No amount of forex reserves is ever adequate

In April 2018, India's foreign exchange reserves had hit a life-time high of $425 billion. Things have changed since then. The forex reserves have been falling by about $2 billion a week for seven weeks and present balance is under $400 billion. But government maintain that there's no reason to panic. Falling reserves are a result of RBI's intervention to arrest the slide of the rupee, which has depreciated around 8% in this year (16% in the past 2 years). On Aug 17, 2018 USD/INR touched 70-mark and analysts predict it may touch even 80. Widening trade deficit, sluggish export growth could put further pressure on the country’s forex reserves. 

• Our CAD worsened from $15 billion in 2016-17 to $49 billion in 2017-18. Higher oil prices were only partly to blame. Exports struggled, while we guzzled smartphones and gold. Our FDI/FII flows flipped from an inflow of $21 billion in FY17 to an outflow of $19 billion in FY18.
• The Centre’s response to the rupee weakness was nonchalant. RBI was mum and FM tweets that India’s FE reserves are comfortable, going by global standards and sufficient to mitigate any undue volatility in the FE market.
• Although India's FE reserves are better than many emerging economies, we should remember that no amount of forex reserves is ever adequate and it might not be right to feel complacent about the country’s FE reserves.
• Given that the country’s widening trade deficit, sluggish export growth and growing imports — our FE reserves are likely to be under pressure in the coming quarters. It is therefore better to acknowledge the challenges and think about corrective actions, rather than be in denial.
• After the 2013 crisis, the RBI has been careful about building its forex reserves. Reserves had increased from $275 billion in Sep 2013 to the life-time high of $426 billion in April 2018. Apart from low oil prices & higher NRI remittances, strong inflows from FII's/FPI's and FDI's helped to a large extent in shoring up reserves.
• But this support is likely to be withdrawn in the coming quarters.
• FDIs had been robust in the first two years of NDA rule, growing at 25% and 23% in FY15 and FY16 as PM Modi reached out to overseas investors to fund the country’s growth. But the momentum has slowed down since then with the FDI inflows growing 8% in FY17 and at an even slower pace of 3% in FY18.
• FII's have withdrawn ₹15,771 crore from the equity market for far in FY19 while the outflows from debt segment has been ₹35,449 crore. (In FY18, there were inflows of ₹1,44,682 crore in equity and debt markets).
• In addition between April and June 2018, RBI sold off $14 billion to stave off depreciating rupee. It is therefore not surprising that the reserves are down 10% their peak level recorded in April 2018.
• The Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet since Oct 2017. This is reducing liquidity in global markets, the rate hikes from the Fed are making the cost of financing expensive. It is therefore not surprising that global investors are reducing their investments in emerging markets including India.
• The IMF estimates that the Fed’s tightening can result in reducing flows into emerging markets by $35 billion a year. The world is moving from a period of easy money to one were liquidity becomes tighter and funds become more expensive.
• With Federal Reserve and Bank of England hiking interest rates, the cost of refinancing the loans will become difficult, leading to repayment of some of these loans, causing forex outgo.

There are no easy fixes to this problem. The measures taken to improve the ease of doing business and GST are likely to improve FDI flows in the long term. The government needs to renew the efforts to boost exports, reduce dependence on imports in order to ensure a sustained improvement in the country’s reserves.

Read the source article

Rupee is expected to remain under pressure in the near future due to rising oil prices, global trade wars, tightening of global liquidity and a strong dollar. When USD/INR touched 70, Union Minister Arun Jaitley said that India’s foreign exchange reserves are comfortable by global standards and sufficient to mitigate any undue volatility in the foreign exchange market. He is only monitoring and reassuring but not indicating any corrective steps. By not improving our exports and reduce dependence on imports, during the past 4 years of low oil price regime, we have squandered away the opportunity to consolidate our economy. Now we can only look eastwards and pray God to help us.

The 1908 Hyderabad flood

The OU Women’s College, during Musi floods of September 28, 1908

Around 110 years ago on September 26, 1908, it began to rain in the surrounding areas of Hyderabad as a result of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. Over the next 48 hours, the downpour continued in the Musi river basin logging 98.57 cm rainfall. Of the 788 tanks and lakes in the river basin, 221 breached due to the cloudburst. At 11 a.m. on September 28, an estimated 4,25,000 cusecs of water raced through the city swirling and sweeping away over 19,000 homes, and killing about 15,000 people.

Read the source article

SC Judges press conference - Reactions

Four senior Supreme Court (SC) judges today called an unprecedented press conference on Jan 11, 2018 acknowledged that what they were doing - in speaking to the media - was highly unusual. "This is an extraordinary event and it is with no pleasure we are doing this...We are left with no choice but to address the nation," said Justice Chelameswar. 

Here are the reactions of eminent people have to say about that: 

• It is appalling. How can you administer Supreme Court by press conference. Are you going to hold a referendum and ask people what is right and wrong  ... Justice R.S. Sodhi
• This trade unionism is wrong. Democracy in danger is not for them to say, we have parliament, courts, police functioning. Issues don't matter. It is their complaint on administrative matter. They are only 4, there are 23 others. 4 get together and show the Chief Justice in a poor light. It is immature and childish behavior. I think all 4 judges should be Supreme Court judges' should be impeached, they have no business to sit there and deliver verdicts anymore ... Justice R.S. Sodhi
• The judiciary is the sanctuary of the common man. This kind of a situation will trigger doubts about the institution and this should not have happened ... Former CJI K G Balakrishnan
• This is a black day for the judiciary. Today's press conference would cause a bad precedent. From now on every common man could look at all judicial order with suspicion. Every judgement will be questioned ... Ujjwal Nikam, senior lawyer
• Even our editorial view was that it is one of the stupidest shots fired, because it was not going to go anywhere ... Sekhar Gupta, NDTV
• I have never come across something so demeaning as this. There are certain things that can’t be done. You either wait till the chief justice retires or you go away, that is all. These four judges erred in going public. We are not concerned with their frustration. We are concerned with the Supreme Court. We are concerned with the institution. Of the roster, he is the master. The five (collegium) are important only for one reason. All judges should be treated the same. CJI became a leader because of the constitutional convention that the senior-most judge should become chief justice. If you want to impeach a judge, impeach him on proper grounds. You have to shoot to kill. If you shoot to hurt it will not hurt a man or woman but the institution ... FS Nariman Eminent jurist and senior advocate
• I’m very upset about this, I wish the four Supreme Court judges hadn’t done this. This will have severe repercussions on judiciary ... Soli Sorabjee, former Attorney-General of India
• I feel very sad about it. I am sure they (the four judges) are hurt with many things which ought not to have happened. But for heaven’s sake, what they did was wrong. I don’t think this damage can ever be repaired ... N Santosh Hegde, former Solicitor General
• The following SC Bench passed judgement on him saying “We are of the unanimous opinion that Justice C S Karnan has committed contempt of this court, of the judiciary and also the judicial process.” SC Bench Inlcuded: CJI Khehar, Justice P C Ghose, Justice Dipak Misra, Justice J Chelameswar, Justice Ranjan Gogoi, Justice M B Lokur, Justice Kurian Joseph. Sanctity of SC of India was very well protected by the Hon. Judges in this case. But it does not seem to protect it in the case of this press conference  ... An observer in social media
• Justice Arun Mishra of the Supreme Court, who was allegedly targeted after the controversial press conference by four senior most judges, took serious exception to the tarnishing of his image. At the customary morning tea meeting where the press conference came up for discussion, Justice Arun Mishra expressed his strong views against the developments. Justice Arun Mishra in an emotional outburst said, “The only thing I have earned in my life is reputation and you have tried to attack it... How do you propose to give it back to me? You should have killed me with a bullet rather than attacking my reputation.”
• This is a small court… we are small people... junior judge. Are you sure you want us to hear your case? ...  Justice Arun Mishra asked a lawyer while hearing a case
• Why is so much crowd here? I am a junior judge. Why don't people go to some senior judges' court? ...  Justice Arun Mishra, asked some advocates in Court No. 10
• We can't criticize them, they are men of great integrity and have sacrificed a lot of their legal career, where they could've made money as senior counsels. We must respect them. The PM must ensure that the 4 judges and the CJI, in fact, the whole SC come to one opinion and proceed further ... Subramanian Swamy, BJP MP
• Deeply sad and pained, also feel a sense of agony that the highest court of the land should come under such severe stress that forces judges to address the media ... Salman Khurshid, senior advocate and Congress leader
• It is certainly a very serious development which has cast a huge shadow on the Chief Justice. Somebody had to confront the situation, where CJI is blatantly misusing his powers, hence the unprecedented step (by the 4 judges) ... Prashant Bhushan, lawyer and politician
• I am sure they (four judges) have exhausted all other remedies. One could see pain on their faces while they were speaking. The whole matter is with respect to judicial propriety. The question is of natural justice. Whatever is the law for common man, it is applied much more rigorously as far as judges are concerned because they must always be above suspicion ... KTS Tulsi, Senior lawyer 
• I Feel very disturbed over the issue. This should not have happened, but it has and there might be strong reasons for them. Consequence would be it would create apprehensions in the minds of the people ... AK Ganguly, retired judge
• I think it's a historic Press Conference. It was very well done. I think we, the people of India, have a right to know what is going on within the judiciary and I welcome this ... Indira Jaising, Supreme Court advocate
• Absolutely unprecedented, the press conference of the four senior judges of supreme court. Most important take away ‘when national interest is at stake ordinary rules of business do not apply' ...  Yashwant Sinha, BJP leader 

Ever since independence, democracy was constantly in danger in India. Judges appointment was neither based on any merit nor transparent. Earlier it was 'to become judge you should know the law minister' and these days it is 'to become judge you should know collegium member'. Delhi HC retired judge RS Sodhi rightly said, "I think all four judges should be impeached. They have no business to sit there and deliver verdicts anymore. This trade unionism is wrong. Democracy in danger is not for them to say. We have parliament, courts, police functioning". It is sad to note that our learned top 4 SC Judges did the right thing in a wrong way! They proved themselves unworthy of the positions they are holding. If they were serious about what they were talking, they should have simply resigned and then did what ever they wanted to do. The actions of these 4 SC Judges were applauded by Media and common citizens but almost all legal fraternity admonished this.

Imran Khan inherits bankrupt Pakistan

Pakistan is grappling with a big economic crisis. The State Bank of Pakistan has only about $10 billion of foreign exchange reserves, enough to fund two months imports. Pakistan runs a serious risk of defaulting on its payments. The situation poses a challenge to Pakistan’s prime minister-elect Imran Khan who will be sworn in today, August 18, 2018. 

• Pakistan's current account deficit has grown four times in just two years. It touched $18 billion in FY18, up 42.5% over the previous fiscal year. Two years ago, it was at $4.876 billion, rising to $12.621 billion the following year. 
• The import bill ballooned mainly due to higher oil prices and imports from China which is building several infrastructure projects in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor programme. 
• There was a marginal increase in exports which are mainly textiles. Pakistan has devalued its rupee four times since December with an aim to make its exports cheaper. 
• The previous Nawaz Sharif government failed to take advantage of low oil prices to build foreign reserves. Corrupt regimes, faulty economic policies and low tax revenues have brought Pakistani economy to the brink. 
• But the only option visible to Pakistan is to go for IMF loan. Pakistan has borrowed from IMF several times since 1980. Though the total financing gap for the current fiscal is at around $12 billion, Pakistan may not get more than $9 billion from IMF according to its maximum quota. For the IMF bailout, it needs support of several countries, including the US which has warned the IMF against helping Pakistan as the country could use the IMF money to repay its China debt.
• Even if IMF extends help to Pakistan, it will come with conditions like devaluation of the currency, disinvestment in loss-making PSUs, hiking electricity rates and cutting agricultural subsidies which will jeopardise Imran Khan's new government as well as hit economic growth. 
• Imran Khan has announced that he would run an "Islamic welfare state" hinting at higher public spending. So far, IMF has not made any promise to bail out Pakistan, nor has Pakistan asked for a bailout.
• Pakistan can also seek Saudi Arabia's help, which can only defer oil payments. 
• Pakistan can borrow from its all-weather friend China which would mean a higher debt burden. Chinese debt is already a worry for Pakistan. China has lent Pakistan $1 billion in June and total lending to Pakistan in this fiscal year exceeded $5 billion. 

The new Imran Khan government faces a tough task of turning around the economy. Khan needs to bring in economic reforms, restrict government spending and imports, try to increase tax revenues and increase exports. 

Read the source article

In April 2018, India's foreign exchange reserves had hit a life-time high of $425 billion. Things have changed since then. The forex reserves have been falling by about $2 billion a week for seven weeks and present balance is under $400 billion. But government maintain that there's no reason to panic. Falling reserves are a result of RBI's intervention to arrest the slide of the rupee, which has depreciated around 8% in this year (16% in the past 2 years). Rupee slide against USD is the worst among the Asian currencies. No amount of reserves is ever adequate. China's reserves also fell by $14 billion in one month to $3,111 billion. Rupee is expected to remain under pressure in the near future due to rising oil prices, global trade wars, tightening of global liquidity and a strong dollar. On Aug 17, 2018 USD/INR touched 70-mark and likely to touch the 72-mark soon. 

Why NDA lost in 2004?

The Congress-UPA has just won 26.7% of popular vote people's mandate while BJP-NDA has won 22.16% only. Congress became the most voted party in this elections with a vote share that was 5% more than BJP. While UPA won 145 seats (gain of 31 seats), NDA won only 138 seats(loss of 44 seats). Although it is not a clear victory for Congress-UPA, it is a clear defeat for BJP-NDA. Here are the core reasons for the BJP-NDA's defeat. 

• NDA projected the election as the battle between Vajapayee and Sonia, and Sonia won and Vajapayee lost.
• NDA fell because of their own weight, own sins and Vajpayee's visionless leadership. 
• Old men are supposed to lose their marbles and AB Vajpayee seems to have lost the same. 
• Media singing songs of Vajpayee's greatness harmed NDA. 
• The media created a hype that Vajpayee is the greatest Indian leader, who could do no wrong and people didn't find any substance in that.
• NDA created an illusion that Vajpayee is the greatest PM, but people of India saw this old man, who never said a word or gave any opinion on any issue and remained silent through out his prime ministership and never took any crucial decision or reigned any of his colleague or Parivar people.
• People saw Vajpayee was old, forgetful and incompetent to solve India's problems while in Sonia Gandhi they saw a fresh face with purpose.
• The middle-class lost their hard-earned money in the UTI scandal.
• Large rural population's welfare has been over looked. 
• Unemployment and anti-poor stance. 
• Over-indulgence on trivial Hindutva issue.
• NDA reduced interest rates and impacted the voters honest savings. 
• The Tehelka reporters who exposed corruption were harassed.
• Concentrating to impress world nations and criminal negligence of the people's problems.
• Inaction on Gujarat CM Modi for not catching either Godhra train massacre culprits or Gujarat communal riots culprits that killed 2000 Muslims.
• After the horrendous massacre, Muslims were expecting that the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi will be put to trial, but instead he was awarded 127/182 seats (2/3rd majority) in mid term polls immediately after the riots with a gain of 10 seats.
• Gross miscalculation of NDA and their misreading of the 'pulse ' of the people.
• Impressive orations, debates and arguments like in court rooms than performance.
• BJP went overboard with the “India Shining” campaign which offended the rural & urban poor. Sonia Gandhi used the opportunity to mock at this campaign by pointing out India’s poverty.
• Anti-incumbancy factor.
• NDA allies too fared very badly - TDP(5/42) in AP & AIADMK(0/39) in Tamilnadu suffered humiliating defeats.
• BJP criticised congress and Sukhram.  Congress expelled Sukhram and in the next election Sukhram becomes an ally of BJP. BJP ought to be more ethical.
• Never in the history India witnessed such a low level malicious campaign by the ruling party. 
• BJP belived that insulting people is Hindu dharma, that's the price they have paid for. That's one of the main aspects in BJP debacle.
• BJPs failure to control Modi and his uncultured tirade against Sonia Gandhi.
• The consistent "Sonia Bashing" by BJP and it's top leaders, the larger than real life images and speeches by the so called second rung leaders of BJP ... Mahajan, Jaitley etc. and Rabble-rousing by Katyar, Modi, Uma bharati etc. have all had negative effects.
• Over-usage of the tasteless word "pseudo-secularism". It was flogged to death. Watching the arrogant BJP men debating on TV in the last two years.
• Corruption as exposed by Tehelka, Petrol-pump, coffin-gate by George Fernandes, etc. had its effect.
• Towards the end of this campaign, the BJP even openly begged Muslims for votes, thereby upsetting lakhs of its conventional supporters.

Elections 2004: BJP pays heavy price for arrogance, haste and strategic blunders

India Today | May 24, 2004 | Prabhu Chawla 

It has become fashion to interpret defeats with figures and statistics. It is very easy to come up with statistics and 'spin' the results any way you want but the reality is that the voting population preferred the Congress and their allies much more to the BJP and its allies. If anyone feels that it was not a mandate for Congress since they did not get majority of votes, it is just a joke. It might have been local issues that have brought the Congress to power and the people had no clue that they were sending Vajpayee packing who never deserved such a drubbing. Indian mentality will not allow appreciate a sacrifice and we always attribute some ulterior motive to every one. Even Mahatma Gandhi had serious critics at his time. No one wants to acknowledge Sonia Gandhi's sacrifice. If Sonia Gandhi wanted to become prime minister, nobody could have stopped her even if it was for one month and go down in history. If any one tries to find out for reasons why BJP should have won in 2004, he would have been amused with none. Vajpayee's inaction against Modi-Gujarat riots and ignoring poor and peasants are the primary causes for NDA's debacle in 2004. Today in 2018 similar situations are prevailing that is causing jitters among BJP, Modi & co., who are clueless how to come overcome this mess they created for themselves.

Improve your marriage

Every marriage has its ups and downs. Conflict is a normal, even healthy, part of any relationship. What’s important is how you handle it. The rules for marriage are simple. No sudden moves, don’t crowd the other person, and keep all disastrous thoughts to yourself. Misery is the secret of happiness in marriage. Go make yourself miserable, and then come home. 

• Positive thinking can transform your life and your marriage immediately. Having a positive attitude can take practice, but the contagiousness of positivity can save your marriage.
• Positive thinking can reduce stress levels and may increase lifespan, improve cardiovascular health, lower depression levels, and even cut down on the common cold. 
• It’s basically impossible to be positive 100% of the time. But being mindful of your attitude is the key to making positivity an outlook you can attempt on the hardest of days.
• Showing gratitude and appreciating spouse is a great way to truly see all the things that they do for you. 
• The happier you feel, the happier your relationship will be, and the easier it will be to manage conflicts.
• Few people know your spouse as well as you do, so he or she will undoubtedly appreciate the power of your full attention. 
• Stopping to listen to your partner is a luxury you don’t have. Before you speak, take a minute to listen and empathize. Stop and listen to what your partner is saying. Showing empathy can improve communication.
• Steer clear of criticism, confrontation and hostility. Avoid verbalising critical thoughts, keep discussions from escalating, and don’t use absolutes. If a fight does start, try to change the subject, inject gentle humor, empathize or show your partner extra appreciation. Walk away and cool off for a while.
• If you find yourself in the middle of a heated argument, take 10 minutes to calm down and reconvene when the stress has left the room. Go for a walk, listen to a couple of your favorite songs, or agree to take a break together to put your disagreement aside. When you’ve both relaxed, you’ll be able to come back at your discussion with a fresh perspective.
• It’s tempting to blame your partner when you feel angry, disappointed, bored, betrayed or stressed out about your relationship. The next wrong step is expecting your mate as the one who must change for the relationship to improve. Change yourself. When you address your own flaws and seek the best in your companion, magic happens. Optimism increases. And you both feel motivated to change in ways that lead to even more joy.
• We get caught up in the daily chores and we feel like we don’t have time to have hobbies. May be you have hobbies, but they don’t involve your spouse. Put an activity on the calendar you can both look forward to. There are countless hobbies or vacation that you can start together that take very little time or money, but can strengthen your marriage considerably. 
• If you haven’t had a vacation in a very long time, plan a trip - even a one-night getaway counts. The much-needed time away from home can be refreshing and rejuvenating. 
• Here are little ways to make your spouse feel loved. Sit down and reminisce the photo albums of some of your favorite moments together. Revisiting some of your old wonderful experience to share and will bring about new memories for your long, happy future together.
• Be sure that compliments and thank yous are heartfelt and specific, and make eye contact when you smile. Speak less and listen more.

The couple that plays together stays together.

Marriage is not a contest; Never keep score.
In marriages, there are neither guarantees nor rules.

Adultery and its consequences

Adultery is one of the worst things that can happen to a marriage and demolishes everything you’ve built with your partner in such a personal way. Infidelity can feel like a death of trust, the death of affection, the death of all the work you’ve done in your marriage. The fatal blow to any marriage is an adulterous affair where one or both spouses think they finally found their soul mate. Once convinced that he or she married the wrong person, the idea of divorce can take root and grow. Blinded by the deception of the affair, most people have no idea how they got there, and don’t know how to get out. There’s no doubt that adultery affects marriages in the worst way. 

• Cheating is one of the easiest ways to damage a relationship. It shatters trust.
• Guilt and shame are big components of adultery for both who cheat and for the wounded spouse.
• When infidelity is discovered in a marriage, it is a black mark, embarrassment and shame for the cheating spouse and even  more for the wounded spouse.
• The wounded spouse wants to shrink, wants to hide and indeed feels as if he or she is tainted. The persistent negative thoughts can make life constricted.
• A fatal consequence of adultery is broken trust and loss of intimacy. An entangled affair is always the result of an intimacy deficit in the marital relationship. 
• Part of the lure of the affair for an unfaithful spouse was the opportunity to be himself or herself. They desperately needed that freedom to be themselves, to be accepted and appreciated. 
• Cheating may not always end in divorce but it can have a devastating impact. About 60% of men and 40% has extramarital affair at some point during their married life. The depth of betrayal and emotional pain that often leads to divorce after infidelity. 
• Negative emotions are hard to put behind but will eventually fade and life will become normal again. For that to happen, you need to divorce and that is exactly how most people deal with infidelity in their marriages.
• Infidelity is lonely and isolating. If you’re unfaithful, you don’t want to tell anyone for fear of being labeled bad. If you’ve been betrayed you also don’t want to tell anyone for fear of the pity or the sense of shame and the unsolicited advice. 
• It’s also hard to find a safe place or group of people you can talk to and not be told what you should do or how you should feel.
• On top of the dangers of being exposed to different sexually transmitted diseases when a partner cheats can occur.
• Being cheated on can make you feel awful, but also ill. Infidelity can lead to illness. Infidelity can develop mental illness and can also have consequences for a person’s physical health.
• The discovery of a partner’s infidelity can be a psychologically traumatic and can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) that can lead to depression, suicidal thoughts, anxiety and even flashbacks to the discovery. 
• Adultery may mean that you have to start all over again within or outside of the marriage. After years of marriage, discovering the affair can destroy you. Friends may disappear that leads you to isolation. It feels like everything you’ve worked hard for is destroyed. 
• Even if you choose to stay together, it will never be the same again. The pain gets less intense but the mind never seems to rest. Somewhere inside you have to find renewed strength to begin to redefine yourself all over again. 

Cheating can collapse even the strongest bonds and is especially dangerous because it has the power to implode your relationship. Don’t cheat on your spouse, unless you’re ready for some major consequences.

Read the source article