Tuesday, 15 May 2018

Karnataka Elections 2018 - Funny result

Karnataka elections 2018's fractured verdict has some funny outcomes. BJP gets highest seats of 104 with second best popular vote of 36%, while Congress with highest popular vote of 38% gets only 78 seats. Surprisingly, JDS with popular vote share of 18% gets 37 seats will form the government with Kumaraswamy as CM. With no clear indication of voter's verdict, Congress+JDS and BJP+ JDS breakaway MLA's claim to form government.
  • Congress was quick to offer JDS (combined strength of JDS & Congress 115/222) CM position and outside support. But JDS supremo HD Deve Gowda accepting the offer with condition that Congress be part of coalition with DyCM, Speaker & 20 ministerial positions while JDS will take CM position and 14 cabinet berths. This appears sensible.
  • In SR Bommai 1994 case, SC guidelines are clear: (1) Party with clear majority (2) Pre-poll largest alliance (3) Post-poll largest alliance (4) largest party withoiut clear majority ... in the same order. While no one qualifies for position 1 & 2, Congress-JDS alliance at 115/222 comes 3rd whereas BJP being largest party 104/222 comes 4th.
  • But BJP with 104/222 MLAs will not allow JDS/Congress alliance form government so easily and sit in opposition benches. Governor is likely to invite BS Yedurappa, the leader of largest party i.e. BJP, to form government and prove majority with in 15 days on floor of the house. 
  • This will only to facilitate BJP to break JDS disgruntled group of 13-15 MLAs and join BJP. 
  • This would be murder of democracy - Governor ignoring JDS-Congress combined majority claim and inviting minority BJP to form Government without clear majority support and help them resort to horse trading.
  • Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala is a hardcore RSS person and Modi's blind follower from Gujarat and hence much decency to follow democratic principles can't be expected.
  • Now the burden on JDS and Congress to keep their elected MLAs intact and ensure vote against confidence motion on the floor of the house to bring down minority BSY government of BJP in next 15-20 days. No easy task!
  • In Hyderabad-Karnataka and Bangalore regions (total 67 seats), where most Telugu people reside ... BJP won 26 seats, Congress won 34 seats and JDS won 7 seats. BJP paid bitter price for not fulfilling AP Reorganization Act 2014 provisions and promises made by Modi and MMS in RS regarding granting Special Category Status to AP and offending Telugu people worldwide. Had Modi & BJP been fair to Telugu people ... they would have easily won another  10-12 seats in these regions and get simple majority. Too big a price paid by BJP for their rogue & dirty politics.
  • The fact that film actor Sai Kumar of BJP not only got defeated at Bagepalli constituency (30km from Hindupur) but was relegated to 4th position & lost his deposit is a matter of shame for BJP. But Modi & BJP will not learn lessons.

Had Congress and JDS formed pre-poll alliance and with combined popular vote share of 38+18=56% against BJP's 37% would have got some thing like 160/222 seats relegating BJP to insignificant status. Now they have to contend with 116/222 post poll alliance running the government on narrow majority. In the meantime BJP will resort to all sorts of unhealthy campaigns that they had penetrated into south, even though not. Rahul Gandhi had to blame himself for getting carried away by Siddaramaih's overconfidence unable encash opportunity of non-anti-incumbency in Karnataka. Rahul Gandhi learnt a very bitter lesson for his run upto to 2019 general elections to dislodge BJP-Modi at centre.

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