AP Elections 2019 - Jagan trounces Naidu

In AP, Assembly seats won: YSRCP 151, TDP 23, Janasena 1
In AP, Lok Sabha seats won: YSRCP 22, TDP 3, Janasena 0.
In AP, Popular Assembly vote share: YSRCP 49.9%, TDP 39.2% and Janasena 6.8%.

Why Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) lost and how Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP) won?

• Chandrababu Naidu had promised virtually the moon but delivered little, during 2014-19. 
• Massive anti-incumbency vote caused by Chandrababu Naidu’s falling credibility and his several political missteps.
• Chandrababu Naidu’s running battle with the BJP-Modi government for the past two years and his U-turns on the critical question of getting special category status had badly dented his credibility.
• Government employees turned hostile because of the use of modern tools such as biometric attendance etc.
• Chandrababu Naidu chose to ignore the corruption and misdeeds of his party legislators who had become unpopular. They had turned into mini-Chief Ministers in their constituencies, bullying officials and extending patronage to land mafias, sand mafias and illegal liquor networks. Chandrababu Naidu refused to drop the majority of siting MLAs.
• The incomplete flyover near the Kanaka Durga temple, Vijayawada, stuck out like a sore thumb. 
• Jagan's 3648 km padayatra. “Why not give him one chance” was the common refrain. Jagan’s direct contact with the people helped him to counter Chandrababu Naidu’s powerful outreach to the media or his media management.
• Jagan outsmarted Chandrababu Naidu by keeping up sustained pressure on the government for failing to get special category status and accusing Chandrababu Naidu that he had murdered democracy by luring 24 YSRCP MLAs into the TDP’s fold.
• Jagan's campaign and his slogans such as “nenu vinna” (I heard your woes) and “nenu vunna” (I am there) resonated with the people.
• Jagan's distasteful personal remarks about Pawan Kalyan, and accusing him of becoming a puppet in Chandrababu Naidu’s hands was unwise & untimely but was lucky at Pawan Kalyan's failure to garner Kapu’s (15.2% of AP population) support with his blurred agenda and the absence of a cohesive election strategy.
• Condescending attitude. Ridiculing Jagan at every  any opportunity on “having so many criminal cases”.
• Over projecting capital Amaravati's land pooling and construction with graphics.
• Chandrababu Naidu’s claims of having pushed the state to the top in the number one position in ease of doing business etc cut no ice with voters. Their anger went much deeper as the party drew a blank in Vizianagaram or the defeat of Nara Lokesh in Mangalagiri, the core capital area?
• Jagan managed to buck the negative image created by the CBI cases against him, often cited by Naidu. Naidu conveniently forgot that Jagan came very close to capturing power in 2014 Assembly elections losing by just 1.6% vote margin. 
• Failure to forge alliance with Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena Party and Left parties. Naidu's last minute welfare schemes failed translate into vote bank.
• People’s expectations have gone up phenomenally. Prashant Kishore sharpened Jagan's style of campaigning and strategy. 

Jagan owes credit for his victory to Prashant Kishor, who have stayed with the YSRCP for nearly two years, guiding its strategy, conducting campaigns, training the cadres, handling social media and press releases etc. YSRCP's Ummareddy Venkateswarlu candidly said: “Naidu’s downfall began the day he brought his son into politics.”

The present model of politics and elections is very expensive and is heavily dependent on unlawful methods, mafia, liquor and yet attracts many people because of power and corruption money with return to investment exceeding 1,000% p.a. for next 5 years in return for compromising ethics and morals. The campaigning is so vulgar the people of character mutes their TV sets. Naidu's failure is due to over confidence, extravaganza in spending state money, over projecting small achievements, inability to avoid fight with Modi-BJP, failure to forge alliance with JSP, Left parties, impress upon other castes to stay put with TDP, failure to garner woman votes and above all state government employees feeling uneasy in his administration and so on. He virtually committed the identical mistakes as in 2004. If at least Naidu had roped in Pawan Kalyan in alliance with TDP, TDP+ would have got about respectable 70-80 seats or even a surprise victory with 90+ seats. Fighting with all in all fronts (Jagan, Pawan, KCR, Modi etc), there is hardly any way for Chandrababu Naidu led TDP to win these  elections. Hence the TDP's defeat is not a surprise at all but crushing defeat of 23 of 175 is totally unexpected and was easily avoidable.

Mockery of Exit Polls

Almost all exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some pollsters such as News24-Today’s Chanakya and Aaj Tak-AxisMyIndia predicted the BJP’s win to be bigger than even the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Only ABP-Nielsen has predicted the BJP to fall short of majority.

Stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt - people have advised.

Within 60 seconds, Rs 3.2 lakh crore were added to investor kitty as exit polls see NDA win. The highly exaggerated Exit Polls have become another tool to make money and the rich are getting richer at the expense of the gullible small investors.

ABP giving 56 seats to MGB in UP, India today giving 65 seats to BJP in UP. This is the conclusion of Exit polls!

The BJP-JDU alliance is set to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar winning minimum 38 out of the 40 seats, according to the India Today-My Axis India Exit Poll. The RJD-Congress led 'Mahagathbandhan' may only bag maximum 2 seats, as per the exit polls. Is it believable?

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made a stunning allegation against TV channels’ who broadcast their exit poll predictions on Sunday evening. She said that predictions favouring the BJP was a part of a larger ‘game plan’ to ‘manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.’

Telegu Desam Party chief N Chandrababu Naidu dismissed the predictions of the exit polls, pointing out that past experience show such analysis usually turn out wrong. "Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the people's pulse. Exit polls have provIndia ed to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances..." Mr Naidu tweeted.

Last week, Arnab Goswami had slammed his rival TV channels particularly India Today for ‘leaking’ their exit poll data that gave the NDA only 177 seats, a loss of 177 seats compared to 2014, they claimed. Faced with widespread condemnation, India Today had later clarified that numbers flashed on its channel were part of the channel’s dummy data.

"I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India many people don't tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results," tweeted the Congress parliamentarian Mr Shashi Tharoor. He was referring to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, cementing his authority over the Liberal Party and giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah tweeted "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd". His tweet that did not outright cast doubts on the exit polls that is likely to be seen as a harbinger of the actual results.

Basis Exit Polls, shares of Adani Group companies have shot through the roof:
    Adani Green Energy: 17%
    Adani Gas: 16%  
    Adani Power: 14%
    Adani Transmission: 9% 
    Adani Ports & SEZ: 8%
    Adani Enterprises: 15%

There is no advantage of conducting Exit Polls!  It creates unwanted anxiety to people and politicians. Only TV channels make money.


Many political analysts see opinion polls as an evil in democracy. Opinion polls have bandwagon effect on the fair election process. Opinion polls project what voters are thinking and what their mandate will be. It doesn't direct the voters to go for the majority view or to neglect the minority. Opinion polls are accused of being manipulated and sometimes being wrong. Opinion polls can be manipulated by arranging favorable questions. It is not the duty of the media to keep the moral of the party cadres high. Media is accountable to the people not to the political parties. Indian citizen has the right to freedom of speech and expression and ban on the opinion polls will curtail this right. So argument against opinion polls holds no moral ground. In a country like ours, opinion polls and exit polls are much needed to enrich our healthy democracy. But yesterday's exit polls seems to have been manipulated by ruling BJP in order to keep UPA and allies in disarray so that in case of any marginal opportunity they could knock away the chance to form government with the help of President Kovind.

Nitish Kumar ... No where to go

Nitish Kumar is a nowhere man now and he will do another somersault because the BJP and Shah are cannibalising him and without an ally he is negligible. He will still prefer to walk out, go it alone and become a martyr allying with the winner of 2019 ... says a senior JDU leader.

• Nitish Kumar has a soul which troubles him only when he has political power at stake. From being a contender for the PM's office to now being reduced to Shah’s collateral damage it has been a sharp and steep fall for Nitish Kumar.
• Yesterday’s loss of the Jokihat seat to the ally RJD, he betrayed was the latest in the series of reverses Nitish Kumar has faced after he joined hands with erstwhile bête noire Narendra Modi. 
• The latest in the serial snubs is Union Minister, Nitin Gadkari publicly turning down his demand for special status for Bihar, Nitish Kumar has had to repeatedly swallow his pride.
• Nitish Kumar’s humiliation at the hands of the Modi and Shah duo has a larger lesson to all the NDA allies of BJP. AP Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu reportedly told senior Congress leaders that he does not want to become Nitish Kumar in the hands of the BJP.
• Even Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo who ended the longest running alliance of the BJP breaking ties has privately mocked Nitish Kumar’s plight. 
• The biggest lesson is how dangerous the BJP under Shah and Modi has become to its partners, that the Akali Dal lost its traditional seat it had retained for 20 years to the Congress in the by-polls yesterday, must be realizing. 
• Shah’s arrogant treatment of Nitish Kumar, his repeated insults, his gobbling up of the JDU’s political space and the recent warning that the BJP will not make any concessions in seat sharing have all been observed by the fence-sitting opposition leaders. Amit Shah's plans to cut Nitish Kumar and JDU down to size and grab more Lok Sabha seats is an open secret in Bihar. So much so that Nitish Kumar who had used Rahul Gandhi as a scapegoat to walk out of the alliance is now sending feelers to the Congress to bail him out.
• Nitish Kumar has also reached out to “friend” West Bengal CM Mamta Banerjee, who was his colleague in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Much to his consternation Banerjee bluntly told him “Modi is no Vajpayee. He will eat you up alive”.
• Left with no options, Nitish Kumar might break all alliances and is likely to go "Solo" in 2019 General elections, like Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena supremo. Amit Shah is likely to eat humble pie in front of Thackeray as Maharashtra accounts for the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats (48), but Nitish Kumar will be given no quarter. But it is unlikely that Thackeray will give in to Shah’s sweet talk but Nitish Kumar is desperate for any BJP deal.
• Navin Patnaik, Odisha CM has now reached out to the leaders of the united opposition after seeing how the BJP treats allies. Patnaik already had a quiet meeting with Sonia Gandhi. Naveen Patnaik is likely to make some joint moves with the united opposition as Rahul Gandhi is in touch with him. Patnaik realises the writing on the wall that the Modi wave is over and hence sitting on the fence is no longer a feasible option.
• Shah is facing allies bleed away from him due to his shortsighted pursuit of winning every electoral battle that has compelled divided opposition to get united for survival. 
• Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, is acting as a catalyst of opposition unity having brought together opposite community leaders Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel in Gujarat and giving BJP a fight and fright.
• The Congress's new MPCC chief Kamalnath is negotiating with Mayawati for an alliance in MP which would add at least another 4-6% Dalit votes. The Congress is committed to reaching out and creating a rainbow opposition coalition across the country. And uneasy Shah has put in CBI on the job of breaking the BSP away.
• But as the Air Asia case registered against Ajit Singh on the eve of the Kairana result showed that vendetta politics of Modi and Shah have diminishing returns. The leaders being targeted are more determined to band together. Sharad Pawar of the NCP, who Modi hailed as his political guru, has also ended his tacit understanding with Modi and is now a prime mover of the united opposition.

However hard Amit Shah tries, it seems that he is unable to split and divide the opposition. The BJP’s  unprincipled power grabs are now working against it. Sources close to Nitish Kumar says that he thought Modi was here to stay. The same Nitish Kumar now privately says that Modi was an accidental PM. A bubble on a wave which will burst in the big fight of 2019. 

Nitish Kumar’s somersault has now become a statutory warning to the united opposition - ally with the BJP at your risk.

Yedurappa resigns. But what about Governor Vajubhai Vala?

• Just two days after taking oath as the Chief Minister, Karnataka BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa resigned ahead of the crucial vote of confidence on the floor of the house.
• Outnumbered by the Congress-JD(S) combine, the BJP needed the support of 111 MLAs to sail through the vote of confidence on the floor of the house. It had only 104 and its efforts to buyout few MLAs from JDS and/or Congress fell flat leaving indelible blot on their face.
• In a surprise farewell speech in the Assembly, an emotional Yeddyurappa said he will campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and ensure that BJP wins all 28 LS seats in the state.
• The BJP never had the numbers, but the governor invited them to form government and generously gave 2 weeks time for horse-trading and winning trust motion on floor of the Assembly. But Supreme Court curtailed the time to just to 36 hours, only to avoid judicial scrutiny of actions of constitutional office of Governor.
• The Supreme Court today ordered live telecast of the floor test, when Congress challenged the appointment of KG Bopaiah (BJP MLA) as Protem Speaker who is not the senior most MLA but also with questionable past record as speaker.
• In a democracy we have to accept not only people's verdict but also the follow the rule of law.
• Earlier in the week, BJP which had emerged as the single largest party, was invited by the Governor Vajubhai Vala to form the government ignoring the post poll coalition between JDS and Congress, which together had 115 MLAs, well above the mark of simple majority of 112/222 which was challenged by JDS & Congress in Supreme Court for staying the swearing-in of BS Yedurappa as the Chief Minister. 
• "The Governor has invited us to form the government. The swearing in ceremony will be organised on Monday May 21, 2018. I have personally invited Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Chandrashekhar Rao and Chandrababu Naidu to attend the ceremony," Kumaraswamy told reporters.

Governor Vajubhai Vala's  baseless and senseless decision to invite minority BJP leader Yedurappa, ignoring JDS+Congress combine's leader HD Kumara Swamy with clear majority that lead to intense horse trading activity by BJP with unlimited budgets of several thousands of crores of rupees was thwarted by JDS & Congress leadership, cadre with support of Supreme Court interventions, almost all opposition leaders across many states, JDS & Congress MLAs unwilling to cross parties within hours of electing by public. Karnataka showed that the BJP's downslide has started with arrogant and audacious actions of Modi and Amit Shah, who lost their face with steep fall from their high moral ground to deep corruption. Their credibility is totally lost and this fiasco will have its telling effect on 2019 General Elections on Modi & BJP. The need of the hour is that Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala must resign and get out.

BJP in AP - dilemma is suicidal

1. During the course of AP Reorganization Bill, BJP cooperated with Congress totally, ignoring the assurance given by LK Advani that unjust act will not be allowed to go through.
2. Subsequently it was BJP's Venkaiah Naidu and Arun Jaitley who coined "Special Category Status" for AP for a period of 10 years which Congress had reduced to 5 years as promise outside the bill & Act.
3. BJP admitted TDP into its NDA fold during 2014 elections (keeping aside the  personal animosity of Modi against Chandrababu Naidu during the period of Gujarat Riots 2002 etc.) with the sole objective of grabbing power and absolute majority for BJP was highly uncertain.
4. Modi during election campaign has made umpteen promises to residual AP many more beyond the AP Reorganization Act which are still reverberating in the ears of AP people.
5. BJP's Hari Babu could win Visakhapatnam LS seat with Vizag Railway Zone as his top most item during campaign.
6. Modi as PM has completely ignored not only his promises but also center's obligations to assist AP for its development, Polavaram project, new capital construction and so on and released minuscule amounts during the past 4 years. At this rate fulfilling promises and obligations would take 50-100 years.
7. So many things were said during the past 4 years, but people of AP feel totally let down by BJP, much worse than by Congress during 2014. Modi came out in his true colors and people of AP has lost faith in him and BJP whatsoever and if polls were held today BJP may not get even 1% votes, worse than Congress would get. Having cooperated with BJP for Jagan to come out of his CBI & ED corruption cases, YSRCP's vote base has deteriorated significantly. Pawan Kalyan with his confusing stances since an year and suddenly taking U-turn and started cooperating with BJP for undisclosed reasons too has lost his charm & credibility.
8. Today's opinion poll results in social media, even though not very authentic, but does reflect reality. TDP's popular support, with NOTA excluded, is about 60% with its only rival YSRCP at less than 20%, Pawan Kalyan's Janasena at 15% and Congress, BJP & others at 5%.
   
   
9. In real polls next year with large rural population included, popular support to TDP may very well exceed 65%. 

BJP committed suicide in AP with Modi's arrogance at its peak. With North & West uncertain, South and East in the hands of popular regional parties, BJP/NDA's 2019 tally may not exceed 100/150, with most allies already exited NDA. Modi saddled with negatives like economic destruction, agrarian distress, unemployment and so on, has no achievements to present to people and blaming Congress etc even after 5 years of being in power will not yield any benefit to him. Most BJP-Modi fans are openly talking that Congress was better with all its corruption and scams. While Central Government has never ever revealed complete truths to nation in the past, but it has also refrained from blatant lies. But Modi's administration has crossed all limits of decency and hurls at blatant lies at the fall of hat bringing down its own credibility. Today, Modi has more enemies inside BJP than outside. BJP leaders in AP are scared of meeting public and are confining themselves to press meets now and then. Their briefings are limited to reproduction of what BJP says in Delhi. Even a BJP MP and an Ex BJP Minister who are reluctant to carry the burden of BJP and being friends of Chandrababu Naidu are likely to join TDP before 2019 elections. 

Ever since 1977, non-congress parties has been proving time and again that they are worthy to sit in opposition benches only and squandered away every opportunity given to them with their shortsightedness, strongheadedness, insufficient vision to rule a diverse nation like India.

Modi runs away from 'No confidence motion'

TDP's and YSRCP's individual no-confidence moves failed to take off on March 19, 2018, for the second time due to disorderly house created by AIADMK and TRS MP's rushing into well and shouting for their unimportant pending demands and creating feeble ruckus. The house was adjourned within minutes strangely for next day, giving rise to the suspicion that AIADMK & TRS protest in Lok Sabha was "stage-managed" by BJP. Despite sweeping powers, the Speaker has not made any attempt to restore order in the House for taking up the important motion of no-confidence and just adjourned the house for the day saying, "I'm duty-bound to bring the no-confidence motion. But I cannot do so that unless the House is in order". Orderly running of the house is the responsibility of Speaker, PM and Parliamentary affairs minister. 

Ever since Modi became PM, discussion on important matters was always thwarted by BJP and questions were never answered straight forward. The recent passage of Finance Bill with 28 amendments in less than 30 minutes amidst pandemonium is a glaring example.

Why BJP is hiding from a no-confidence motion despite having sufficient numbers?

• There is considerable disillusion in BJP arising out of recent LS bye poll defeats in Rajasthan, MP, WB, Bihar and UP with huge margins. It is surprising to note that BJP leaders are the most happiest persons for BJP's debacle in bye polls in North.
• BJP is scared of its own MP may not be present in LS at the time of voting. 
• The entire opposition became united, on AP issues, for the first time in the past 4 years.
• Debates during 'no confidence motion' are unconstrained and will provide great opportunity for all opposition parties to ventilate their grievances on any matter and charge that ruling BJP has nos not done much for many other states. Also all his failures during past 4 years will getting highlighted during the debate.
• Any discussion that allows for scathing criticism in an election year is something the government wants to avoid. This negative publicity is likely to impact BJP's chances, if any, in the forth coming Karnataka elections. The bank frauds can no longer be dismissed as a creation of the UPA as these fraudsters left the country under the Modi dispensation. Above all, Modi doesn't like or he hates criticism and has no attitude to answer questions straight forward.
• The exit of TDP from NDA has already dented BJP's credibility in accommodating its allies. The TDP's no-confidence motion has put an end to the "myth" that the BJP-led Modi government has an unshakable mandate for the next 25 years, as said by Shiv Sena. Shiv Sena's allegation that The TDP's no-confidence motion is for its political reasons and not for any 'nationalist' reason holds no water since TDP is a regional party only. 
• But TDP has no choice since BJP has not fulfilled its 19+ obligations in implementing AP Reorganization Act 2014 even in its last year of the 5 year mandate, which is unpardonable. Needless to say 5 crore AP people are unanimously angry over BJP's attitude of highhandedness and TDP exiting NDA and tabling no confidence motion made Naidu a hero. Public perception can't be ignored in a democracy especially when they are not demanding the sky.
• Even though YSRCP announced no confidence motion a month ago, none took it seriously with their integrity and corrupt background with YS Jagan as A1 in a dozen cases and his properties worth several thousand crores attached by ED so far. The talk in AP is that YSRCP is cooperating with BJP secretly to get out of cases and silently getting its properties out of ED's attachment. With these its mass base is fast shrinking.
• The manner in which BJP has formed governments recently in Goa, Meghalaya and Nagaland without explicit majority or even highest seats denying Congress with highest seats opportunity to form coalition government indicates their utter disrespect for democratic norms and constitution.
• BJP will certainly defend itself even attack opposition invoking irrelevant historical pasts etc. but opposition will have more ammunition to fire at BJP.

BJP must be regretting now that it could have done something on its own (of about 20% as per AP Reorganization Act 2014) for funds starving AP in this last Budget 2018 so that this embarrassment would have been avoided. Modi is paying very big price for his highhandedness and headstrong attitude. Modi successfully added another negative item to BJP's already 'worst performer' account.

With what ever is happening during the past 10 days, Modi & Jaitley with their arrogance belittled themselves as reflected by unity among almost all opposition parties, Chandrababu Naidu became hero of Telugu Pride and BJP got buried underground worse than that of Congress party in 2014. With BJP and Congress seen as AP cheaters and Jagan (YSRCP) seen in collusion with BJP & Modi, TDP is assured landslide victory in 2019 general elections in AP.

TDP moves no confidence motion in LS

    

Minutes after pulling out from NDA, Mr. Chandrababu Naidu TDP supremo changed his strategy of supporting the YSRCP’s no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government in the Lok Sabha and directed his party MPs to take the initiative and move it. Apparently the TDP wanted not to be seen allying with corrupt YSRCP and wanted to project itself taking head-on with BJP, which any way is considerably weakened as indicated by a series of bye poll reversals in northern states. 

• While YSRCP's motion didn't attract many of the opposition parties despite its lobbying, Naidu's no confidence motion was supported instantly by 16 opposition parties - Congress, NCP, TMC, YSRCP, SP, RJD, AAP, CPM, CPI, RSP, JD(S), JMM, AIMIM, Kerala Congress, NC, IUML all with about 150 LS members. 
• TRS adopted 'wait & watch' policy. TRS says it supports the demand for special category status for AP but will not support the no-confidence motion in the LS against the NDA government describing the move as a "political gimmick", which is untenable.
• NDA enjoys majority in Lok Sabha and runs no risk of being toppled by this no confidence moved by TDP. The Modi-BJP led NDA government still has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha well above the current halfway mark of 270. 
• But the motion has the potential to embarrass BJP as the issue of granting special-category status to AP will be debated at length by various leaders. The issue will hog headlines for several days and will impact the BJP's image and it will become a traitors party as the Parliament Acts and promises are not fulfilled. 
• It will encourage other NDA allies to raise contentious regional issues and increase disaffection within the alliance. Less than an year before the the next Lok Sabha elections, allies turning hostile will be bad optics for the NDA. It will also impact PM Modi's image of a leader that has confidence of several regional parties. 
• Faced with embarrassing electoral reversals in the bye polls in northern states, and no better position in western & central states and strong regional parties in east and south, BJP's prospects of getting even 100 seats in 2019 general elections appears dim.
• The Shiv Sena predicted that the BJP’s tally will come down by 100-110 seats in the 2019 general elections. The two victories by the SP in UP have created panic in the BJP at a time when they were busy celebrating the party’s victory in a small state like Tripura.
• With all major opposition parties rallying with TDP's motion and none of the allies are comfortable with Modi's autocratic style of working, BJP is likely to have tough time overcoming this situation.
• BJP employed cheap trick of using AIADMK & TRS stalling and adjourning LS to avoid discussion on no confidence on Fri, 16th March. Even budget was passed on 14th March without discussion and all 21 amendments adopted within 30 minutes. In the mean time, BJP approached Shiv Sena for truce, which earlier snapped ties with NDA.
• As the passage of the Finance Bill is completed, there is a possibility that the LS will be adjourned sine die thus thwarting no confidence motion. That would be absolute timidity on the part of Modi to avoid facing issues in Parliament which any way he has done so far.
• At present TDP has 16 LS seats and in next LS it is likely to have 20-22. In the event of BJP falling short of majority in 2019, Modi needs to depend on trusted allies and till yesterday TDP was considered a most trusted ally of BJP.

In AP Congress was buried 20 feet below ground with their highhanded and unjust bifurcation of AP in 2014. Now in 2018, BJP got buried 30 feet below the ground for their cheating the people of AP by not implementing provisions of AP Reorganization Act, not granting Special Category Status to AP and denying financial support for 19+ items and in the process insulting people of AP. BJP cadres are dumb faced and are scared of facing people of AP, despite their leadership ordering them to explain that they have done everything. So far, opposition parties were in disarray and now Modi's arrogance had provided opportunity to unite form alliance(s) to defeat BJP in the forthcoming elections. Even UP's recent bye election debacle, has not taught Modi any lesson. Instead of mending his ways and do the right thing, he preferred to kneel down before Shiv Sena for support. Modi's arrogance may end up in isolation of BJP in NDA and many trusted allies are likely to exit. Even though unlikely, if for any reason no confidence motion wins, mid term elections are a certainty paving the way for formation of non-BJP government in Delhi.

TDP quits [pushed out of] Modi ministry

• Both Civil Aviation Minister Ashok Gajapathi Raju and Minister of State for Science and Technology YS Chowdary handed over their resignation letters to Modi on Mar 8, 2018. Reacting to the TDP’s decision, two of the BJP ministers in the AP government, have also handed in their resignations a day earlier.
• The ‘uneasy’ ties between the BJP and the TDP hurtled to the edge with both partners hardening their stances on the issue of SCS. FM Arun Jaitley’s statement on Mar 7, 2018, when he categorically ruled out SCS, with added sarcasm and awkward body language, had precipitated matters. In essence BJP has pushed TDP out of Modi's NDA ministry.
• Modi reportedly made a call to Chandrababu Naidu in the evening. The TDP chief had spoken his mind on how the Centre had reneged on its promise, his 29 visits to the national Capital and finally, the PM not taking attending to his call on Mar 7, 2018. Naidu also told Modi that the people of AP were seething over FM Arun Jaitley's insulting comments. Naidu had asked Modi to do something for AP "since he had the authority".
• Naidu declined Modi's suggestion to come over to Delhi for discussions maintaining that the irreversible process has started and there is nothing for him to discuss. It is for Modi to honor all promises made in parliament and implement provisions of AP Re-organisation Act quickly since 4 years had already elapsed. Failing which TDP may exit from NDA too, very soon.
• Naidu said that Jaitley's statement was insulting to the TDP. Naidu slammed the FM for saying "sentiments will not decide the quantum of funds". Naidu's decision was appreciated and supported by all non-BJP parties.
• One national party has deceived AP and other national party has cheated AP. It’s for the nation to understand which is one and two, YS Chowdary said. The beauty of democracy, he further said, was to bring unanimity and make everyone happy and this was the BJP's responsibility.
• Between 2015-17, while Naidu made 29 trips to Delhi, during 2018 he was not even granted appointment by Modi indicating deterioration of ties. "This is the first step. We will go ahead with other actions later," PTI quoted Naidu.
• "We are committed to giving monetary equivalent to SCS to Andhra Pradesh ..." is the sentence repeatedly said by FM Jaitley and other BJP leaders, during the past 4 years, but in reality very little help was extended to AP. They adapted all kinds of delaying tactics especially for Polavaram project and capital Amaravati.
• The Congress said "The parochial autocratic alliance led by Narendra Modi could never accept a divergence of opinions or plurality and the splintering of the NDA that you are seeing now is a reflection of that philosophy of the PM and the BJP. And it does not start or end here." They said TDP is the oldest ally of the NDA as Naidu used to be the convener of the NDA, and Naidu showed the courage of his conviction to call a spade a spade in speaking out when Modi was the CM of Gujarat.
• “You cannot run away from your responsibility by attacking us. The Congress party was completely routed from AP for hurting the sentiments of the people. If you continue to hurt our sentiments by denying SCS, which is our right, you will have to meet the same fate” Naidu said.
• Prior to resignations announcement, TDP leaders said the BJP had pushed them to a position where taking a “tough stand” was the only option left. Naidu said he will take a call on whether or not to remain in the NDA before the second leg of the budget session ends. 
• FM Arun Jaitley citing 14th Finance Commissions recommendations coming in the way of granting SCS to AP is totally false and misleading. Even its former chairman YV Reddy clarified this matter. There is no body which comes in the way of working of Parliament and Central Government within the frame work of constitution. Modi is the real culprit and villain. All others are just parrots.

Most central ministers are sympathetic towards the problems of AP ever since AP Re-organisation in 2014, it was Modi who was adamant in not extending necessary help to AP. All the ministers are just speaking his mind while he is maintaining silence. Modi has no respect for statutes, institutions & people and his propensity is to bend constitution, acts and rules to suit what ever he wants to do without following any kind of democratic process. His style has chilling similarity with Italy's fascist dictator Mussolini and his actions are with spectacles without any substance. While Modi is adamant by nature and has 16 year old grievances against Naidu, nothing will happen since BJP's LS numbers are comfortable. TDP exiting NDA is a certainty and that is good for AP too. But with all major parties ditching NDA, BJP saddled with all round failures of Modi will have uphill task in 2019 elections with Rahul Gandhi's graph rising day by day and UPA scams losing its charm. BJP ending up in opposition benches is not ruled out. If Rahul Gandhi becomes PM in 2019, the credit goes to Modi for achieving this impossible feat in 5 years which Sonia Gandhi couldn't do in her 10 year UPA regime.

The present crisis provides an opportunity to Vice President Venkaiah Naidu to resign and declare his solidarity with the people of his home state of AP. He has already been sidelined by Modi when nominated to VP's post last year. Having reached dead end of his political career, Venkaiah Naidu must rise above politics and become a "hero of a cause" emulating Kakani Venkataratnam in 1973.

Nandyal bypoll result - Jagan lives in denial

• The Nandyal by-election was projected to be seen as a referendum on the three years of the AP's TDP chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's rule.
• 25 years ago, the TDP under NT Rama Rao conceded a walkover in Nandyal for the Lok Sabha bypoll, enabling Telugu bidda PV Narsimha Rao win the seat after becoming prime minister. 
• In 2014, YSRCP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy won defeating TDP's Silpa Mohan Reddy by a slender majority of 2% votes. 
• In an extremely unethical political situation, Late Bhuma Nagi Reddy's nephew is pitted as TDP's candidate against YSRCP's Silpa Mohan Reddy after a spate of defections and, AP Speaker doing nothing about the defections, and due to death of TDP's Bhuma Nagi Reddy.
• The established norm is that when an MP or MLA dies mid-term, the party holding the seat is allowed a no-contest, with the other party not putting up a candidate. Nandyal is a peculiar situation, where both the YSRCP and the candidate's family (of TDP) asked each other to back off, making a contest inevitable.
• Naidu has taken the by-election very seriously. He has involved all party seniors, and has campaigned extensively himself, making it a prestigious battle. The TDP chief has personally reached out to different community leaders, distributing sops to the electorate to ensure victory for the ruling party.
• Naidu even issued a subtle threat to those who wouldn't vote for the TDP, saying he will have nothing to do with those villages. He said, "You take pension doled out by my government, walk on the roads laid by my administration, take ration and use the glow of the streetlights erected by us. Why wouldn't you vote for us?"
• Naidu keeping BJP state leaders out of election campaign and avoiding Muslims wrath, who are 20% of voters, was a good strategy that paid off.
• Nandyal is the first political test for Nara Lokesh, Naidu's son, party general secretary and the state IT minister. It is one thing to lure Opposition MLAs to the ruling camp by using political clout, and quite another to win an election. The victory proved Lokesh's credentials as a politician. 
• For the YSRCP, Nandyal was the best chance to show anti-incumbency. Its loss is likely to result in more migrations from YSRCP to TDP in the next two years. 
• While TDP is largely seen as a Kamma dominated party, YSRCP has a larger Reddy community presence. In the Reddy vs Reddy fierce battle, YSRCP's defeat confirmed weakened Reddy community support to YSRCP that Jagan enjoyed in the past. 
• Nandyal has voters of 20% Muslims & 10% Vysyas and large Dalits as well. TDP victory is seen as its patronization by Muslims, Vysyas & Dalits apart from Reddys as well.
• The Nandyal defeat is severe setback for Prashant Kishore, YSRCP strategist for 2019. Kishor was introduced to the party three months ago, with Jagan saying that Kishor will help them in 'Mission 2019'. It is rumored that Kishor charged Jagan hefty fees of Rs.50 crores.
• Nothing will change for the people of Nandyal. Politics in India, especially that in the Rayalaseema region of AP, is practised that members of one or two families are allowed hegemony over a constituency for decades. Nandyal is no exception as the leaders move from one party to another and their support base moves with them, like a herd.
• Both TDP & YSRCP are believed to have spent about Rs.500 crores and vote-for-cash is rumored between Rs.2,000 & Rs.5,000. 

If we don't learn on our own, adversity will teach us lessons 

Since 2004 Nandyal was bastion of Reddys from Congress & later YSR Congress. With this bypoll TDP regained its lost hold after two decades. Extending - it indicates erosion of Jagan's grip in Rayalaseema due to his arrogance and vulgar abuses. Roja filled up where ever there were gaps in abuses. Even after, Jagan lives in denial and will only ruin himself and YSRCP. Now Jagan will have uphill task to hold his folks together with 2019 indications clearly favoring TDP & Chandrababu Naidu. The highlight of this TDP's win is that it fought out alone without involving BJP leaders in campaigning and soliciting support of Pawan Kalyan, whose support probably might have helped TDP winning over YSRCP in 2014 general election with slender majorities in many constituencies.

Venkaiah Naidu nominated for Vice President. Why?

Senior BJP leader and party veteran Venkaiah Naidu was picked up as the ruling NDA's vice-presidential candidate to contest against opposition nominee Gopalkrishna Gandhi. Naidu's name was finalised at a meeting of the BJP parliamentary board here attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, party president Amit Shah and other senior party leaders. There was no happiness in Venkaiah Naidu's face, rather he was sad for punishment meted out to him.

• Why was the 68-year-old leader was coerced to file his nomination for ornamental Vice President position? 
• Naidu openly expressed his desire to continue as Union Minister and continue in active politics. 
• This is despite and not showing any interest in either President or Vice President positions, which are ornamental positions. Not once but several times.
• Why was his preference ignored and decision made against his wishes? 
• Ramnath Kovind, who was nobody when Naidu was National President of BJP, was already nominated for President's post. Even Modi was his junior in party. 
• Nominating Naidu to work under Kovind is nothing short of an insult. 
• This is in contradiction to Modi's earlier assertion not to sacrifice anyone from his cabinet for President & Vice President positions. 
• This is analogous to Congress style of destroying an active & powerful person coercing him to resign and accept ignominious positions like Governor and afterwards fade out.

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• Venkaiah Naidu was one of the first persons in BJP to switch loyalties from Advani and join the rogue group headed by Modi in 2013. He stood as his confident and trouble shooter all these years and was suddenly shown the exit door by Modi. Why? What are the real reasons?
• In 2002, AP CM Chandrababu Naidu was vehement that Modi should resign as Gujarat CM in the wake of Gujarat Riots. Chandrababu Naidu even made statement that he would arrest Modi if he enters AP. When Modi tried to meet Chandrababu Naidu at Delhi to explain Gujarat riots matters, he was denied appointment by Babu. 
• After Modi became PM, Chandrababu Naidu (AP CM now) tried to bend backwards to please him but that didn't cut ice with Modi. 
• Venkaiah Naidu and Chandrababu Naidu belongs to neighboring districts, same caste and very close to each other for over 4 decades. Modi never trusted either of these two Naidu's except using them.
• Of late Venkaiah Naidu's confidential remarks that Modi is becoming increasingly inaccessible even to his cabinet and his aversion to listen to genuinely good things must have reached Modi.
• Contradiction with Amit Shah regarding BJP to grow independently breaking alliance with TDP in TS & AP is another point of friction.
• Venkaiah Naidu prevailing over Telangana's BJP leaders to break its TDP alliance was another issue with Amit Shah.
• AP BJP leaders who don't like Venkaiah Naidu are of the opinion that breaking away with TDP and allying with YCP would get them greater share of power positions than what Naidu was granting them. The elements led by Ram Madhav convinced Amit Shah.
• Chandra Babu Naidu being a tough bargainer would never yield even a single extra position where BJP is not fairly stronger than TDP. That irks BJP state leaders who wants to piggy ride on TDP's back to power positions .
• Amit Shah is convinced that unless Venkaiah Naidu is eased out of BJP and alliance broken with TDP, junior leaders in AP & TS, BJP won't grow in AP. While Modi knew the reality and prevailed so far, has now yielded to Amit Shah & Co.
• Now it is a matter of time, BJP will break alliance with TDP and ally with YCP well before 2019 elections and Jagan surrendering to BJP as quid pro quo favor to go soft on his CBI & ED cases. 
• Chandra Babu Naidu may very well pay huge price for trusting Modi even before 2014 election results. Intelligence is jumping out of sinking ship well in advance. Chandra Babu Naidu should preemptively walk out of NDA and go to public explaining injustices meted out to AP by Modi & Co.
• And this would make Ex-Congress leaders in BJP like Purandeshwari, Kavuri Sambasiva Rao, Kanna Lakshminarayana etc, BJP Kapu leaders like Somu Veerraju and TS BJP leaders like M.Krishna Reddy etc many more happy.
• But BJP, with no grass roots cadres in rural areas and their ideologies vague and no worthwhile poor & peasant policies, making inroads into rural AP & TS is an uphill task.

My View:

If by a good chance, Chandra Babu Naidu and KCR gets re-elcted with BJP opposing them, BJP will get doomed and suffer severe damage in Telugu states of AP & TS. Naidu should assert his forgotten pride of Telugu people and make Modi's injustices transparent to Telugu people. Naidu & KCR should remember development is not the prime thing concerning people. Above that are good governance, minimal corruption, long term vision and taking care of poor & peasants. Needless to say, Venkaiah Naidu paid a bitter price for keeping politics above everything. He should have been more loyal to his motherland - the state of AP rather than Modi & BJP for their selfish dirty politics which inflicted injustice to AP.  Advani would be smiling for Venkaiah Naidu's debasement for ditching him in preference to rising Modi in 2013.

Chandrababu Naidu talks rubbish with Bankers

My View:
Everyone knows that Bank employees are seized with a single task of exchanging old notes with new notes and and are working daily around 12 hours instead of 8 hours but non supply of required quantities of new notes by RBI is exposing them to anger of public waiting in queues for several hours, for the past 25 days. At this juncture while Narendra Modi appreciated their efforts but AP CM Chandrababu Naidu pulled them for not working on Saturdays and Sundays to issue the RuPay cards. This has compelled bankers making revolting statements that they are not subordinates to state governments and are bound by RBI & their bank regulations. Ironically they stopped attending CM's review meetings but were represented by junior officers only to mark attendance.

Naidu, if he has guts he should point out at Centre & RBI for not supplying enough replacement cash for distribution, rather than pressurizing them to work on Saturdays & Sundays. His contention is that people are suffering and he doesn't care for bankers sufferings is deplorable. People are not suffering because of any act of God but for the mindless act of Modi and senseless support by Naidu and trying to score big on cashless transactions.

Naidu must stop cheap tactics thrashing others to showoff as a big man. Instead he should do big things to present himself as big man. If he is courageous & principled he should hit back at Modi for landing the nation in this imbroglio.

ABN Andhra Jyothi - RK Kothapaluku Sep 11, 2016

• The editorial shows RK's shift from AP towards TRS and BJP suggestive of accepting their superiority just because they are at giving end and AP at receiving end. This is unprincipled.
• Even though Pawan Kalyan's outbursts at Kakinada indicates his political immaturity but reflects the feelings of people of AP in reality.
• The 'Central Assistance to AP' package unveiled by Arun Jaitley & Venkaiah Naidu on Sep 08, 2016 falls short of fulfilling the obligations of Central Government contained in AP Reorganisation Act 2014 and promises made by then PM on the floor of RS while passing the bill at the behest of BJP leaders. Hence it is outright rejectable. No person with some kind of self respect will suggest its acceptance.
• RK quoting Andhra leaders walking out of Madras city immediately on announcing Andhra statehood without Madras city is only on the persuasion by Nehru to resolve the issue arising out of death of Potti Sreeramulu and its aftermath and avoiding conflict with stubborn C.Rajagopalachari CM, Madras state rather than any thing else. Nehru assured Andhra leaders about his acceptance to form linguistic states very soon and first linguistic state will be with merger of Andhra state and nine telugu speaking districts of Hyderabad state with Hyderabad city as its capital. Distorting facts and  writing in obscene language is indicative of either ignorance of facts or stupidity or both, by RK.
• RK should realise that Andhra statehood including Northern parts of Madras city was recommended by Madras Governor to Viceroy in 1930's but due to World War II it got stalled. Andhra statehood was promised by Gandhi in early 1940's but were asked to wait till independence.  But Gandhi died with in months of independence. It was C. Rajagopalchari powerful Tamil CM of Madras who could stall creation of Andhra state that resulted in frustration, fasting and death of Potti Sreeramulu. Trying to avoid confrontation with CR, Nehru persuaded Andhra leaders to forego Madras city and promised Hyderabad city while forming linguistic state of Andhra Pradesh. In the light of these facts, RK's loose comments on Andhra is uncharitable and despicable.
• Chandrababu Naidu, TDP CM of AP has full majority in the Assembly and he could very well reject the insulting package of Modi and survive in power. Who knows who will win in 2019 elections. I wish Modi not. Principles, self respect (NTR's anti Indira slogan of 1983) and political honesty are not negotiable and few thousands of crores is not worthy of that. 
• I would be glad if CBN calls it a day with BJP both at Centre & State and rejects the package and files 'writ of mandamus' in SC for directing Centre to fulfill its obligations of centre to AP as per AP Reorganisation Act 2014, which they didn't do deliberately on some pretext or other.
• Hats off to ONGC Charman Dinesh K Sarraf for filing case against Reliance as A1 and Union Government Ministry of Petroleum (70% shareholder in ONGC) as A2 in 'Great Indian Gas Robbery by Reliance' and safeguarding ONGC interests walking extra miles. I wish Chandra Babu Naidu to take clue from this.
• Venkaiah Naidu & Arun Jaitley (both opposition BJP leaders in RS then) has raised the matter of  'Special category Status' for AP in Rajya Sabha in 2014 and projected this as a magic wand which will solve all the problems arising out of mindless bifurcation of state by both Congress & BJP and the same was agreed on the floor of RS by the then UPA PM in the form of statement minutes before passing the Bill. And now same Venkaiah Naidu & Arun Jaitley, Central Ministers, at the behest of PM Modi, dares to say that certain NDC procedures doesn't allow them for granting SCS to AP now and came out with another magic wand called 'Central Assistance to AP' package which in its true sense is half of the obligations as per AP Reorganisation Act 2014 and expects AP people just accept it without applying their mind & brain. What an audacity on the part of BJP leaders for this shameless gesture. If they have guts let them conduct public meeting at Benz Centre, Vijayawada, talk about this and walk out in single piece without Police protection. 
• Needless to say that Union Government is accountable to Parliament only and nobody else as long as it follows Constitution and its statutes. Planning Commission, NDC etc are its subordinate organisations and their procedures are not binding on Union Cabinet. Even less educated person can vouch for this. BJP should understand what they are talking on SCS not granting to AP.
• If I have the authority, I would reject the package in its totality and insist on fulfilling AP Reorganisation Act 2014 provisions and promises made on the floor of Rajya Sabha to be in full, come what may within reasonable time frame.
• RK's suggestion to accept package and whatever it is worth, is unacceptable non-sense. People of AP are not beggars with begging bowl kneeling in front of Modi to accept what ever he feels like giving.
• RK praising KCR and his tendencies as a great political skills in another nonsense. On other hand High Court and Supreme Court admonished him for his illegal acts in at least 15 cases and some more cases in pipe line. I haven't seen such a shameless CM losing 15 cases in courts and continuing in that position. KCR resisting to hand over assets due to AP even after SC judgement and its time limit expired indicates how much respect he has for constitution, laws of the land etc. And height of stupidity is RK praising his maneuvers as great administrative skills.
• The writing will go endless and is worth stopping here.
• I wish RK will regain his lost senses.

Chandrababu Naidu's extravaganza for personal fancies

Chandrababu Naidu has spent over Rs.100 crores for his personal comforts, chartered flights & fancies. His recent Russian trip with a team and hiring chartered aircraft paying crores of rupees is another addition to the list apart from extravagant swearing in ceremony and capital city's foundation stone laying by PM Modi.

Full article is at : http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Funds-flow-freely-for-Naidus-own-expenses/articleshow/47135892.cms

Lenders & Financiers will always be wary of this type of spending as reflected by Govt of India's withholding budget deficit gap financing for years 2014-15, 2015-16 for thorough scrutiny and other assistance as promised in AP Reorganization Act 2014.

US lawmakers admonished CEO's of GM, Chrysler & Ford for travelling chartered fights from Detroit to Washington DC for seeking $25 billion bailout package from US Federal Government on November 19, 2008, even though it was their standard policy for safety of top executives.

Full article is at: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/11/19/autos.ceo.jets/

If people of AP believes that Chandrababu Naidu will get in funds for investments from abroad, they are mistaken. Funding agencies do thorough due-diligence to ensure that their investments are safe and earn assured returns. And this type of extravaganza falls short of their expectations. Trying to create hype and attract investments by making power point presentations and colorful brochures are of no use when ground reality is contrary to it.

My View:
Chandrababu Naidu acquiring land in the name of "Land Mobilization" for Capital Amaravati is in fact state doing real estate business is unethical & wrong. The right method is to identify land and acquire it, in 5 phases of 5,000 acres each, and pay compensation as per statutes. For the capital all that is needed is to construct Raj Bhawan, Assembly & Council, High Court, Secretariat , Offices & Quarters and some more land for public utility purpose like Convention Center, Guest Houses etc. All put together, 10,000 acres would be sufficient but 25,000 acres would be splendid for accommodating institutions like education city, health city, information technology city, film city, sports village, business & financial districts etc. Industrial growth (non polluting) could be earmarked on degraded forest land denotified around the capital. We don't need to build iconic structures with Singapore help. We can have decent, economic, efficient buildings. Iconic buildings should be limited to Raj Bhawan, Assembly & Council, High Court, Secretariat and 5* Hotels only. No wastage of money through extravaganza. In India, we have enough expertise to undertake this activity. Thinking of competing with Hyderabad, Bangalore & Chennai is futile. In fact we should fall back on these cities. For building capital Amaravati we could obtain financial help from Center, borrow at low interest & long term loans from HUDCO and World Bank. Providing air connectivity to all metros in India and nearby international destinations like Dubai, Singapore & Hong Kong with further connections to world would be great idea for Trade, Tourism and IT development.

Nothing comes FREE in this word. Paying by cash is the cheapest. Any other mode will have inherent and much higher payments.