Modi's MSP hike is betrayal of farmers

For the previous year 2017

"I am delighted that the promise made by the government to our farmer brothers and sisters of giving minimum support price at 1.5 times the production cost has been fulfilled. There has been a historic increase in the MSP. Congratulations to all farmers," Modi tweeted in Hindi.

In keeping with the promise made in this year’s Budget speech, the Union Cabinet has approved a hike in minimum support prices (MSPs) for kharif crops so that they are 50% higher than the cost of production, not including land costs. Modi announces this proudly and  tweets " We are honored and humbled that we had the opportunity to take a decision on the historic increase of MSP, which will further enhance India’s agricultural transformation." Officials in the Agriculture Ministry proposed much higher rate than advisory body CACP’s recommendation to cover losses due to a fall in prices of crops following bumper production.

• This MSP meager hike and grand announcement by Modi is in reality a betrayal of farmers. The revision is estimated to cost the central government just Rs 15,000 crore only. 
• Most farmers are tenant farmers and land costs form major portion of the expenditure. 
• BJP has betrayed farmers yet again by announcing MSP for kharif crops based on A2+FL costs instead of the promised C2 costs. (A2 costs basically cover all paid-out expenses, both in cash and in kind, incurred by farmers on seeds, fertilisers, chemicals, hired labour, fuel, irrigation, etc.  A2+FL cover actual paid-out costs plus an imputed value of unpaid family labour. C2 costs are more comprehensive, accounting for the rentals and interest forgone on owned land and fixed capital assets respectively, on top of A2+FL)
• If MSP had been announced on C2 basis, then paddy MSP price hike would have been at least Rs 700 per quintal, but the government has only increased it by Rs 200 per quintal.
• The major crop is paddy whose MSP was increased from Rs.1,550 to Rs.1,750 a quintal i.e. just Rs.200 or 12.9% in an election year. This hike falls short of 20.8% hike announced by UPA-I for 2008-09, also an election year.
• The total Paddy MSP hike during NDA regime during 2014-18 to just 41% compared with 69% hike during UPA-II period 2009-13.
• There are no guaranteed mechanisms for procurement of most other crops. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) buys wheat and rice only from farmers directly at MSP and supply the grains under the food security law. 
• Higher MSPs alone would not bring relief to India’s distressed farming sector, because penetration of MSP benefits are limited to some states. Eastern states remain largely remained untouched by the benefits of MSP, while states like Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh, parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra and southern states are major beneficiaries. Small and marginal farmers are not aware of these benefits.
• The much hyped MSP increase for coarse grains and pulses is of little use for farmers in the absence of robust procurement system like Paddy. To make MSP functional, Centre should also announce State wise procurement target, which is missing.
• BKU-Rajewal president Balbir Singh Rajewal said actual input costs were much higher than factored by the CACP and the BJP government. An additional input costs like GST on fertilisers and machines and diesel prices should take MSP on paddy to at least Rs 3,200 per quintal.
• This year will see three crucial elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and distressed farmers will surely teach lesson to ruling BJP who are also facing anti-incumbency.

Artificially depressing the agricultural commodity prices for several decades resulted in the reduced income of farmers and farm labour. If free market existed in agriculture, farm income could have been much higher. Lower farm incomes are negatively influencing unskilled labour prices as they serve as benchmark for rural population coming to cities for work. So there is urgent need for free global agriculture market for better incomes and for unskilled labour.

BJP and Modi as usual does politics with grand announcements only with style and no substance followed with relentless publicity misleading one and all. The MS Swaminathan committee’s widely disseminated recommendation, to fix MSP at levels “at least 50% more than the weighted average cost of production”, remains a holy grail or partial reality at best. The unremunerative procurement prices by government is nothing but exploitation of captive, uneducated and unskilled people who are trapped in farming as subsistence avocation. With fragmented land holdings (82% land holdings are under 5 acres), unless double the C2 prices are realized by the farmers, they can't lead dignified life. Unrealistic loss making farming will only accelerate migration of youth from villages to towns & cities and overburden its deficient infrastructure. And villages will be left with aged, old and sick people who will have to live on government pensions and other concessions.

Return of protectionism

Prime minister Narendra Modi has applauded India’s latest budget delivered by his finance minister Arun Jaitley, but the parallel chorus is fading out by the day. It was Utrjit Patel, RBI governor last week, this time it’s Modi’s former advisors, Arvind Panagariya, who was also deputy chairman of the Niti Aayog until August 2017.

The RBI's monetary policy committee listed out reasons why inflation could stay well above the RBI target of 4% throughout the next financial year. RBI expects a rise in food and vegetable prices, crude oil prices and cost of health and personal care. Three other factors that will likely fuel inflation emanate from Jaitley’s budget. 

• Proposal to raise minimum support price (MSP) for farm products
• Hike in custom duties for various products including industrial inputs
• Wider-than-expected fiscal deficit

All this assuming that the south-west monsoon will be normal this year. The future of investments is  as bleak as it was before. For Modi government, these  nonchalant jabs from the RBI governor it is yet another sign that its populist budget may not help push the growth pedal. 

Substantial liberalisation under PV Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India became the first democracy to achieve 8% plus growth for nine years beginning in 2003-04. The top industrial tariff rate fell from 355% in 1990-91 to 10% in 2007-08 and imports and as proportion of the GDP expanded to 30% and exports to 24% by 2011-12. Sadly, a new generation of bureaucrats seems to have now replaced its more enlightened predecessor. It is on course to erect the wall of protection all over again. 

Those who cannot remember the past,
are condemned to repeat it ... George Santayana 

Much is said about liberalisation and globalisation which benefited only one half of the world population while leaving other half in distress. What is visible is the constant economic growth that had eradicated extreme poverty and at the same time helped rich to become extreme rich, albeit unjustly. The casualty is environment, over extraction of non replenishable natural resources and workers with stagnant wages in developed nations. Today, US has accumulated trade debt of $20 trillion, up from $1 trillion during 1980's and has no clue or any forward looking plans to repay that debt and trade gap of $100 trillion is likely in next few decades and is saddled with huge industrial work force with stagnated wages. On other hand, China armed with huge trade plus faces deterioration of social values, degradation of landscape & environment and over exploited 150 million labour force with no human rights for over 30 years. Economics are complex and any change usually has unintended consequences. Over dependence on either exports or imports, for prosperity, is detrimental to any nation. The prudence lies in living within means and/or maintaining manageable trade gap at all times. Economic growth is never a true indicator of progress, development and wellness of any nation.

Rahul Gandhi proves his mettle

Today, after winning successive elections since 2014 except Bihar, Delhi and Punjab [BJP & allies rule expanded to 19 of 29 states; Congress rule restricted to just 5 states] the invincible Prime Minister Modi is scared of only one man by the name Rahul Gandhi, whom he & his trolls once described as 'pappu' and a 'reluctant politician'. During the past six months Rahul Gandhi smashed all these and gave a spirited and stunning fight in Gujarat election making Modi and his BJP machine sweat like never before. Here are some points proving his mettle:

1. Rahul Gandhi said on demonetisation "Initially the government spoke about black-money, then moved to counterfeit currency and then again to a cashless society campaign. The prime minister took this so-called bold decision single-handedly. The bold decision can also be a foolish decision. And this has devastated the country. More than 100 people have died. Farmers, fishermen, daily wage earners have been hit hard." He also said "Dr Jaitley, the economy is in the ICU because of notes ban and GST. Aap kehtey hai aap kissi sey kum nahi/ magar aapki dava mein dum nahi."
2. Rahul Gandhi said on GST roll out "A reform that holds great potential is being rushed through in a half-baked way with a self-promotional spectacle. GST is being executed by an incompetent and insensitive government without planning, foresight and institutional readiness. India deserves a GST roll out that does not put crores of its ordinary citizens, small businesses & traders through tremendous pain & anxiety. Their GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. Small shopkeepers are finished. Lakhs of youths have been unemployed. But they are still not ready to listen. Congress GST is 'Genuine Simple Tax'. Modiji’s GST is 'Gabbar Singh Tax'." 
3. Rahul Gandhi hammers on 'unemployment' issue repeatedly. On his superb trip to USA he said, "I think the central reason why Mr. Modi arose is the question of jobs in India. There’s a large part of our populations that simply do not have jobs and cannot see a future. But, certainly our prime minister is not doing enough in creating jobs. 30,000 new youngsters are joining the job market every single day and yet the government is only creating 500 jobs a day. My main issue with Mr Modiji is that he diverts that issue and points the finger somewhere else instead of listening." Though the ruling government floated a plethora of schemes like ‘Make in India’, ‘Startup India’ and ‘Digital India’, all of these initiatives proved to be duds.
4. Speaking on women rights back in 2014 Rahul Gandhi  said, "We talk a lot about becoming a superpower in the world but till the women of our country do not feel comfortable and secured, our country cannot become a superpower. And to tell you the truth, we don’t want such a superpower status, where women are not empowered. One thing I have learnt is if you empower women, they can do anything. One important battle we have to win is the women’s reservation Bill in Parliament. We’re not going to let go of it." The BJP had promised during their pre-election rallies that the women’s reservation bill would be passed as soon as they got into power. Despite three and a half years of Modi rule, the bill has not come up in the Lok Sabha so far.
5. Rahul Gandhi while speaking on intolerance had previously said, "Truth and Power are not the same thing. Truth is what stands up to power. Today, there is no doubt that the emperor is completely naked but there is no one with any courage to point it out. When the British came to India, people handed over freedom to them. It was never taken away from us. This could very well happen now. Both the RSS and Mr Modi want to create a country where people live in utmost fear surrendering their voice so that they can rule unhindered. Mr Modi, after locking his cabinet colleagues in a room announced demonetization which wiped off lakhs of jobs. Many media houses have been depicting this as a work of genius even while admitting in private that it was an act of insanity. Most of them have lost their voice." At his recently concluded USA trip, he again said, "What happened to the tolerance that prevailed in India? What happened to the harmony? For thousands of years, India has had a reputation of peace and harmony. This is being challenged. Our most powerful asset is that 1.3 billion people lived happily, non-violently, peacefully. This is something that as Congress people, every single one of us has to defend."
6. On agrarian crisis Rahul Gandhi said in a rally in Maharashtra, "Everyone knows that a farmer needs the support of the nation and the State Government. If you ask any farmer, how much money comes from their farm, then every farmer will tell you – if the MSP is not increased, if there are no rains and no compensation or bonus is given, then they won’t be able to work, and this is the truth behind today’s India."  Criticising the ruling NDA Government, Rahul said in Gujarat "the suit boot government doesn’t do anything for the farmers." Speaking earlier this year to the bereft farmers from Tamil Nadu, he said,” The farmers have been sitting here for so long. But neither the government nor the Prime Minister is listening to them. The people and farmers of Tamil Nadu deserve to be heard by the Prime Minister who is disrespecting them by not initiating any dialogue. Over the last three years, debt worth Rs 1.4 lakh crore held by 50 industrialists have been written off. Why the same is not being done in case of the farmers? Why are their debts not being waived? It is the Prime Minister’s responsibility to do so.” 
7. Rahul Gandhi has made the 'failed development model of BJP' as the body and soul of his Gujarat campaign. Modi had come to power based on the stellar work he had apparently done in Gujarat which he promised would be juxtaposed to other states as well. But Rahul Gandhi ripped that narrative to pieces saying, "Gujarat model of development can be called toffee model or ‘gubbara’ (balloon) model, which is nothing but loot of public money to benefit big people like Tata and Adani. Modi had given away 45,000 acres belonging to poor farmers and the size of Bihar’s Purnea district to a single person (Adani) at a rate of rupees one per sq metre which is equivalent to the price of a toffee. He gave away the entire stretch of land at a paltry sum of Rs.300 crores. Modi had also provided Rs.10,000 crore loan to Tata Motors for its Nano car project at 0.1% interest, while the common man get loan from banks at 12% interest. For every Nano car, the Gujarat government is providing Rs.40,000 assistance. The total budget of the Gujarat government on education, health and other welfare is less than Rs.10,000 crore." Speaking later he added, "Vikas has gone crazy? India’s economy has been destroyed. But everyone is quiet because they are afraid to speak against Narendra Modiji. These are not my words. Senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha has written this in a newspaper article today. Poverty reduction in Gujarat was highlighted as a huge success but reports have since shown that it has been slower than most of the other states. There has been undoubted progress in electrification and infrastructure development but that has mostly played in the hands of the corporate sector with little to no improvement for the masses! If Gujarat model was dissected, an entire thesis could well be written on it with both pros and cons. We would just stop short of calling it a bigger success than it was.
8. We worked for 10 years to bring peace in Kashmir. Speaking in USA on the violence in the valley, Rahul Gandhi said, "PDP was instrumental in bringing youngsters in politics, but the day Modi made alliance with PDP, he destroyed them (PDP). He (Modi) massively opened up space for the terrorists in Kashmir, and you saw the increase in violence.Violence against anybody is wrong. Hatred, anger and violence can destroy us, the politics of polarisation is dangerous. These incidents are making millions feel that they have no future in their country. I lost my father, my grandmother to violence, if I don’t understand violence then who will?"

Read the source article

Rahul Gandhi blames the BJP for spreading abuses about him

Farmer losses Rs.36,000 due to prices falling below MSP

• This year farm produce procurement prices have gone below the government-set minimum support price (MSP) for major kharif crops.
• Just by not getting the support price, total loss incurred by farmers is estimated to be Rs 36,000 crore in seven kharif crops -- paddy, maize, bajra, soyabean, groundnut, urad and cotton due to lack of government action.
• In reality, the announced MSPs are highly inadequate.
• It could be as much as Rs 200,000 crore if the loss is calculated from the actual cost of production plus 50% profit as assured by BJP in its election manifesto of 2014.
• The losses would be much more if other crops and perishable items such as potatoes and onions, are also considered.
• Six states have announced farm loan waivers following the Prime Minister’s announcement of a loan waiver amounting to Rs 36,000 crore during his UP election campaign. These waivers account for Rs 1.5 lakh crore or 23% of institutional lending.  
• The reasons that led to high indebtedness do not change. The banker will be double-cautious to give a fresh loan to this ‘defaulted’ farmer’ next time. The credit culture goes for a toss. 
• RBI and NABARD have termed farm loan waivers temporary and inadequate measures, which will provide short-term gain for long-term pain. 
• Loan waivers are not a permanent solution and the government cannot runaway from the fact that only remunerative prices for their crops will enable farmers to survive without loan waivers.
• American farm subsidies are egregiously expensive, harvesting $20 billion a year. Most of the money goes to big, rich farmers producing staple commodities such as corn and soyabeans.
• The country has failed to manage surplus, often forcing farmers to dump tomato/ potato crops onto the streets, and it is here that infrastructure development is desperately required. This has to be followed up by various initiatives to provide cheaper credit and other measures to prop up agriculture.
• Unless farmer emerges debt free, there is no way farming can be turned into a profitable venture. It is estimated that Rs 12.50 lakh crore is the level of farm indebtedness that prevails.
• At present, only six percent farmers get the benefit of MSP. Ninety four percent of farmers are dependent on the markets. If these markets were efficient, there is no reason why farming should have been in a terrible crisis.
• Modi must understand that being on a perpetual promissory mode is fraught with dangers. So far, Modi remained in perpetual dream-merchant mode, promising endless undertakings. Inability to deliver such pledges is now beginning to catch up.

On March 2, 2015, Narendra Modi became the first serving Prime Minister to visit Parliament canteen as a customer and have lunch. After paying Rs 29 for his lunch, PM Modi wrote in the visitors' diary: Annadata Sukhi Bhavah (May provider of food prosper). Two years later, the same provider of food is angry, hitting the streets and massive agitations were witnessed in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. The Modi government overlooked the fact that farming in India works beyond the limits of loans. Modi government's flagship schemes have not made any difference to lives of farmers. In Feb 2015, Modi government submitted an affidavit in the Supreme Court saying, 'Although we have promised in our manifesto that we will give remunerative prices to farmers as per the recommendations of the Swaminathan Commission, we are unable to do that because we find it impractical to do so. Therefore, we cannot do it.' In fact latest MSP's doesn't even cover the cost of production.

Make by Modi: Agrarian distress

Agriculture which was profitable until the start of liberalization i.e. mid 1990's gradually slipped into distress due to neglect by government and anti-farmer policies in pursuit of globalization. While the slide was gradual, Modi's mindless demonetization adventure dealt deadly blow and is now in deep crisis.

• On Nov 8, 2016, the Prime Minister Modi embarked on his demonetization adventure and the collapse of agricultural commodity prices has been unprecedented in the annals of independent India. Never before have prices of all commodities collapsed simultaneously in such a spectacular fashion. And, while all this has been happening, the emperors in New Delhi watched the tragedy unfold.
• Demonetisation happened just before the rabi sowing season, giving a serious jolt to farmers, for whom cash is the only mode of transaction. Peasants were losing incomes on a massive scale because of the price crash and loss of perishable crops, especially fruits and vegetables. Agricultural workers lost employment and wages owing to reduced agricultural activity and non-payment of wages for work done. The collapse in demand resulted in the destruction of vegetables, fruits and perishables. Farmers were unable to buy essential commodities and agricultural inputs. The rural economy was thrown into disarray and normal trade relations were irreparably damaged.
• The manner in which protests by drought-hit farmers from Tamil Nadu were treated in Delhi was a pointer to what farmers could expect from this government. In Aug 2016, Karnataka refused to release Cauvery river water to Tamil Nadu affecting delta farmers. The failure of monsoon was the next big blow to the farmers of Tamil Nadu. Hit by the drought, many farmers committed suicide as they were unable to repay their crop loans. Since then, farmers took to the streets everyday demanding drought relief fund. The Tamil Nadu government officially declared a drought in the state. The central government released Rs 1,740 crore in drought relief fund against the Rs 40,000 crore sought by the state government. Since mid-March 2017, a group of farmers has been staging a protest in New Delhi, demanding that the central government release Rs 40,000 crore. The protesting TN farmers in New Delhi stripped outside South Block on April 10, 2017 after they were denied permission to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
• Even after demonetization and after a semblance of “normalcy” returned, prices continued to be in free fall, resulting in more misery on the hapless peasantry. Never before have prices of all commodities fallen so drastically and without any signs of recovery in the near future. The RBI acknowledged this in its Monetary Policy Statement by conceding that the prices of vegetables fell markedly and bottomed out with “fire sales” during the demonetization period. The November misadventure of Modi, clearly, provides the backdrop for the present wave of protests, even if it is not the exclusive reason.
• Rainfall has been better this year. But rains alone do not make or break agriculture. More acreage was devoted to pulses, but the import of pulses from Mozambique killed the farmers’ hope of getting a better price. 
• The reduction of import duty on wheat, ostensibly to check inflation, has hurt the peasantry. Prices of most agricultural commodities are now at levels far below the government-announced minimum support price (MSP), even as production and input costs have soared.
• The MSP as a support mechanism has been rendered a farce because it is not backed by physical intervention by the government and its agencies. Betrayal of farmers’ interests may have taken many forms in recent times, but this is the most direct and brutal let-down of the peasantry.
• India has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Mozambique to import one lakh tonnes of pulses in 2016-17 and double it to two lakh tonnes by 2020-21; it is obvious that Indian buccaneers stand to take a fairly large slice of this opportunity. The government assured farmers there for provision of quality seeds, equipment and technology and procurement at an MSP level of Rs.5,050 a quintal. The entire cost of carriage, transportation and storage would also be borne by India. Contrast this largesse with the utter neglect of procurement from Indian farmers at a committed price.
• The import duty on wheat, which was 25% until September 2016, was initially reduced to 10% and exactly a month after demonetisation, on Dec 8, 2016, totally done away with. The wheat contracted from Ukraine is priced at Rs.1,329-1,431 a quintal, far below the Indian MSP of Rs.1,625 a quintal. The policy-induced dumping from other countries, even as India experiences a good harvest, has brought down prices even further. 
• In case of paddy while the MSP announced is Rs.1,470 a quintal, the absence of procurement centres forces farmers to sell at Rs.800-1,100 a quintal in large parts of north and eastern India. The cost of production of both wheat and paddy is also much higher than the official MSP. The fact that Kerala procures paddy at Rs.2,200 a quintal makes farmers elsewhere ask why their States do not come forward to do so too.
• The BJP government has done little to stabilize prices and assure farmers remunerative prices. Farmers in Mandsaur (MP) categorically said that they did not need loan waivers if they were paid remunerative prices for their produce. This sentiment was echoed by farmers across the country. In reality, reducing the cost of production by providing production-enhancing technologies and quality inputs at subsidised rates, and assuring procurement at remunerative price will go a long way in addressing farm distress. 
• Loan waivers are, at best, a palliative that can provide temporary relief to a small section of farmers. Tenant farmers, small and marginal farmers, agricultural workers and the landless rarely benefit from it. Unless basic and structural issues are addressed and comprehensive state intervention is made at the levels of production, procurement, processing and marketing, with adequate emphasis on cooperatives, loan waivers will be the easy way out for the political establishment.
• The BJP had come to power riding a wave of popular discontent against the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, promising that it would usher in “achhe din” for farmers and put an end to farm suicides. Increased public investment in agriculture and rural development, a minimum of 50 per cent profit over the cost of production, cheaper agricultural inputs and credit, latest technologies for farming and high-yielding seeds, linking of the MGNREGA to agriculture, a national land use policy to protect farmers’ interests and food security, farm insurance scheme to take care of crop and income losses, expansion of rural credit facilities, irrigation facilities, a price stabilisation fund, welfare measures and more were promised. What more could a farmer ask for? The fact that the BJP had made tall promises in the States, including loan waivers, had also raised expectations. Three years down the line, each of the promises made to the farmers and the rural poor stands betrayed.
• Suicides by farmers rose 42% between 2014 and 2015, despite under-reporting. BJP-ruled Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh accounted for more than half of all farm suicides in India.
• Farmers’ hope for prices recommended by the Swaminathan Commission, an expectation utilised to the hilt by Modi, was the first promise to be put in cold storage. The government also filed an affidavit in the Supreme Court stating that it was impossible to fix MSPs recommended by the commission, that is, at least 50 per cent above the cost of production. The blatant manner in which the most popular promise was shelved and trivialized as a mere election jingle has not gone down well with the peasantry. It was followed by an undisguised attempt at facilitating a corporate takeover of land through a draconian Land Acquisition Ordinance. Two consecutive years of drought had led to massive losses and the government response was seen as insensitive. Allocations to MGNREGA were also drastically cut, leading to mounting arrears of wages and the average days of work generated getting as low as only 34 days, instead of 100 days a year. 
• The spate of peasant movements and the broader issue-based unity that is successfully being built towards coordinated action against BJP governments at the Centre and in the States is a pointer to changing times. The protests are providing a basis to build a broader consensus for the fight against policies responsible for the agrarian distress and the loot of forests, land and resources. This, clearly, is a warning bell for the BJP regime and the Prime Minister. 
• Solidarity action against attacks on workers’ rights, women, Dalits and Adivasis and the barbaric attacks by vigilante gau rakshaks and restrictions on cattle trade are also increasing.
• But the fact of the matter is that in the states which were the BJP’s core support base, are in revolt. Many kisan leaders are openly recanting and rueing their association with the Sangh today. Raju Shetti of the Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, who was elected as a Member of Parliament from Maharashtra with NDA support went on a yatra to repent for having enlisted farmers’ support to make the BJP victorious.
• Peasantry organised massive mobilisations against the decision of the Vasundhare Raje-led BJP government in Rajasthan to hike electricity prices by 40%. The unprecedented mobilisation forced the government to withdraw the decision. 

Whether these rounds of protests snowball into a wider resistance against the policies that have undermined livelihoods in agriculture remains to be seen. But it is undeniable that the Indian peasant has clearly signalled that they have joined the fight against the ruinous policies that have taken farm livelihoods in India to the very brink.

In India, none can prosper while farmers are bleeding.

My View:
Who ever knew Modi well, knew very well that he has no love last for agriculture and is dictator and a demagogue, who doesn't like criticism of any kind. He doesn't have mannerisms even to answer parliament. Ill educated and lacking administrative skills, he makes decisions without knowing consequences. In a large and diverse nation like India any decision has to be taken after due examination, deliberation and refinement in appropriate forum. In Modi's India, all decisions originate from PMO only. He will do anything to win elections. His audacity has no bounds and publicizes failures as great achievements. Today, even his senior colleagues, once taller than him, are scared of telling him what he doesn't like. In his 3 year monstrous rule, he achieved nothing, but destroyed agriculture, destroyed informal economy, loss of millions of jobs, fudged economy's statistics which none will buy and lakhs of industries (small & medium) closed down. Fall in electricity demand is proof of that. The nation is experiencing 'jobless growth' & 'growth less jobs', a strange phenomenon. Almost all segments of economy are struggling. Kashmir deterioration is so bad even women and school girls participate in stone pelting. Foreign relations with neighbors has never deteriorated so badly. His endless foreign jaunts hasn't done any good so far. Almost all his projects like swachch bharat, make in india, demonetization, etc are utter flop bleeding exchequer. None of these are likely to hit their intended goals and nation will be saddled with unintended consequences. Hurried GST roll out while seemingly good might not deliver much good due to its mangling beyond recognition. Insane he is, he is accelerating in wrong direction. He will meet his Waterloo in 2019, and till then India has to suffer.

Farmers woes: Relevance of Swaminathan Commission Report

National Commission on Farmers (NCF)’s Swaminathan Commission Report is aimed at working out a system for food and nutrition security, sustainability in farming system, enhancing quality and cost competitiveness of farm commodities and also to recommend measures for credit and other marketing related steps. 

• The government of India constituted the NCF on November 18, 2004. The NCF was chaired by Professor M.S. Swaminathan. It submitted its fifth and final report on October 4, 2006. 
• The reports had suggestions for “faster and more inclusive growth” for farmers and agriculture sector .
• M.S. Swaminathan had requested the government to implement the recommendations given in the report so that it could provide minimum support price for grains, safeguard the interest of small farmers and addressing the issue of increasing risk overtaking agriculture as a profession.
• The Commission observed that farmers needed to have an assured access to and control over rightful basic resources that includes land, water, bio resources, credit and insurance, technology and knowledge management, and markets.
• Agriculture must be implemented in the concurrent list from the state list — hence putting it as a matter of concern for both the Union and the states.
• The commission said that the inequality in landholdings in shown starkly in land ownership. It said that in 1991-92, the share of the bottom 50 per cent of the rural households in the country’s total land ownership was only 3%. The top 10% owned as much as 54% of land.  
• One of the key reforms was land reforms. It was aimed to address the issue of access to and for both crops and livestock.
• Land Reforms: Distribution of ceiling-surplus and waste lands; prevention of diversion of prime agricultural land and forest to corporate sector for non-agricultural use; to ensure grazing rights are provided and seasonal access is allowed in forests to tribals and pastoralists. It recommended access to common property resources. One main case was establishing a National Land Use Advisory Service. The purpose of this service would be to connect land usage decisions with ecological meteorological and marketing factors.
• Irrigation Reforms: It recommended framing a set of reforms to provide farmers with sustained and equitable access to water for irrigation. Ensuring boost in water supply by rainwater harvesting, water level recharging by mandatory aquifers; Million Wells Recharge programme to be initiated targeted at private wells. To target increase in investment in irrigation sector under 11th five year plan.
• Productivity Growth: NCF said that with the objective of achieving higher productivity growth, it recommended substantial increase in public investment in agriculture-related infrastructure particularly in irrigation, drainage, land development, water conservation, research development and road connectivity etc. It also recommended a national network of advanced soil testing labs with an aim to test areas for apt micronutrient levels.
• Credit and Insurance: Expand outreach of formal credit system; reduce crop loan interest rates to 4%; provide moratorium on debt recovery; agricultural risk fund; kisan credit cards for women farmers; integrated credit-cum-crop-livestock human health insurance package; crop insurance across country for all crops with reduced premiums; sustainable livelihoods for the poor, investment in human development; institutional development services etc.
• Food Security: The commission recommended implementation of a universal public distribution system; reorganising delivery of nutrition support programmes on a life-cycle basis with panchayat participation and that of local bodies; elimination of micronutrient deficiency induced hunger and food cum fortification; community food and water banks to be operated by women self-help groups; help small and marginal farmers; formulate national food guarantee act with features as food for work and employment guarantee programmes.
• Prevention of Farmer Suicides: Providing affordable health insurance at primary healthcare centres in villages; national rural health mission to be extended to suicide hotspots on priority basis; state level farmers’ commissions with representatives of farmers, restructuring of micro finance policies that may serve as a sort of livelihood finance; covering all crops by crop insurance; village to be the assessor and not the block, social security net that gives old age support with health insurance and aquifer recharge and rain water conservation; plans for decentralised water usage etc.

The first right on all resources rests with poor, peasants & workers.

My View:
Even today, agriculture employs over 1.3 billion people throughout the world, or close to 40% of the global workforce. The ratio of farmers has declined from 35 to 4% in developed nations between 1950 and 2010, and from 81 to 48% in developing countries. In India, the workforce in agriculture was 76% in 1961. The number decreased to 51% in 2010. Still agriculture provides the bulk of employment in the rural areas. Post liberalization, cutbacks in agricultural subsidies increased the costs of inputs but market prices have not seen a corresponding increase. The rising of costs of production and the falling prices of farm commodities have transformed agriculture from a positive economy into a negative economy for peasants. Both these factors are rooted in the policies of trade liberalization and corporate globalization. Today they barely make enough to feed themselves. Over three lakh farmers have committed suicide since 1995, mostly in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh. Farmer suicides have largely been attributed to debt, drought, crop failure and poor returns. Debt is a reflection of a negative economy. Their main source of capital for farming remains loans. While bank's share is 60% only, most farmers depend on moneylenders, at exorbitant interest rates. Swaminathan commission recommended sweeping reforms and massive investments for viability of agriculture, successive governments makes promises for winning elections and forgets thereafter. Occasionally, they announce farm loan waivers as temporary relief but agriculture problems remains as they are and farmer suicides continue unabated, which is a national shame. During 2014 election campaigning, Modi made categorical promise to implement Swaminathan commission report with MSP of inputs cost plus 50% profit margin and doubling farmer's income in 5 years in real terms, with unforgettable rhetoric for garnering rural votes, and after getting the votes, he never bothered to do anything during the past three years and is following same style as Congress. His desperate attempt to win UP elections by announcing farmer loan waiver, much against BJP's stated policies, and after winning the scheme announced was scaled down to less than 25% is an outright atrocity on UP farmers and had ignited violent agitations in many states endangering national economy. In addition BJP's new "Anti slaughter rules" had destroyed dairying, along with beef export & leather industry, which is the second and last source of income for rural masses. Instead of alleviating farmer's woes, generating new jobs and improving economy, Modi successfully destroyed agriculture, dairying & rural economy and his acts of insanity resulted in loss of millions of jobs and millions of dollars of export income.

Rural revolt destroys Modi's 3rd year celebration plans

• Humongous plans for the third anniversary celebrations of the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government were announced in mid May. The 22 days celebrations were to be conducted from May 25 to June 15 by the BJP.
• These celebrations of the BJP-led NDA government will be centred around PM Modi, with a ‘Making of Developed India (MODI)’ festival as the highlight, as 450 leaders, including Union ministers, BJP chief ministers, MPs, MLAs and office-bearers spread across 900 cities and towns starting May 26 to educate the masses about its achievements since 2014. A control room is being set up in Delhi to monitor the programmes and visits of the BJP leaders between May 26 and June 15.
• The plans visualised Modi writing two crore letters and sending 10 crore SMS messages to common people, front-page advertisements in 400 newspapers across the country displaying Modi’s visuage and listing his government’s achievements, 30- and 60-second advertisements on television and radio on all the 22 days of the celebration period, and 300 multimedia exhibitions in various States.
• Booklets titled “Then and Now (UPA and NDA)”, to highlight how the country had marched ahead under Modi. The agriculture sector is given special focus in the booklets. 
• The government’s promotional programmes did not make any reference to its pre-election promises on the agricultural front and its failure to fulfill them. Instead it talked about the government’s ambitious rural development initiatives aimed at doubling farmers’ incomes in real terms by 2022 and uniting the fragmented markets to achieve the goal of “one nation, one market”.
• This self-aggrandizement project ran to the satisfaction of the various organizers for about a week, that is, until June 1, 2017, the day farmers’ organisations in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra started separate agitations demanding farm loan waiver and a hike in minimum support prices (MSP) in tune with the promise made by the BJP governments both at Centre and in the two States. 
• The BJP had promised during the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign that it would implement the recommendations of M.S. Swaminathan commission 2006 that suggested that the MSP should be above 50% profit margin on input cost.
• Barely a week after the commencement of the farmers’ agitations, the grandiose third anniversary celebration plans were in a shambles, thoroughly exposing the hollowness of the government’s claims, especially about enhancing the rural economy and boosting farmers’ interests. The eventful one week witnessed intensification of the agitations in the two big States, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, with farmers dumping milk and vegetables on roads and damaging vehicles, resisting attempts by the police and the security forces to quell them. The escalated violence resulted in the killing of six farmers in police firing in Madhya Pradesh.
• The responses from the BJP, including CM's Fadnavis and Chouhan  were to brand the agitations as politically motivated vandalism sponsored by the opposition Congress and NCP. They insisted that the farm sector was successful under the Modi regime and that the farmers’ agitations were entirely unwarranted. So much so that both the leaders either refused to initiate talks with farmers’ representatives for discussions. But none of these tactics succeeded. The developments since June 1, 2017 and the nationwide response, put them on the back foot. While Fadnavis announced a loan waiver for farmers with less than two hectares of land, Chouhan, after launching a dramatic indefinite fast to bring peace and calm down the agitating farmers, announced that purchasing farm produce at rates lower than the MSP would be treated as a crime.
• MP CM SS Chouhan should have been asked to step down for his failure to assess brewing discontentment among farmers and mismanaging the whole situation. The fact that compensation was increased from Rs.5 lakhs for each dead person increased to Rs.10 lakhs and then to Rs.1 crore indicates panicky management.
• There is no guarantee that the resentment in the two States and in the farm sector in the rest of the country will subside. Already, farmers in Haryana have launched an agitation demanding loan waiver. In Maharashtra leader of the Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (a BJP ally), has issued a warning that “If the promises are not kept, the agitation will resume with greater vigour.”
• In Madhya Pradesh there are signs of farmer organisations regrouping to launch a more concerted movement.
• The promises made by Fadnavis and Chouhan and the Union government had not adequately addressed the underlying factors that had forced farmers to take the path of agitation. These leaders have been dictated by political brinkmanship throughout, and this does not help in finding lasting solutions to farmers’ grievances. The current announcements fall in the same bracket.
• The demand for loan waiver came up in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra because Modi himself spearheaded this brinkmanship during the campaign for the UP Assembly elections promising loan waiver for farmers. Such was the rhetoric that Modi said the loan waiver would be the first decision of the new Cabinet. He also said the Union government would contribute towards the expenditure incurred by the loan waiver. The BJP was elected to power in the State and the new government, under Yogi Adityanath, was forced to live up to this rhetoric and announce loan waiver. It is this that triggered the current phase of farmers’ agitations in other States.
• In both the States, the agitation gathered strength not in areas where there was crop failure but in places where crops were abundant but farmers were denied remunerative prices.
• Madhya Pradesh farmers were aggrieved that the State government was propagating falsehoods about the farming sector. The Chouhan government had been claiming a 20 per cent growth in agriculture in the past five years. The government received the Krishi Karman award (excellence in agriculture) five years in a row for this.
• The BJP leadership have tried to underplay the role of the demonetization drive in creating agrarian distress while RBI stated how the demonetization drive and cash shortages have caused panic in the farm sector and suggested policy interventions may be envisaged to arrest the slump in prices.
• BJP's determined refusal or inability to address comprehensively issues pertaining to the farm sector and measures such as loan waiver might bring temporary relief to farmers, larger policy initiatives were required to bring lasting stability to the farm sector.
• The most important thrust of these initiatives and incentives should be to rescue the farming sector from the predations of the middlemen, money lenders, traders of spurious inputs, corporate sector and their interests. This predation has been marching on and on over the past two and a half decades. Governments after governments and political parties after political parties have asserted they understand the dynamics and perils of this predation, but at the level of policy and governance they have all played the facilitator role to the deprivations of these forces. 
• The question is whether any government will show the political will to take on this problem and thus protect the farmer and through that the country itself. As things stand now, there is not much hope for this fundamental course correction.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, 
it cannot save the few who are rich ... John F. Kennedy

My View:

While Modi talks about corruption, black money etc, these lavish celebrations would have costed over Rs.10,000 crores and the bills picked up by central & state PSUs, BJP and its crony businessmen, eventually burdening the common man. This sort of corruption is worse than receiving bribes as quid pro quo. Needless to say every BJP party activist associated with these celebrations will make few lakhs to few millions of rupees, across the nation. It is clear that BJP doesn't have any agenda for alleviating the problems of farmers and rural masses except some quick fix solution and publicizing them as achievements. Gandhi once said "India lives in its 600,000 villages, not just Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta & Madras." While Modi quotes Gandhi & Patel as convenient to him, he is really never bothered about villages and its economics dynamics. Among Indians 60% belongs to lower class & poorer sections, 30% middle class, and 10% upper & rich class. It is clear that Modi is concerned about middle & upper classes only except shedding some crocodile tears once in a while. Modi has wasted 3 years in celebrations, foreign jaunts and hollow publicity. Emulating Congress model of governance (excepting some name & color changes) Modi is sure to pay a bitter price in 2019 elections, similar to that of Vajpayee & Advani in 2004.

Read 'Rural Revolt' in Frontline July 7, 2017

Farm loan waiver is a necessity

• About 50% of the population is engaged on agriculture directly, which makes farmers the most influential group of voters. Though not occupationally organised, their votes matter a lot and being perceived as pro-farmer has historically been the necessary requirement for being a popular political force in the country & states.
• In Feb 1990, Madhu Dandavate, V P Singh’s Finance Minister in  NF government, announced a debt relief scheme for farmers covering waiving overdues or outstandings of farmers and artisans up to Rs 10,000, and involved a fiscal cost of Rs.10,000 crore.
• Soon after the Modi government took over, bankers and RBI had warned the Finance Ministry of the dangers of such write offs. There was little support then from Delhi for the huge loan waivers announced by the newly formed states of AP and Telangana. As the Modi government worked on its first Budget, bankers, led by SBI chief Arundhati Bhattacharya and RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, got together to stymie the proposal — finally forcing the state governments to settle for a rescheduling of the loans.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the first pitch at a UP elections 2017 political rally where he said, “I will make sure that the first cabinet decision after forming the government in Lucknow is to waive farmers’ loans. That pronouncement cast the die for UP, a state already struggling under a huge debt burden, writing off farm loans aggregating Rs 36,359 crore,  up to Rs 1 lakh for about 21.5 million small and marginal farmers.
• Urjit Patel, RBI Governor, has voiced concern publicly over the latest loan waiver — saying it engendered a moral hazard and undermined the honest credit culture. As a matter of policy, nationalized banks do not write-off loans. The states will have to repay them on behalf of the farmer.
• There does exist a distinction between farmers owning five acres of land and farmers owning land more than five acres. Such a distinction is not per se discriminatory. No one has a right to get a waiver of the loan availed by him. 
• Hardly 30% of the farmers access institutional credit. A large section of those who access credit from banks are large farmers. Most small and marginal farmers took private loans as the process of obtaining institutional credit was cumbersome. 
• The UP Govt wants to finance this waiver by issuing state backed farmers relief bonds issued by a state organisation, which the govt repays at a later date. Such a large waiver scheme would negatively affect the state budget deficit levels, endangers its credibility and makes it tougher to obtain loans in the future. But Govt bonds are not debts in the state budget and do not affect the fiscal deficit significantly. At present, UP’s estimated fiscal deficit is Rs 41,400 crores.
• Development economists feel farm loan waivers are short-term measures, but are nevertheless necessary in times of severe drought or floods. However, they said that there was a deeper systemic problem that has pushed farmers strongly into the debt cycle.
• The price for farm produce has stagnated over the years. On the other hand, cost of agricultural inputs have soared. This has drastically pushed up the cost of production. For example, after decontrolling fertilizers in 2010, the cost of a few fertilizers have gone up over 1400%. Whereas the Minimum Support Price for paddy has gone up a mere Rs 470 or 68% in the same period. Unless the government reduces cost of production and increases agriculture profit, farmers will remain caught in the debt cycle and the cycle of farm loan waivers would be inevitable.
• The waiver of farm loans was not wrong in a situation where a debt-ridden farmer is debilitated by climatic conditions. The writing off farm loans adversely affecting the fiscal situation in states is small compared to subsidies doled out by govt for the corporate sector which is not seen as a burden.

What ever can go wrong, has gone wrong with rural India.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, 
it cannot save the few who are rich ... John F. Kennedy

Government's view of the economy in a few short phrases: 
If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. 
And if it stops moving, subsidize it ... Ronald Reagan

My View:

Today in India farm holdings are largely fragmented with 90% farmers owning or cultivating less than 5 acres. The anti farmer government policies on fertilizers & support prices, bankers reluctance to lend aggressively to farmers, rampant adulteration of seeds & pesticides, labour issues arising out of MNREGS, erratic irrigation & agriculture power supply, climatic uncertainties and menace of middlemen in procurement of farm produce have resulted in once profitable agriculture activity into a non-remunerative activity. Improper storage facilities, badly implemented crop insurance schemes are bane to farmers. Lacking skills & capital, farmers are  trapped in agriculture permanently, irrespective of viability. Most government promises are just eyewash and at times of crisis farmers are silently left to their fate compelling suicides. In 1980's & 90's farmers availing crop loans were rare just below 10% and today they are over 90%. With reduced incomes and higher interest burden (70% credit is private credit at higher rates) farmers making both ends meet has become an impossibility. 

Farming is livelihood for vast majority of lower classes, less educated, less skilled people of India (who are hitherto not employable in formal sector) and present policies are farming destructive. For a populous country like India, self sufficiency in food grains is a must. India is just self sufficient in food grains only because 40% of its population who are poor are surviving on just one square meal a day. If all rural people drops their non remunerative avocation and migrates to urban areas in search of livelihood it will be catastrophic for nation to face acute food shortage and its weak urban infrastructure will simply breakdown.

In order to ensure decent livelihood for farmers and at the same time ensuring cheap and affordable food to all spectrum of poor people of country and in the absence of reliable inputs, crop insurance and marketing systems etc it is imperative to provide at least 60% of entire crop expenses as subsidy, 40% paid at the beginning of season and final 20% after verification of before harvesting as direct credit into their bank accounts. This subsidy can be rationalized as reliable systems develop and come into operation. This is not to save or enrich farmers but to stay put farmers in non remunerative agriculture and averting the nation from food crisis. 

Until then periodic farm loan waiver schemes is a necessity and inescapable, no matter what our insensitive economic pundits from air-conditioned ivory towers say.

Modi, the Prime Minister of Gujarat & UP

Centre announced waiver of farmer loans in UP in fulfillment of Modi's election promise in the just concluded UP Assembly election winning with huge majority, at an expense of Rs.50,000 crores. BJP is still unable to finalize CM candidate and new government yet to be formed and union agriculture minster announced in parliament that central government will pick up the bill. While helping distressed farmers is appreciable the same would have been for all farmers in the country, not just UP.

• This is in contradiction of Centre's outright rejecting the demand of AP & Telangana government's request, 3 year ago, for RBI & Banks assistance in rescheduling the loans and eventual waiver by state governments citing banking norms and credit discipline.
• Farmers are in distress and debt ridden in the entire country, not just in UP. This Centre's loan waiver for UP only is grossly discriminatory.
• Going forward, farmers will never pay back loans, even if they can, awaiting waiver in next elections within 5 years.
• This will destroy public sector banks, which are already saddled with over Rs. 6 lakh crores NPAs mainly due to defaults by industrialists.
• Just 3 days ago, SBI Chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya said such sops may disrupt credit discipline among borrowers.

Apart from plethora of issues being faced by farmers, the foremost & utmost is the MSP (Minimum Support Price) of Centre which doesn't even cover expenses where as logically MSP should cover all expenses plus 50% profit margin for decent farmer livelihood. Lower MSP enables produce buyers to buy below MSP prices pushing weak farmers into distress and debt ridden. Mechanism must ensure that farmer is enabled to sell his produce at above MSP, which was forgotten several years ago. Other problems are non-timely availability of fertilizers and substandard seeds, pesticides, non availability of labour due to MNREGA, storage facilities etc. Erratic rains compounds farmers risk. Crop insurance with easy process of claims is a must.

Crop loan waiver has a major devastating effect of non availability of bank credit in future with fear of non-recovery and farmer will slip into hands of ruthless money lenders with interest rates 4-6 times bank rates. Today only 25% farmers (who are owners of land only) gets bank credit for crops and it must be ensured all farmers whether land owner or not must get crop loan if he is genuinely cultivating. Unless all these issues are resolved within short time frame, farmers will continue to be in distress and nation's future food security comes under threat. And uncontrolled rural to urban migration will not only increase rural distress but also stresses weak urban infrastructure.  

The practice of attending farmers issues once in 5 years during election and forgetting them thereafter must be stopped. It must be on year to year basis at budget time and uniform for all farmers of the country.

My View:

Farm loan waiver and rural focus are policies of Congress, never of BJP. Now I see BJP shifting towards rural issues and copying Congress. Anyway, 70% of population are rural & agriculture based and can't be ignored by rulers. All constitutional office bearers must remember that they are oath & constitution bound, not their election promises which are often senseless and mindless.

Modi, Jaitley & RBI have forgotten all the rules, regulations & principles cited while rejecting cooperation to AP & Telangana for farmer loan rescheduling & eventual waiver by state governments where as now centre waiving UP farmer loans without even being asked by UP Government is height of their arrogance & stupidity and doesn't go well with preservation of unity & integrity of India. Centre's discriminating attitude between states ruled by BJP and non-BJP will ignite north-south divide apart from being unconstitutional, illegal and violation of oath. Shamelessness & arrogance at its peak with Modi reducing himself as Prime Minister of Gujarat & UP.

14th finance commission has not made any provision for this type of money transfer from centre to UP and Budget 2017 has no mention about this item at all. How will this be done? When centre could do UP farmer loan waiver without budget & 14th Finance commission provision, why cant it grant special status to AP as promised while passing AP Reorganization Bill in Parliament in 2014? Any answer from Modi, Jaitley, Venkaiah Naidu etc? They won't answer because they are answerable to none.

PS: Unless rules are modified restricting spending money strictly as per provisions of approved budget and discretionary spending money is restricted only during war & natural calamity times by executive orders, irresponsible and unmonitored spending through banks and PSU's will go un-audited by CAG and unnoticed by parliament and is detrimental to fiscal discipline.

Modi's failures

Modi ascended to power in 2014 riding on the tsunami of anti-incumbency of scam ridden Congress led UPA. While Modi is still drawing huge crowds abroad with his charisma and is darling of upper middle classes which are in complete disconnect with lower classes, peasants & rural population is a colossal failure in India during the past two and half years, despite favorable crude oil prices at less than one third of its peak prices. Their argument that "those who governed us for 60 years should not ask for an appraisal in merely 24 months" is untenable.


Here is the list of failures:

1. Industry stagnating and exports are falling consistently.
2. Inflation especially food inflation is rising.
3. Job creation dismal. Textiles, leather, metals, automobiles, gems and jewellery, transport, information technology and the handloom sectors together created just 135,000 jobs during 2015, 67 per cent lower than 421,000 jobs that were added in 2014, the last year of the Manmohan Singh government.
4. Make in India remains a slogan only.
5. Bringing back black money in Swiss banks etc in 100 days remains a shallow promise.
6. PSU Bank's NPA doubled from Rs.2.86 to Rs.5.71 lakh crores in the past one year, due to default by corporate's close to ruling BJP. Improving liquidity or recapitalization needed urgently for banks remain operational.
7. Despite crude oil prices falling by 70% from its peak prices, consumer sale prices were reduced by just 15%. GOI retained 85% advantage to itself by increasing excise duty etc.
8. Riding on the wave of low oil prices, Modi government hasn't made any meaningful impact on Indian economy so far.
9. The BJP had promised to increase the Minimum Support Price (MSP) at the rate of cost of production along with 50 per cent profit. Agricultural sector is in distress with  no hike in Minimum Support Price (MSP) for farmers.
10. The biggest failure, however, is the mishandling of the agriculture and drought situation across the country and the continuing neglect of agriculture. While Modi promises to double agricultural incomes, it is yet to be seen how he will achieve that target. Agricultural growth rate has fallen from about an average of 3.7 per cent per year under UPA to just about one per cent in Modi's tenure.
11. The drought situation was totally neglected. The drought manuals and rules by the government itself said that water trains and tankers are to be pressed into service as last resort and number of steps ought to have been taken before reaching that step which the government at the centre and state missed. Lack of seriousness by the government of India in assessing and mitigating the drought situation and crisis worsened afflicting nearly 33 crore Indians across several states. Drought is, perhaps, the only natural calamity one can plan against in advance, unlike floods and earthquakes. National Disaster Management Authority manual on management of drought speaks of "drought mitigation" as part of public policy and not just drought relief but this was clearly lost on the Modi government.
12. All schemes are being renamed and repacked with reduced central contributions passing on the burden on states. They are unable to conceive any new sensible scheme so far on their own.
13. Cross border firings and ceasefire violations in Jammu & Kashmir are at a high.
14. Modi's Pakistan policy and his foreign policy is defective. It has been driven by style over substance, adventurism over analysis; by self projection, vanity and petty domestic political calculations over larger interests. The ministry of external affairs has been more like a tour operator or logistics handler, and not a source of policy and executive inputs. Modi's relentless foreign travel remained pleasure trips burdening exchequer.
15. Income Declaration Scheme (IDS) remained a big failure, despite tough talk.
16. Demonetization of big notes of Nov 8, 2016, except for its secrecy in unveiling failed to achieve any of its stated objectives viz. black money, fake money, terrorist financing & corruption except causing disruption to civic life in all segments especially informal economy, agriculture and rural economy apart from causing innumerable difficulties for common man for exchanging old notes or withdrawing their own cash from banks. About 70 people died standing in bank/ATM queues and 15 bank employees died due stress and long work hours continuously. Manmohan Singh had rightly remarked that "I do not disagree with the objectives but the process of demonetization is monumental mismanagement and is a case of organised loot and legalized plunder of the common people".
17. Failed to recover Rs.8,000 crores lent to King Fischer Vijay Mallya who has absconded and banks have just written off as bad loans.
18. GST bill still incomplete.
19. Swachh Bharat, Yoga, LPG subsidy give up & Cashless transaction campaigns, even though good, doesn't deserve that much high decibel campaigns.
20. Smart Cities & Digital India projects are yet to take off from the ground despite announcements a year ago.
21. Has not fulfilled many of the AP Reorganization Act 2014 commitments or BJP promises of 2014 election campaigns to Andhra Pradesh. Whatever little has been done was with delay of two years reducing its impact and results.
22. Diverting lot of money for his pet project Ahmedabad - Mumbai bullet train which serves only rich & upper middle classes with ticket price of Rs.3,000.
23. Many agreements and concessions for enriching richer people but nothing for poor or rural population.
24. Modi and his Cabinet colleagues foreign trips cost the exchequer Rs.567 crore during 2015-16, an increase of more than 80% from the previous year Rs 269 crore. This is besides the over Rs.500 crore spent by his bureaucrats on their foreign travel.
25. Reliance has resorted to stealing gas from ONGC gas fields during 2009-11 to the tune of Rs.12,000 crores. Against the consultant recommended claim of ONGC for Rs.30,000 crores Modi passed orders on Reliance to pay up Rs.10,000 crores recently. This was contested in courts by Reliance.
26. Recollect BJP's political failed adventures in Uttarakhand and Arunchal Pradesh to usurp power leading to a suicide by an innocent Ex-CM in Arunachal Pradesh. It was rumored that BJP spent Rs.15 crore per MLA crossing in intense horse-trading.
27. NDA and all state governments are spending lots of money on advertisement campaigns while doing very little on the ground.
28. While Assam's BJP win can't be termed as endorsement of Modi's government, Delhi & Bihar's defeat is a clear rejection for Modi. In all the five states that went to the polls recently, BJP dropped its vote share since 2014, and minus Assam. Even the Congress party scored nearly twice as many Assembly segments compared to the BJP. The Modi tsunami is now withdrawing back to the sea and those who revelled when it hit the coast are now in a real danger of being drowned by it.
29. Artificial JNU controversy on nationalism is another black spot on Modi.
30. Modi government seemed more keen on confrontation than conciliation in order to get tricky legislation's passed. Consequently, very little has actually got done on the development and economic front.

The reason for the victory of Narendra Modi was the tremendous support he got from first-time young voters and floating voters who saw him as the best alternative then may very well change their opinion come 2019 and that is the nature of a fence sitter who isn't ideologically wedded to what the BJP represents.

Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel but in the case of Modi's government, pseudo-patriotism is the last resort of the incompetent.

My View:

The last two years, if seen in totality, offer very little for the Modi government to gloat about. Modi government harping on the past that Congress hasn't done anything is futile. While Congress was certainly bad, they never meddled with the lives & livelihood of poor & peasants. In the absence of strengthening Lok Pal & RTI bringing Politicians, Bureaucrats, Judiciary & Businessmen under its purview, granting autonomy and teeth to CBI, CVC  & ACB etc and no steps to enforce transparency & accountability, Modi's talk about elimination of corruption & black money etc is shallow and is a mere lip service. Modi should do something for the nation with sincerity of purpose evident rather than blaming Congress for all the ills of nation even after two and half years of ascending to power. It sounds nice only during first quarter and second quarter but sounds awkward in the 10th quarter. Above all, Modi government in collision course with Supreme Court regarding judges appointment matters for prolonged periods of over an year doesn't august well irrespective of merits.