Wednesday, 22 March 2017

No evidence of Muslim voted for BJP In UP

  • Despite political statements and some stories in the media, there is no evidence for that a single Muslim voted for BJP.
  • In all SEVEN Muslim majority (> 50% Muslims) constituencies in UP, SP won all seven.
  • Of 82 constituencies (>30% Muslims), the BJP won 62. Muslim vote was split between the SP and the BSP, in all these 60 constituencies, their combined vote share was higher than that of the Muslim population. It is very likely that the Muslim vote got split between the SP and the BSP.
  • So rather than strategically voting to keep the BJP out, it could be argued that UP's Muslims actually failed at strategic voting.
Massive Hindu vote polarization led to BJP's remarkable winning of 312 of 403 seats in UP Assembly elections 2017 with unprecedented 39.61% vote share. The entire Muslim votes (19.61%) were shared between SP+Cong and BSP with combined vote share in excess of 50%. Their failure to form pre-poll alliance paved way for BJP's winning, otherwise BJP's winning seats would have been below 100 mark.

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