Saturday, 12 May 2018

Karnataka elections: Why BJP will lose?

This Karnataka poll is significant for both BJP and Congress party, ahead of general elections next year. The state is the last major bastion of the opposition Congress party, which India's ruling BJP wants to break into.
  • Loss in this election would spell disaster for the Congress party, which rules only Karnataka, Punjab, Mizoram and Puducherry. 
  • The BJP and its allies are in power in 22 of India's 29 states.
  • This election is also a crucial for the BJP, which has won in Karnataka only once before. The party has a limited or zero presence in the four other southern states, where it is unlikely to contest an election without a regional ally.
  • BJP is saddled with corruption tainted CM candidate BS Yedurappa and mining don Gali Janardhana Reddy. Without BSY & GJR, in 2013, BJP's popular vote share has plummeted from 33% to 20% compared Congress party's 37%.
  • BJP is also saddled with bad performance of PM Modi at centre in the last 4 years. He has not a single worthwhile achievement to campaign in this election. Modi focused only on wrong doings of Congress during past 70 years, which are unverifiable and distorted as well and no one is buying his arguments. In fact he has become a laughing stock.
  • With BSY and GJR back into BJP fold, BJP needs vote swing of +4% to get a simple majority (112/222) in the Assembly to oust Congress. And Congress needs a vote swing of +3% to retain the simple majority (114/222) in the Assembly. 
  • As things stands, BJP's task seems to be uphill where as Congress has to sweat a lot. This is reflected by the fact that Rahul Gandhi has spent full one month in Karnataka campaign and PM Modi has to spend full two weeks.
Modi not forming Cauvery water board, despite Supreme Court judgment, has angered 6% Tamil voters in Karnataka. Similarly not extending legitimate financial support and special category status to AP as per AP Reorganization Act 2014 has alienated 6% Telugu voters in Karnataka. With Muslims at 14%, Christians at 4%, Dalits at 18% - altogether anti-BJP / anti-Modi voters are huge 48% stand disgusted with BJP/Modi. With no Modi/BJP wave, Modi's negative performance etc how BJP will win Karnataka election, is a million dollar question.

While Rahul Gandhi's election speeches are some what dignified, Modi's speeches are third class and speaks very poorly of his stature as PM. The fact that Modi is scared of losing Karnataka election to Congress & Rahul Gandhii, with tremendous negative vibrations in Hindi heartland states UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan etc is reflected by his bankruptcy of ideas and vulgarity of speeches indicating his desperateness and fear of losing 2019 general elections. In any case, I don't see any way BJP can get even 70+ seats in Karnataka and that leaves simple majority to Congress and the JDS (self proclaimed king maker) with 30+ seats, remaining irrelevant. This victory of Congress party in Karnataka is not attributable to Siddaramaiah who was facing some kind of anti-incumbency but to the much bigger anti-incumbency of Modi in entire India. He has no respect for any other person, institution or democracy or any thing. Other than winning elections with rhetoric, money power and bull power, Modi hasn't done anything good to India. In an in depth analysis, one will discover tremendous damages to society. With Modi's reckless adventures leading to suffering of millions of farmers, poor people, unemployed youth, small businessmen etc during the past 4 years and with no regret by him so far, Modi is unfit to rule and must be consigned to trash bin. This will start with Karnataka elections and will end with General elections 2019. 

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