Nandyal bypoll result - Jagan lives in denial

• The Nandyal by-election was projected to be seen as a referendum on the three years of the AP's TDP chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's rule.
• 25 years ago, the TDP under NT Rama Rao conceded a walkover in Nandyal for the Lok Sabha bypoll, enabling Telugu bidda PV Narsimha Rao win the seat after becoming prime minister. 
• In 2014, YSRCP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy won defeating TDP's Silpa Mohan Reddy by a slender majority of 2% votes. 
• In an extremely unethical political situation, Late Bhuma Nagi Reddy's nephew is pitted as TDP's candidate against YSRCP's Silpa Mohan Reddy after a spate of defections and, AP Speaker doing nothing about the defections, and due to death of TDP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy.
• The established norm is that when an MP or MLA dies mid-term, the party holding the seat is allowed a no-contest, with the other party not putting up a candidate. Nandyal is a peculiar situation, where both the YSRCP and the candidate's family (of TDP) asked each other to back off, making a contest inevitable.
• Naidu has taken the by-election very seriously. He has involved all party seniors, and has campaigned extensively himself, making it a prestigious battle. The TDP chief has personally reached out to different community leaders, distributing sops to the electorate to ensure victory for the ruling party.
• Naidu even issued a subtle threat to those who wouldn't vote for the TDP, saying he will have nothing to do with those villages. He said, "You take pension doled out by my government, walk on the roads laid by my administration, take ration and use the glow of the streetlights erected by us. Why wouldn't you vote for us?"
• Naidu keeping BJP state leaders out of election campaign and avoiding Muslims wrath, who are 20% of voters, was a good strategy that paid off.
• Nandyal is the first political test for Nara Lokesh, Naidu's son, party general secretary and the state IT minister. It is one thing to lure Opposition MLAs to the ruling camp by using political clout, and quite another to win an election. The victory proved Lokesh's credentials as a politician. 
• For the YSRCP, Nandyal was the best chance to show anti-incumbency. Its loss is likely to result in more migrations from YSRCP to TDP in the next two years. 
• While TDP is largely seen as a Kamma dominated party, YSRCP has a larger Reddy community presence. In the Reddy vs Reddy fierce battle, YSRCP's defeat confirmed weakened Reddy community support to YSRCP that Jagan enjoyed in the past. 
• Nandyal has voters of 20% Muslims & 10% Vysyas and large Dalits as well. TDP victory is seen as its patronization by Muslims, Vysyas & Dalits apart from Reddys as well.
• The Nandyal defeat is severe setback for Prashant Kishore, YSRCP strategist for 2019. Kishor was introduced to the party three months ago, with Jagan saying that Kishor will help them in 'Mission 2019'. It is rumored that Kishor charged Jagan hefty fees of Rs.50 crores.
• Nothing will change for the people of Nandyal. Politics in India, especially that in the Rayalaseema region of AP, is practised that members of one or two families are allowed hegemony over a constituency for decades. Nandyal is no exception as the leaders move from one party to another and their support base moves with them, like a herd.
• Both TDP & YSRCP are believed to have spent about Rs.500 crores and vote-for-cash is rumored between Rs.2,000 & Rs.5,000. 

If we don't learn on our own, adversity will teach us lessons 

Since 2004 Nandyal was bastion of Reddys from Congress & later YSR Congress. With this bypoll TDP regained its lost hold after two decades. Extending - it indicates erosion of Jagan's grip in Rayalaseema due to his arrogance and vulgar abuses. Roja filled up where ever there were gaps in abuses. Even after, Jagan lives in denial and will only ruin himself and YSRCP. Now Jagan will have uphill task to hold his folks together with 2019 indications clearly favoring TDP & Chandrababu Naidu. The highlight of this TDP's win is that it fought out alone without involving BJP leaders in campaigning and soliciting support of Pawan Kalyan, whose support probably might have helped TDP winning over YSRCP in 2014 general election with slender majorities in many constituencies.