Sunday, 12 March 2017

Modi wins UP Assembly Elections 2017

Riding on the backdrop of bungled Demonetization, Modi & BJP secures stunning victory in the UP Assembly polls 2017 trampling opposition parties.

Here are some pertinent facts
  • BJP's massive victory of 312/403 (39.7% vote share) betters its earlier 221/423 victory of 1991 after Ramajanmabhoomi agitation but falls short Janata Party winning 352/403 (47.8% vote share) after Emergency lifting in 1977.
  • SP 47 (21.8%), Cong 7 (6.2%) and BSP 19 (22.2%), even though far exceeds BJP vote share, failed to get even 75 seats.  
  • Fragmented opposition enabled BJP trample opposition parties SP, Cong & BJP.
  • Even though Demonetization was a bungle, benefiting none, destroyed informal sector, retarded economy, Modi with charisma was able to convince gullible masses that it delivered stated objectives and black money holding rich people were having sleepless nights. In fact it was Modi who was suffering sleepless nights since Nov 8, 2016.
  • Despite economic mismanagement & fudging economic data during the past 32 months, none of the indicators are looking up especially with Banks NPAs rising & unbearable and Country's debt unmanageable, revenue deficit at ~5% and growth rate no more than 4%, ratings at near junk remain unaltered, he was able to deliver bright picture for future, which in fact was bleak.
  • Anyone making critical observation of Modi's election speeches will discover that his utterances were far from truths, his body language awkward, his promises unrealistic, his promises inconsistent with his actions and his facial expressions artificial. Yet he was able to mesmerize gullible masses including middle classes and intellectuals that his invisible magic wand will deliver his promises.  
  • In the backdrop of Babri Masjid demolition by BJP in 1992, Modi's controversial role in massacre of 2000 Muslims by Bajarangdal during Gujarat riots in 2002 when he was CM of Gujarat, Modi and BJP were hated by Muslims.
  • Massive BJP victory can not be possible without Muslims voting in large numbers, if not enmasse. The reasons for Muslims voting BJP, absence CM face, winning slogan, burden of failed demonetization, large Muslim voters 19.1%, zero Muslim candidates are minus points for BJP. Absence of anti incumbency wave, opinion & exit polls showing neck to neck contest and yet BJP winning with landslide victory is just unexplainable. The truths of this massive victory will never be known.
  • Modi's UP election promises fulfillment requires massive Rs.10+ lakh crores spending by UP Government including farmers debt waiver. Earlier Modi & co have shown plethora of rules when AP CM Chandrababu Naidu seeked RBI help in rescheduling farmer loans to be eventually paid up state government as fulfillment of his election promise. With ~5% revenue deficit and banks already sunk with NPAs, how Modi will fulfill his promise to UP farmers is to be seen. Needless to say Modi's past is promise & forget. Modi & co haven't fulfilled most of the commitments made to AP in the AP Reorganization Act 2014 and election promises are only promises not commitments.
  • While the truths resulting in this unprecedented BJP victory will never be clearly known, many theories will be written by analysts fundamentally reflects their state of mind and nothing more. Whether it is end of vote bank politics or Muslims vote shift or end of dynastic politics or shift from caste politics or something else. If BJP was so much serious for enforcing change, let them try to abolish Reservations which was one of the most abused constitutional provisions incompatible to the principles of democracy and equality. At the end of the day, for common man, it same old fight for day to day survival.
  • Unless Modi & BJP learns lessons and amend their ways of autocratic decisions, respect democracy principles and constitution in letter & spirit, discard obtaining advice of quacks and rope in experienced intellectuals in matters of public policy and administration, this country will heading for disaster. 
  • My advise to Modi is to shed hypocrisy and rule properly. Respect people on your way up because you will see the same faces on your way down. Stop baiting opponents, self aggrandizement and do some good work aligning with principles of democracy.
  • Finally, the election outcome is clearly anti-establishment, neither pro-BJP nor pro-Congress vote. Otherwise BJP & SAD would not have lost in Punjab & Goa to Congress. Wins & loses are common in elections. Neither are permanent. There is no need for so much elation. Modi too has lot of past with holes and he should introspect and improve upon. 

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, 
but you cannot fool all the people all the time ... Abraham Lincoln

PS: Indira Gandhi's massive victory during parliament midterm polls in 1971 after winning Pakistan war and liberation of Bangladesh ended up in Emergency in 1975. Absence of strong opposition is detrimental to democracy & people's interests.

Modi suffers from worst possible type of corruption; an insatiable desire for personal glory at any cost; an extremely deep moral and spiritual corruption. Modi belongs to the line of autocratic ideologues rather than the western tradition of revolutionary neo liberalism, or marxist rationalism. He also represents the worst aspect of democracy: a demagogue who caters to an irrational populace’s cravings for self-identity and release from self-responsibility. He might not have taken any bribes in recent years but there is no way he could have risen to his position without having made massive and horrendous economic & moral compromises. All his massive campaign expenses, funded by industrialist friends or party or government are eventually borne by common man.

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