AP Elections 2019 - Jagan trounces Naidu

In AP, Assembly seats won: YSRCP 151, TDP 23, Janasena 1
In AP, Lok Sabha seats won: YSRCP 22, TDP 3, Janasena 0.
In AP, Popular Assembly vote share: YSRCP 49.9%, TDP 39.2% and Janasena 6.8%.

Why Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) lost and how Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP) won?

• Chandrababu Naidu had promised virtually the moon but delivered little, during 2014-19. 
• Massive anti-incumbency vote caused by Chandrababu Naidu’s falling credibility and his several political missteps.
• Chandrababu Naidu’s running battle with the BJP-Modi government for the past two years and his U-turns on the critical question of getting special category status had badly dented his credibility.
• Government employees turned hostile because of the use of modern tools such as biometric attendance etc.
• Chandrababu Naidu chose to ignore the corruption and misdeeds of his party legislators who had become unpopular. They had turned into mini-Chief Ministers in their constituencies, bullying officials and extending patronage to land mafias, sand mafias and illegal liquor networks. Chandrababu Naidu refused to drop the majority of siting MLAs.
• The incomplete flyover near the Kanaka Durga temple, Vijayawada, stuck out like a sore thumb. 
• Jagan's 3648 km padayatra. “Why not give him one chance” was the common refrain. Jagan’s direct contact with the people helped him to counter Chandrababu Naidu’s powerful outreach to the media or his media management.
• Jagan outsmarted Chandrababu Naidu by keeping up sustained pressure on the government for failing to get special category status and accusing Chandrababu Naidu that he had murdered democracy by luring 24 YSRCP MLAs into the TDP’s fold.
• Jagan's campaign and his slogans such as “nenu vinna” (I heard your woes) and “nenu vunna” (I am there) resonated with the people.
• Jagan's distasteful personal remarks about Pawan Kalyan, and accusing him of becoming a puppet in Chandrababu Naidu’s hands was unwise & untimely but was lucky at Pawan Kalyan's failure to garner Kapu’s (15.2% of AP population) support with his blurred agenda and the absence of a cohesive election strategy.
• Condescending attitude. Ridiculing Jagan at every  any opportunity on “having so many criminal cases”.
• Over projecting capital Amaravati's land pooling and construction with graphics.
• Chandrababu Naidu’s claims of having pushed the state to the top in the number one position in ease of doing business etc cut no ice with voters. Their anger went much deeper as the party drew a blank in Vizianagaram or the defeat of Nara Lokesh in Mangalagiri, the core capital area?
• Jagan managed to buck the negative image created by the CBI cases against him, often cited by Naidu. Naidu conveniently forgot that Jagan came very close to capturing power in 2014 Assembly elections losing by just 1.6% vote margin. 
• Failure to forge alliance with Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena Party and Left parties. Naidu's last minute welfare schemes failed translate into vote bank.
• People’s expectations have gone up phenomenally. Prashant Kishore sharpened Jagan's style of campaigning and strategy. 

Jagan owes credit for his victory to Prashant Kishor, who have stayed with the YSRCP for nearly two years, guiding its strategy, conducting campaigns, training the cadres, handling social media and press releases etc. YSRCP's Ummareddy Venkateswarlu candidly said: “Naidu’s downfall began the day he brought his son into politics.”

The present model of politics and elections is very expensive and is heavily dependent on unlawful methods, mafia, liquor and yet attracts many people because of power and corruption money with return to investment exceeding 1,000% p.a. for next 5 years in return for compromising ethics and morals. The campaigning is so vulgar the people of character mutes their TV sets. Naidu's failure is due to over confidence, extravaganza in spending state money, over projecting small achievements, inability to avoid fight with Modi-BJP, failure to forge alliance with JSP, Left parties, impress upon other castes to stay put with TDP, failure to garner woman votes and above all state government employees feeling uneasy in his administration and so on. He virtually committed the identical mistakes as in 2004. If at least Naidu had roped in Pawan Kalyan in alliance with TDP, TDP+ would have got about respectable 70-80 seats or even a surprise victory with 90+ seats. Fighting with all in all fronts (Jagan, Pawan, KCR, Modi etc), there is hardly any way for Chandrababu Naidu led TDP to win these  elections. Hence the TDP's defeat is not a surprise at all but crushing defeat of 23 of 175 is totally unexpected and was easily avoidable.

Jayadev Galla's direct warning to Jaitley & Modi

Jayadev Galla's speech in Lok Sabha on Feb 7, 2018

Jayadev Galla's speech - Translation into Telugu

Jayadev Galla's powerful speech in English in American accent, mincing no words in Lok Sabha on Feb 7, 2018 regarding Centre's neglect in Budget 2018-19 allocations shocked BJP and its bosses. Imagine pin drop silence in Lok Sabha.

• We trusted you and waited for 5 budgets. This budget is the final chance for fulfilling your promises to AP.
• I may be new to politics but I do understand trust.
• Your allies are feeling neglected, betrayed and humiliated as of the 5 crore people of AP.
• This budget has no mention of AP Reorganisation Act commitments.
• Some of your party leaders might have convinced you that BJP can grow in AP by breaking the promises and weakening TDP. 
• Congress too was convinced as well in 2014 of a ill advised strategy and paid a very dear price. From being the strongest state Congress went to zero in AP where it is likely to stay for a very long time. Congress thought by betraying people of AP it will win in Telangana with a secret deal with TRS and win in AP with a secret deal with YSRCP. People of AP are no fools and Congress was wiped out in AP. 
• Please don't be of the opinion that the BJP will fare any better if it by treads the wrong path.
• YSRCP is praising the budget, cozying up the central government, shifting the blame from BJP to TDP. People of AP are no fools, they know YSRCP supports who ever is in centre in order to keep their leader out of jail.
• If you think that YSRCP would make a better alliance partner for BJP in AP it would be a serious lapse of judgement and morality. What is the message you have sent to the country by supporting the party whose founder and president is the poster boy of corruption in India.
• AP CM visited New Delhi 29 times met PM, Ministers and submitted report after report and it is shameful for the government to say that they are still waiting for information and/or examining the situation.
• There are 19 items as AP Reorganisation Act alone yet to be fulfilled.
• In Sep 2016 FM 'Special Financial Package' was announces that stated that they will support AP to the hilt. But nothing has been done so far.
• Not mentioning special package requirements of AP in this budget is injustice and deceiving people of AP. 
• Different packages for several other states were announced from time to time and we all know their fate. Hence AP CM asked for legislative backing for AP special package in lieu of Special Category Status which was agreed in Sep 2016 but not done till date.
• Packages given to back ward districts in MP & Orissa received Rs.6,000 crores where as Rayalaseema & Uttarandhra received Rs.1,050 crores till date. We want the package, not a pittance.
• Five main items are ...
• (1) Polavaram revised proposal for Rs.54,000  crores (Land acquisition and R&R 30,000 crores), as per 2014-15 estimates, is pending with GOI.
• (2) Railway zone at Visakhapatnam that requires consultations with neighboring states. This should have been done earlier. Why are we hearing this after 4 years? Are they not delaying tactics?
• (3) No mention about Vijayawada & Visakhapatnam Metro in the budget which provides Rs.17,000 crores for Bengaluru metro, because of Karnataka state elections soon.
• (4) New capital Amaravati requirement is Rs.1,20,000 lakh crores. Rs.42,935 crores required for essential infrastructure like Secretariat, Assembly, Council, Rajbhavan, High court etc. During last 3 years only Rs. 1,500 crores was provided. Demand at least Rs.10,000 crores annually for next five years.
• (5) Institutions of national importance. Pittance so far. With paltry allocations every year will take 10-30 years for completion. AIMS estimate Rs.1,680 crores. So far not a single penny. May be because elections are not coming up in AP.
• Budget 2018-19 allocation for central corporations in AP is Rs.1,814 crores. Much less than the movie 'Baahubali' collections!

If people of AP has given zero seats to Congress for passing AP Reorganisation Act, imagine what they would think about BJP for not fulfilling minimum requirements of this Act. We demand an explanation. Failing which, we have no option than considering you acting in bad faith and certainly have to reconsider why are we in this relationship. This is your last chance to fulfill your promises and maintain your alliance dharma which we maintained patiently so far. It gives us no joy telling you all this. It is now or never. But we still have belief and trust in FM & PM. Let me remind you again that people of AP are no fools. 

You can fool all the people some of the time, 

and some of the people all the time, 

but you cannot fool all the people all the time .... Abraham Lincoln

With this paltry budget allocations BJP's vote share in AP will definitely nosedive from the present 6-8% to close to zero and may not win any seats in elections. BJP MP K. Haribabu, BJP MLA & Minister Kamineni Srinivas and BJP MLA Vishnukumar Raju, sensing this danger, are rumoured to considering joining TDP for contesting next elections. If this happens, BJP gets buried under ground in AP for next 20 years, worse than Congress.

Chandrababu Naidu's extravaganza for personal fancies

Chandrababu Naidu has spent over Rs.100 crores for his personal comforts, chartered flights & fancies. His recent Russian trip with a team and hiring chartered aircraft paying crores of rupees is another addition to the list apart from extravagant swearing in ceremony and capital city's foundation stone laying by PM Modi.

Full article is at : http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Funds-flow-freely-for-Naidus-own-expenses/articleshow/47135892.cms

Lenders & Financiers will always be wary of this type of spending as reflected by Govt of India's withholding budget deficit gap financing for years 2014-15, 2015-16 for thorough scrutiny and other assistance as promised in AP Reorganization Act 2014.

US lawmakers admonished CEO's of GM, Chrysler & Ford for travelling chartered fights from Detroit to Washington DC for seeking $25 billion bailout package from US Federal Government on November 19, 2008, even though it was their standard policy for safety of top executives.

Full article is at: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/11/19/autos.ceo.jets/

If people of AP believes that Chandrababu Naidu will get in funds for investments from abroad, they are mistaken. Funding agencies do thorough due-diligence to ensure that their investments are safe and earn assured returns. And this type of extravaganza falls short of their expectations. Trying to create hype and attract investments by making power point presentations and colorful brochures are of no use when ground reality is contrary to it.

My View:
Chandrababu Naidu acquiring land in the name of "Land Mobilization" for Capital Amaravati is in fact state doing real estate business is unethical & wrong. The right method is to identify land and acquire it, in 5 phases of 5,000 acres each, and pay compensation as per statutes. For the capital all that is needed is to construct Raj Bhawan, Assembly & Council, High Court, Secretariat , Offices & Quarters and some more land for public utility purpose like Convention Center, Guest Houses etc. All put together, 10,000 acres would be sufficient but 25,000 acres would be splendid for accommodating institutions like education city, health city, information technology city, film city, sports village, business & financial districts etc. Industrial growth (non polluting) could be earmarked on degraded forest land denotified around the capital. We don't need to build iconic structures with Singapore help. We can have decent, economic, efficient buildings. Iconic buildings should be limited to Raj Bhawan, Assembly & Council, High Court, Secretariat and 5* Hotels only. No wastage of money through extravaganza. In India, we have enough expertise to undertake this activity. Thinking of competing with Hyderabad, Bangalore & Chennai is futile. In fact we should fall back on these cities. For building capital Amaravati we could obtain financial help from Center, borrow at low interest & long term loans from HUDCO and World Bank. Providing air connectivity to all metros in India and nearby international destinations like Dubai, Singapore & Hong Kong with further connections to world would be great idea for Trade, Tourism and IT development.

Nothing comes FREE in this word. Paying by cash is the cheapest. Any other mode will have inherent and much higher payments.