GST deficit slowly reducing?

 

EENADU Telugu Nov 24, 2017

• GST after disrupting economy for continuously for 5 months limping towards zero deficit.
• In July 2017 it was utter choas, August ended with deficit of 29% (Rs.12,210 crores) improved in September to 24% (Rs.10,343 crores) and further improved during October 2017 to 17.6% (Rs.7,559 crores). Quarterly (Aug-Oct 2017) collection stood at Rs. 98,930 crores against target of Rs.129,042 crores with 23% deficit of Rs.30,111 crores.
• This would enlarge fiscal deficit from 3.2% of GDP to 3.5%. Already GDP growth rate took severe beating nose diving to 4 year low of 5.7% which otherwise should have been 9.1%.
• Oil prices are shooting up with current price at its 4-year high of $63.4 per barrel. The rising prices will further impact our fiscal deficit and inflation.
• The resilient Indian economy withstood impact of harebrained demonetisation and even before it recovered fully, Modi unleashed badly designed GST only to demonstrate that he is bold and his intentions of continuing financial reforms but causality is the nation and its people. Boldness is different from recklessness, he failed to grasp.
• Now, with sentiment completely destroyed, investments at standstill, informal sector decimated, agrarian sector in deep distress, construction paralyzed, empty coffers, wide ranging joblessness, dwindling exports, uncontrolled imports, rising oil prices and so on are having its adverse effects on economy, simultaneously. How long consumption driven economy will survive on a single service sector? There is no one who could pop us up from our self inflicted distressed economy.
• Any economist will tell you that the only way to boost a sagging economy is by increasing government spending on infrastructure thus creating large scale construction jobs and increasing consumption, funding it by widening fiscal space by increasing fiscal deficit even at the risk of higher inflation. Modi is just not doing that and result in near future is anybody's guess.
• Tax terrorism in the form incessant raids by taxmen and trying to impose service tax on software exports with retrospective effect from 2012 will further ruin any chances of economic recovery.
• While GST deficit might become zero by the end this financial year, after 3 quarters, it has left us in deep distress, gravely wounded and uncertain future.
• Who is responsible for this all round distress? ... The answer is Modi and his quack advised Modinomics.

Spending on infrastructure projects could be lower as sluggish GST growth have upset the government’s budget calculations and GDP growth rate is to take a further hit. The revenue shortfall could be over Rs. 80,000 crores if the current trend continues until the end of the year and will force a re-think in government spending. GST's ambiguous rules, onerous return filing system and glitches with its IT back-end have made doing business far more complicated for many companies. Frequent changes in tax rates launch have heightened business uncertainty. Hurried GST roll out had resulted in a lot of chaos and pandemonium. PSU's reduced dividend, RBI's less than half dividend all have impacted government revenues contrary to budget projection of 17% growth in tax collections. Above all, psu banks recapitalisation and rising oil prices needs to be supported from the budget. So where are we heading for?