecting itself a pro-Hindu party, this time, and 9.67% Muslims in Gujarat stands ignored and are keeping their cards close to chest. Muslims have significant presence in at least 25 assembly constituencies. Muslims are divided and dummy candidates ensure that Muslim votes are divided. In the end, Muslims pushed to margins have to chose the party which causes least damage to them.

Winning elections is one thing and retaining power is another thing. Winning often depends on anti-incumbency and some funny vote catching issues rather than any larger issues, efforts for retaining power makes powerful people stoop to levels of indecency and loss of character. Today what we are seeing in Modi is the second one. Modi and BJP having failed to perform to the levels they projected themselves are running from pillar to post to retain power which rarely works. Politicians lying and abusing is rampant in India, but Prime Minister lying and abusing appears awkward. Even God can't save Modi & BJP in Gujarat elections from their misdeeds and blatant lies. December 18th is not far away.

Cautious consumer spending is a drag on economy

• It is a tough time to be in the retail business with consumers spending cautiously.  Demonetisation has developed a psychology among customers to spend only on essential items. 
• Post demonetisation, cash situation might get normalised soon, but when this psychology will change is unpredictable.
• Retailers suffer worst as broader pattern of consumers becoming more cautious with their money.
• Struggling with customers unable to pay on time and plummeting sales, Indian small-businesses fears the government's crackdown on cash will have a much larger impact than predicted by top policymakers. It wasn't certain when things will get back to normal as much depends on a revival in consumer spending.
• Consumer confidence has fallen sharply with households uncertain about their income, employment and spending capability.
• Even Amazon and Flipkart will get affected.
• It's important not just for retailers, but for the whole economy.
• Total household consumption sector accounts for over 50% of GDP and any broad-based slowdown in spending will have widespread impacts.
• It's harder to cut back on education, or health, or electricity expenses than spending on clothing etc and hence retail trade that accounts for about a third of total household consumption suffers drastic effect.
• Retail trade is an important indicator of how willing households are to spend their cash, and  the weakness in retail is important for the economy.
• Turnover is likely to fall in decline in food, cafe and restaurant spending, and household goods.
• Low wages growth, higher utility bills, rise in interest, joblessness, underemployment, insecure future and household indebtedness are some reasons for cautious household spending. 
• All these causes greater caution may well mean consumers play a smaller role in kicking along economic growth.
• Unless consumer get some wage growth, he is going to be really cautious, and that makes it really difficult.
• In the past, consumers have been happy to save a lower portion of their income and support their spending. It's the result of households feeling wealthier due to the property boom. 
• They may be reluctant to continue cutting back on their savings when the biggest asset most people own – their house – is no longer gaining value as it has.
• It's a disaster that jobs growth has shrunk, a bad news for spending.

Modi should realize that having destroyed booming Indian economy with his 'hare brained demonetization' and 'badly rolled out noble GST', economic recovery and reversal are not going to be with out pain. The best way is to fund is to increase household spending by middle & lower classes by aggressive welfare measures and infrastructure spending. The only way to mobile funds is to tax the rich for this purpose. Increasing budget deficit will only hurt middle & lower classes and slows down foreign capital inflows. Slowing down ongoing projects will hurt powerful businessmen. Funding banks recapitalization with bonds will only drain banks and PSU's surplus cash and serves no purpose. Funding banks recapitalization with budget support means money meant for middle & poorer classes will end up in rich men's pocket and will not boost consumption. So what ever Modi & Jaitley does now consequences will be disastrous. Not doing any thing will also be worst. Demonetization and GST resulted in evaporation of over Rs.3-4 lakhs crores from economy and recouping that much amount is painfully slow over several years. In short, India lost 3-4 years for Modi's adventures and experiments.

What eased doing business in India?

• India jumped up 30 notches into the top 100 rankings on the World Bank’s ‘ease of doing business’ index, thanks to major improvements in indicators such as resolving insolvency, paying taxes, protecting minority investors and getting credit.
• While the jump is impressive, that is not the whole story. Excepting few increases due to increase in computerisation everywhere, nothing much has changed on the ground.
• Modi hailed the jump in India’s ranking as “historic” and said it was a result of “all-round and multi-sectoral reform push.” Jaitley said India’s jump is the highest by any country, and that reaching the ‘top 50’ target set by Prime Minister Modi is “doable”. These guys bombard with publicity every minor uptick but avoids talking about negatives whether it it happened on its own or whether they have done it is immaterial. 
• This ease of doing business in India helps only large corporates and MNCs and has nothing do with informal businesses which contributes 45% GDP and 80% jobs, that stands decimated by Modi's 'hare brained demonetisation' and 'badly implimented noble GST'.
• The persistent problems of India namely agraian distress, joblessness, spiralling down of economy, healthcare & education in doldrums and so on has nothing to with this ‘ease of doing business’.
• While common man continues to suffer, government's coffers could see increased inflows over time.