Sunday 29 April 2018

Political narrative slipping out of Modi’s hands

It is not unusual for governments to become unpopular in their last year or two. But what surprised many is that the same thing happening to Modi, the master communicator, the king of narrative, the man who sets the agenda others follow, the slayer-of-demons who won UP despite the failure of demonetisation, and who knows how many rabbits he could still pull out of his hat.
  • The gory details of the brutalisation of women, recently at Kathua, J&K and Unnao, UP,  shocked people and angry protests followed. PM Modi maintained stoic silence for weeks as usual, breaking his silence only after public outrage, protests that continued even after the government has woken up. April 2018 could well have been December 2012. The intensity then was much greater, but the pattern is similar.
  • The government appears to be out of control and has lost its grip over the political narrative. Every week there’s a new crisis that makes the government look worse than it did the previous weekend. The negative headlines drown out PM Modi’s photo-ops.
  • A year ago, after winning UP elections with three-fourths majority, the Modi government looked so powerful people thought it would rule forever. Everyone had exclaimed. Modi and Shah inspired fear and awe alike. 
  • On July 31,2017, the provincial princeling of Patna, Nitish Kumar, felt compelled to give into the force of gravity, falling into the BJP’s waiting arms. Nobody can defeat Modi in 2019, he had declared triumphantly.
  • Exactly a month later, on 31 August, GDP for the Q1 of 2017-18 were published. India’s GDP had fallen to 5.7%, the impact of demonetisation was writ large. It was clear that things weren’t going to look up anytime soon because the mangled, badly designed and hurriedly rolled out and messy implementation of GST on July 1, 2017 slowed down business activity and hurt job creation. 
  • UP voters knew the truth is that demonetisation had failed to save any black money but voted for the BJP for other reasons. But demonetisation and GST hurt everything: jobs, rural economy, private investment, government revenues, consumer confidence and so on. The government cherry-picked economic data to defend itself. Spin-doctoring can make you believe any lies except the bit about the money in your pocket. 
  • The government managed to carry the political narrative over disastrous demonetisation and GST as successes, only till the GDP numbers were out. Since then, the Modi narrative has fallen week after week. Less than a year after the stupendous victory in UP, the Modi juggernaut is not looking beyond the pale of the cycle of anti-incumbency that inevitably follows mandates of hope.
  • Week after week, the Modi government’s own tall promises made through lofty slogans -- Beti Bachao, Digital India, Re-exam warriors, Co-operative federalism, Na khaoonga na khaanay doonga, Chowkidar of public money, Saffron Ambedkar all have boomeranged on Modi's face.
  • I&B minister Smriti Irani’s attempts to muzzle the press with the fake news bogey backfired. An unprecedented press conference by four sitting Supreme Court judges fuelled speculation that the government was interfering with the independence of the judiciary. The government’s attempt to shove Aadhaar down people’s throats without a consensus furthered its anti-democratic image.
  • The BJP’s big reply to its critics was that it keeps winning election after election. The party’s good performance in the NE was overshadowed by its humiliating loss of Gorakhpur & Phulpur in UP. Dalit alienation by Yogi government in UP forced the BSP to ally with SP that raising doubts over the BJP’s election machine.
  • The Gujarat election result was a victory that didn’t feel like one. Instead of improving BJP performance dropped to below 100 seats for the first time since the party’s rise to power, due to farm distress. The story was repeated in bypolls in Rajasthan’s Ajmer and Alwar. Farm distress and unemployment both became big stories that overshadowed the government’s tall claims. This, more than anything else, cast doubts over the party’s invincibility, and the inevitability of their 2019 victory. 
With an year to go for the 2019 general elections, Narendra Modi landed himself perfectly on a sliding slope, with no hope for him to rise and shine again? 


Modi proved himself as the worst PM India ever had, so far, did nothing for poor, peasants, unemployed youth & common man and focused in only enriching richer people, who hitherto fills his coffers. He ruthlessly destroyed informal sector which provides employment to masses but doesn't pay taxes. He has only empty rhetoric promises for them only to be forgotten in next few seconds. He doesn't care for constitution, democracy, rule of the law, laws of the land, institutions, traditions, allies or anything that comes his way. He was only successful at winning almost all elections till date. When he loses elections in 2019, which is almost a certainty, BJP leaders would be more happier than anyone. 


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