AP Elections 2019 - Jagan trounces Naidu

In AP, Assembly seats won: YSRCP 151, TDP 23, Janasena 1
In AP, Lok Sabha seats won: YSRCP 22, TDP 3, Janasena 0.
In AP, Popular Assembly vote share: YSRCP 49.9%, TDP 39.2% and Janasena 6.8%.

Why Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) lost and how Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP) won?

• Chandrababu Naidu had promised virtually the moon but delivered little, during 2014-19. 
• Massive anti-incumbency vote caused by Chandrababu Naidu’s falling credibility and his several political missteps.
• Chandrababu Naidu’s running battle with the BJP-Modi government for the past two years and his U-turns on the critical question of getting special category status had badly dented his credibility.
• Government employees turned hostile because of the use of modern tools such as biometric attendance etc.
• Chandrababu Naidu chose to ignore the corruption and misdeeds of his party legislators who had become unpopular. They had turned into mini-Chief Ministers in their constituencies, bullying officials and extending patronage to land mafias, sand mafias and illegal liquor networks. Chandrababu Naidu refused to drop the majority of siting MLAs.
• The incomplete flyover near the Kanaka Durga temple, Vijayawada, stuck out like a sore thumb. 
• Jagan's 3648 km padayatra. “Why not give him one chance” was the common refrain. Jagan’s direct contact with the people helped him to counter Chandrababu Naidu’s powerful outreach to the media or his media management.
• Jagan outsmarted Chandrababu Naidu by keeping up sustained pressure on the government for failing to get special category status and accusing Chandrababu Naidu that he had murdered democracy by luring 24 YSRCP MLAs into the TDP’s fold.
• Jagan's campaign and his slogans such as “nenu vinna” (I heard your woes) and “nenu vunna” (I am there) resonated with the people.
• Jagan's distasteful personal remarks about Pawan Kalyan, and accusing him of becoming a puppet in Chandrababu Naidu’s hands was unwise & untimely but was lucky at Pawan Kalyan's failure to garner Kapu’s (15.2% of AP population) support with his blurred agenda and the absence of a cohesive election strategy.
• Condescending attitude. Ridiculing Jagan at every  any opportunity on “having so many criminal cases”.
• Over projecting capital Amaravati's land pooling and construction with graphics.
• Chandrababu Naidu’s claims of having pushed the state to the top in the number one position in ease of doing business etc cut no ice with voters. Their anger went much deeper as the party drew a blank in Vizianagaram or the defeat of Nara Lokesh in Mangalagiri, the core capital area?
• Jagan managed to buck the negative image created by the CBI cases against him, often cited by Naidu. Naidu conveniently forgot that Jagan came very close to capturing power in 2014 Assembly elections losing by just 1.6% vote margin. 
• Failure to forge alliance with Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena Party and Left parties. Naidu's last minute welfare schemes failed translate into vote bank.
• People’s expectations have gone up phenomenally. Prashant Kishore sharpened Jagan's style of campaigning and strategy. 

Jagan owes credit for his victory to Prashant Kishor, who have stayed with the YSRCP for nearly two years, guiding its strategy, conducting campaigns, training the cadres, handling social media and press releases etc. YSRCP's Ummareddy Venkateswarlu candidly said: “Naidu’s downfall began the day he brought his son into politics.”

The present model of politics and elections is very expensive and is heavily dependent on unlawful methods, mafia, liquor and yet attracts many people because of power and corruption money with return to investment exceeding 1,000% p.a. for next 5 years in return for compromising ethics and morals. The campaigning is so vulgar the people of character mutes their TV sets. Naidu's failure is due to over confidence, extravaganza in spending state money, over projecting small achievements, inability to avoid fight with Modi-BJP, failure to forge alliance with JSP, Left parties, impress upon other castes to stay put with TDP, failure to garner woman votes and above all state government employees feeling uneasy in his administration and so on. He virtually committed the identical mistakes as in 2004. If at least Naidu had roped in Pawan Kalyan in alliance with TDP, TDP+ would have got about respectable 70-80 seats or even a surprise victory with 90+ seats. Fighting with all in all fronts (Jagan, Pawan, KCR, Modi etc), there is hardly any way for Chandrababu Naidu led TDP to win these  elections. Hence the TDP's defeat is not a surprise at all but crushing defeat of 23 of 175 is totally unexpected and was easily avoidable.

BJP in AP - dilemma is suicidal

1. During the course of AP Reorganization Bill, BJP cooperated with Congress totally, ignoring the assurance given by LK Advani that unjust act will not be allowed to go through.
2. Subsequently it was BJP's Venkaiah Naidu and Arun Jaitley who coined "Special Category Status" for AP for a period of 10 years which Congress had reduced to 5 years as promise outside the bill & Act.
3. BJP admitted TDP into its NDA fold during 2014 elections (keeping aside the  personal animosity of Modi against Chandrababu Naidu during the period of Gujarat Riots 2002 etc.) with the sole objective of grabbing power and absolute majority for BJP was highly uncertain.
4. Modi during election campaign has made umpteen promises to residual AP many more beyond the AP Reorganization Act which are still reverberating in the ears of AP people.
5. BJP's Hari Babu could win Visakhapatnam LS seat with Vizag Railway Zone as his top most item during campaign.
6. Modi as PM has completely ignored not only his promises but also center's obligations to assist AP for its development, Polavaram project, new capital construction and so on and released minuscule amounts during the past 4 years. At this rate fulfilling promises and obligations would take 50-100 years.
7. So many things were said during the past 4 years, but people of AP feel totally let down by BJP, much worse than by Congress during 2014. Modi came out in his true colors and people of AP has lost faith in him and BJP whatsoever and if polls were held today BJP may not get even 1% votes, worse than Congress would get. Having cooperated with BJP for Jagan to come out of his CBI & ED corruption cases, YSRCP's vote base has deteriorated significantly. Pawan Kalyan with his confusing stances since an year and suddenly taking U-turn and started cooperating with BJP for undisclosed reasons too has lost his charm & credibility.
8. Today's opinion poll results in social media, even though not very authentic, but does reflect reality. TDP's popular support, with NOTA excluded, is about 60% with its only rival YSRCP at less than 20%, Pawan Kalyan's Janasena at 15% and Congress, BJP & others at 5%.
   
   
9. In real polls next year with large rural population included, popular support to TDP may very well exceed 65%. 

BJP committed suicide in AP with Modi's arrogance at its peak. With North & West uncertain, South and East in the hands of popular regional parties, BJP/NDA's 2019 tally may not exceed 100/150, with most allies already exited NDA. Modi saddled with negatives like economic destruction, agrarian distress, unemployment and so on, has no achievements to present to people and blaming Congress etc even after 5 years of being in power will not yield any benefit to him. Most BJP-Modi fans are openly talking that Congress was better with all its corruption and scams. While Central Government has never ever revealed complete truths to nation in the past, but it has also refrained from blatant lies. But Modi's administration has crossed all limits of decency and hurls at blatant lies at the fall of hat bringing down its own credibility. Today, Modi has more enemies inside BJP than outside. BJP leaders in AP are scared of meeting public and are confining themselves to press meets now and then. Their briefings are limited to reproduction of what BJP says in Delhi. Even a BJP MP and an Ex BJP Minister who are reluctant to carry the burden of BJP and being friends of Chandrababu Naidu are likely to join TDP before 2019 elections. 

Ever since 1977, non-congress parties has been proving time and again that they are worthy to sit in opposition benches only and squandered away every opportunity given to them with their shortsightedness, strongheadedness, insufficient vision to rule a diverse nation like India.

TDP moves no confidence motion in LS

    

Minutes after pulling out from NDA, Mr. Chandrababu Naidu TDP supremo changed his strategy of supporting the YSRCP’s no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government in the Lok Sabha and directed his party MPs to take the initiative and move it. Apparently the TDP wanted not to be seen allying with corrupt YSRCP and wanted to project itself taking head-on with BJP, which any way is considerably weakened as indicated by a series of bye poll reversals in northern states. 

• While YSRCP's motion didn't attract many of the opposition parties despite its lobbying, Naidu's no confidence motion was supported instantly by 16 opposition parties - Congress, NCP, TMC, YSRCP, SP, RJD, AAP, CPM, CPI, RSP, JD(S), JMM, AIMIM, Kerala Congress, NC, IUML all with about 150 LS members. 
• TRS adopted 'wait & watch' policy. TRS says it supports the demand for special category status for AP but will not support the no-confidence motion in the LS against the NDA government describing the move as a "political gimmick", which is untenable.
• NDA enjoys majority in Lok Sabha and runs no risk of being toppled by this no confidence moved by TDP. The Modi-BJP led NDA government still has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha well above the current halfway mark of 270. 
• But the motion has the potential to embarrass BJP as the issue of granting special-category status to AP will be debated at length by various leaders. The issue will hog headlines for several days and will impact the BJP's image and it will become a traitors party as the Parliament Acts and promises are not fulfilled. 
• It will encourage other NDA allies to raise contentious regional issues and increase disaffection within the alliance. Less than an year before the the next Lok Sabha elections, allies turning hostile will be bad optics for the NDA. It will also impact PM Modi's image of a leader that has confidence of several regional parties. 
• Faced with embarrassing electoral reversals in the bye polls in northern states, and no better position in western & central states and strong regional parties in east and south, BJP's prospects of getting even 100 seats in 2019 general elections appears dim.
• The Shiv Sena predicted that the BJP’s tally will come down by 100-110 seats in the 2019 general elections. The two victories by the SP in UP have created panic in the BJP at a time when they were busy celebrating the party’s victory in a small state like Tripura.
• With all major opposition parties rallying with TDP's motion and none of the allies are comfortable with Modi's autocratic style of working, BJP is likely to have tough time overcoming this situation.
• BJP employed cheap trick of using AIADMK & TRS stalling and adjourning LS to avoid discussion on no confidence on Fri, 16th March. Even budget was passed on 14th March without discussion and all 21 amendments adopted within 30 minutes. In the mean time, BJP approached Shiv Sena for truce, which earlier snapped ties with NDA.
• As the passage of the Finance Bill is completed, there is a possibility that the LS will be adjourned sine die thus thwarting no confidence motion. That would be absolute timidity on the part of Modi to avoid facing issues in Parliament which any way he has done so far.
• At present TDP has 16 LS seats and in next LS it is likely to have 20-22. In the event of BJP falling short of majority in 2019, Modi needs to depend on trusted allies and till yesterday TDP was considered a most trusted ally of BJP.

In AP Congress was buried 20 feet below ground with their highhanded and unjust bifurcation of AP in 2014. Now in 2018, BJP got buried 30 feet below the ground for their cheating the people of AP by not implementing provisions of AP Reorganization Act, not granting Special Category Status to AP and denying financial support for 19+ items and in the process insulting people of AP. BJP cadres are dumb faced and are scared of facing people of AP, despite their leadership ordering them to explain that they have done everything. So far, opposition parties were in disarray and now Modi's arrogance had provided opportunity to unite form alliance(s) to defeat BJP in the forthcoming elections. Even UP's recent bye election debacle, has not taught Modi any lesson. Instead of mending his ways and do the right thing, he preferred to kneel down before Shiv Sena for support. Modi's arrogance may end up in isolation of BJP in NDA and many trusted allies are likely to exit. Even though unlikely, if for any reason no confidence motion wins, mid term elections are a certainty paving the way for formation of non-BJP government in Delhi.

Nandyal bypoll result - Jagan lives in denial

• The Nandyal by-election was projected to be seen as a referendum on the three years of the AP's TDP chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's rule.
• 25 years ago, the TDP under NT Rama Rao conceded a walkover in Nandyal for the Lok Sabha bypoll, enabling Telugu bidda PV Narsimha Rao win the seat after becoming prime minister. 
• In 2014, YSRCP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy won defeating TDP's Silpa Mohan Reddy by a slender majority of 2% votes. 
• In an extremely unethical political situation, Late Bhuma Nagi Reddy's nephew is pitted as TDP's candidate against YSRCP's Silpa Mohan Reddy after a spate of defections and, AP Speaker doing nothing about the defections, and due to death of TDP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy.
• The established norm is that when an MP or MLA dies mid-term, the party holding the seat is allowed a no-contest, with the other party not putting up a candidate. Nandyal is a peculiar situation, where both the YSRCP and the candidate's family (of TDP) asked each other to back off, making a contest inevitable.
• Naidu has taken the by-election very seriously. He has involved all party seniors, and has campaigned extensively himself, making it a prestigious battle. The TDP chief has personally reached out to different community leaders, distributing sops to the electorate to ensure victory for the ruling party.
• Naidu even issued a subtle threat to those who wouldn't vote for the TDP, saying he will have nothing to do with those villages. He said, "You take pension doled out by my government, walk on the roads laid by my administration, take ration and use the glow of the streetlights erected by us. Why wouldn't you vote for us?"
• Naidu keeping BJP state leaders out of election campaign and avoiding Muslims wrath, who are 20% of voters, was a good strategy that paid off.
• Nandyal is the first political test for Nara Lokesh, Naidu's son, party general secretary and the state IT minister. It is one thing to lure Opposition MLAs to the ruling camp by using political clout, and quite another to win an election. The victory proved Lokesh's credentials as a politician. 
• For the YSRCP, Nandyal was the best chance to show anti-incumbency. Its loss is likely to result in more migrations from YSRCP to TDP in the next two years. 
• While TDP is largely seen as a Kamma dominated party, YSRCP has a larger Reddy community presence. In the Reddy vs Reddy fierce battle, YSRCP's defeat confirmed weakened Reddy community support to YSRCP that Jagan enjoyed in the past. 
• Nandyal has voters of 20% Muslims & 10% Vysyas and large Dalits as well. TDP victory is seen as its patronization by Muslims, Vysyas & Dalits apart from Reddys as well.
• The Nandyal defeat is severe setback for Prashant Kishore, YSRCP strategist for 2019. Kishor was introduced to the party three months ago, with Jagan saying that Kishor will help them in 'Mission 2019'. It is rumored that Kishor charged Jagan hefty fees of Rs.50 crores.
• Nothing will change for the people of Nandyal. Politics in India, especially that in the Rayalaseema region of AP, is practised that members of one or two families are allowed hegemony over a constituency for decades. Nandyal is no exception as the leaders move from one party to another and their support base moves with them, like a herd.
• Both TDP & YSRCP are believed to have spent about Rs.500 crores and vote-for-cash is rumored between Rs.2,000 & Rs.5,000. 

If we don't learn on our own, adversity will teach us lessons 

Since 2004 Nandyal was bastion of Reddys from Congress & later YSR Congress. With this bypoll TDP regained its lost hold after two decades. Extending - it indicates erosion of Jagan's grip in Rayalaseema due to his arrogance and vulgar abuses. Roja filled up where ever there were gaps in abuses. Even after, Jagan lives in denial and will only ruin himself and YSRCP. Now Jagan will have uphill task to hold his folks together with 2019 indications clearly favoring TDP & Chandrababu Naidu. The highlight of this TDP's win is that it fought out alone without involving BJP leaders in campaigning and soliciting support of Pawan Kalyan, whose support probably might have helped TDP winning over YSRCP in 2014 general election with slender majorities in many constituencies.